Principles of MACROECONOMICS an Open Text by Douglas Curtis and Ian Irvine

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Principles of MACROECONOMICS an Open Text by Douglas Curtis and Ian Irvine with Open Texts Principles of MACROECONOMICS an Open Text by Douglas Curtis and Ian Irvine VERSION 2017 – REVISION B ADAPTABLE | ACCESSIBLE | AFFORDABLE Creative Commons License (CC BY-NC-SA) advancing learning Champions of Access to Knowledge OPEN TEXT ONLINE ASSESSMENT All digital forms of access to our high- We have been developing superior on- quality open texts are entirely FREE! All line formative assessment for more than content is reviewed for excellence and is 15 years. Our questions are continuously wholly adaptable; custom editions are pro- adapted with the content and reviewed for duced by Lyryx for those adopting Lyryx as- quality and sound pedagogy. To enhance sessment. Access to the original source files learning, students receive immediate per- is also open to anyone! sonalized feedback. Student grade reports and performance statistics are also provided. SUPPORT INSTRUCTOR SUPPLEMENTS Access to our in-house support team is avail- Additional instructor resources are also able 7 days/week to provide prompt resolu- freely accessible. Product dependent, these tion to both student and instructor inquiries. supplements include: full sets of adaptable In addition, we work one-on-one with in- slides and lecture notes, solutions manuals, structors to provide a comprehensive sys- and multiple choice question banks with an tem, customized for their course. This can exam building tool. include adapting the text, managing multi- ple sections, and more! Contact Lyryx Today! [email protected] advancing learning Principles of Macroeconomics an Open Text by Douglas Curtis and Ian Irvine Version 2017 — Revision B BE A CHAMPION OF OER! Contribute suggestions for improvements, new content, or errata: A new topic A new example An interesting new question Any other suggestions to improve the material Contact Lyryx at [email protected] with your ideas. Lyryx Learning Team Bruce Bauslaugh Martha Laflamme Peter Chow Jennifer MacKenzie Nathan Friess Tamsyn Murnaghan Stephanie Keyowski Bogdan Sava Claude Laflamme Ryan Yee LICENSE Creative Commons License (CC BY-NC-SA): This text, including the art and illustrations, are available under the Creative Commons license (CC BY-NC-SA), allowing anyone to reuse, revise, remix and redistribute the text. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ advancing learning Principles of Macroeconomics an Open Text by Douglas Curtis and Ian Irvine Base Text Revision History Current Revision: Version2017 — RevisionB Edits and revisions have been completed by the authors together with the editorial staff at Lyryx Learning. All new content (text and images) is released under the same license as noted above. • Data, tables, and figures have been updated to the latest available data. Example calculations of indicators of economic conditions and performance, such as growth rates, inflation rates, unem- ployment rates, and interest rates are now based on current data. Applications and discussions have been edited to discuss and comment on these current observations. • New content is added, including zero-sum games and market design, E-payments, E-money, and Fintech. • Chapters 4, 7, & 11: Discussions of fiscal and monetary policy have been revised to take account of changes in energy and commodity prices, and the change in the federal government budgetary 2017 B policy as these are reflected in the updated data on both economic activity and policy indicators. • Chapter 11: The explanation of the control of the public debt ratio has been simplified to em- phasize the importance of the primary budget balance, the interest rate on the public debt and the growth rate of GDP. The importance of the shift from a balanced budget target to a debt ratio constraint for evaluating federal government budget policy is noted. • Chapter 13: Includes a new discussion of the structural changes in output and employment that are integral to economic growth and the effects of growth on per capita real GDP. Employment by sector data illustrate the recent pattern of change in goods sector-service sector employment. 2017 A • Front matter has been updated including cover, copyright, and revision pages. Table of Contents Table of Contents iii About the Authors 1 Part One: The Building Blocks 5 1 Introduction to key ideas 7 1.1 What’s it all about? .................................. 7 1.2 Understanding through the use of models ...................... 11 1.3 Opportunity cost and the market ........................... 12 1.4 A model of exchange and specialization ....................... 13 1.5 Economy-wide production possibilities ....................... 17 1.6 Aggregate output, growth and business cycles .................... 19 Conclusion ......................................... 24 Key Concepts ........................................ 25 Exercises for Chapter 1 ................................... 26 2 Theories, data and beliefs 29 2.1 Data analysis ..................................... 29 iii iv Table of Contents 2.2 Data, theory and economic models .......................... 35 2.3 Ethics, efficiency and beliefs ............................. 38 Key Concepts ........................................ 42 Exercises for Chapter 2 ................................... 43 3 The classical marketplace – demand and supply 45 3.1 The marketplace – trading .............................. 45 3.2 The market’s building blocks ............................. 46 3.3 Demand and supply curves .............................. 50 3.4 Non-price influences on demand ........................... 51 3.5 Non-price influences on supply ............................ 55 3.6 Simultaneous supply and demand impacts ...................... 58 3.7 Market interventions – governments and interest groups ............... 59 3.8 Individual and market functions ........................... 65 3.9 Useful techniques – demand and supply equations .................. 66 Conclusion ......................................... 67 Key Concepts ........................................ 68 Exercises for Chapter 3 ................................... 70 Part Two: Introduction to Macroeconomics 73 4 Economic activity & performance 75 4.1 Macroeconomic performance ............................. 76 4.2 Canadian economic performance ........................... 82 v 4.3 National accounts ................................... 85 4.4 Measuring GDP .................................... 87 4.5 Nominal GDP, real GDP & the GDP deflator ..................... 91 4.6 Per capita real GDP .................................. 94 Conclusion ......................................... 97 Key Concepts ........................................ 98 Exercises for Chapter 4 ................................... 99 5 Output, business cycles, growth & employment 103 5.1 Aggregate demand & aggregate supply ........................103 5.2 Equilibrium output and potential output .......................110 5.3 Growth in potential output ..............................111 5.4 Business cycles and output gaps ...........................112 5.5 Output gaps and unemployment rates .........................115 5.6 Adjustments to output gaps? .............................116 5.7 The role of macroeconomic policy ..........................117 Key Concepts ........................................119 Exercises for Chapter 5 ...................................120 6 Aggregate expenditure & aggregate demand 123 6.1 Short-run aggregate demand and output .......................124 6.2 Aggregate expenditure ................................126 6.3 Aggregate expenditure and equilibrium output in the short run ...........133 6.4 The multiplier: Changes in aggregate expenditure and equilibrium output . .137 vi Table of Contents 6.5 Equilibrium output and the AD curve ........................141 Key Concepts ........................................146 Exercises for Chapter 6 ...................................147 7 The government sector 151 7.1 Government in Canada ................................152 7.2 Government expenditure & taxes ...........................154 7.3 The government’s budget function ..........................160 7.4 Fiscal policy & government budget balances .....................163 7.5 Automatic and discretionary fiscal policy ......................168 7.6 The public debt and the budget balance ........................171 7.7 Aggregate demand & equilibrium output .......................174 Key Concepts ........................................177 Exercises for Chapter 7 ...................................179 Part Three: Financial Markets & Economic Activity 183 8 Money, banking & money supply 185 8.1 Money and the functions of money ..........................185 8.2 Measures of the Canadian money supply .......................189 8.3 Banking in Canada today ...............................191 8.4 Money created by banks ...............................196 8.5 The monetary base and the money supply ......................200 Key Concepts ........................................206 vii Exercises for Chapter 8 ...................................208 9 Financial markets, interest rates, foreign exchange rates&AD 209 9.1 Portfolio choices between money and other assets ..................210 9.2 The demand for money balances ...........................213 9.3 Financial market equilibrium & interest rates ....................217 9.4 Interest rates and foreign exchange rates .......................220 9.5 Interest rates, exchange rates, and aggregate demand ................221 9.6 The transmission mechanism .............................227
Recommended publications
  • The National Income Multiplier: Its Theory Its Philosophy Its Utility
    University of Montana ScholarWorks at University of Montana Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers Graduate School 1959 The national income multiplier: Its theory its philosophy its utility John Colin Jones The University of Montana Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.umt.edu/etd Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Jones, John Colin, "The national income multiplier: Its theory its philosophy its utility" (1959). Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers. 8768. https://scholarworks.umt.edu/etd/8768 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at ScholarWorks at University of Montana. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks at University of Montana. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE NATIOHAL INCOME MULTIPLIER; ITS THEORY, ITS PHILOSOPHY, ITS UTILITY J» COLIN H. JONES B.A. University of WaJes^ U.C.W., Aberystwyth, 195Ô Presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY 1959 Approved by: , Board of Examiners Dean, Graduate School AUG 6 1959 D a te UMI Number: EP39569 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. UMI Dis»art«t)on Publishsng UMI EP39569 Published by ProQuest LLC (2013).
    [Show full text]
  • The Neoclassical Synthesis
    Department of Economics- FEA/USP In Search of Lost Time: The Neoclassical Synthesis MICHEL DE VROEY PEDRO GARCIA DUARTE WORKING PAPER SERIES Nº 2012-07 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, FEA-USP WORKING PAPER Nº 2012-07 In Search of Lost Time: The Neoclassical Synthesis Michel De Vroey ([email protected]) Pedro Garcia Duarte ([email protected]) Abstract: Present day macroeconomics has been sometimes dubbed as the new neoclassical synthesis, suggesting that it constitutes a reincarnation of the neoclassical synthesis of the 1950s. This has prompted us to examine the contents of the ‘old’ and the ‘new’ neoclassical syntheses. Our main conclusion is that the latter bears little resemblance with the former. Additionally, we make three points: (a) from its origins with Paul Samuelson onward the neoclassical synthesis notion had no fixed content and we bring out four main distinct meanings; (b) its most cogent interpretation, defended e.g. by Solow and Mankiw, is a plea for a pluralistic macroeconomics, wherein short-period market non-clearing models would live side by side with long-period market-clearing models; (c) a distinction should be drawn between first and second generation new Keynesian economists as the former defend the old neoclassical synthesis while the latter, with their DSGE models, adhere to the Lucasian view that macroeconomics should be based on a single baseline model. Keywords: neoclassical synthesis; new neoclassical synthesis; DSGE models; Paul Samuelson; Robert Lucas JEL Codes: B22; B30; E12; E13 1 IN SEARCH OF LOST TIME: THE NEOCLASSICAL SYNTHESIS Michel De Vroey1 and Pedro Garcia Duarte2 Introduction Since its inception, macroeconomics has witnessed an alternation between phases of consensus and dissent.
    [Show full text]
  • The History of Macroeconomics from Keynes's General Theory to The
    The History of Macroeconomics from Keynes’s General Theory to the Present M. De Vroey and P. Malgrange Discussion Paper 2011-28 The History of Macroeconomics from Keynes’s General Theory to the Present Michel De Vroey and Pierre Malgrange ◊ June 2011 Abstract This paper is a contribution to the forthcoming Edward Elgar Handbook of the History of Economic Analysis volume edited by Gilbert Faccarello and Heinz Kurz. Its aim is to introduce the reader to the main episodes that have marked the course of modern macroeconomics: its emergence after the publication of Keynes’s General Theory, the heydays of Keynesian macroeconomics based on the IS-LM model, disequilibrium and non-Walrasian equilibrium modelling, the invention of the natural rate of unemployment notion, the new classical attack against Keynesian macroeconomics, the first wave of new Keynesian models, real business cycle modelling and, finally, the second wage of new Keynesian models, i.e. DSGE models. A main thrust of the paper is the contrast we draw between Keynesian macroeconomics and stochastic dynamic general equilibrium macroeconomics. We hope that our paper will be useful for teachers of macroeconomics wishing to complement their technical material with a historical addendum. Keywords: Keynes, Lucas, IS-LM model, DSGE models JEL classification: B 22, E 10, E 20, E 30 ◊ IRES, Louvain University and CEPREMAP, Paris. Correspondence address : [email protected] The authors are grateful to Liam Graham for his comments on an earlier version of the paper. 1 Introduction Our aim in this paper is to introduce the reader to the main episodes that have marked the course of macroeconomics.
    [Show full text]
  • On the Concept of Nudging: Its Coherence and Applicability?
    On the Concept of Nudging: Its Coherence and Applicability? Mads Wistrup Freund September 15, 2017 25-June-1993-xxxx MSc in Business Administration and Philosophy Vejleder: Marius Gudman Høyer 1 Abstract The practice of nudging has attracted attention from researchers, policymakers, and practitioners alike. The contemporary interest in nudging has sparked demands for a clearer examination of the conditions under which nudging and other behavioral methods can be used efficiently and acceptable. There are several unresolved questions which may have contributed to heated political and scientific discussions, especially heated is the ethical discussion of applying nudging in the public policy domain. This thesis concentrate on the philosophical premises nudges are built on. It is argued that the model is philosophically problematic. Different interventions might operate through various logics that threaten not only effectiveness but also representativeness and ethical ends. This thesis aruges that the next step in advancing the acceptability nudging requires a clarification. The thesis investi- gates the internal logic of this practice by exploring the expositions and implications within the literature on nudging in public policy, by specifically exploring its origins in behavioral economics; its impact on welfare policy; and ethical implications. This analysis is guided by Foucaults concept of veridiction and understanding of power. This thesis concludes that nudging would be more acceptable if it clarified that humans, in these models, are treated as defective econs. Choice architects are trying to represent the complex reality of hu- man judgment and decision-making with the inclusion of psychology in a highly simplified normative modeling framework, to increase individuals tendency to act according to neo- classical rational choice models.
    [Show full text]
  • How Do Income and the Debt Position of Households Propagate Public Into Private Spending?
    University of Heidelberg Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series No. 676 How Do Income and the Debt Position of Households Propagate Public into Private Spending? Sebastian K. Rüth and Camilla Simon February 2020 How Do Income and the Debt Position of Households Propagate Public into Private Spending? Sebastian K. R¨uth Camilla Simon∗ February 21, 2020 Abstract We study the household sector's post-tax income and debt position as prop- agation mechanisms of public into private spending, in postwar U.S. data. In structural VARs, we obtain the consumption \crowding-in puzzle" for surges in public spending and show this consumption response to be accompanied by a persistent increase in disposable income. Endogenously reacting income, however, is insufficient to rationalize conditional comovement of private and public spending: once we hypothetically force (dis)aggregate measures of in- come to their pre-shock paths, consumption still rises. Corroborating these findings within an external-instruments-identified VAR, which constitutes an adequate laboratory for the simultaneous interplay of financial and macroe- conomic time-series, we provide causal evidence of fiscal stimulus prompting households to take on more credit. This favorable debt cycle is paralleled by dropping interest rates, narrowing credit spreads, and inflating collat- eral prices, e.g., real estate prices, suggesting that softening borrowing con- straints support the accumulation of debt and help rationalizing the absence of crowding-out. Keywords: Government spending shock, household income, household in- debtedness, credit spread, external instrument, fiscal foresight. JEL codes: E30, E62, G51, H31. ∗Respectively: Heidelberg University, Alfred-Weber-Institute for Economics, phone: +49 6221 54 2943, e-mail: [email protected] (corresponding author); University of W¨urzburg,Department of Economics, phone: +49 931 31 85036, e-mail: camilla.simon@uni- wuerzburg.de.
    [Show full text]
  • "The Macroeconomics of Happiness." (Pdf)
    The Macroeconomics of Happiness Author(s): Rafael Di Tella, Robert J. MacCulloch and Andrew J. Oswald Source: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 85, No. 4 (Nov., 2003), pp. 809-827 Published by: The MIT Press Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/3211807 Accessed: 25-11-2019 16:44 UTC JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at https://about.jstor.org/terms The MIT Press is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Review of Economics and Statistics This content downloaded from 206.253.207.235 on Mon, 25 Nov 2019 16:44:09 UTC All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms THE MACROECONOMICS OF HAPPINESS Rafael Di Tella, Robert J. MacCulloch, and Andrew J. Oswald* Abstract-We show that macroeconomic movements have omitted strong from effects economists' standard calculations of the cost on the happiness of nations. First, we find that there are clear microeco- of cyclical downturns. nomic patterns in the psychological well-being levels of a quarter of a million randomly sampled Europeans and Americans from In thespite 1970s of a longto tradition studying aggregate economic the 1990s. Happiness equations are monotonically increasing fluctuations, in income, there is disagreement among economists about and have similar structure in different countries.
    [Show full text]
  • Macroeconomics and Politics
    This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3 Volume Author/Editor: Stanley Fischer, editor Volume Publisher: MIT Press Volume ISBN: 0-262-06119-8 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/fisc88-1 Publication Date: 1988 Chapter Title: Macroeconomics and Politics Chapter Author: Alberto Alesina Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c10951 Chapter pages in book: (p. 13 - 62) AlbertoAlesina GSIACARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY AND NBER Macroeconomics and Politics Introduction "Social planners" and "representative consumers" do not exist. The recent game-theoretic literature on macroeconomic policy has set the stage for going beyond this stylized description of policymaking and building more realistic positive models of economic policy. In this literature, the policy- maker strategically interacts with other current and/or future policymakers and with the public; his behavior is derived endogenously from his preferences, incentives and constraints. Since the policymakers' incentives and constraints represent real world political institutions, this approach provides a useful tool for analyzing the relationship between politics and macroeconomic policy. This paper shows that this recent line of research has provided several novel, testable results; the paper both reviews previous successful tests of the theory and presents some new successful tests. Even though some pathbreaking contributions were published in the mid-1970s, (for instance, Hamada (1976), Kydland-Prescott (1977), Calvo (1978)) the game-theoretic literature on macroeconomic policy has only in the last five years begun to pick up momentum after a shift attributed to the influential work done by Barro and Gordon (1983a,b) on monetary policy.
    [Show full text]
  • An Introduction to Macroeconomics with Household Heterogeneity
    An Introduction to Macroeconomics with Household Heterogeneity Dirk Krueger1 Department of Economics University of Pennsylvania March 6, 2018 1I wish to thank Orazio Attanasio, Richard Blundell, Juan Carlos Conesa, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Robert Hall, Tim Kehoe, Narayana Kocherlakota, Felix Kubler, Fabrizio Perri, Luigi Pistaferri, Ed Prescott, Victor Rios-Rull and Thomas Sargent for teaching me much of the material presented in this manuscript. c by Dirk Krueger. All comments are welcomed, please contact the author at [email protected]. ii Contents I Introduction 1 1 Overview over the Monograph 3 2 Why Macro with Heterogeneous Households (or Firms)? 7 3 Some Stylized Facts and Some Puzzles 9 3.1 Household Level Data Sources . 9 3.1.1 CEX . 9 3.1.2 SCF . 10 3.1.3 PSID . 10 3.1.4 CPS . 11 3.1.5 Data Sources for Other Countries . 11 3.2 Main Findings . 12 3.2.1 Organization of Facts . 12 3.2.2 Aggregate Time Series: Means over Time . 12 3.2.3 Means over the Life Cycle . 16 3.2.4 Dispersion over the Life Cycle . 18 3.2.5 Dispersion (Inequality) at a Point in Time . 19 3.2.6 Changes in Dispersion over Time . 19 3.2.7 Other Interesting Facts (or Puzzles) . 19 4 The Standard Complete Markets Model 23 4.1 Theoretical Results . 25 4.1.1 Arrow-Debreu Equilibrium . 25 4.1.2 Sequential Markets Equilibrium . 34 4.2 Empirical Implications for Asset Pricing . 39 4.2.1 An Example . 48 4.3 Tests of Complete Consumption Insurance .
    [Show full text]
  • The Neoclassical Synthesis
    In Search of Lost Time: the Neoclassical Synthesis M. De Vroey and P. Garcia Duarte Discussion Paper 2012-26 IN SEARCH OF LOST TIME: THE NEOCLASSICAL SYNTHESIS Michel De Vroey and Pedro Garcia Duarte ◊ Abstract Present-day macroeconomics has sometimes been dubbed ‘the new neoclassical synthesis’, suggesting that it constitutes a reincarnation of the neoclassical synthesis of the 1950s. This paper assesses this understanding. To this end, we examine the contents of the ‘old’ and the ‘new’ neoclassical syntheses. We show that the neoclassical synthesis originally had no fixed content, but two meanings gradually became dominant. First, it designates the program of integrating Keynesian and Walrasian theory. Second, it designates the methodological principle that in macroeconomics it is better to have alternative models geared towards different purposes than a hegemonic general equilibrium model. The paper documents that: (a) the first program was never achieved; (b) Lucas’s criticisms of Keynesian macroeconomics eventually caused the neoclassical synthesis program to vanish from the scene; (c) the rise of DSGE macroeconomics marked the end of the neoclassical synthesis mark II; and (d) contrary to present-day understanding, the link between the old and the new synthesis is at best weak. JEL codes: B22, B30, E12, E13 Keywords: neoclassical synthesis, new neoclassical synthesis, Paul Samuelson, Robert Lucas, Robert Solow ◊ University of Louvain ([email protected]) and University of São Paulo ([email protected]). The authors gratefully acknowledge Roger Backhouse’s comments on an earlier version of this paper. 1 Introduction Since its inception, macroeconomics has witnessed an alternation between phases of consensus and dissent.
    [Show full text]
  • The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation
    GEORGE A. AKERLOF Brookings Institutionand Universityof California, Berkeley WILLIAM T. DICKENS Brookings Institution GEORGE L. PERRY Brookings Institution The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation THE CONCEPT of a natural unemployment rate has been central to most modern models of inflation and stabilization. According to these models, inflation will accelerate or decelerate depending on whether unemployment is below or above the natural rate, while any existing rate of inflation will continue if unemployment is at the natural rate. The natural rate is thus the minimum, and only, sustainable rate of unemployment, but the inflation rate is left as a choice variable for policymakers. Since complete price stability has attractive features, many economists and policymakers who accept the natural rate hypoth- esis believe that central banks should target zero inflation. We question the standard version of the natural rate model and each of these implications. Central to our analysis is the effect of downward nominal wage rigidity in an economy in which individual firms expe- rience stochastic shocks in the demand for their output. We embed these features in a model that otherwise resembles a standard natural rate model and show there is no unique natural unemployment rate. Rather, the rate of unemployment that is consistent with steady inflation We would especially like to thankNeil Siegel, JustinSmith, andJennifer Eichberger for invaluableresearch assistance. We are also gratefulto PierreFortin, HarryHolzer, and ChristinaRomer for providingus with data, and to John Baldwin, Paul Beaudry, Bryan Caplan, BradfordDe Long, Erica Groshen, Peter Howitt, ShulamitKahn, Ken- neth McLaughlin, Craig Riddell, David Romer, Paul Romer, Charles Schultze, Lars Svensson, Robert Solow, and Michael Wolfson for their help and comments.
    [Show full text]
  • The Macroeconomic Implications of Consumption: State-Of-Art and Prospects for the Heterodox Future Research
    The macroeconomic implications of consumption: state-of-art and prospects for the heterodox future research Lídia Brochier1 and Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva2 Abstract The recent US economic scenario has motivated a series of heterodox papers concerned with household indebtedness and consumption. Though discussing autonomous consumption, most of the theoretical papers rely on private investment-led growth models. An alternative approach is the so-called Sraffian supermultipler model, which treats long-run investment as induced, allowing for the possibility that other final demand components – including consumption – may lead long-run growth. We suggest that the dialogue between these approaches is not only possible but may prove to be quite fruitful. Keywords: Consumption, household debt, growth theories, autonomous expenditure. JEL classification: B59, E12, E21. 1 PhD Student, University of Campinas (UNICAMP), São Paulo, Brazil. [email protected] 2 Professor at University of Campinas (UNICAMP), São Paulo, Brazil. [email protected] 1 1 Introduction Following Keynes’ famous dictum on investment as the “causa causans” of output and employment levels, macroeconomic literature has tended to depict personal consumption as a well-behaved and rather uninteresting aggregate demand component.3 To be sure, consumption is much less volatile than investment. Does it really mean it is less important? For many Keynesian economists, the answer is – or at least was, until recently – probably positive. At any rate, the American experience has at least demonstrated that consumption is important, and not only because it usually represents more than 60% of GDP. After all, in the U.S., the very ratio between consumption and GDP has been increasing since the 1980s, in spite of the stagnant real labor income and the growing income inequality.
    [Show full text]
  • Macro Model Objectives : Understand the Difference Between Desired
    Macro Model Objectives : Understand the difference between desired expenditure and actual expenditure. Explain the determinants of desired consumption and desired investment expeditures. Understand the meaning of equilibrium national income. Recognize the difference between movements along and shifts of the aggregate expenditure functions. Desired expenditure Everyone makes expenditure decisions. Fortunately, it is unnecessary for our purposes to look at each of the millions of such individual decisions. Instead, it is sufficient to consider four main groups of decision makers. The sum of their desired expenditures on domestically produced output is called desired aggregate expenditure, or more simply aggregate expenditure (AE). AE = C + I +G +(X-M) Autonomus versus induced expenditure. Components of aggregate expenditure that do not depend on national income are called autonomous expenditures. Components of aggregate expenditure that do change in response to changes in national income are called induced expenditures. Global Economics : macro model 2 Important simplifications Our goal is to develop the simplest possible model of national-income determination. To do so we focus on only two of the four components of desired aggregate expenditure. Consumption and investment Desired consumption expenditure By definition, there are only two possible uses of disposable income–consumption and saving. W hen the household decides how much to put to one use, it has automatically decided how much to put to the other use. The consumption function relates to total desired consumption expenditures of all households. The consumption behaviour of households depends on the income that they actually have to spend, which is called disposable income. Under the assumptions, here, there are no governments, therefore no taxes.
    [Show full text]