The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for the week of October 15 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 Who will win the race for speaker in January? • "But it won't be pretty. And before integrity and respectability will its over there will be others that will prevail." be trying to see if they can pull together a deal with the demos." • "It will be difficult to keep some of his votes together. Dick Armey will • "Right wing pressure isn't great mobilize the grassroots and some will enough yet to dislodge a speaker jump ship, but in the end the Dems who's done a good job for his will stick by him ensuring him the members." victory." • "Joe Straus has the advantage of a • "Hughes can't win -- TRL won't let district that understands the wisdom him and Dems will elect Straus" of having a hometown Speaker. Let MQS bluster, the Speaker is safe at • "Gets criticized by both parties. home and will remain Speaker as long Common sense guy. If not him, as he so desires." where do the D's go?" • "Joe has worked tirelessly this • "Phil King is actively meeting with interim to facilitate strong alliances freshman in the hopes that he can be a from the newly elected members. Joe's fall back candidate after news of INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 Hughes' trial lawyer proclivities are • "Sam Texas has a better chance of found out by the radical right." defeating Dan Patrick than Bryan Hughes has of defeating Joe Straus." • "There is no speaker's race. Some people are trying to create the • "How can R members vote for a trial appearance of a speaker's race for lawyer as Speaker? TLR and business their personal benefit and ulterior groups will work to oust any R who motives, but that doesn't make it the does." real deal." • "With the predicted D gains, the • "Would everyone please stop asking number of Rs Strays needs will drop this already?" to a manageable level." • "Really? I've got a better chance of • "Straus survived in 2011 after a winning the lottery then does Hughes wave election ushered in a large becoming Speaker." number of new very conservative members. While he lost some • "I thought this was a done deal until lieutenants in this year's primary, Freedom Works got into the game. some potentially adversarial members They wreaked Dewhurst's US Senate also lost. Plus, there will be 6 or 8 new effort and might do the same in a Democrats in the House in 2013. Speaker's race." Where else are they going to go?" • "None of the conservatives want to • "If 'someone else' was going to enter be seen as Straus supporters to the Tea the race, he/she should have done so Party, but all of them say he is a great before Freedom Works backed Bryan Speaker and they get a lot done with Hughes." him in the Chair." • "Straus, but not without ceding to • "Democrats should pick their own some conservative demands for more Speaker candidate, act like a real conservative R chairs, letting vouchers opposition party and leave the through, or similar." Republicans to eat their own. But alas, they will get suckered." Will outside groups and activists have any real influence on the outcome of the Speakers' race? • "I think a lot of it will depend on the • "No, but some will sure try." outcome from the November election and how that defines the make up of • "Right wing groups will make life the House." difficult for Republican members.... some won't be able to withstand the • "But a few members will believe pressure" outside groups wave a bigger stick than they actually do." • "Tread lightly, FreedomWorks. Those eligible to cast a ballot in this INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 race are not the same as the gullible • "If by real influence you mean right-wing base of the GOP. Texas change the result, no way" legislators will resent your efforts to pressure them. Well, the reasonable • "The threat from the Right will ones will anyway." continue to push Straus to the Right, but it will not be enough to unseat • "God help the Texas Republican him. Simpson in '15, however, is who questions the GOP street cred of another matter." Joci Straus' son." • "See above." • "Many consultants and companies are using their personal relationships • "Full of sound and fury, signifying with candidates and newly elected nothing." legislators to actively promote Straus' record and effective leadership." • "Operative word being 'real'. They will take the uninformed crazies and • "They will try." whip them into a froth like egg whites but to the same end - it's really just a • "Outside groups will make the race meaningless dollop of crap!" closer than it should be." • "Outside groups will kick up a lot of • "They'll try again but fail" dust, the long-term interest of the Republican Party is not to be pushed • "Geren runs the house" further to the right and members will take that into account even if only • "They will make life miserable for quietly." everyone involved, but they will not be successful." • "But only marginally." • "Outside groups need to beat on • "Any outside group/activist who Speaker Strauss as an excuse for can influence a legislator's raising money and whipping up the constituents can influence a fervor of their rank and file legislator's vote for Speaker." supporters, and therefore none of these attacks are really about Strauss • "They barely influence each other. or any serious effort to replace him." Spend and borrow Republicans and tax and spend Democrats. God, please • "I think most of the groups who will don't elect someone with a brain or an influence the Speaker's race will have open mind!" offices within several blocks of the Capital." • "It will force people to stand up to extremist groups. Time to decide what • "MQS, et al, will try to meddle, but kind of Texas you want." they won't be successful." • "Lots of noise; no real influence." • "The lobby." • "Who knows who the members listen to these days and the new ones INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 may be more prone to listening to • "All smoke no fire" outside influencers" • "The answer is fresh in the mind of • "A lot of noise, then the final vote the current Speaker, which is that he will be nearly unanimous for Straus." lost 5 of his lieutenants. The 'people' will have their say." • "Their influence is in the actual election of members at the ballot box. I • "This is between the brothers, Kay." don't think they'll have much impact on Speaker politics." • "No, not in the end." Which chamber will be more likely to pass 'hot-button' bills next session? • "The senate is a forgone conclusion officer of the Senate seems to have to pass all their anti bills next session; more incentive to cater to the 'hot anti-public education, anti-poor, anti- button' end of the spectrum, as well as public health, anti-voting rights for a new-found willingness to do so." minorities..." • "Who'd a thunk we'd look to the • "The amount of crazy coming out of house for temperance." the Senate will be astounding." • "What was the name of that movie • "House is more likely to pass them with Jim Carey and Jeff Daniels?" quicker. And while the new makeup of the Senate will have more empathy • "Right wing ends charade! Will for those bills, as long as the 2/3rds move Texas beyond the boundaries of Rule is around, those hot button bills absurdity. Midland Mayor vows to will take a little longer." forego city charter, 'Texas is no longer safe for ''W' conservatives.' Michael • "With the new Senate makeup, the Quinn Sullivan escapes to Park Slope." R's will become the Texas House Lite. How the mighty Senate has fallen" • "Any way you slice it -- Joe Straus is still more conservative than David • "Here comes the voucher battles and Dewhurst. He will continue to lead this time it just may prevail." the House more in line with a conservative Texas." • "Depends on Wendy Davis and if the 2/3 rule is suspended" • "For the first time in my political lifetime." • "2/3rds rule is history." • "Hot potato. Neither side wants to • "Passing any significant measure fail to address state's 'emergency' requires the help, direct or indirect, of issues TSA Vouchers Sanctuary cities" the person in charge. The presiding INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 15 October 2012 • "The Lt. Gov. has something to primary challenges that they won't prove." dare to vote no. And in the Senate, it's possible that a majority might be all • "Thank God for the House. Can you that's needed - depending on the imagine its come to this? Vouchers, er, future health of the two-thirds rule." I mean tax credits die in the House." • "They always do but vouchers may • "Even though Dewhurst has much come from the senate and that is a hot to prove to the Republican primary button issue" electorate, the House is just a lot easier to operate and to move to decision." • "Plenty of crazies in both chambers. Finally." • "Trick question? Like the senate has killed a bill at any point in living • "Similar to DC, the House is where memory?" the firebrand energy is.