Defence Climate Change Risk Assessment

Case Study Defence climate change risk assessment Overview Background This case study describes the process used by the The Department of Defence (Defence) has the most Australian Department of Defence to undertake extensive land and property holding in Australia, climate risk assessments and adaptation planning at comprising more than 3 million hectares of land and some of its coastal sites. It shows how an Australian 25,000 buildings, with a replacement value in excess of government agency is taking into account the impacts $32 billion. Defence also has large training areas and of climate change on its assets and planning to adapt. bases close to the coastline. The approach included the development of a Site These coastal sites and assets are likely to be affected Assessment Methodology and Framework (SAMF), by sea-level rise and changes in storm surge and king which focusses on the assessment of risk for existing tides. In 2011, Defence initiated a two-stage climate assets including the following steps: change risk assessment process. 1. Establish risk context The first stage involved a high level assessment 2. Identify risks of likely risk exposure to climate change at each coastal site. This first pass assessment, Assessment 3. Assess risks of the Impact of Climate Change Induced Sea Level 4. Evaluate risks Change on Significant Defence Bases, focused on 5. Develop a list of possible risk treatment sea-level rise and coastal flooding. While the scope was not detailed enough to plan for adaptation, it 6. Communicate risks. enabled Defence to decide which sites required The application of the SAMF methodology is more detailed investigations. described through two examples: Royal Australian Air The second stage involved a more in-depth study Force (RAAF) Base Townsville and the Horn and Yorke aiming to help Defence take the next step. This was Islands facilities. to understand in more detail the actual risk exposure of the sites identified as at-risk in the first stage, and which adaptation measures would be likely to minimise these future risks. Changes in fluvial flooding and coastal erosion were also considered in this stage. This approach will enable investment and planning decisions to be made with greater confidence. coastadapt.com.au Evaluation criteria Risk Assessment The SAMF based its risk assessment framework on the A Site Assessment Methodology and Framework following three documents: (SAMF) was developed to guide the second stage of more detailed assessment. The key steps in the SAMF • Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: are described below. A guide for Business and Government (Australian Greenhouse Office 2006) 1. Establish risk context • AS-5334-2013: Climate Change Adaptation for Settlements and Infrastructure: A risk based The SAMF defines the following factors when approach (Standards Australia 2013) undertaking a detailed climate risk assessment for a Estate Risk Assessment Guidance: For Estate coastal site identified as at risk: • Maintenance (Department of Defence 2012). Objectives and scope Climate change scenarios The objective in this study was to enable Defence The ‘A1F1’ greenhouse gas emissions scenario was to understand and manage the risks associated with selected as the basis for consideration in the SAMF. climate hazards of fluvial flooding, coastal flooding This is a set of future emission scenarios identified and coastal erosion. The assessment was informed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by projected changes to sea-level rise and extreme (IPCC) in its Special Report on Emissions Scenarios rainfall and made across three timeframes: 2040, 2070 (SRES). The A1F1 is the highest emissions growth and 2100. scenario of the SRES family. Stakeholders to be engaged or consulted The SAMF suggests that Defence operational 2. Identify risks managers, base managers and personnel who operate or reside at the site should provide input into the data The SAMF provides guidance on collating risk collection process, risk identification and adaptation identification information and compiling a list of planning components of the assessment. In addition, base-specific risks. A variety of spatial, climatic and external stakeholders including technical experts and site information is required to identify and inform local or state government agencies could assist in the analysis of risks posed by fluvial flooding, provision of data, identification of risks and technical coastal flooding and coastal erosion. Risks were reviews of findings. documented in a table against a set of risk themes, specifically: buildings, site access and internal Key risk dimensions used to guide the assessment roads, pier and marine infrastructure, runways and To efficiently identify and analyse the risks, a set of aviation infrastructure, utilities, environmental assets, risk dimensions were identified outlining Defence’s contamination and heritage. key organisational, base and activity-related concerns. These were designed to prompt expert and 3. Assess risks stakeholder input and make sure that all important This step of the SAMF guided the assessment of the issues were raised. The dimensions were: capability, identified risks by: occupational health and safety, legislative compliance, environment and heritage, financial efficiency, • undertaking detailed site assessment personnel, and reputation. • identifying and reviewing the current controls • rating the consequences and likelihood of each risk to determine the risk level and rating. coastadapt.com.au 4. Risk evaluation For each adaptation solution or option, the scores for each criteria were added to reach an overall priority This stage determines which risks require treatment rating score, with the ‘urgency’ criteria weighted as a priority. Those risks identified as medium, high (x2) to add emphasis to the most urgent actions to and very high in 2040 were deemed to require the reduce risk. Consistent with the Defence risk rating development of risk treatments. process, the lower the score, the higher the priority for implementation. 5. Develop a list of possible risk treatment The overall priority rating score was used as a first filter to rank and assess the potential timing for The aim of the risk treatment step is to identify implementation of adaptation options. The SAMF solutions to reduce the identified risks at each site. indicates that Defence should consider existing However, having a list of adaptation solutions is programs and budgetary commitments before not enough to enable decision making, even when finalising the timing for implementation of each supported by a robust risk assessment process— adaptation option. solutions must also be prioritised for implementation. To do this, the SAMF provides the framework for a 6. Communicate risks multi-criteria analysis (MCA) including criteria, scores The SAMF outlines methods of communication to and definitions (Table 1). ensure the findings are accessible to support decision making, including provision of information for both technical and non-technical audiences (e.g. workshops, reports, animations, summary sheets and fact sheets). Table 1: Adaptation prioritisation criteria and weighting for MCA. Source: Department of Defence. High (1) Medium (2) Low (3) Effectiveness to reduce High potential to reduce risk risk to multiple Defence Moderate potential to Potential to reduce risk is operations and/or asset reduce risk to a Defence low or uncertain types and/or to reduce operation and/or asset multiple risks Cost Cost is minor Cost is moderate Cost is major ($0-$500 K) ($500-$15 M) (>$15 M) Significance of action Several adaptation actions rely on this being done Another adaptation action first or they will no longer relies on this being done first be required if this action or implementation means Does not influence is implemented or is the another adaptation action primary treatment of risk to a may no longer be required critical asset Community acceptance Potentially no conflict Possible conflict with Likely conflict with with communities for communities for communities for implementation and/or will implementation and/or may implementation and/or may provide broader social and provide broader social and generate negative social and environmental benefits environmental benefits environmental impacts Urgency Should be completed Should be completed Should be completed (x2 weighting) within the next 10 years to before 2040 to avoid risk before 2070 to avoid risk avoid current risk coastadapt.com.au Sea-level rise was not a major global or local concern Example 1: RAAF when many of these major airports were developed. Base Townsville This lack of awareness of sea-level rise, combined with the coastal location, is likely to result in increasing RAAF Base Townsville is a major Defence base in exposure to inundation for many major and minor Northern Australia and a joint user facility with the airports worldwide. Townsville Airport Pty Ltd (Figure 1). It is located north-west of the city of Townsville. This example The Townsville RAAF Base falls into this category. outlines the investigation undertaken by Defence The joint facility is in a location that is low-lying and in relation to coastal risks and potential impacts will be increasingly exposed to flooding as a result of climate change (steps 1 and 2 of the SAMF). For of sea-level rise. At present, inundation is primarily more information about the city of Townsville and its associated with the monsoon wet season and the exposure to coastal hazards

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