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Craven Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) Update 2017

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Craven Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) Update 2017 Craven Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) Update 2017 Craven District Council Final Report November 2017 Main Contact: Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk © 2017 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) Craven SHMA Update 2017 Page | 2 Table of Contents Executive summary ....................................................................................................... 7 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 11 Background and objectives .............................................................................. 11 National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG) and other requirements ....................................................... 11 Definitions ......................................................................................................... 13 Geography ........................................................................................................ 14 Research methodology ..................................................................................... 18 Report structure ................................................................................................ 18 2. Policy and strategic review ............................................................................... 20 National policy .................................................................................................. 20 Local strategic priorities .................................................................................... 20 Concluding comments ...................................................................................... 22 3. Defining the Housing Market Area .................................................................... 23 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 23 The Geography of Housing Market Areas ........................................................ 23 House prices and rates of change in house prices ........................................... 27 Migration and self-containment......................................................................... 30 Commuting patterns ......................................................................................... 32 Concluding comments ...................................................................................... 33 4. Craven housing market review ......................................................................... 35 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 35 Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type and tenure ...................... 35 Tenure characteristics ...................................................................................... 45 Key market drivers ............................................................................................ 57 Current households in need.............................................................................. 60 Homeless households ...................................................................................... 60 Relative affordability of housing options ........................................................... 61 5. Market Signals review ...................................................................................... 67 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 67 Market signals .................................................................................................. 67 Comparator areas ............................................................................................. 71 Past trends in housing delivery ......................................................................... 73 Concluding comments ...................................................................................... 76 6. Objectively Assessed Housing Need and Housing Requirement ..................... 77 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 77 Housing Market Area ........................................................................................ 78 Demographic starting point ............................................................................... 78 November 2017 Craven SHMA Update 2017 Page | 3 Adjusting the projections .................................................................................. 78 Market signals and past trends in delivery ........................................................ 81 Objectively Assessed Housing Need ................................................................ 82 From an OAN to a housing requirement ........................................................... 83 7. The need for all types of housing...................................................................... 85 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 85 Overall dwelling mix .......................................................................................... 85 Affordable housing requirements ...................................................................... 86 Conclusions on dwelling mix............................................................................. 88 The private rented sector .................................................................................. 89 People wishing to build their own homes .......................................................... 89 Family housing ................................................................................................. 89 Older people ..................................................................................................... 89 Households with specific needs ........................................................................ 92 8. Conclusion: Policy and Strategic Issues ........................................................... 95 The Housing Market Area ................................................................................. 95 The current housing market .............................................................................. 96 Market signals review ....................................................................................... 96 Objectively assessed housing need ................................................................. 96 The need for all types of housing...................................................................... 97 NPPF requirements .......................................................................................... 98 Final comments ................................................................................................ 98 Introduction to Technical Appendices........................................................................ 100 Technical Appendix A: Research Methodology ......................................................... 101 Overall approach ............................................................................................ 101 Online key stakeholder survey ........................................................................ 101 Interviews with estate and letting agents ........................................................ 102 Technical Appendix B: Policy Review ....................................................................... 103 Technical Appendix C: Affordable housing need calculations ................................... 119 Technical Appendix D: Reviewing the future profile of dwelling stock in Craven ....... 129 Technical Appendix E: Monitoring and updating ....................................................... 134 Technical Appendix F: National Planning Policy Framework and Planning Practice Guidance Checklist ................................................................ 137 List of Tables Table ES1 Summary of size/designation recommendation based on households in need who couldn't afford by bed size/designation ............ 9 Table ES2 Older persons’ dwelling requirements 2014 to 2035 .............................. 10 Table 3.1 Flows of residents (all moves) ............................................................... 31 November 2017 Craven SHMA Update 2017 Page | 4 Table 3.2 Containment ratios ................................................................................. 31 Table 3.3 Craven 2011 census commuting flows: workers (aged 16-74) .............. 33 Table 4.1 Dwelling Stock ....................................................................................... 35 Table 4.2 Property type and size across Craven ................................................... 38 Table 4.3 Age of dwelling ...................................................................................... 41 Table 4.4 Dwelling stock condition in England and Craven estimates ................... 42 Table 4.5 Lower Quartile and median price and income required to be affordable ............................................................................................... 45 Table 4.6 Private sector rental prices in Craven 2010-2016 .................................. 50 Table 4.7 Primary market drivers ........................................................................... 57 Table 4.8 Projected population change, 2016-2039 .............................................. 58 Table 4.9 Homeless
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