Urban Spatial Growth: the Case of Bangladesh M. Shahidul Islam Research Fellow, Institute of Governance Studies, BRAC University Mohammad Nasir Uddin khan Senior Research Associate, Research and Evaluation Division, BRAC Spatial concentration of economic activities, fundamental forces • Urban economists define a city as a spatial concentration of economic activities. • Key determinants of spatial structure of economic activity: low transport costs and increasing returns to scale in production. • Rather than growing in parallel, regions /cities have a tendency to grow in sequence – the phenomenon is widely captured in cross country studies; • Out of 858 Chinese cities, 14 generate 33 percent of China’s GDP (Mckinsey, 2011); Urbanisation and unbalanced growth: theory and literature • Factors influence unbalanced or lumpy growth: history, location, migration, economies of scale/agglomeration economics, range of preference grants by central government (EPZ, for instance), market access, quality of public service, and urban bias; • Theoretical explanations of unbalanced growth: the existence of increasing returns to scale - New Economic Geography developed (Krugman, 1991): the importance of locational fundamentals; - physical landscape, such as temperature, rainfall, access to the sea, the presence of natural resources. The case of Bangladesh • Urban growth in Bangladesh is apparently following a similar trend that economic mountains are concentrated in few places; The big picture: Bangladesh and its immediate neighbourhood at night (the brightest areas of the Earth are the most urbanized, but not necessarily the most populated) Rationale and methodology of the study • Rationale: Policy bias, high opportunity cost of scarce resources • Methodology: • Definition of urban area: • Population Census 2001: Four distinct classes on the basis of their functions and sizes: megacity, statistical metropolitan area (SMA), municipality area and other urban area; • Bangladesh Population & Housing Census 2011: urban area corresponds: metalled roads, improved communication, electricity, gas, water supply, sewerage, sanitation and also having comparatively higher density of population with majority population in non-agricultural occupations. • Urban areas are classified into three categories: • City Corporation; Paurashava/Municipality Area; Other Urban Area The settlement pattern of urban population in Bangladesh and other developing countries Identification of top urban districts • We indentify the following variables that could explain trends, pattern and differences of urbanisation in various districts in 64 districts of Bangladesh: • Share of urban population in total population (r_shareup) • Population density (r_dens) • Share of immigrants in total population (r_immper) • Size of urban population (r_popsz) • Area (r_area) • Per capita GDP (r_percgdp) • Off-farm per capita income (r_ofpercapy) • Manufacturing share in GDP (r_mamugdp) • Total number of manufacturing and services establishments (r_alsecamnt) • Total unit of manufacturing establishments (r_manuamnt) • Employment in total establishments (r_alsecemp) • Employment in manufacturing establishments (r_manuemp) Data Source: Population Census 2001, BBS and Economic Census 2003, BBS. Top 20 urban districts (based on Population Census 2001, BBS and Economic Census 2003, BBS. District Rank DHAKA 1 NARAYANGANJ 2 CHITTAGONG 3 KHULNA 4 GAZIPUR 5 JESSORE 6 SYLHET 7 RAJSHAHI 8 NARSINGDI 9 MYMENSINGH 10 BOGRA 11 BARISAL 12 TANGAIL 13 BRAHMANBARIA 14 KISHOREGANJ 15 COX'S BAZAR 16 JAMALPUR 17 JHENAIDAH 18 NATORE 19 CHUADANGA 20 strong correlation between location of industrial and services establishments and the ranking of urban districts, top 5 districts constitute 45% of establishments, Dhaka alone 25% Economic est. share (%) BOGRA MYMENSINGH JESSORE SYLHET RAJSHAHI GAZIPUR KHULNA NARAYANGANJ CHITTAGONG DHAKA 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Top 50 urban centres Concentration of urban centers Top urban districts (based on 2011 Population Census data) Pattern 1 (Urbanization Pattern 2 Pattern 3 Pattern 4 rate and population (Urbanization rate (Population (Urbanization density, above National (above 20% and density above rate above average) density (900 plus, per national average) national sq km) average) Dhaka Dhaka Dhaka, Narayanganj Dhaka Chittagong Chittagong Narsingdi, Gazipur Chittagong Narayangonj Narayanganj Comilla, Brahmanbari Khagrachori Rajshahi Khulna a, Chandpur Khulna Feni, Chittagong Gazipur Rajshahi Munshiganj Narayanganj Gazipur Sirajganj, Kushtia Rajshahi Chuadanga Lakshmipur Gazipur Rangpur Chuadanga Nilphamari, Bogra Rangamati Mymensingh Bandarban Gaibandha Kishoreganj Rajshahi Jessore Top Urban Districts (based on 2011 Population Census data) Pattern 5 (Change in Pattern 6 (Urbanization Pattern 7 (Population population 20% and rate, change in ranking of density, Change in above, between 2001 and top 10 districts, between ranking of top 10 2011) 2001 and 2011) districts, between 2001 and 2011) Bogra, Noakhali Chittagong Narsingdi Cox's Bazar Khagrachari Gazipur Sylhet, Feni Jhalokati Brahmanbaria Comilla, Chandpur Pirojpur Chandpur Kishoreganj, Sirajganj Feni Kushtia Brahmanbaria , Netrokona Chandpur Lakshmipur Barisal , Jessore Kishoreganj Gaibandha Narsingdi, Habiganj Noakhali Kishoreganj Khagrachari, Tangail Jhenaidah Rajshahi Naogaon, Nilphamari Brahmanbaria Pabna Dinajpur, Jhenaidah Mymensingh Urbanisation: solid vs least Dhaka 8000 6000 Narayanganj 4000 DNST-2011 Narsingdi Gazipur 2000 Comilla MunshiganjB'bariaChandpurFeni Chittagong KushtiaSirajganj GaibandhaBograNilphamariTangailLakshmipurPabnaRangpurMymansinghKishoreganjJamalpurJessore Rajshahi ManikganjLalmonirhatShariatpurRajbariNatoreMadaripurSherpurFaridpurJaipurhatKurigramJhenaidahJhalokatiC'NawabganjCox'sSylhet bazarC'danga NaogaonGopalgonjNetrokonaThakurgaonHabiganjMeherpurMaguraDinazpurNarailNoakhaliPirojpurBarisal PanchagarhSunamganjMaulvibazar Khagrachari SatkhiraBargunaPatuakhaliBegerhatBhola Khulna BandarbanRangamati 0 0 20 40 60 80 UR-2011 Urabanization in Bangladesh, 2011 PANCHAGARH THAKURGAON NILPHAMARILALMONIRHAT KURIGRAM ¯ DINAJPUR RANGPUR INDIA GAIBANDHA SHERPUR JOYPURHAT NAOGAON SUNAMGANJ SYLHET NETRAKONA BOGRA JAMALPUR NAWABGANJ MYMENSINGH RAJSHAHI MOULVI BAZAR SIRAJGANJ NATOR TANGAIL KISHOREGANJ HABIGANJ GAZIPUR INDIA PABNA NARSINGDI BRAHMANBARIA KUSHTIA MEHERPUR MANIKGANJ DHAKA INDIA RAJBARI NARAYANGANJ CHUADANGA JHENAIDAH FARIDPUR MUNSHIGANJ COMILLA MAGURA SHARIATPURCHANDPUR NARAIL MADARIPUR KHAGRACHHARI JESSORE GOPALGANJ FENI LAKSHMIPUR BARISAL NOAKHALI RANGAMATI KHULNA PIROJPUR BAGERHATJHALAKATI SATKHIRA CHITTAGONG BHOLA PATUAKHALI BARGUNA BANDARBAN Legend COX'S BAZAR urbanization BAY OF BENGAL Study_Area Least urban 33 Solid urban: 5 Upcoming 20 Other urban 6 Districts to watch (by group) Concentration of new urban population 4.7 million new urban population added during 2001-2011 1.6 1.52 35 1.4 30 1.2 25 1.0 20 0.8 15 0.6 0.53 Million 10 0.4 0.32 0.31 0.28 share 0.23 5 0.2 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.0 0 Some broad patterns • First, there is an overwhelming primacy of Dhaka. • Second: Geography is a strong determinant of urbanisation in Bangladesh- – Top urban districts are located in the east of the two major rivers Ganges and Brahmaputra (the divisions of Chittagong, Sylhet and most of Dhaka) have much higher concentration of urban activities than those that are in the west of Brahmaputra and South of Ganges (Divisions of Rajshahi, Khulna, Barisal and the districts that are located on the other side of the Ganges). • However, some districts of the west have performed well in the past decade • Third: urbanisation is heavily skewed to Dhaka and Chittagong, making it the country’s prime urban corridor • Fourth: Chittagong division has experienced more balanced urbanisation- almost all of its districts are relatively more urbanized- either in terms of urbanisation rate or population density; Dhaka’s primacy East-West divide remains, but some districts in the West are catching-up Urabanization in Bangladesh, 2011 PANCHAGARH THAKURGAON NILPHAMARILALMONIRHAT KURIGRAM ¯ DINAJPUR RANGPUR INDIA GAIBANDHA SHERPUR JOYPURHAT NAOGAON SUNAMGANJ SYLHET NETRAKONA BOGRA JAMALPUR NAWABGANJ MYMENSINGH RAJSHAHI MOULVI BAZAR SIRAJGANJ NATOR TANGAIL KISHOREGANJ HABIGANJ GAZIPUR INDIA PABNA NARSINGDI BRAHMANBARIA KUSHTIA MEHERPUR MANIKGANJ DHAKA INDIA RAJBARI NARAYANGANJ CHUADANGA JHENAIDAH FARIDPUR MUNSHIGANJ COMILLA MAGURA SHARIATPURCHANDPUR NARAIL MADARIPUR KHAGRACHHARI JESSORE GOPALGANJ FENI LAKSHMIPUR BARISAL NOAKHALI RANGAMATI KHULNA PIROJPUR BAGERHATJHALAKATI SATKHIRA BHOLA CHITTAGONG PATUAKHALI BARGUNA BANDARBAN Legend COX'S BAZAR urbanization BAY OF BENGAL Study_Area Least urban 33 Solid urban: 5 Upcoming 20 Other urban 6 • Dhaka-Chittagong urban corridor • Chittagong: first urban district? Conclusions •There is a high correlation between industry and service establishments and level of urbanisation. -Thus, urbanisation in top districts is probably largely due to pull factors • Location is also a strong determinant of urbanisation. • While dominance of a few districts are overwhelming, a large number of districts – mostly located in Dhaka and Chittagong- are experiencing fast unbanisation • Districts that experienced rapid population growth between 2001-2011 are not the traditional ones (other than Big 5); They have approx. 96 lac (9.6 million) urban population; thus there is a growing consumer market beyond the Big-5. Conclusions • A number of districts in other divisions, apart from regional urban hubs (Rajshahi, Khulna and Rangpur) are undergoing significant urbanisation. • Border districts fare well in the country’s urban map- of 31 urban districts 14 share border with neighbours (mostly India) and of them at least 9 have active border trade. • Dhaka-Chittagong Urban corridor are connecting districts that were separated geographically a decade ago; • Nearly 50 lac (4.7 million) new urban population added between 2001-2011: - Dhaka, Bogra, Sylhet, Comilla, Noakhali and Cox’s Bazar absorbed 3.2 million population Border districts .