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No. 70: the North Caucasus Crisis

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No. 70: the North Caucasus Crisis russian analytical russian analytical digest 70/09 digest with a variety of journalists, and values contacts with tonomous and quasi-independent. In my view, Ramzan the Russian artistic elite. will never support separatism (which some politicians At the same time, he does not have good relations and experts have recently claimed) because he is com- with human rights organizations. These activists pose fortable to be self-standing within the framework of the obstacles for Ramzan as do the Russian authorities. In Russian Federation. 2009, he forced them to leave Chechnya. The murder of The end of the counter-terrorist operations took the famous human rights defender Natalia Estemirova place within the context of the economic crisis, when in July 2009, hardly helped him, as many of his op- the federal government had to delegate greater power, ponents accused him of being behind it. He did not rights, and responsibility to the country’s regional lead- need this problem. The murder slightly spoiled his im- ers. Subsidies from the federal budget are shrinking ev- age in the eyes of Moscow and even caused irritation. erywhere and in Chechnya as well. In compensation for One cannot exclude the possibility that the murder of the diminishing subsidies, Kadyrov won international Estemirova was carried out by Ramzan’s enemies. status for Chechnya’s airport, making it a chief source of additional income that is not controlled by the fed- What Next? eral government. The ending of counter-terrorist operations in Chechnya The official end of the counter-terrorist operations did not bring stability. Moreover, over the course of the in Chechnya does not mean the achievement of quiet year, it was necessary to restore such operations in some and stability in the whole region. Chechnya has diffi- parts of the republic. cult neighbors – Ingushetia and Dagestan – which are The end of the operations allowed Ramzan to feel far from stable. The North Caucasus and the Caucasus that he is completely in charge in Chechnya, something in general is a system of interconnected units around that he always wanted. While remaining inside the which at times flow potentially explosive political “flu- Russian Federation, Chechnya is becoming more au- ids.” About the Author: Aleksei Malashenko is a Scholar-in-Residence and Co-chair of the Program on Religion, Society and Security at the Carnegie Moscow Center. analysis Ingushetia: on the Road to Overcoming Social-Political Instability? By Sergey Markedonov, Moscow Abstract Although it is the smallest region in the country, Ingushetia has been in the news thanks to its seeming- ly unending cycle of violence. The appointment of President Yunus-bek Yevkurov just over a year ago pro- vided some hope for change, but the situation remains unstable. Yevkurov’s predecessor violated civil and human rights in his campaign against terrorists, creating a secular and Islamist opposition. Yevkurov has brought a new approach to governing by opening dialogue with the republic’s civil society, but his efforts and the attempt on his life demonstrate that one man cannot solve all the problems alone. A comprehen- sive policy is needed. A Difficult Situation the former republican police chief who was in charge The North Caucasus Republic of Ingushetia, located of law enforcement agencies. On June 22 there was right next door to Chechnya, frequently has been at the an attack on Ingushetia President Yunus-bek Yevkurov center of attention. Only in June 2009, terrorist attacks and on October 25 the famous human rights defender killed Deputy Chairman of the Supreme Court Aza Maksharip Aushev was shot dead in his car. After the Gazgireeva and republican vice-premier Bashir Aushev, August 19 explosion at a Nazran police station killed 5 russian analytical russian analytical digest 70/09 digest more than 20, Moscow imposed a state of emergency January 2008. Therefore, a change of leadership was under Ministry of Internal Affairs control. seen as necessary for a long-time before Medvedev ac- As a result of this spate of attacks on high-profile fig- tually replaced Zyazikov. ures, a number of articles and opinions have appeared on the ethno-political situation in Ingushetia. In this A New Beginning analysis, it is common to find either direct or indirect In spite of the expectations heaped on Yevkurov, a year comparison with the experience of Chechnya. However, later the crisis in Ingushetia has not been resolved. Since the situation in Ingushetia differs from that of its neigh- the arrival of Yevkurov, the sense of confusion has not boring republic in several ways, and understanding its disappeared from either the republican or the federal specific circumstances is important, firstly, for gaining authorities. At all levels, officials do not know how to an adequate sense of the current ‘Ingush challenge’, and address the situation in Ingushetia and what resourc- secondly, in forming a strategy for overcoming the po- es to use. In October 2009 a personnel shake-up took litical turbulence in the region. place when Yevkurov sacked his entire cabinet. Prime The attempted murder of Yevkurov came within Minister Rashid Gaisanov, who had served as acting a year of his appointment, which was precipitated by president in Yevkurov’s absence, was replaced by Aleksei President Dmitry Medvedev’s decision to remove pre- Vorobyev, whose background is in the siloviki and who vious governor Murat Zyazikov from his post on 30 has no experience in carrying out economic reforms. October 2008. The day Medvedev announced his choice However, instead of generating greater unity, these of Yevkurov, he was well known among the narrow cir- changes provoked controversy over whether a person cles of specialist officers, following a distinguished career from Moscow would be able to resist the influence of the in the military, with experience in the North Caucasus republic’s clans. Yet, in parallel to bringing yet another and peacekeeping in the Balkans, but in the course of Muscovite to the region, developments have also sug- the last year he has come to be known at the national lev- gested a bigger role for local actors. President Yevkurov el. In keeping with the emergency situation that prompt- has hinted at the necessity of creating a Council of teips, ed the removal of Zyazikov, Yevkurov’s candidature was whose members must come from the Ingush territori- put to the National Assembly (Ingush Parliament) only al-clan units. In the words of President Yevkurov, “the a day after Medvedev’s endorsement, where it received Council of teips must become a real power, for both practically full support. With this change in leadership, the leadership and wider society, in imposing order in expectations among both politicians and experts were our homeland”. This development has again provoked high that the security situation could be improved. discussion about the role of “tradition” in the North In the years proceeding Yevkurov’s appointment, the Caucasus, something with which many influential peo- situation in Ingushetia began increasingly to resemble ple in Moscow are not familiar. And finally, the au- that of a car without a steering wheel or brakes. The num- thorities are apparently seeking to use Ingush oligarch ber of terrorist acts increased significantly. According to Mikhail Gutseriev, the former owner of RussNeft. In official data from the procurator in 2007, the number August 2007, a Moscow court issued an arrest warrant of attacks on law-enforcement officers in Ingushetia -in for him and placed his name on the international want- creased by 85 percent. In contradiction to the worsen- ed list. In October 2009 the warrant was replaced with ing security situation, Ingushetia led the country in the the more liberal agreement not to leave town. While all number of votes cast for President Medvedev and United the machinations surrounding Gutseriev remain murky, Russia during the 2007–8 national electoral campaign. the authorities will likely try to coopt him to bring This gave the appearance that the authorities functioned peace to Ingushetia. in their own world detached from the realities of secu- What should be made of these eclectic management rity on the ground, whereby interaction with wider civ- tendencies? A year after the change in leadership, the il-society was considered optional, even a sign of weak- authorities have not found any great support for fun- ness. As a result, there was a growth in radical feel- damentally changing the situation. Therefore they try ings, even among secular opposition groups who did to catch hold of anything they can to address the prob- not seek to challenge Russian sovereignty. Indeed, dis- lem, whether it is teips, disgraced oligarchs or feder- satisfaction with the situation and Zyazikov’s leader- al powers. Therefore, should we conclude the change ship caused at least some sections of the Ingush popu- the leadership has been an ineffective solution to the lation to call for the return of the first Ingush president, Ingush problem? Such a response would be premature Ruslan Aushev, with a mass meeting of protest held in and too simple. 6 russian analytical russian analytical digest 70/09 digest Two Models of Leadership in Ingushetia course of this attack, 97 were killed and 105 were in- Yevkurov inherited a political legacy of problems that jured, mainly from the police and military. This action, have not been resolved in many years. In the post-So- as cynical as it sounds, functioned as a turning point viet period, two different models of government have in the public mood in Ingushetia, and served to cre- been used in Ingushetia by the two presidents that pre- ate a more constructive relationship between officials ceded Yevkurov. The charismatic Aushev’s (1993–2002) and opposition at all levels.
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