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Morning Focus August 6, 2018 Korea Morning Focus Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Kumho Petrochemical (011780/Buy/TP: W170,000) Raise TP KOSPI 2,287.68 17.48 0.77 Favorable cycles and enhanced earnings power; Raise TP KOSPI 200 295.61 2.06 0.70 KOSDAQ 788.81 7.43 0.95 KT (030200/Buy/TP: W35,000) In-line earnings Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 265,613 4,128 Economy & Strategy Update KOSPI 200 61,129 3,062 KOSDAQ 527,964 2,854 Fixed Income Monthly KTB yields to receive solid downside support Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,531,545 KOSDAQ 261,312 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,254 1,110 144 Institutional 912 992 -80 Retail 1,928 2,017 -89 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 265 275 -10 Institutional 140 146 -6 Retail 2,448 2,435 13 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,033 862 172 KOSDAQ 114 126 -12 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 639 198 57 KOSDAQ 779 354 108 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 45,750 200 340 LG Chem 391,000 16,000 163 Hynix 83,300 100 161 SAMSUNG BIOLOGICS 392,000 14,000 156 KODEX KOSDAQ150 15,330 410 129 LEVERAGE KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value NATURECELL 4,940 -2,090 128 NEXTCHIP 9,080 1,230 123 LB SEMICON 5,420 250 105 SillaJen 59,200 700 94 Dexter studios 11,350 1,250 78 Note: As of August 03, 2018 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research This document is a summary of a report prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Mirae Asset Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Kumho Petrochemical (011780 KS) Favorable cycles and enhanced earnings power; Raise TP Chemicals Enhanced earnings-generating capability and favorable cycles; Raise TP and recommend as one of our top picks Results Comment August 6, 2018 Enhanced earnings power and favorable cycles: After rallying on improving market conditions for synthetic rubbers and phenol derivatives in 4Q17 and 1Q18, Kumho Petrochemical’s stock has remained range-bound on the slowdown of synthetic rubbers and resins. However, given continued strength in phenol derivatives and improvements in energy resulting from higher oil prices, we believe overall earnings (Maintain) Buy power has increased. Moreover, we believe the resin cycle has bottomed out amid the recent weakness caused by overall demand contraction, and the synthetic rubber ▲ Target Price (12M, W) 170,000 market is likely to recover gradually on the absence of capacity expansion plans. Indeed, given limited capacity expansions for key products (phenol derivatives, Share Price (08/03/18, W) 110,500 synthetic rubbers, and synthetic resins) over the next two to three years, product cycles look favorable. Expected Return 54% Raise TP to W170,000 and add to top picks: We raise our target price on Kumho Petrochemical by 13% to W170,000 (from W150,000), reflecting upward adjustments to OP (18F, Wbn) 628 our synthetic rubber and phenol derivative earnings estimates. We also add the stock Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 586 to our list of top picks in the chemicals sector. We derived our target price by applying a P/E of 10x to our 12-month-forward EPS. We think our target multiple is justifiable, as EPS Growth (18F, %) 168.5 1) valuation is undemanding, considering the firm’s earnings-generating capability in Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 10.5 the current cycle; and 2) market conditions for key products are likely to improve P/E (18F, x) 6.5 further due to limited capacity expansions. Market P/E (18F, x) 9.0 KOSPI 2,287.68 2Q18 review: In-line earnings In-line earnings on healthy synthetic rubber and phenol derivative cycles: Kumho Market Cap (Wbn) 3,367 Petrochemical’s 2Q18 operating profit came in at W153.5bn, in line with the consensus. Shares Outstanding (mn) 33 Phenol derivative (BPA, etc.) earnings improved on robust market conditions. For Free Float (%) 56.9 synthetic rubbers, despite softening spreads (SBR, etc.), earnings expanded on higher Foreign Ownership (%) 30.1 NB-Latex prices. Meanwhile, synthetic resin earnings fell slightly QoQ on softening Beta (12M) 0.48 spreads, and energy earnings declined QoQ, hurt by large-scale maintenance. 52-Week Low 67,100 52-Week High 117,000 3Q18 preview: OP likely to decline slightly QoQ, but remain high; Earnings improvement through 2020 (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute -4.3 4.2 42.4 3Q18F OP of W147.7bn: We forecast 3Q18 operating profit at W147.7bn, declining Relative -5.0 15.1 48.6 slightly QoQ but remaining high nonetheless. For synthetic rubbers, margins on specialty products (e.g., NB-Latex) should remain high, partly offsetting a sharp 170 Kumho Petrochemical KOSPI narrowing of SBR spreads resulting from lackluster tire demand and high butadiene 150 prices. Synthetic resin earnings should decline on a weakening ABS cycle. In contrast, 130 the phenol derivative cycle should remain strong in 2H18, aided by wider BPA spreads 110 and capacity additions in downstream industries (e.g., PC). Energy earnings should also 90 improve, with rising oil prices likely to drive system marginal prices (SMP) higher. 70 7.17 11.17 3.18 7.18 We project Kumho Petrochemical’s earnings to expand further through 2020 on the back of improving cycles of key products (synthetic rubbers, etc.), for which capacity expansions will be limited over the next two to three years. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [Oil Refining/Chemicals/Renewables] FY (Dec.) 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Revenue (Wbn) 3,935 3,970 5,065 6,049 7,805 9,334 Yeon-ju Park +822-3774-1755 OP (Wbn) 164 157 263 628 777 955 [email protected] OP margin (%) 4.2 4.0 5.2 10.4 10.0 10.2 Minkyung Kim NP (Wbn) 119 73 214 573 653 791 +822-3774-1732 EPS (W) 3,550 2,187 6,377 17,121 19,507 23,609 [email protected] ROE (%) 7.6 4.6 12.3 27.1 24.2 23.4 P/E (x) 14.7 37.5 15.6 6.5 5.7 4.7 P/B (x) 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.0 Dividend yield (%) 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. August 6, 2018 Kumho Petrochemical Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18P 3Q18F 4Q18F 2017 2018F 2019F Revenue Total 1,408.2 1,239.1 1,205.2 1,212.3 1,339.9 1,441.8 1,669.3 1,598.1 5,064.8 6,049.1 7,804.6 Synthetic rubbers 636.2 499.5 463.5 468.9 474.5 516.6 611.3 540.1 2,068.1 2,142.5 3,403.3 Synthetic resins 303.5 293.8 308.9 299.3 299.6 324.1 338.6 338.6 1,205.5 1,301.0 1,423.1 Phenol derivatives 309.2 295.5 287.3 288.9 416.2 452.9 566.2 566.2 1,180.9 2,001.5 2,322.7 Energy 38.0 36.3 35.8 36.6 57.0 42.4 53.2 53.2 146.7 205.8 255.6 Other 121.3 114.0 109.6 118.6 92.6 105.8 100.0 100.0 463.5 398.4 400.0 Operating Total 65.7 44.2 57.8 95.0 165.8 153.5 147.7 160.8 262.7 627.8 776.9 profit Synthetic rubbers 12.7 5.0 9.3 23.4 33.2 41.3 18.3 27.0 50.4 119.9 189.0 Synthetic resins 9.1 8.8 21.6 18.0 24.0 16.2 10.2 16.9 57.5 67.3 71.2 Phenol derivatives 9.3 3.0 0.0 14.4 66.6 67.9 84.9 84.9 26.7 304.4 348.4 Energy 20.0 18.0 16.0 23.8 34.2 21.2 29.3 31.9 77.8 116.6 153.4 Other 14.6 9.3 10.8 15.4 7.8 6.8 5.0 0.0 50.1 19.7 15.0 Pretax profit 88.4 52.9 78.1 70.4 194.2 181.3 174.2 187.7 289.8 737.4 888.9 Net profit 69.1 36.7 56.5 51.3 132.1 175.3 128.0 137.9 213.6 573.4 653.3 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 KT (030200 KS) In-line earnings Telecom Service 2Q18 review: In-line OP Results Comment For 2Q18, KT announced revenue of W5.81tr and operating profit of W399.1bn.
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