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Atmospheric Circulation Analysis 15 FEBRUARY 2010 N A Z E M O S ADAT AND GHAEDAMINI 887 On the Relationships between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Precipitation Variability in Southern Iran and the Arabian Peninsula: Atmospheric Circulation Analysis M. J. NAZEMOSADAT AND H. GHAEDAMINI Water Engineering Department, College of Agriculture, Climate Research Center, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran (Manuscript received 9 July 2007, in final form 28 August 2009) ABSTRACT The influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on daily, monthly, and seasonal precipitation was investigated for southern Iran and the Arabian Peninsula using November–April data for the period of 1979– 2005. The positive MJO phase is considered to be the periods for which the enhanced convection center was placed over the south Indonesian–north Australian region. On the other hand, the convection center shifts over the western Indian Ocean tropics and most of the study area as the negative MJO phase prevails. Seasonal precipitation and the frequency of wet events were significantly increased during the negative phase. The ratios of the precipitation amount during the negative phase to the corresponding values during the positive phase were about 1.75–2.75 and 2.75–4.00 for the southwestern and southeastern parts of Iran, respectively. This ratio reached to about 3.00 for Riyadh, 4.20 and 5.50 for Masqat and Doha, 2.10 for Kuwait, and 1.20 for Bahrain. The results of the seasonal and monthly analysis were generally found to be consistent, although because of the smaller sample size the outcomes of the monthly investigations were less statistically significant. While the negative MJO phase does not have a consistent effect on March precipitation over some parts of southern Iran, it has consistently enhanced precipitation over the eastern and southern coasts of the peninsula in Oman, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia. During the negative MJO phase, while enhanced low-level southerly winds transfer a substantial amount of moisture to the study area, upward motion increases in the middle layers of the atmosphere. Synchronized with the prevalence of these rain-bearing southerly winds, the existence of a strong horizontal wind speed gradient at the exit region of the North Africa–Arabian jet enhances precipitation. The jet exit, which was mostly located over Egypt in November, moved westward into the study area in Iran and Saudi Arabia during the rainy period of January–March. The direction of near-surface wind anomalies changed from mostly southeasterly in November to southwesterly in March and April, influencing precipitation pattern during various months of the rainy season. In contrast to the negative phase, an enhanced low-level dry northerly wind and suppressed horizontal wind speed gradient at the jet exits are the main characteristics of atmospheric circulation over the study area during the positive MJO phase. Furthermore, an increased downward air motion at the middle levels of the atmosphere and a significant shortage in precipitation are the other climatic components of the southwest Asian region during such a period. 1. Introduction ciated period ranging from 30 to 60 days. In its active stage, the MJO is associated with increased convective The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is known as the activity over the equatorial eastern Indian and western primary mode of large-scale intraseasonal variability in Pacific Oceans. Trailing the active center is a region of tropical regions (Madden and Julian 1994). Donald et al. suppressed convective activity and near-surface-level (2004) characterized the MJO as a 40-day wave that westerly wind. develops over the tropical Indian Ocean and then travels Since the discovery of the oscillation, many studies east across the tropics at 5–10 m s21. The phenomenon have shown that MJO also affects extratropical weather has a frequency of 6–12 events per year, with an asso- and climate systems (Liebmann and Hartmann 1984; Krishnamurti et al. 1997). Moreover, it has been shown that the MJO strongly influences the monsoon-related Corresponding author address: Mohamad J. Nazemosadat, Water Engineering Department, College of Agriculture, Climate precipitation patterns in Asia and Australia, and mod- Research Center, Shiraz University, Shiraz 71441-65186, Iran. erately influences precipitation in North and South E-mail: [email protected] America (Lau and Chan 1986; Mo 2000; Paegle et al. DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2141.1 Ó 2010 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/07/21 04:00 AM UTC 888 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 23 2000; Higgins and Shi 2001; Carvalho et al. 2004; Donald characterized by low amounts and high variability of et al. 2006). The MJO has also been linked with en- precipitation as well as a high potential for evapotrans- hanced precipitation and increased incidence of floods piration (Sadeghi et al. 2002; Sormana and Abdulrazzak in northwestern parts of the United States, although its 1995). The average annual precipitation in southern Iran influence was found to be substantially different dur- varies from about 600 mm in western and central areas ing early versus late winter (Bond and Vecchi 2003). to less than 100 mm in the east, with precipitation gen- Hendon et al. (2000) found that forecasts in the tropics erally occurring between November and April. The in- and midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during tensity and frequency of hydrometeorological disasters boreal winter have less skill when they are initialized are generally greater for this part of the country than either during or prior to periods of active MJO as opposed other areas. For the accessible stations in the Arabian to quiescent episodes of the oscillation. Donald et al. Peninsula, annual precipitation varied from about (2006) have provided a mechanistic basis for an MJO- 105 mm in Riyadh to 20 mm in Thumrait (Fig. 1). Re- based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather– liable prediction of seasonal and intraseasonal pre- climate divide for tropical and extratropical weather cipitation in these regions is considered a challenge for states. Maloney and Hartmann (1998) and Maloney and climate researchers. Kiehl (2002) introduced an MJO index for characteriz- Recent studies have shown that major teleconnec- ing the intensity and state of the MJO. After this, tion patterns, including ENSO and sea surface temper- Wheeler and Hendon (2004) developed another index atures over both the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea, have for monitoring and predicting the MJO. a significant impact on rainfall in Iran (Nazemosadat Barlow et al. (2005) analyzed the impact of the MJO and Cordery 2000; Nazemosadat 2001; Nazemosadat on daily precipitation in southwest Asia for the period and Mousavi 2001; Nazemosadat and Ghasemi 2004; from 1979 to 2002. They showed that the MJO signals Nazemosadat et al. 2006). Chakraborty et al. (2006) can modulate regional precipitation with strength com- have analyzed the influences of the Indian Ocean parable to interannual variability. Furthermore, the MJO- dipole (IOD) and ENSO on tropospheric moisture associated winds aloft, which are largest poleward and over Saudi Arabia. They reported an increased atmo- to the west of the primary tropical rainfall anomalies, spheric moisture flux during El Nin˜ oandthepositive are shown to have a clear influence on the local jet struc- IOD phase. ture in southwest Asia. They have suggested further Given the predictability of the MJO out to at least research by including several key areas with more ob- 4 weeks in combination with its strong influence on re- servational data of precipitation and consistent report- gional precipitation (Wheeler and Hendon 2004; Donald ing, for the verification of their results based on outgoing et al. 2006), the outcome of the study could potentially longwave radiation (OLR) data. Also, Mariotti (2007) improve subseasonal forecasting of dry and wet periods has indicated that the enhanced precipitation in south- over the study regions. The applied analysis, hopefully, west central Asia during El Nin˜o–Southern Oscillation bridges the gap between synoptic and subseasonal fore- (ENSO) events results from an anomalous southwesterly casting, which is an essential component for risk man- moisture flux coming from the Arabian Sea and tropical agement in west Asian areas. The goals of the study are, Africa, which is generated along the northwestern flank therefore, to examine the effects of the MJO extreme of the high pressure anomaly over the Indian and western phases on precipitation and the frequency of dry or wet Pacific Oceans, which is part of the canonical ENSO sea- events in southern Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. saw pressure anomalies. Moreover, the impact of these phases on atmospheric An assessment of the effects of the MJO with respect circulations over the study region is analyzed. to atmospheric circulation features, including moisture transport, was not a major focus of Barlow et al. (2005). Also, the study of rainfall variability and atmospheric 2. Data circulation over Iran and the Arabian Peninsula that is a. The MJO indices and their relationships the main concern of the present study was not the theme of their investigation. In addition to a seasonal analysis, Based on the first two principal components (PC1 and the present study also examines the effects of the MJO PC2) of the bandpass-filtered 850-hPa zonal wind data extreme phases on precipitation and atmospheric cir- over the equatorial (58N–58S) ocean waters (globally), culation on the monthly time scale, which was not the Maloney and Hartmann (1998) and Maloney and Kiehl focus of earlier studies. (2002) introduced an MJO index by adding PC1 to the Almost all of the Arabian Peninsula and the southern value of PC2 12 days later (hereafter the MH index). regions of Iran (Fig. 1) are situated in a region that is Their PC1 time series is most closely associated with Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/07/21 04:00 AM UTC 15 FEBRUARY 2010 N A Z E M O S ADAT AND GHAEDAMINI 889 FIG.
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