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Disaster Preparedness in Bangladesh Disaster Preparedness in Bangladesh Sabhanaz Rashid Diya and Jennifer Bussell July 2017 RESEARCH BRIEF NO. 7 ABOUT THE STRAUSS CENTER The Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law integrates expertise from across the University of Texas at Austin, as well as from the private and public sectors, in pursuit of practical solutions to emerging international challenges. ABOUT THE CEPSA PROGRAM The Strauss Center’s program on Complex Emergencies and Political Stability in Asia (CEPSA) explores the causes and dynamics of complex emergencies in Asia and potential strategies for response. In doing so, the program investigates the diverse forces that contribute to climate-related disaster vulnerability and complex emergencies in Asia, the implications of such events for local and regional security, and how investments in preparedness can minimize these impacts and build resilience. CEPSA is a multi-year initiative funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, a university- based, social science research program focused on areas of strategic importance to national security policy. ABOUT THE AUTHORS Sabhanaz Rashid Diya is a graduate research assistant on CEPSA’s program’s Disaster Preparedness at the University of California at Berkeley. Dr. Jennifer Bussell is an Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. Her research focuses on the comparative politics and political economy of development and governance, with an emphasis on understanding the effects of formal and informal institutions on policy outcomes. She has conducted detailed research on technology adoption by developing country governments, based on fieldwork in 17 Indian states, as well as in South Africa and Brazil. Dr. Bussell received her PhD in political science from the University of California, Berkeley and was a Visiting Fellow at the Center for Asian Democracy at the University of Louisville. ACKNOWLEDEMENTS This material is based upon work supported by, or in part by, the U.S. Army Research Laboratory and the U.S. Army Research Office via the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative under grant number W911NF-14-1-0528. TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction ................................. 1 Bangladesh’s Experience with Natural Hazards .......................... 1 Floods .................................... 1 Cyclones ................................ 1 Drought ................................. 2 Landslides .............................. 2 Earthquakes ........................... 3 Disaster Preparedness in Bangladesh .................................. 3 Progress on the Hyogo Framework for Action ........... 4 Incentives for Disaster Preparedness ............................... 5 Political Development and Electoral Incentives ............... 6 Policy Recommendations ............. 6 is floodplains, situated at the Ganges Delta with Introduction numerous tributaries flowing into the Bay of Bengal. These characteristics increase the risks associated with The CEPSA program’s research on disaster preparedness intense rain and cyclonic events, placing large portions in South Asia focuses on understanding the current of the population at risk. In contrast to flood-prone status of preparedness initiatives and the political areas, the northwestern region is subject to drought economic incentives underlying these outcomes. This conditions. Finally, a subduction zone underneath research uses case studies and quantitative analyses to Bangladesh has recently been identified as placing the investigate why national and sub-national governments country at increased risk of earthquakes in the future. invest—or do not invest—in efforts to reduce the risk The combination of these dynamics has historically of, and prepare for, natural hazards. led to significant natural disasters in Bangladesh, with the expectation that these natural hazard events will This research brief summarizes the findings of a detailed continue into the future. case analysis on Bangladesh, a country faced with severe threats from a wide range of natural hazards, Floods risks that are only expected to increase in severity As a result of its geographical location, Bangladesh with the continued climate change. In this study, we is prone to annual flooding, primarily during the consider three main topics: the history and character monsoon months of June through September. Heavy of natural hazards in Bangladesh; the current status annual rainfall inundates nearly 18 percent of the of preparedness initiatives, with particular attention country. This precipitation is important in sustaining to progress on the priorities laid out by the Hyogo the agricultural industry by depositing sediments Framework for Actions; and evaluation of potential brought by the resulting floodwaters. Unfortunately, explanations for these outcomes. We conclude with during the 1987 flood, nearly 40 percent of land was a set of policy recommendations for the Bangladeshi under water because of heavy rain, recording it as one government, based on the findings of the study. of the most catastrophic events in Bangladesh’s history.4 880 lives were lost and 500,000 people were displaced, accounting for nearly US $1 billion in damage. In Bangladesh’s Experience with 1988, before the country could recover from the past Natural Hazards year’s floods, it was hit by a more catastrophic flood, displacing over 5 million people and costing US $450 Bangladesh is often cited as one of the countries with million in damages. the greatest risk of being affected by climate change and natural disasters. In 2013, the Intergovernmental Cyclones Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ranked Bangladesh Bangladesh has a long history of tropical cyclones, and as the most ‘climate vulnerable country’ in the world,1 the government estimates a severe cyclone in the coastal while Maplecraft’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index areas once every three years. The land area is less than (CVI) estimates Bangladesh to be at ‘extreme risk’ from 7 meters above sea level, and a study has shown that the impacts of climate change by 2025.2 high tides in Bangladesh are rising 10 times faster than the global average.5 Cyclones are most common in the A number of demographic and geographic factors southwest parts of the country with the lowest-lying contribute to Bangladesh’s climate and natural villages in the river deltas of the Bay of Bengal. hazard sensitivity. The country is one of the most densely populated in the world, constituting 147,570 In addition to displacing large numbers of people, square kilometers of area with a total population of cyclones have an adverse effect on the agricultural nearly 163 million.3 Over 80 percent of Bangladesh sector. During Cyclone Marian in 1991, 247,000 tons 1 RESEARCH BRIEF NO. 7 of cereal crops and 35,000 tons of vegetable, tubers and intense droughts have affected about 53 percent of the other crops were lost.6 Damage to coastal embankments, population with widespread damage to agricultural high salinity in some areas and a shortage of tools, crops. Increased summer drying and shortage of water seeds, and fertilizers made the prospects for rice crop lead to more incidents of illnesses among children, bleak in the months following the cyclone. The port increases in crop pests and diseases, increased energy city of Chittagong suffered heavy damage and the port demand, and excessive heat stress among livestock. itself was left in shambles. The cost of reconstruction Climate scientists estimate the dry seasons will be and rehabilitation was estimated at US $1.78 billion by more prolonged by 2020 as a result of climate change, a UN task force that investigated the cyclone’s impact. turning existing drought-affected areas into severely drought prone areas.7 Drought The northwestern regions of Bangladesh are primarily Landslides affected by droughts, historically occurring annually Although landslides contributed to only 0.14 percent between mid-September and mid-November. The most of the damage caused by natural disasters between Table 1 - Summary of Major Recent Natural Hazard Events Month/Year Event Type Damage Caused 1987 Flood 40% of land underwater, 880 deaths, 500,000 people displaced, ~$1 billion in damages 1988 Flood 60% of land underwater, 5 million people displaced, $450 million in damages 1989 Drought 1994 Drought 1998 Flood 75% of land underwater, ~1,000 deaths, 30 million people displaced 2000 Drought 2004 Flood 66% of land underwater May 2007 Cyclone 14 deaths and damages amounting to US$ 982 million June 2007 Landslide 128 deaths, >8,000 displaced Nov 2007 Cyclone 3,500 deaths and severe damage to households/livestock Oct 2008 Cyclone 15 deaths and thousands of homes destroyed Apr 2009 Cyclone 0 deaths and some agricultural lands destroyed May 2009 Cyclone 150 deaths, 200,000 houses destroyed and crop losses May 2013 Cyclone 17 deaths and 1.3 million people displaced; crop losses amounting to US$ 5.14 million Jul 2015 Cyclone 132 deaths, 510,000 houses destroyed and over 667,221 acres of land damaged 2016 Flood 64 deaths, 3.2 million people affected May 2016 Cyclone 26 deaths, 40,000 homesteads destroyed and severe damage to live- stock, fish and shrimp farms Aug 2016 Cyclone 0 deaths and some agricultural lands damaged May 2017 Cyclone 9 deaths, 500,000 people displaced and 20,000 homes destroyed 2 RESEARCH BRIEF NO. 7 2009 and 2014, they are increasingly concerning The framework was developed with the intent to for the government because of climate
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