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Reliance Industries 9 September 2020 Update | Sector: Oil & Gas Reliance Industries BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 38,194 11,278 CMP: INR2,161 TP: INR2,250 (+4%) Buy First deal in Reliance Retail; More could follow Silver Lake picks 1.75% stake for INR75b Contours of the RIL-Silver Lake deal Stock Info Reliance Industries (RIL) has announced that Silver Lake would invest INR75b in Bloomberg RIL IN Reliance Retail Ventures Ltd (RRVL) at pre-money equity value of INR4.21t. At Equity Shares (m) 6,339 an estimated net debt of INR100b, the enterprise value stands at INR4.31t. M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 14236.9 / 188.6 52-Week Range (INR) 2199 / 867 This implies 1.75% stake at post-money equity value of INR4.29t. We 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 0/89/76 understand this is fresh capital infusion in the company unlike the stake sale 12M Avg Val (INR M) 26427 done in Jio Platforms. Free float (%) 50.9 Media reports suggest that more investments could follow in RRVL. These Financials Snapshot (INR b) reports are in line with the Chairman and Managing Director’s comments in the Y/E March 2020 2021E 2022E RIL AGM about strategic stake sale in RRVL, which would aid in nurturing its Net Sales 5,959 4,882 6,115 new ventures like Jiomart. EBITDA 881 885 1,269 Net Profit 431 427 706 Adj. EPS (INR) 67.9 67.4 111.4 Deal reaffirms RRVL’s robust valuation EPS Gr. (%) 8.1 -0.8 65.3 Silver Lake has already invested INR101b in RIL (it has picked up 2.08% stake in BV/Sh. (INR) 715.1 782.5 884.7 Ratios Jio Platforms). The current deal strengthens our conviction in RIL’s retail Net D:E 0.6 0.5 0.4 business valuations. RoE (%) 10.2 9.0 13.4 With combined AUM of >USD60b focused on global tech-enabled RoCE (%) 8.5 8.3 11.1 Payout (%) 11.6 9.3 8.3 opportunities, Silver Lake is a leader in large-scale technology investing. It Valuations boasts of other investments such as Airbnb, Alibaba, Alphabet’s Verily and P/E (x) 31.8 31.2 19.4 Waymo units, Dell Technologies and Twitter, etc. P/BV (x) 3.0 2.8 2.4 RRVL could leverage Silver Lake’s digital experience to expand its JioMart EV/EBITDA(x) 18.5 18.5 12.4 EV/Sales (x) 2.7 3.4 2.6 business – its e-commerce venture. Div. Yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.4 Shareholding pattern (%) RRVL’s core business garnering steady scale and profitability As On Jun-20 Mar-20 Jun-19 RRVL is a subsidiary of RIL and holding company of its retail business. Its Promoter 49.2 48.9 46.2 interests include consumer electronics, food and grocery, and fashion and DII 13.5 13.6 11.6 lifestyle verticals. It is also present in petro retail and connectivity businesses, FII 26.6 25.9 26.2 which services RJio’s customers. Apart from Reliance Retail, RRVL has other Others 10.8 11.6 16.0 subsidiaries and JVs like Reliance Brands and Marks & Spencer, which hold the FII Includes depository receipts rest of the apparel/other retail businesses. Stock Performance (1-year) RRVL’s revenue/EBITDA stood at INR1,629b/INR97b in FY20. We expect the Reliance Industr Sensex - Rebased company to deliver revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 21%/23% over FY20-22E to reach 2,500 2,000 INR2,405b/INR145b by FY22E. Its core revenue/EBTDA including grocery, 1,500 fashion and lifestyle as well as consumer electronics (excluding connectivity 1,000 and petro retail) currently stands at INR928b/INR86.3b. 500 Grocery business: Reliance Retail runs its grocery business across three formats – Reliance Fresh, Reliance SMART, and Reliance Markets (cash-and- Jul-20 Jul-19 Jan-20 Oct-19 Apr-20 carry model). As of FY20, Reliance Retail’s grocery segment had Swarnendu Bhushan- Research Analyst ([email protected]) Aliasgar Shakir - Research Analyst ([email protected]) Sarfraz Bhimani - Research Analyst ([email protected]) Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital. Reliance Industries revenue/EBITDA of INR346b/INR23b, with EBITDA margin of 6.5%. Reliance Retail has 797 stores across grocery formats and Reliance Market has 52 stores. Thus, the company has an estimated ~745 grocery stores catering directly to the consumers (Reliance Fresh and Reliance SMART). Fashion and Lifestyle business: This business’ revenue/EBITDA stood at ~136b/INR32b in FY20. As at FY20, this format had a total of ~2,400 stores; of this, Reliance Trends had ~1,400 stores, while jewelry, footwear and stores with JVs had ~1,000 stores. Consumer electronics: Count of Reliance Digital stores reached 500 in FY20, while that of ‘Jio Digital’ stores stood at 8,100. Consumer Electronics’ revenue/EBITDA grew 14%/50% YoY in FY20 to INR446b/INR28b with margins expanding by 150bp to 6.2%. Valuation and view We have ascribed INR3.68t equity value to RRVL. Thus, this deal values the company at 14% premium to our valuation. At this valuation, the implied share price of Reliance Retail would be INR664 v/s our TP of INR580 and would increase our current TP of RIL (INR2,250) by 4%. This deal values RIL’s retail business (excluding the Future Group’s retail business) at 45x/30x EV/EBITDA on FY20/22E against our estimate of 26x on FY22E. Including Future Group’s retail business, the deal values RRVL at EV/EBITDA of 42x/29x on FY20/FY22E. We estimate RRVL’s revenue/EBITDA CAGR at 21%/23% to INR2,405b/INR145b in FY22E. Of this, core revenue/EBITDA should contribute 53%/83% i.e. INR1,271b/INR121b. We maintain our TP by assigning 30x/5x EV/EBITDA multiple to core/petro and connectivity EBITDA on FY22E to reach a TP of INR580/share. Exhibit 1: RIL – DCF Valuation (INR b) 7.5x FY22 EBITDA Equity value Standalone 1,125 288 580 2,250 62 404 368 Refining Petchem E&P Reliance RJio Net debt / Target price Retail (cash) INR/share Source: MOFSL, Company Exhibit 2: Post-money, RRVL’s equity value stands at INR4.29t (INR b) Silverlake amount infused RRVL Pre-money Post-money in RRVL Equity value 4,210 75 4,285 Debt 100 0 100 Enterprise Value 4,310 75 4,385 Source: Company 9 September 2020 2 Reliance Industries Exhibit 3: RRVL – EV/EBITDA based valuation on FY22E FY22 Valuation EBITDA Multiple EV (INR b) Core EBITDA 121 30 3,676 Petro and Connectivity 20 5 101.7 Total 3,778 Less Net Debt 100 Equity Value 3,678 No of Shares (in b) 6.3 TP 580 Source: MOFSL, Company Exhibit 4: Deal valuation including and excluding Future group’s retail business Amount in INR b RRVL Acquired business of Future group RRVL + Future group EV 4310 275 4585 EBITDA FY20 96.5 11.9 108 EV/EBITDA 45 42 EBITDA FY22 145.1 15.7 161 CAGR over FY20-22 23% 15% 22% EV/EBITDA 30 29 Source: MOFSL, Company Exhibit 5: Reliance Ventures (holding company structure) Reliance Retail Ventures (Holding Co.) Subsidiaries JV & Associates Marks & Spencer Reliance Retail Rhea Retail Reliance Brands Iconix Burberry (Reliance Retail) Lifestyle Petro Others Diesel Paul & Shark Others Marketing Holdings Source: MOFSL, Company 9 September 2020 3 Reliance Industries Reliance Retail - Financials and valuations Standalone - Income Statement (INR b) Y/E March FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Total Income from Operations 161 183 264 515 1019 1304 1402 2027 Change (%) 26.9 13.8 44.2 94.6 98.1 27.9 7.5 44.6 Total Expenditure 153 174 253 491 960 1212 1321 1891 % of Sales 95.1 95.0 95.6 95.4 94.2 93.0 94.2 93.3 EBITDA 8 9 12 24 59 91 81 136 Margin (%) 4.9 5.0 4.4 4.6 5.8 7.0 5.8 6.7 Depreciation 3 3 4 4 6 11 6 7 EBIT 5 6 8 19 53 80 74 128 Int. and Finance Charges 2 1 1 1 6 9 4 4 Other Income 1 0 0 0 1 3 2 2 PBT bef. EO Exp. 4 5 8 19 48 74 73 127 EO Items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PBT after EO Exp. 4 5 7 19 48 74 73 127 Total Tax 1 2 3 6 17 19 18 32 Tax Rate (%) 31.1 38.2 43.6 33.7 34.9 25.4 25.2 25.2 Reported PAT 3 3 4 12 31 55 54 95 Adjusted PAT 3 3 4 12 31 55 54 95 Change (%) -9.4 9.9 40.4 192.8 NA NA NA NA Margin (%) 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.4 3.1 4.2 3.9 4.7 Standalone - Balance Sheet Y/E March FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Equity Share Capital 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Eq. Share Warrants & App. Money 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Preference Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Reserves 2 11 18 41 76 131 186 280 Net Worth 52 61 68 91 126 181 236 330 Total Loans 17 11 0 34 128 47 44 44 Deferred Tax Liabilities -6 -10 -9 -6 0 0 0 0 Capital Employed 63 62 60 119 254 228 280 375 Gross Block 33 35 40 53 98 114 76 88 Less: Accum.
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