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Looking for the Right Path. Technology Dynamics, Inventive Strategies And

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Looking for the Right Path. Technology Dynamics, Inventive Strategies And ISBN 978 94 6159 511 9 © copyright Giorgio Triulzi, Maastricht 2015 Printing: Datawyse / Universitaire Pers Maastricht Cover illustration by Juan Sebastian Taborda (for inquiry: [email protected]) LOOKING FOR THE RIGHT PATH Technology Dynamics, Inventive Strategies and Catching-up in the Semiconductor Industry DISSERTATION to obtain the degree of Doctor at Maastricht University, on the authority of the Rector Magnificus Prof. dr. L.L.G. Soete, in accordance with the decision of the Board of Deans, to be defended in public on Wednesday 16th December 2015, at 09:45 hours by Giorgio Triulzi Supervisor Prof. Dr. Bart Verspagen Co-supervisor Dr. Önder Nomaler Assessment Committee Prof. Dr. Robin Cowan (Chair) Prof. Dr. Koen Frenken (Utrecht University) Prof. Dr. Franco Malerba (Bocconi University) Dr. Lili Wang To Jennifer, my parents and my sister CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION: COMPLEXITY, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND CATCHING UP ............................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS ..............................................................................5 2 TECHNOLOGICAL AND INDUSTRIAL EVOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY........................................................................................... 9 2.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................................. 10 2.2 TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS AND CATCHING-UP.......................................................... 10 2.3 ARE SUCCESSFUL CATCHING-UP COUNTRIES SPECIAL? ........................................................................................ 15 2.3.1 Similarities and differences of initial conditions ........................................................................................ 15 2.3.2 Sources of technical improvements................................................................................................................... 17 2.3.3 Speed of technical improvements ...................................................................................................................... 19 2.4 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................................................. 20 3 ENGINEERING TRAJECTORIES, RANKING OF DESIGN PROBLEMS AND CATCHING-UP ..................................................................................................................... 23 3.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................................. 24 3.2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ....................................................................................................................................... 25 3.3 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................................................. 30 3.3.1 Identification of technically influent patents and of the main paths of technical solutions .. 30 3.3.2 Measuring the ranking of the system of engineering problems and the stability of problem-solving approaches ................................................................................................................................ 32 3.3.3 Measuring centrality on the paths of engineering improvements ..................................................... 33 3.3.4 Measuring path-following, path-changing, ranking-following and ranking-changing propensity ..................................................................................................................................................................... 35 3.4 DATA ................................................................................................................................................................................. 38 3.4.1 Descriptive statistics of the Network of Main Paths.................................................................................. 38 3.5 FINDINGS ......................................................................................................................................................................... 40 3.5.1 Direction of technological change ..................................................................................................................... 40 3.5.2 Players’ inventive strategies ................................................................................................................................. 48 3.5.3 Effectiveness of players’ strategies .................................................................................................................... 51 3.6 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................................................. 52 4 LIFE CYCLE OF TECHNOLOGY DOMAINS AND COMPARATIVE TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE...................................................................................... 55 4.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................................. 56 4.2 TECHNOLOGY AND INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS OF THE GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY ...................... 58 4.3 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ....................................................................................................................................... 62 4.4 METHODOLOGY AND PRELIMINARY DATA ANALYSIS .......................................................................................... 66 4.4.1 Identification of technologically influent patents ...................................................................................... 67 4.4.2 Grouping technologically influent patents into technology domains ............................................... 69 4.4.3 Characterizing technology domains according to their life cycle stage .......................................... 70 4.4.4 Measuring comparative technological advantage along the life-cycle ........................................... 76 4.5 FINDINGS ......................................................................................................................................................................... 78 4.5.1 New and incumbent innovators’ revealed technological advantage ................................................ 79 4.5.2 Countries’ revealed technological advantage .............................................................................................. 81 4.6 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................. 85 5 DO I FIT? INNOVATIVE SURVIVAL, TECHNOLOGY DYNAMICS AND THE EVOLUTION OF KNOWLEDGE ........................................................................................ 87 5.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................................. 88 5.2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND RESEARCH HYPOTHESES ................................................................................ 90 5.3 DATA PREPARATION AND DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................................. 95 5.3.1 Identification of influential patents and core innovators....................................................................... 95 5.3.2 Identification of Semiconductor technology domains ........................................................................... 100 5.4 MODEL ........................................................................................................................................................................... 101 5.5 MEASUREMENT OF THE KEY VARIABLES .............................................................................................................. 103 5.5.1 Knowledge persistence ......................................................................................................................................... 104 5.5.2 Firms’ knowledge breadth and depth ........................................................................................................... 107 5.5.3 Measures of knowledge modularity ............................................................................................................... 109 5.5.4 Control variables..................................................................................................................................................... 110 5.6 TRENDS OF KNOWLEDGE MODULARITY AND PERSISTENCE ............................................................................. 110 5.7 ECONOMETRIC ISSUES ............................................................................................................................................... 111 5.8 FINDINGS ...................................................................................................................................................................... 116 5.9 CONCLUSIONS .............................................................................................................................................................. 128 6 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................
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