Regional Economic Update
Robert K. Triest Vice President and Director, New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston [email protected]
Lincoln Institute of Land Policy December 2, 2016
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Districts
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 2/ 15
Employment growth in New England and the U.S. 1.1 1.05 1 .95 Pre-recession peak = 1 .9 2000m1 2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1
US CT ME MA NH RI VT
Seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 4/ 15 Unemployment rates (U-3) 12 10 8 percent 6 4 2 2000m1 2002m1 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1
US CT ME MA NH RI VT
Seasonally adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Household Survey and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 5/ 15 Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits 2.5 2 1.5 Jan 2005 = 1 1 .5 2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1
US CT ME MA NH RI VT
12-month moving average Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 6/ 15 U-6 labor underutilization rate 20 15 percent 10 5 2004q1 2007q1 2010q1 2013q1 2016q1
US CT ME MA NH RI VT
12-month moving average Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 7/ 15 New England and U.S. employment growth by supersector
Industry employment growth, thousands of jobs
Trade, Transp., and Utilities
Other Services
Prof. and Business Services
Manufacturing
Leisure and Hospitality
Goverment
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
Education and Health Services
Construction
October '07-October '09 October '09-October '16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 8/ 15 FHFA house price index 250 200 150 1995 = 100 100 50 1985q1 1990q1 1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1
US CT ME MA NH RI VT
Seasonally adjusted Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency and Haver Analytics
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 9/ 15 State general revenues 1.2 1.1 1 Pre-recession peak = 1 .9 .8 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1
CT ME MA NH RI VT
12-month moving average Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston New England Economic Indicators
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 10/ 15 The Federal Open Market Committee meets 8 times yearly
Janet Yellen
Eric Rosengren Esther George Daniel Tarullo Jerome Powell
Lael Brainard James Bullard Stanley Fischer William Dudley Loretta Mester FOMC Alternate Members:
Charles Evans Michael Strine Patrick Harker Robert Kaplan Neel Kashkari
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 11/ 15 SEP: (September 2016) Growth in Real GDP
For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, September 21, 2016
Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2016–19 and over the longer run
Percent
Change in real GDP Median of projections Central tendency of projections 3 Range of projections
2
Actual 1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160921.pdf Percent
Unemployment rate 9
8
7
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 20166 12/ 15
5
4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
Percent
PCE inflation 3
2
1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to the projections table. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, September 21, 2016
Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2016–19 and over the longer run
Percent
Change in real GDP Median of projections Central tendency of projections 3 Range of projections
2
SEP: (SeptemberActual 2016) Unemployment Rate 1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
Percent
Unemployment rate 9
8
7
6
5
4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160921.pdf Percent
PCE inflation 3
2
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 13/ 15
1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
Note: Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to the projections table. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, September 21, 2016
Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2016–19 and over the longer run
Percent
Change in real GDP Median of projections Central tendency of projections 3 Range of projections
2
Actual 1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
Percent
Unemployment rate 9
8
7
6 SEP: (September 2016) PCE Inflation Rate 5 4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
Percent
PCE inflation 3
2
1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
Note: DefinitionsSource: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160921.pdf of variables and other explanations are in the notes to the projections table. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual.
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 14/ 15 For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, September 21, 2016
Figure 2. FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for SEP: (Septemberthe federal funds rate 2016) Timing of Policy Firming
Percent 5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer run
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160921.pdf Note: each dot represents the judgement of one FOMC participant of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the Federal Funds Rate at the end of the calendar year.
R. Triest Regional Economic Update, December 2, 2016 15/ 15
Note: Each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individual par- ticipant’s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. One participant did not submit longer-run projections for the federal funds rate.