Notes Winter/Spring 2005

The National Committee on The National Committee on United States-China Relations United States-China Relations USTR Robert Zoellick Gives Keynote at neither side will actually materially strong non-urban consumption Annual Meeting, continued from page 2 change the exchange rate. growth, financial market loans, is not destabilizing the He applauded China’s recent innovation, liberalization of capital Chinese economy and that others’ efforts that allow foreign banks, outflows, and more regulatory concern over inflation is “somewhat foreign investment banks, and constraints on fixed investment. I USTR Young Leaders AIDS Expert overstated.” Added Malpass: “My other types of institutions to do expect the currency to remain Robert Zoellick Gather at Third Dr. David Ho expectation is that there will business directly in China. Such relatively stable and trade tensions Gives Keynote Annual Forum Speaks at Public continue to be massive non- liberalization in the financial system to increase a bit as the U.S. at Annual Health Program performing loans, and that the encourages China’s private sector to continues to run a large bilateral Meeting system will continue to be stable.” flourish, as it can be used to bypass trade deficit with China.” On China’s pegged exchange the state-owned banking system. Following the panelists’ rate, he suggested that changing the Malpass concluded his remarks remarks, John L. Holden, National yuan/dollar exchange rate would with a review of where he thought Committee president, moderated a 3821 pose difficulties for both the United current trends were heading: “Fast lively discussion that engaged all NOTES States and China – to a degree that GDP growth, higher interest rates, three panelists and the audience. ■ The National Committee on United States-China Relations NON-PROFIT ORG. 71 West 23rd Street, 19th Floor U.S. POSTAGE New York, NY 10010-4102 Paid New York, NY Permit No. 1598 New Program: U.S.-China Student Leaders Exchange 4 Winter / Spring 2005 Volume 33, Number 1 A MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT Productive U.S.-China relations can never be taken for granted. Wise leadership in both countries is required to prevent unexpected events, such as the United States’ mistaken bombing of 2 Reflections on My Tenure China’s Belgrade embassy and the collision of a Chinese jet fighter with an American reconnaissance aircraft off Hainan Island, from spiraling out of Stepping down after nearly seven years in control. A review of the past four decades the post, National Committee president of Sino-American interaction leads an John Holden notes that the Committee’s work optimist like me to claim that the remains as vital as ever relationship is robust enough (and leadership good enough) to withstand The National Committee has, for support of so many others: Barber major shocks; another observer might say, nearly four decades, played important Conable and Carla Hills, Committee however, that it will only be a matter of roles in helping build bridges of chairs during my tenure, and our time before an event is so big – or is understanding between the United outstanding cast of directors, members, handled so poorly – that a crisis becomes NOTES States and China, and it has been an and friends who have helped us in so a disaster. honor to have been part many ways. We’ve But what concerns me today is not the of its work. In this, my also been fortunate to likelihood of a single event precipitating last message in have had the support disaster in U.S.-China relations; instead, NOTES, I would like to of many American it is the possibility of unresolved issues offer brief observations corporations far- accumulating in number and intensity to on some of the people, sighted enough to the point that they reach a critical mass events, and issues that understand the value and set off a chain reaction. From an I have encountered of our work, and of the American perspective, the two countries during my tenure as U. S. government need to make significant progress on such president. agencies that have sensitive matters as North Korean nuclear We have been appreciated how the weapons, China’s growing trade surplus Right: extremely fortunate Committee can help with the United States, and related John L. Holden over the years that so them achieve their questions such as the Chinese currency’s at the 2003 Young many talented and programmatic goals. pegged exchange rate and intellectual Leaders Forum held engaging people have And we are grateful to property rights violations. Although not at Huangshan. been willing to work so the foundations – a bilateral issue, growing tensions in hard for the Committee. Space does not Ford, Freeman, Luce, and Starr, in Japan-China and cross-Strait relations is permit me to mention them all, but I particular – whose ongoing unrestricted also a matter of concern to the United must single out vice presidents Jan Berris and project funding has been so States. and Ros Daly. Jan has been with us since important. Whether China and America can 1971; what is most remarkable about her Furthermore, Sino-American relations continue to maintain a successful is not the longevity of her service or the would not have advanced to where they relationship – one that identifies and legions of people she knows, but the are today without the efforts of a great addresses mutual interests and resolves or passion, integrity, and dynamism she many talented and perceptive Chinese finesses competing ones – is a question brings to her work day in and day out. Jan policymakers, educators, and analysts; it that will have major bearing on the is a marvelous resource and key to the has been my privilege to have worked prospects for world peace and prosperity success of the Committee’s programs. with many of them. this century. Leaders in China and the Since 1979, Ros Daly has worked behind As we look ahead, I am confident that United States, from both inside and the scenes with great dedication to the National Committee initiatives such as outside of government, must find ways to myriad administrative and financial tasks the Student Leaders Exchange (see page make progress on the above matters so that help the organization accomplish so 4), the Young Leaders Forum (see page that the overall calculus of U.S.-China much with so little. Ros’s contributions 8), the Foreign Policy Colloquium (see relations remains positive. The National in the “boiler room” of the organization page 12), the Teachers Exchange Committee on U.S.-China Relations’ earn her the moniker “Unsung Heroine Program (see page 19), and the newly unique capabilities ensure that it will of the National Committee.” It has been announced Public Intellectuals Program continue to make important contributions a delight working with Jan and Ros, and (see our website) will enable younger toward this end. In the years ahead, with the other extremely dedicated generations of Americans and Chinese to although I will no longer be involved as members of the Committee team. find new ways of building mutually president, I look forward to doing what I The National Committee could not beneficial relations between the two can to help. ■ have achieved what it has without the countries. Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, and China’s other new leaders; and the major policy changes Members’ Bookshelf USTR Robert Zoellick Gives under the Hu administration. He believes that, in two short years as party secretary, Hu Jintao has capably moved 26 Keynote at Annual Meeting out from under Jiang Zemin’s shadow and 3 has demonstrated his political wisdom Below is just a partial listing of the Bob Sutter, China’s Rise in Asia: Promises Security Studies / and skill, often by “making major policy NOTES many books National Committee and Perils (Rowman and Littlefield, International Relations moves that deliberately confuse some members have authored over the past 2005). Panel of experts assesses China’s recent political potential critics, both at home and year. For an expanded Members’ Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, ed., Dangerous abroad.” Calling the Hu-Wen team “the Bookshelf going back to 2000, please visit Madeleine Zelin, Jonathan K. Ocko, and and economic developments Strait: The US-Taiwan-China Crisis most capable leadership in PRC history,” our website. Committee members who Robert Gardella, Contract and Property in (Columbia University Press, 2005). he suggested that it is the Western have additions to the web listings and/or Early Modern China (Stanford University U.S. Trade Representative Robert B. movement toward a multi-party system, media’s analysis of the China’s leadership, submissions for the next edition of Press, 2004). Zoellick and a panel of distinguished at least not for the next few decades. Richard C. Bush, At Cross Purposes: U.S.- and not the leadership itself, that has the NOTES may contact Jonathan Lowet China specialists addressed nearly 200 China’s leaders will opt instead to look for Taiwan Relations Since 1942 (M.E. Sharpe, greater shortcomings. ([email protected]). National Committee members and ways to make the current government Public Affairs and Administration 2004). invited guests at the annual Members and party more efficient, transparent, and Li suggested that the era of strongman Meeting – fortuitously timed for responsive to the needs of the people. politics in China is over and that NOTES Yong Deng and Fei-ling Wang, eds., China collective leadership is the new norm. As Laurence J. C. Ma and Fulong Wu, eds., November 10, between the 2004 U.S. Lieberthal remarked that at present, Rising: Power and Motivation in Chinese evidence, he pointed out that each of the Restructuring the Chinese City: Changing Presidential elections and the APEC all suggested reforms are aimed at Business / Economics Foreign Policy (Rowman and Littlefield, five most important leadership bodies in Society, Economy and Space (Routledge, Leaders Summit – to address pressing reducing or removing the political 2005).

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