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Turning the Tide TURNING THE TIDE How to rescue transatlantic relations Edited by Simona R. Soare With contributions from Paul Bacon, Joe Burton, Andrea Charron, John R. Deni, Florence Gaub, Katarina Kertysova, Elena Lazarou, Gustav Lindstrom, Katariina Mustasilta, Clara Portela, Corina Rebegea and Zoe Stanley-Lockman European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) 100, avenue de Suffren 75015 Paris http://www.iss.europa.eu Director: Gustav Lindstrom © EU Institute for Security Studies, 2020. Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated. The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union. print ISBN 978-92-9198-838-9 online ISBN 978-92-9198-971-3 CATALOGUE NUMBER QN-02-20-796-EN-C CATALOGUE NUMBER QN-02-20-796-EN-N DOI 10.2815/097304 DOI 10.2815/308579 Published by the EU Institute for Security Studies and printed in Belgium by Bietlot. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020. Cover image credit: Julius Drost/unsplash TURNING THE TIDE How to rescue transatlantic relations Edited by Simona R. Soare With contributions from Paul Bacon, Joe Burton, Andrea Charron, John R. Deni, Florence Gaub, Katarina Kertysova, Elena Lazarou, Gustav Lindstrom, Katariina Mustasilta, Clara Portela, Corina Rebegea and Zoe Stanley-Lockman The editor Simona R. Soare is a Senior Associate Analyst at the EUISS specialising in transatlantic relations and EU-NATO cooperation. Contents Executive Summary 4 Introduction 6 The fragile, unbreakable transatlantic bond Simona R. Soare RESETTING THE TRANSATLANTIC PARTNERSHIP 1 Do you see what I see? 18 American and European visions of the future Florence Gaub 2 Rejuvenating transatlantic relations 33 The military dimension John R. Deni 3 Partners in need or partners in deed? 44 How EU-NATO cooperation shapes transatlantic relations Simona R. Soare 4 Transatlantic parliamentary diplomacy 60 Contributing to the future of transatlantic relations Elena Lazarou 5 Rejuvenating transatlantic strategic culture 75 Towards a new Atlanticism Joe Burton 2 Turning the tide | How to rescue transatlantic relations THE NEXT TRANSATLANTIC LEVEL: GOING GLOBAL 6 Competition, cooperation, and connectivity 92 How the Indo-Pacific can shape transatlantic relations Paul Bacon 7 Preventing our way back to friendship? 106 Conflict prevention and the future of transatlantic relations Katariina Mustasilta 8 Transatlantic cooperation on sanctions in Latin America 121 From convergence to alignment? Clara Portela 9 Arctic security 137 NATO and the future of transatlantic relations Andrea Charron TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS: NEW SUBSTANCE AND RELEVANCE 10 Stability and security in outer space 154 Reinforcing transatlantic cooperation Gustav Lindstrom 11 Futureproofing transatlantic relations 170 The case for stronger technology cooperation Zoe Stanley-Lockman 12 Beyond (dis-)information contagion 189 Democratic resilience and the future of transatlantic relations Corina Rebegea 13 Climate change in transatlantic relations 206 Prospects for bridging the EU-US climate divide Katarina Kertysova 3 Conclusion 223 Towards a new transatlantic agenda Simona R. Soare ANNEX Abbreviations 236 Notes on the contributors 239 Executive Summary he transatlantic partnership is in crisis (again!). Structural factors, political rhetoric and hostile foreign influence are in T danger of pushing the two sides of the Atlantic even further apart. A sustained effort to rescue the transatlantic partnership is needed, especially in light of the new European Commission taking office, the US elections in November 2020, the disruptive impact of Brexit, and upcoming elections in key European countries, including in France and Germany. It is time that both sides of the Atlantic reaf- firmed the strength and endurance of the transatlantic bond. This book is an attempt to map out what lies beyond the divide and peer into the future of the transatlantic partnership. It explores how partners on both sides of the Atlantic can rejuvenate transatlan- tic relations as the 2020s unfold. The volume offers an overarching view of the major factors, trends, areas and issues that are likely to shape transatlantic relations in the next decade. Rather than focus- ing on how to defuse disagreements over topical and politically sen- sitive issues such as relations with China, Russia and Iran, the volume seeks to explore less researched, but equally consequential aspects of the transatlantic partnership. Collectively, these issues may create new space for compromise and cooperation between the two sides of the Atlantic. The book is structured in three sections, each tackling key ar- eas of transatlantic strategic adaptation. Part One – Resetting the Transatlantic Partnership – explores how to rejuvenate the cultural, military, security and democratic foundations of the transatlantic partnership and to restore a sense of shared political purpose and di- rection. Part Two – The Next Transatlantic Level: Going Global – ex- plores how transatlantic cooperation could evolve to cover new are- as of strategic interest, from the Indo-Pacific to the Arctic and from Africa to Latin America. The final section – Transatlantic Relations: New Substance and Relevance – focuses on the issues that transat- lantic partners should include in their toolbox of cooperation and complementarity to be able to act efficiently, cover issues of strategic Executive Summary 5 substance, and maintain their strategic relevance to each other and, more broadly, in the international system. The main conclusions of the book are as follows: first, the future is still transatlantic, but a sustained effort is needed to rebuild the dem- ocratic, security and economic foundations of the transatlantic part- nership. Disagreements under the Trump administration have rocked the partnership to the core, but even a second Trump administration will not spell the end of transatlanticism. Second, transatlanticism is not a default state, it needs to be built and constantly sustained. Grassroots initiatives, such as public diplo- macy and efforts to rebuild transatlantic strategic culture, are needed to bring the transatlantic narrative to broader categories of stake- holders. Such efforts need to be complemented by the rekindling of meaningful strategic dialogue between both sides of the Atlantic in the spirit of complementarity and shared leadership. Third, there needs to be more Europe in transatlantic leadership, not to replace American leadership, but to enhance and complement it in the good times and to prevent transatlantic relations from going into free-fall in less auspicious ones. Fourth, while military cooperation will remain the cornerstone of transatlantic security and defence, our practice and understanding of transatlantic security and the stakeholders we include needs an update and an upgrade. Transatlantic partners need to reassess the contours of transatlantic security, including by taking stock of the dependencies be- tween internal and external security, and at all levels of society. Finally, as great power competition returns, and as Western inter- ests and the rules-based international order are increasingly contest- ed and undermined, the practice of transatlantic cooperation needs to expand its geographical reach. Transatlanticism should become bet- ter nested in a multilateral framework that attracts other like-minded partners from the Indo-Pacific, Africa and Latin America. Such efforts are vital in order to safeguard the rules-based international order and to stand up together to the rise of China, Russia’s resurgence on the world stage and whatever other challenges the 2020s may hold. Introduction The fragile, unbreakable transatlantic bond SIMONA R. SOARE othing of great strategic importance ever comes easy – and this is especially true of the transatlantic partnership. There N is nothing easy about keeping the better part of two conti- nents together, agreeing on everything from top-level strategic chal- lenges to the nitty-gritty minutiae of coordinating policy implemen- tation and multinational operations. Building and holding together the transatlantic partnership was not an easy task in the aftermath of World War II, it is not easy today and it has not been easy at any point in-between. It takes great political commitment and tremendous fi- nancial investment on both sides of the Atlantic to keep it going. This is not always reflected in international relations literature and the scores of articles, reports and books that paint transatlan- tic relations in broad brushstrokes – either as a ‘natural’ or ‘special’ friendship between nations who share culture, history, values and interests, or as a ‘troubled’ relationship almost always on the brink of collapse. Nevertheless, there is broad agreement that over the past four years the unbreakable transatlantic bond has been sorely tested and has become increasingly fragile. As a result, transatlantic rela- tions have come to a strategic juncture. Will they continue to deteri- orate to a point of irreconcilable difference, or can the partnership be renewed and rejuvenated? Introduction 7 Toxic transatlanticism Although many Europeans dislike President Trump’s brash approach to transatlantic relations, the transatlantic divide did not start with him. Both sides of the Atlantic have contributed to the division. The transatlantic partnership was undermined in the 1990s by Europe’s paralysis in tackling security crises in the
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