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Morning Focus November 27, 2017 KOREA Morning Focus Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Kumho Petrochemical (011780/Buy/TP: W110,000) KOSPI 2,544.33 7.18 0.28 Upgrade rating & Present TP KOSPI 200 335.44 0.93 0.28 Nearing the end of a long tunnel KOSDAQ 792.74 -4.06 -0.51 Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 294,322 4,398 KOSPI 200 72,344 3,175 KOSDAQ 742,792 6,864 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,652,408 KOSDAQ 280,166 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 997 1,107 -111 Institutional 874 696 177 Retail 2,471 2,577 -106 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 475 540 -65 Institutional 353 284 69 Retail 6,061 6,057 4 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 886 852 33 KOSDAQ 181 208 -26 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 433 351 89 KOSDAQ 717 439 78 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value KODEX KOSDAQ150 LEVERAGE 19,825 -835 295 Samsung Electronics 2,773,000 8,000 245 Hynix 85,100 400 174 Daum Communications 148,000 -1,500 172 KOSEF MSB 101,630 -10 124 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value SillaJen 107,000 -17,300 665 Studio Dragon 71,800 16,500 430 Celltrion 214,900 -5,500 203 Celltrion Healthcare 86,100 -4,300 201 TELCON 8,700 200 197 Note: As of November 24, 2017 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research This document is a summary of a report prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Mirae Asset Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Kumho Petrochemical (011780 KS) Nearing the end of a long tunnel Chemicals Poised for across-the-board improvement over the next three years Company Update Poised for across-the-board improvement over the next three years: After November 27, 2017 experiencing a super-cycle from 2009 to early 2011, Kumho Petrochemical’s key products entered a period of market oversupply. However, within synthetic resins, capacity expansions for ABS were curtailed from 2014, eventually leading to spread improvements in 2017. Within synthetic rubbers, we expect the SBR cycle to recover in 2018. Driven by steady demand growth, coupled with limited capacity ramp-ups since (Upgrade) Buy 2015, excess capacity should be absorbed in 2018, pushing up the global utilization rate to the mid-80% level. Within phenol derivatives, we expect the BPA cycle to turn Target Price(12M, W) 110,000 around in 2018-19, as capacity expansions have been minimal since 2016, while sizeable capacity expansions for PC (a major source of demand) are planned in 2018. Share Price (11/24/17, W) 78,600 Improvements in the synthetic rubber and phenol derivative cycles should also benefit the energy business in the form of steam and power volume growth. Additionally, Expected Return 40% rising oil prices should lift energy selling prices, further supporting earnings growth. SBR and BPA cycles picking up: Spreads of SBR and BPA have lately been widening. OP (17F, Wbn) 232 SBR supply has tightened due to the suspension of Sinopec’s 100,000-tonne facility Consensus OP (17F, Wbn) 216 (equivalent to 1.5% of global capacity). While it remains to be seen what happens after the facility comes back online in mid-March next year, we still think SBR supply and EPS Growth (17F, %) 184.8 demand conditions will tighten in 2018, regardless of the facility’s restart, leading to Market EPS Growth (17F, %) 45.9 better spreads YoY. BPA spreads have also been expanding as a result of some P/E (17F, x) 12.6 production disruptions and anti-dumping issues. Given no meaningful capacity Market P/E (17F, x) 10.4 additions for BPA on the horizon in 2018-19, but large capacity ramp-ups for PC KOSPI 2,544.33 planned in 2018, we see BPA spreads improving YoY in 2018. Market Cap (Wbn) 2,395 Earnings to improve faster than consensus on volume growth, margin Shares Outstanding (mn) 33 pickup Free Float (%) 56.9 Rapid earnings growth expected: Backed by the pickup in SBR and BPA spreads, we Foreign Ownership (%) 28.0 forecast Kumho Petrochemical’s 4Q17 operating profit to improve to W64.4bn, above Beta (12M) 1.15 the consensus (W52.3bn). For 2018, we expect operating profit to grow to W350.2bn, 52-Week Low 67,100 much faster than the consensus (W255.8bn). As the markets for key chemical products 52-Week High 92,300 recover, the company should enjoy spread expansion as well as volume growth from (%) 1M 6M 12M higher utilization. This should also benefit the energy business, supporting strong Absolute 15.2 1.2 4.4 overall earnings growth. Relative 12.8 -7.9 -19.1 Upgrade to Buy and Present TP of W110,000 140 Kumho Petrochemical KOSPI Upgrade to Buy and Present TP of W110,000: We upgrade our rating on Kumho 130 Petrochemical to Buy from Hold and present a target price of W110,000. We derived 120 our target price by applying a P/B of 1.8x (2018-20F ROE of 18%) to our 2018F BPS. 110 Based on our 2018F EPS, our target price implies a P/E of 13x. While higher than those 100 of peers, we view our valuation multiple as reasonable, given the rapid earnings 90 growth expected over the next three years. We believe consensus-beating earnings 80 11.16 3.17 7.17 11.17 growth will drive the company’s shares higher. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Oil Refining/Chemicals/Renewables] FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F Revenue (Wbn) 4,766 3,935 3,970 5,077 5,996 7,614 Yeon-ju Park +822-3774-1755 OP (Wbn) 185 164 157 232 350 551 [email protected] OP margin (%) 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.6 5.8 7.2 Minkyung Kim NP (Wbn) 93 119 73 209 274 431 +822-3774-1732 EPS (W) 2,782 3,550 2,187 6,229 8,167 12,875 [email protected] ROE (%) 6.1 7.6 4.6 12.1 14.0 18.9 P/E (x) 29.0 14.7 37.5 12.6 9.6 6.1 P/B (x) 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 Dividend yield (%) 1.9 1.5 1.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Key Universe Valuations November 27, 2017 ※All data as of close November 23, 2017, unless otherwise noted. 17F Earnings growth Mkt Cap Price P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Ticker Company Div Yield OP EPS (Wbn) (W) (%) 17F 18F 17F 18F 17F 18F 17F 18F 17F 18F 005930 Samsung Electronics 357,990 2,773,000 1.2 87.4 19.7 101.3 27.5 10.1 7.9 1.9 1.5 21.0 21.9 000660 SK Hynix 61,953 85,100 0.7 309.1 11.3 260.3 6.7 5.8 5.5 1.8 1.4 36.9 29.0 005380 Hyundai Motor 35,024 159,000 2.5 0.5 17.2 -20.0 31.5 10.5 8.0 0.6 0.6 6.3 7.8 051910 LG Chem 29,896 423,500 1.4 53.1 8.0 61.3 14.8 15.1 13.2 2.0 1.8 14.5 14.6 005490 POSCO 27,900 320,000 3.0 67.8 8.8 124.4 7.7 9.1 8.5 0.6 0.6 7.1 7.2 032830 Samsung Life 27,000 135,000 - - - - 0.0 0.0 035420 NAVER 26,700 810,000 0.1 13.7 26.5 12.2 32.6 31.7 23.9 4.4 3.8 19.9 20.7 068270 Celltrion 26,361 214,900 - - - - 0.0 0.0 207940 Samsung Biologics 25,110 379,500 - 1031.1 - - - 582.5 6.3 6.3 - 1.1 012330 Hyundai Mobis 24,871 255,500 1.4 -17.3 18.4 -18.7 19.4 10.1 8.4 0.8 0.7 8.3 9.2 015760 KEPCO 24,427 38,050 2.4 -46.5 20.5 -51.9 19.1 7.2 6.0 0.3 0.3 4.7 5.5 105560 KB Financial Group 23,707 56,700 137.9 11.5 49.2 -0.6 6.9 6.9 0.7 0.6 10.4 9.6 055550 Shinhan Financial Group 22,643 47,750 40.9 -0.2 23.4 -1.1 6.7 6.8 0.7 0.6 10.5 9.6 017670 SK Telecom 21,115 261,500 3.8 6.1 4.9 65.0 8.4 7.6 7.0 1.1 1.0 16.5 16.1 034730 SK Holdings 21,003 298,500 1.2 11.0 9.6 160.5 12.3 10.6 9.5 1.4 1.2 14.5 14.5 096770 SK Innovation 18,955 205,000 3.9 -3.3 3.0 40.2 0.3 8.2 8.2 1.0 1.0 13.2 12.3 051900 LG Household & Health Care 18,258 1,169,000 0.7 7.7 10.5 16.4 10.2 31.3 28.4 6.8 5.7 24.1 22.3 090430 AmorePacific 17,947 307,000 0.6 -25.9 41.3 -29.4 49.7 47.0 31.4 5.0 4.4 11.2 15.1 033780 KT&G 16,681 121,500 3.2 3.6 5.3 -12.9 11.8 15.6 13.9 2.2 2.0 15.0 15.8 251270 Netmarble Games Corporation 16,027 188,500 84.7 16.0 62.7 17.6 45.1 38.4 3.8 3.5 13.2 9.5 006400 Samsung SDI 15,988 232,500 0.4 - 366.2 236.5 54.7 22.2 14.3 1.4 1.3 6.7 9.7 018260 Samsung SDS 15,553 201,000 0.4 18.2 10.1 13.7 12.1 29.5 26.3 2.8 2.6 9.9 10.2 003550 LG Corp.
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