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Presentation to UBS Australian Resources Alumina Limited UBS Australian Resources, Energy & Utilities Conference Sydney – June 2009 John Bevan Chief Executive Officer Disclaimer This presentation is not a prospectus or an offer of securities for subscription or sale in any jurisdiction. Some statements in this presentation are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements also include those containing such words as “anticipate”, “estimates”, “should”, “will”, “expects”, plans” or similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual outcomes to be different from the forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ from the forward- looking statements include: (a) material adverse changes in global economic, alumina or aluminium industry conditions and the markets served by AWAC; (b) changes in production and development costs and production levels or to sales agreements; (c) changes in laws or regulations or policies; (d) changes in alumina and aluminium prices and currency exchange rates; (e) constraints on the availability of bauxite; and (f) the risk factors and other factors summarised in Alumina’s June 2008 Half-Yearly ASX Report filed on Form 6-K and Alumina’s Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2008. Forward-looking statements that reference past trends or activities should not be taken as a representation that such trends or activities will necessarily continue in the future. Alumina Limited does not undertake any obligations to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements which speak only as of the date of the relevant document. 2 Economic Outlook Has recovery started? Chinese PMI and Industrial Production OECD PMI and Industrial Production 60 30% 60 30% 25% 25% 55 55 20% 20% 50 15% 50 15% 10% 10% 45 45 5% 5% PMI Index PMI Index 40 0% IP: % change yoy change IP: % 40 0% yoy change IP: % -5% -5% Chinese PMI - forward 5M EU/USA/Japan PMI – forward 5m 35 35 Chinese IP -10% OECD IP -10% 30 -15% 30 -15% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3 Source: EcoWin, Reuters, Macquarie Research, May 2009 Market Rebound – Equities ■ Cyclical companies leveraged to an upturn Indexed performance of cyclicals vs defensives 10 0 Defensives outperform by 10 0 24.5ppts 90 90 80 80 Cyclicals outperform by 40.5ppts 70 70 60 60 Defensives Cyclicals 50 50 40 40 Dec-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 4 Source: IRESS, 25May 2009 Market Rebound – Commodities ■ Significant recovery across all base metals since March lows ■ Having recovered from early year losses, Aluminium is up 26% since 1 March 2009 Commodity Price Performance Since 1 March 2009 180 160 140 120 Commodity(Rebased) Price 100 80 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Aluminium Nickel Copper Zinc Lead 5 Source: IRESS, 10 June 2009 Aluminium Price – A Reflection of Weak Demand and High LME Stocks ■ Demand still likely to be down 7% on 2008 Alumina and Aluminium Spot Price Aluminium Price 4,500 160.0 3500 700 4,000 140.0 3000 600 3,500 120.0 2500 500 3,000 100.0 2000 400 2,500 kt 80.0 US$/lb 1500 300 2,000 60.0 Alumina Spot (US$/t) Alumina Aluminium LME (US$/t) 1,500 1000 200 40.0 1,000 500 100 500 20.0 0 0 - 0.0 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 LME total stock (LHS) Aluminium Alumina LME 3-month closing price (RHS) 6 Source: Bloomberg, IRESS Aluminium: China Deficit – West Surplus 2009E Aluminium Supply / Demand Balance (in kmt) China in Deficit Western World in Surplus Jan-Mar 09 Primary production Run Jan-Mar 09 Primary production Run 10,735 24,207 Rate (annualised) Rate (annualised) Announced restarts to be Announced curtailment to be 1,605 (1,051) implemented Apr-Dec 09 implemented Apr-Dec 09 Supply 12,340 Supply 23,156 Demand (0% yoy change) (13,100) Demand (-10% yoy change) (21,400) Deficit (760) Surplus 1,756 Imports from Western World 700 Exports to China (700) Net Deficit (60) Net Surplus 1,056 7 Source: Alcoa Alumina Market Balance in 2009… ■ Global alumina market estimated to be in equilibrium in 2009 ▬ Driven by lack of Chinese self-sufficiency 2009 Alumina Global Supply-Demand Balance Supply = Demand 80000 52,600 70000 (2 ,5 0 0 ) 64,900 64,900 43,800 (4 ,2 0 0 ) 60000 50000 40000 30000 21,100 19,000 20000 10000 0 China Ex-China China Ex-China Global Supply Global Ex-China China Demand Production Production Curtailments Curtailments Demand Demand 8 Source: Alcoa Analyst Conference Presentation, 1Q 2009 Near and Long Term Catalysts Catalysts for Aluminium Industry Growth Near Term Long Term China Supply/demand balance New Applications Consumer electronics Infrastructure investment Aluminium bottle Energy Oil & Gas Curtailment Continued execution of Demographics Global Population Growth announced curtailments – 2006: 6.6 billion Expect additional curtailments in – 2024: 7.9 billion Summer – 2050: 9.1 billion De-Stocking Unsustainable levels Urbanisation Population Living in Cities Rapid drawdown of inventories – 2006: >50% when economy rebounds – 2030: >60% Stimulus Programs Alternative fuel efficient buses Environment Energy consumption up 54% by 2025 New construction Person Transport rates +40% by Transmission lines for grid 2030 Greenhouse gas regulation Source: United Nations, World Health Organisation, World Bank, UNEP (United Nations Environment Program, 9 FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations), Max Planck Institute What is AWAC? ■ World’s largest alumina producer, accounting for 17% of world production Joint Venture Structure Major Alumina Producers 2008 17% Alumina Alcoa Inc 13% 13% Limited 11% 40% 60% 5% 4% 4% 3% AWAC JV AWACAWAC UC Rusal Chalco Rio/Alcan BHP Weiqiao Xinfa Vale Billiton Textile Aluminium Group Electrical 10 AWAC – The Global Bauxite & Alumina Business ■ Global reach with close proximity to emerging markets, including China ■ Development in Brazil is expanding AWAC’s asset base and enhancing long term capacity and cash cost position San Ciprian Point Comfort Jamalco Guinea Suralco MRN Sao Luis Kwinana Juruti Huntly Pinjarra Portland Bauxite Mines Willowdale Point Henry Refineries Wagerup Smelters 11 Expansion Capital Nears Completion ■ Alumina’s share of growth capex in Brazil during 2009 is US$300m ■ Projects on schedule to commence 3Q 2009 ■ Project includes development of new mine and infrastructure, and expansion of refinery 12 Long Term Returns Based on AWAC’s Competitive Cost Position ■ AWAC is producing at approximately the 30th percentile of industry participants AWAC 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 Production (kt/a) 13 Source: © Brook Hunt and Associates Ltd 2009 Strong Historical Profitability ■ AWAC’s EBITDA margins have been robust through previous cyclical lows ▬ Margin maintained at 20%+ levels for the last seven years AWAC EBITDA margins 33% 1400 35% 28% 29% 1200 26% 30% 25% 24% 1000 21% 25% 800 20% US$m 600 1419 15% 903 400 802 10% 661 651 516 586 200 5% 0 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 AWAC Cash from Operating Activities EBITDA Margin 14 Source: AWAC Accounts Historically Consistent Refining EBITDA/Production Margins – takes longer for costs to adjust ■ AWAC’s* refining business has achieved consistent EBITDA/production margins ▬ Average refining EBITDA margins of US$77/mt produced over the last six years Refining EBITDA/production margins 200 3,000 180 2,500 160 140 2,000 120 -49% 100 1,500 US$/mt US$/mt 80 8 months 111 1,000 60 104 75 40 71 83 500 52 20 45 0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Refining EBITDA / mt Margins Average LME aluminium price / mt * This includes Pocos De Caldas and Alcoa’s share of Sao Luis not included in the AWAC JV 15 Source: Alcoa AWAC Refinery Operating Performance Cost Reduction – Tracking Ahead of Internal Targets Cost of Alumina Produced Global Caustic Spot Price (Cash Cost $ / mt) ($ / dry mt) Caustic (spot ave) 100% -32% 1,000.0 -38% 75% 800.0 68% 62% 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 3Q '08A Target 1Q '09E 4Q '09E Jan-2008 May-2008 Sep-2008 Jan-2009 May-2009 1Q '09E US Gulf NEast Asia 16 Source: Alcoa Alumina is strongly placed in the event of continued pressure in debt and commodity markets ■ Rights issue 2Q09 raised approx net A$954m ■ Funds raised have been used to repay bank debt ■ Effectively removed refinancing risk of debt facilities maturing in 2010 ■ Company retains fully drawn convertible bond US$350m and current net cash position ■ Sufficient undrawn committed facilities 17 Concluding Remarks ■ Long term outlook for aluminium industry remains solid ■ AWAC strategically well positioned ■ Recent capital raising received high level of investor support, and has effectively removed any refinancing risk for calendar year 2010 18 Alumina Limited UBS Australian Resources, Energy & Utilities Conference Sydney – June 2009 John Bevan Chief Executive Officer.
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