The Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll

for the week of October 15

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012

Who will win the race for speaker in January?

• "But it won't be pretty. And before integrity and respectability will its over there will be others that will prevail." be trying to see if they can pull together a deal with the demos." • "It will be difficult to keep some of his votes together. Dick Armey will • "Right wing pressure isn't great mobilize the grassroots and some will enough yet to dislodge a speaker jump ship, but in the end the Dems who's done a good job for his will stick by him ensuring him the members." victory."

• "Joe Straus has the advantage of a • "Hughes can't win -- TRL won't let district that understands the wisdom him and Dems will elect Straus" of having a hometown Speaker. Let MQS bluster, the Speaker is safe at • "Gets criticized by both parties. home and will remain Speaker as long Common sense guy. If not him, as he so desires." where do the D's go?"

• "Joe has worked tirelessly this • "Phil King is actively meeting with interim to facilitate strong alliances freshman in the hopes that he can be a from the newly elected members. Joe's fall back candidate after news of

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 Hughes' trial lawyer proclivities are • "Sam Texas has a better chance of found out by the radical right." defeating than Bryan Hughes has of defeating Joe Straus." • "There is no speaker's race. Some people are trying to create the • "How can R members vote for a trial appearance of a speaker's race for lawyer as Speaker? TLR and business their personal benefit and ulterior groups will work to oust any R who motives, but that doesn't make it the does." real deal." • "With the predicted D gains, the • "Would everyone please stop asking number of Rs Strays needs will drop this already?" to a manageable level."

• "Really? I've got a better chance of • "Straus survived in 2011 after a winning the lottery then does Hughes wave election ushered in a large becoming Speaker." number of new very conservative members. While he lost some • "I thought this was a done deal until lieutenants in this year's primary, Freedom Works got into the game. some potentially adversarial members They wreaked Dewhurst's US Senate also lost. Plus, there will be 6 or 8 new effort and might do the same in a Democrats in the House in 2013. Speaker's race." Where else are they going to go?"

• "None of the conservatives want to • "If 'someone else' was going to enter be seen as Straus supporters to the Tea the race, he/she should have done so Party, but all of them say he is a great before Freedom Works backed Bryan Speaker and they get a lot done with Hughes." him in the Chair." • "Straus, but not without ceding to • "Democrats should pick their own some conservative demands for more Speaker candidate, act like a real conservative R chairs, letting vouchers opposition party and leave the through, or similar." Republicans to eat their own. But alas, they will get suckered."

Will outside groups and activists have any real influence on the outcome of the Speakers' race?

• "I think a lot of it will depend on the • "No, but some will sure try." outcome from the November election and how that defines the make up of • "Right wing groups will make life the House." difficult for Republican members.... some won't be able to withstand the • "But a few members will believe pressure" outside groups wave a bigger stick than they actually do." • "Tread lightly, FreedomWorks. Those eligible to cast a ballot in this

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 race are not the same as the gullible • "If by real influence you mean right-wing base of the GOP. Texas change the result, no way" legislators will resent your efforts to pressure them. Well, the reasonable • "The threat from the Right will ones will anyway." continue to push Straus to the Right, but it will not be enough to unseat • "God help the Texas Republican him. Simpson in '15, however, is who questions the GOP street cred of another matter." Joci Straus' son." • "See above." • "Many consultants and companies are using their personal relationships • "Full of sound and fury, signifying with candidates and newly elected nothing." legislators to actively promote Straus' record and effective leadership." • "Operative word being 'real'. They will take the uninformed crazies and • "They will try." whip them into a froth like egg whites but to the same end - it's really just a • "Outside groups will make the race meaningless dollop of crap!" closer than it should be." • "Outside groups will kick up a lot of • "They'll try again but fail" dust, the long-term interest of the Republican Party is not to be pushed • "Geren runs the house" further to the right and members will take that into account even if only • "They will make life miserable for quietly." everyone involved, but they will not be successful." • "But only marginally."

• "Outside groups need to beat on • "Any outside group/activist who Speaker Strauss as an excuse for can influence a legislator's raising money and whipping up the constituents can influence a fervor of their rank and file legislator's vote for Speaker." supporters, and therefore none of these attacks are really about Strauss • "They barely influence each other. or any serious effort to replace him." Spend and borrow Republicans and tax and spend Democrats. God, please • "I think most of the groups who will don't elect someone with a brain or an influence the Speaker's race will have open mind!" offices within several blocks of the Capital." • "It will force people to stand up to extremist groups. Time to decide what • "MQS, et al, will try to meddle, but kind of Texas you want." they won't be successful." • "Lots of noise; no real influence." • "The lobby." • "Who knows who the members listen to these days and the new ones

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 may be more prone to listening to • "All smoke no fire" outside influencers" • "The answer is fresh in the mind of • "A lot of noise, then the final vote the current Speaker, which is that he will be nearly unanimous for Straus." lost 5 of his lieutenants. The 'people' will have their say." • "Their influence is in the actual election of members at the ballot box. I • "This is between the brothers, Kay." don't think they'll have much impact on Speaker politics." • "No, not in the end."

Which chamber will be more likely to pass 'hot-button' bills next session?

• "The senate is a forgone conclusion officer of the Senate seems to have to pass all their anti bills next session; more incentive to cater to the 'hot anti-public education, anti-poor, anti- button' end of the spectrum, as well as public health, anti-voting rights for a new-found willingness to do so." minorities..." • "Who'd a thunk we'd look to the • "The amount of crazy coming out of house for temperance." the Senate will be astounding." • "What was the name of that movie • "House is more likely to pass them with Jim Carey and Jeff Daniels?" quicker. And while the new makeup of the Senate will have more empathy • "Right wing ends charade! Will for those bills, as long as the 2/3rds move Texas beyond the boundaries of Rule is around, those hot button bills absurdity. Midland Mayor vows to will take a little longer." forego city charter, 'Texas is no longer safe for ''W' conservatives.' Michael • "With the new Senate makeup, the Quinn Sullivan escapes to Park Slope." R's will become the Texas House Lite. How the mighty Senate has fallen" • "Any way you slice it -- Joe Straus is still more conservative than David • "Here comes the voucher battles and Dewhurst. He will continue to lead this time it just may prevail." the House more in line with a conservative Texas." • "Depends on and if the 2/3 rule is suspended" • "For the first time in my political lifetime." • "2/3rds rule is history." • "Hot potato. Neither side wants to • "Passing any significant measure fail to address state's 'emergency' requires the help, direct or indirect, of issues TSA Vouchers Sanctuary cities" the person in charge. The presiding

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 • "The Lt. Gov. has something to primary challenges that they won't prove." dare to vote no. And in the Senate, it's possible that a majority might be all • "Thank God for the House. Can you that's needed - depending on the imagine its come to this? Vouchers, er, future health of the two-thirds rule." I mean tax credits die in the House." • "They always do but vouchers may • "Even though Dewhurst has much come from the senate and that is a hot to prove to the Republican primary button issue" electorate, the House is just a lot easier to operate and to move to decision." • "Plenty of crazies in both chambers. Finally." • "Trick question? Like the senate has killed a bill at any point in living • "Similar to DC, the House is where memory?" the firebrand energy is. The Senate still tends to apply the brakes, though • "DD has no reason to hold back on Dewhurst's new committee chairs far right craziness. Straus will be the may alter that some." reasonable man he is, except for a few bills." • "Dewhurst wants to 'right' the ship. That is apparent in his committee • "With Davis likely gone and appointments." Dewhurst stacking the deck on committees, prepare for some wild • "Dew is desperate to be invited to bills from the upper chamber." the Tea Party and will greenlight anything he thinks will get him there. • "Once that stuff gets to the floor, a The brakes on crazy (no Ogden, etc.) majority will be sufficiently afraid of get thinner and thinner."

Be the Pundit: What’s your take on the Senate committee assignments announced last week?

• "I don't see anything nefarious in Zaffirini away from Higher Ed is a big the announcement." blow to the Democrats as whatever 'partisanship' existed in the East • "Political payback." Chamber is now gone."

• "Poor pitiful pathetic Dewhurst." • "Dewhurst for (fill in name of higher office here)" • "Dewhurst is sticking with his 'conservative' values espoused during • "It's an indication that vouchers will the recent US Senate campaign by pass the Senate and 's naming Patrick to chair Senate assault on the University of Texas will Education and Seliger to Higher receive a thorough hearing in the Education. Eliminating the Senate Senate." IRT Committee and removing Sen.

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 • "The 'Dew' decided to move to the • "Not remarkable, lots of spots to fill" right in hopes that he can somehow still be a statewide factor." • "Extra! Extra! Lieutenant Governor caves to far right in desperate attempt • "Seliger was the victim of the to live down his embarrassing defeat." commitment that the Lt. Gov. had to make to get Patrick's endorsement in • "Zaffirini finally reaps what she the runoff. He basically trumped the sows." commitment Seliger had. Fraser gets the credit for busting Zaffirini, saying • "Dewhurst kept Democrats in that she was raising too much money leadership positions despite pressure to be used against republicans from from the far right to bust all chairman. the higher ed community. She will He understands he has to balance knife him sometime in the session." committees in order to be effective. He will still feel a ripple effect from • "Smart moves. Better fits." dissatisfaction of moderates with the Patrick versus Seliger decision." • "Dewhurst trying to convince folks he's Tea Party friendly - good luck!" • "Dew takes a hard right.... Dem's are angry, but who will notice when the • "Dewhurst appears to be running new 19 vote rule takes effect." for office again, probably Lt. Gov. He covered the bases well from both the • "Tea Party suck-up time." important governance issues, as well as linchpin-pin party issues." • "First blush Zaffirini gets popped, deeper analysis, she will be even more • "Dewhurst caves yet again to involved on higher ed form the floor emerging ultra-conservative mucking it up for everyone." majority.... he hastened to placate key members before they could organize • "Melting toward heat not realizing and strip him of some powers" you can't reason w ideologues and sociopaths" • "Dewhurst adapting to the shift of power that is coming with the new • "No surprise whatsoever" Senators. If he is going to be taken seriously as a 2014 re-election • "The Dew made a technical error contender then he has to make this trying to go to the right. 1) He has shift. The committee member already been labeled as a moderate by assignments in a couple months the Republican base. It doesn't matter should be even more evidence of this what he says or does, he will always shift to the right. If he doesn't tilt be to the left of the base; 2) He has certain committees to the right then empowered those that will most likely he'll leave his flank wide open to threatened his re-election; and 3) He attack from conservative groups." has relinquished most of his power and won't be able to govern. Has • "Hell hath no fury like a Zaffirini anyone acquired knowledge from scorned." studying the ways of Lt Guv Bullock?"

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 • "The Dew didn't follow the party • "It looks like a bad year for teachers line except for Patrick and is still and water towers. Who will choose smarting from the primary." the football mascots for these new private schools?" • "Not surprising, but timing is lousy. Lots of wasted effort by committee • "The Dew finally figured out which staff who no longer have the same way the wind is blowing. The Senate Chairman." will no longer be the place where good bills go to die." • "Dewhurst made conservative choices -- Patrick at Ed signals a major • "A Zaffirini-ian dilemma! If you are fight on school choice" the chancellor or one of the UT presidents you should be worried that • "DD picks were perfect. He Zaffirini is moved off of the Education managed to unite the Ds by busting Committee. Ultimately it doesn't too many and the Tea Party Rs by not equate to a big policy shift, but the busting enough. Dead man walking." optics of the change suggest a renewed attempt to micromanage the • "Dewhurst's belated attempt to UT system at a minimum or an pander to the base." attempt to lay the groundwork for more changes the Lege wants to • "Dew doesn't want to make anyone impose on higher ed in Texas." mad" • "Dewhurst is trying to make the far • "Unnecessary Roughness" right like him, but they never will. Hence, removing Ds who have • "David Dewhurst still thinks he can worked with him for the likes of Dan move up. Like his appointments-a Patrick was stupid, plain and simple." mistake." • "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. - • "Dewhurst is deluding himself into David Dewhurst" thinking he can reinvent himself yet again." • "Death by a thousand cuts!"

• "Dewhurst desperately trying to • "Bad for Higher Education" regain control." • "Don't think the pendulum can • "Dewhurst moves to the right" swing any further to the right without gravity starting to its pull. Yes, it will • "The Dew finally figured out how to take a while, but this looks like an unite the Democrats." overreach."

• "So happy about it all!!" • "Still trying to figure out why Gov. Dewhurst took out his anger on Sen. • " campaigned to Lucio." fundamentally alter the Senate, and in so doing, redefined the • "Committee Chair changes ." accurately and fairly reflect the

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 changes in the Senate membership returns to lunch at Per Se. Arrest and in the Republican Party." warrant out in Texas for Lt Governor."

• "Democrats have the same number • "The work should have been done of chairs as last time." months ago -- Dewhurst is late as usual." • "Dewhurst is insecure and really wants to hold onto power. The Senate • "Dewhurst upset the apple cart but will become like the House. Texas is he didn't turn it over." about to head off of the cliff. Heads up, Mississippi!" • "Big win for parents and students."

• "Dewhurst living in delusional, • "Misguided efforts to placate the Far post-election loss, blaming the Right" Democrats for his pathetic performance." • "Giving in to Patrick"

• "After losing so badly in the • "A reflection of Dewhurst's recent primary, it appears that Lt. Gov. campaign experience- reaction to the Dewhurst is covering his right flank to extremists who criticized Dewhurst in help keep his 2014 options open. That the primary" said, it is unlikely to be enough to protect him from the stable of • "School vouchers will be on deck." statewide R's gunning for his post." • "Political rewards and punishments. • "With retirements and running for And w Education a deliberate move to other offices, it was time to re-shuffle ignite controversy." the chairs a bit. All good for the most part. I think the new chairs will do a • "Jerk right, reward those who rolled surprisingly good job." you and dream of Sally Field 'You like me, right now, you like me!'" • "Bipartisanship was delivered a knockout punch. Could be fatal." • "Confuse the opposition!"

• "Dewhurst still wants to be a • "Many sops to the right, but statewide elected official and plans on wouldn't underestimate the degree to moving further to the right and he which the organized far right is will do anything in order to have suspicious of Seliger. Remember, success in the Republican primary. Empower Texans targeted him, albeit Doesn't matter whether it's the correct VERY unsuccessfully. No doubt we'll thing to do or good for the state." be hearing from the morons at AgendaWise soon." • "Let the games begin..." • "Dewhurst is playing to the right for • "Michael Quinn Sullivan escapes reelection or running for Governor if New York, releases phony Senate Perry does not run" Committee announcement and

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 • "Dewhurst attempting to appease screw. The Senate will become more the radical right but it won't work." like the House over time. The only really worrisome appointment is Dan • "Dewhurst moving to the right Patrick to chair the education while taking care of those Rs who committee." helped most in the U.S. Senate race and at the same time appearing • "Ouch!!" reasonable enough to not dump all Dems" • "Get the ultra conservatives in place!" • "The Dew is running for re-election. And apparently he has to put his • "Perry 1/ UT 0. Sad day for Texas" manhood in a locker to do it." • "Fear of Tea Party crazies." • "Dewhurst is in a hurry to show how conservative he really is. Is he • "A move the right by Lt. Gov. running for re-election to be Lite Guv Dewhurst to position himself for re- or does he have his eyes on the Guv's election." Mansion? Some say he still wants to be a U.S. Senator. Hmmmmmm. All I • "Some great, some pandering. Made know is that he wants to prove to the Dewhurst look weaker." base that he is conservative and busting Ds from chairmanships seems • "Move to the right." to be the way to show them he is one of them. This could get fun! Ah • "Fear of the Tea Party." politics is a contact sport. It ain't for the faint of heart. If you are in the • "Should unify Democrats." game you better have on your gear my friend and be ready to hit and be • "Nuanced move to the right by the hit." Lt. Gov. while maintaining an aura of bi-partisanship." • "Sen. Seliger will do an excellent job as Chair of Higher Education." • "After the Lt Gov finally made an aggressive move against certain • "If the Dew had a political motive it Senate Democrats, you can expect a is hard to ascertain aside from the move to eliminate the 2/3 rule in the caterwauling you hear from Z." Senate at the beginning of the session or their could be open warfare on the • "A move to the right by Dewhurst floor of the Senate for the entire due to fear, the pursuit of re-election session. The wild card Democratic or at least the desire to be seen as if he Senator could be Sen. Watson who is pursuing re-election to avoid lame could use his vote on key issues to duck status, or a combination or obtain his much coveted medical both." school for Austin."

• "The Senate's consensus norms have • "Dewhurst stacking blinked. Rather been under pressure for several cycles than trying to turn the tide of and this is just another turn of the extremism, he grabbed a surfboard.

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 Major mistake. Tea Partiers will never them completely. I believe he may accept him and he empowered a huge have woken a couple of sleeping rival in Patrick." giants."

• "A better choice would have been to • "He wanted the senator with the give Dan Patrick a Special Committee microphone to like him; no backbone" on School Choice, where he could grandstand and get all the attention • "Dewhurst continues to be 2 steps he wanted, and leave the Education behind his ambitions." Committee to someone who actually cares about public education - Kel • "Severe turn to the right." Seliger." • "Dewhurst moves right in a futile • "Dewhurst is trying to get back in attempt to regain what he lost in good with the more conservative Senate bid. It will not work. There is folks. I like them" change in the air. Perry and Dewhurst are on the road to retirement." • "Poor old Dewhurst. He's like the last Hittite emperor to declare himself • "Nothing too surprising" King of the Earth. Just before he disappeared." • "Dewhurst wants to prove his conservative credentials--once and for • "Near complete capitulation to the all." fringe." • "If Deuell's threats against Kitzman's • "Potentially good for Dewhurst's confirmation were designed to get political prospects in the GOP him a new chairmanship, they primary (though I still maintain he's worked." damaged goods), but definitely bad for Texas." • "Vouchers. And Zaffirini is PISSED!" • "2 Democratic chairs lost their committees by elimination of the • "The Dew's attempt to get back into committees and 2 others were the good graces of the hyper-partisans demoted. The most conservative in the Republican Caucus will fall member in the Texas Legislature was short, since he merely demoted named chair of public education, even Zaffirini and Ellis, instead of outright after espousing that vouchers were his humiliation of them." number one priority for this session. The Lt. Governor is feeling immense • "Definite shift to the right. pressure to show a more conservative Dewhurst is running for reelection." side and he is bending." • "Race to right." • "Lt Gov Dewhurst to GOP voters: message received." • "Worthless attempt by Dewhurst to appease a group of voters who will • "If he wanted to punish never support him for any office in the Ellis/Zaffirini he should have busted

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 future. He's done, and, growing a bit especially in the case of Patrick crispy." chairing Public Education. It is titled Public Education, not Private • "Senate campaign payback!" Education. Vouchers are not the answer." • "Dewhurst unfortunately bowed to outside right-wing pressure,

Our thanks to this week's participants: Cathie Adams, Jenny Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, David Anthony, Jay Arnold, Louis Bacarisse, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Walt Baum, Dave Beckwith, Rebecca Bernhardt, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Raif Calvert, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, Janis Carter, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, James Clark, Lawrence Collins, John Colyandro, Harold Cook, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Rebecca Flores, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Kinnan Golemon, Jim Grace, Kathy Grant, John Greytok, Jack Gullahorn, Clint Hackney, Anthony Haley, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Adam Haynes, Jim Henson, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Laura Huffman, Kathy Hutto, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Carl Isett, Cal Jillson, Jason Johnson, Karen Johnson, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Lisa Kaufman, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Dale Laine, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Myra Leo, Elizabeth Lippincott, Ruben Longoria, Homero Lucero, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Bryan Mayes, Dan McClung, Parker McCollough, Robert Miller, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Craig Murphy, Keir Murray, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Sylvia Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Tom Phillips, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, , Tim Reeves, Kim Ross, Jason Sabo, Mark Sanders, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Bradford Shields, Dee Simpson, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Jeri Stone, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Russ Tidwell, Trent Townsend, Trey Trainor, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Lee Woods, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012