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The 'Flip-Flop' Approach to Terrorism

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The 'Flip-Flop' Approach to Terrorism The ‘flip-flop’ approach to terrorism An Analysis of the Responses of Successive Nigerian Governments to the ongoing Insurgency of Boko Haram CRISIS AND SECURITY MANAGEMENT MASTER’S THESIS AUTHOR BASTIAAN SMEETS STUDENT NUMBER 1044427 SUPERVISOR: PROF. A.P. SCHMID SECOND READER: PROF. DR. E. BAKKER DATE 11 AUGUST 2016 ABSTRACT Governments may deal with terrorist organizations in numerous ways, depending on numerous circumstances. The options available to governments range from legal reforms to intelligence gathering and from negotiations with terrorists to violent repression. This thesis uses qualitative research methods in order to describe which of these options have been pursued by successive Nigerian governments, in order to deal with Boko Haram, Nigeria’s most radical and violent Islamic sect. To date, the battle is still ongoing. Countless military operations had for a long time not yielded satisfying results. However, recent developments show significant gains due to the involvement of neighboring countries and foreign mercenaries. Other efforts, including the introduction of counterterrorism legislation, negotiations with representatives of the sect, and the consideration of an amnesty programme, have all failed to adequately address the issue of Boko Haram. In the meantime, the government appears to have mostly neglected underlying grievances in society, which in theory may fuel a terrorist campaign. Whether this is the case regarding Nigeria remains unclear, however the government should be aware of the possibility of newly emerging terrorist organizations after Boko Haram, when such grievances remain unaddressed. 1 Table of contents ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................ 1 LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS .............................................................................................. 4 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 5 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................................................... 6 3 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK .......................................................................................................... 10 4 RESEARCH PROPOSITION .............................................................................................................. 11 4.1 Central research question ........................................................................................................... 11 4.2 Hypotheses .................................................................................................................................. 11 5 RESEARCH DESIGN ......................................................................................................................... 13 5.1 Objectives .................................................................................................................................... 13 5.2 Type of Research ......................................................................................................................... 13 5.3 Methods ...................................................................................................................................... 14 5.4 Justification .................................................................................................................................. 15 5.5 Limitations ................................................................................................................................... 15 6 CASE DESCRIPTION ........................................................................................................................ 17 6.1 Brief political history of Nigeria ................................................................................................... 17 6.2 Demographics .............................................................................................................................. 18 6.2.1 Population ..................................................................................................................... 18 6.2.2 Religion .......................................................................................................................... 18 6.2.3 Ethnic groups ................................................................................................................. 19 6.3 Recent history of domestic conflict ............................................................................................. 20 6.3.1 Conflict in the Niger Delta ............................................................................................. 20 6.3.2 Maitatsine uprisings ...................................................................................................... 23 6.4 Religious militant movements in Nigeria .................................................................................... 24 6.4.1 Boko Haram ................................................................................................................... 24 6.4.2 Ansaru ............................................................................................................................ 28 6.4.3 Maitatsine/Kala Kato ..................................................................................................... 28 6.4.4 Izala ................................................................................................................................ 29 7 ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................................................... 30 7.1 Responses to underlying grievances ........................................................................................... 30 7.1.1 Context .......................................................................................................................... 30 7.1.2 Government responses ................................................................................................. 34 7.2 Political responses ....................................................................................................................... 40 7.2.1 Context .......................................................................................................................... 40 7.2.2 Government responses ................................................................................................. 43 2 7.3 Legal responses ........................................................................................................................... 47 7.3.1 Context .......................................................................................................................... 47 7.3.2 Government responses ................................................................................................. 50 7.4 Military responses ....................................................................................................................... 53 7.4.1 Government responses ................................................................................................. 53 7.5 Comprehensive response to Boko Haram– a draft of Nigeria’s National Counter-Terrorism Strategy ............................................................................................................................................. 59 8 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................. 60 9 RECOMMENDATION ...................................................................................................................... 64 10 DISCUSSION ................................................................................................................................... 64 11 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................... 65 Appendix A ............................................................................................................................................ 74 Appendix B ............................................................................................................................................ 83 Map of Nigeria. Source: International Organization for Migration (2016). 3 LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS APC All Progressives Congress AQAP Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula AQIM Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb BH Boko Haram GTD Global Terrorism Database IDP Internally Displaced People IMN Islamic Movement in Nigeria INEC Independent National Electoral Commission JTF ORO Joint Task Force Operation Restore Order LGA Local Government Area MEND Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta MNJTF Multi-National Joint Task Force NA National Assembly NACTEST National Counter-Terrorism Strategy PDP People’s Democratic Party START National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 4 1 INTRODUCTION The issue of how to handle militant religious movements in general and militant jihadist movements in particular, is one of great concern to several countries throughout the world, mainly in Africa and the Middle East. Such movements tend to challenge a country’s government, or ‘the state’, one of its most valuable properties: the sole authority over a demarcated territory, in terms of legislative powers and monopoly of violence. Especially
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