UPDATE REPORT As of March 31St, 2013
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
UPDATE REPORT As of March 31st, 2013 Portfolio vs. Benchmark Returns* 18.00% 14.00% 10.00% 6.00% Portfolio 2.00% TSX(TRI) -2.00% Sep Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb Mar -6.00% 2010 2011 2012 2013 -10.00% -14.00% * Performance is shown gross of all fees.Performance data is historical and is not indicative of future performance. Returns are annualized for periods > 1 year. This document is for information purposes only. Top 10 Holdings % Portfolio PORTFOLIO RETURN* TSX/TRI RETURN* 1 WestJet Airlines Ltd. 5.04% March, 2013: 3.39% March, 2013: -0.19% 2 West Fraser Timber Co. 4.79% 1st Quarter: 8.20% 1st Quarter: 3.34% 3 Canfor Corp. 4.61% YTD: 8.20% YTD: 3.34% 4 Gildan Activewear 4.33% Last 12 Months: 8.62% Last 12 Months: 6.11% 5 Intertape Polymer Group 4.15% Since Inception: 10.52% Since Inception: 5.63% 6 Cdn Pacific Railway Ltd. 3.64% (Aug 31st, 2010) (Aug 31st, 2010) 7 Superior Plus Corp. 3.63% 8 Transcontinental Inc. 3.58% # of Stocks in Portfolio 70 9 Industrial Alliance 3.15% 10 ShawCor Ltd. 2.92% Market Capitalization % Portfolio Total: 39.83% Large Cap (>2 Billion) 67.08% Style Models- March, 2013 Performance Mid Cap (>= 1 Billion and <= 2 Billion) 17.04% Small Cap (<1 Billion) 15.59% Style Weight Style Model Performance Rank Selected (Out of 6) Portfolio Characteristics Portfolio SP/TSX AGGCON 4.31% 3 2 Price / Earnings on Trailing EPS 14.87 15.46 AGGCON100 0.38% 9 Current Price / Book Ratio 2.13 1.86 INCOME 1.07% 7 Price / Latest Cash Flow 7.48 7.84 GROWTH 5.29% 2 1 Reinvestment Rate on Current Year Median 13.26 7.35 GIV 2.65% 5 1 1 Year Price Alpha vs. TSX Equity 2.75 0.35 GROWTH-VALUE 1.65% 6 1 Quarterly Earnings Surprise 1.39 0.30 INDUSTRY ALL STARS 3.39% 4 1 Quarterly Earnings Momentum 15.2 0.12 RISK 5.76% 1 3 Month Estimate Revision 9.25 -5.65 VALUE PE -1.34% 10 Price Change From Month End 3 Months Ago 15.27 2.54 VALUE PS 0.85% 8 Price Change From Month End 6 Months Ago 29.33 3.43 Expected Yield 2.24 3.11 Refer to final page for more information on each Style Model. Refer to final page for more information on each Portfolio Characteristic. Top 10 Contributors (YTD) % Contribution Top 10 Overweights % Weight 1 West Fraser Timber Co. 1.16% 1 WestJet Airlines Ltd. 4.84% 2 WestJet Airlines Ltd. 1.15% 2 West Fraser Timber Co. 4.60% 3 Intertape Polymer Group 0.78% 3 Canfor Corp. 4.49% 4 Canfor Corp. 0.68% 4 Intertape Polymer Group 4.15% 5 Transcontinental Inc. 0.42% 5 Gildan Activewear 4.03% 6 Norbord Inc. 0.41% 6 Superior Plus Corp. 3.55% 7 Gildan Activewear 0.41% 7 Transcontinental Inc. 3.52% 8 Magna International Inc. 0.36% 8 Industrial Alliance 2.91% 9 RMP Energy Inc. 0.34% 9 Cogeco Cable Inc. 2.76% 10 Superior Plus Corp. 0.28% 10 Norbord Inc. 2.76% Total: 5.99% Bottom 10 Contributors (YTD) % Contribution Top 10 Underweights % Weight 1 Parkland Fuel Corp. -0.31% 1 Royal Bank of Canada -5.26% 2 Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. -0.28% 2 Toronto-Dominion Bank -5.11% 3 Timmins Gold Corp. -0.18% 3 Bank of Nova Scotia -4.62% 4 Petrominerales Ltd. -0.14% 4 Cdn. National Railway -2.86% 5 Franco-Nevada Corp. -0.13% 5 Suncor Energy Inc. -2.59% 6 Nevsun Resources Ltd. -0.12% 6 Enbridge Inc. -2.50% 7 Inmet Mining Corp. -0.12% 7 Cdn. Natural Resources -2.33% 8 Parex Resources Inc. -0.11% 8 Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan -2.26% 9 Suncor Energy Inc. -0.09% 9 TransCanada Corp. -2.24% 10 Kinross Gold Corp. -0.08% 10 Cdn. Imperial Bank -2.10% Total: -1.58% 18 ASSET MANAGEMENT INC. 284 Dundas Street, Suite 218 Contact Information: Jeff Brown London Ontario Canada N6B 1T6 | Tel: 1.519.433.0018 | www.18assetmanagement.com [email protected] As of March 31st, 2013 [2] GLOSSARY - Portfolio Characteristics CHARACTERISTIC & FORMULA EXPLANATION Price to Earnings using trailing EPS is the ratio of a company's latest price to its trailing 4 quarters of operating earnings per Price / Earnings on Trailing EPS share. It is a commonly used valuation measure of a firm and can be interpreted as the multiple investors are willing to pay Current share price / Latest 4 qtrs adjusted EPS for a firm's reported operating earnings. Price to Book is the ratio of a company's latest price to the per share value of its common share equity. The denominator Current Price / Book ratio used in the calculation is the "adjusted" book value of a company. The book value is calculated at least once a quarter and Current share price / Adjusted book value is "adjusted" between a company's fiscal quarter-ends if there are any changes to its common share equity value. Price / Cash Flow Price to Cash Flow based on trailing Cash Flow is the ratio of a company's price to its trailing 4 quarters of cash flow from Latest price/ latest 4 quarters of Cash Flow from Operations per share operations. Reinvestment Rate on Current Year Median Estimated Reinvestment Rate is the estimated EPS less the expected dividends per share to be paid in the next 12 months (Latest median estimate for current year - Declared dividend rate) / absolute as a % of the company's adjusted book value per share. Reinvestment Rate, a measure of a company's profitability, is the (Adjusted book value) x 100 rate at which a company is expected to reinvest earnings back into its business and is a common measure of growth of a 1 Year Price Alpha vs. TSX Equity 1 year price Alpha vs. Market Index Quarterly Earnings Surprise ESRP is adjusted in two ways: 1) a decay factor is used to reduce the surprise as time passes; and 2) earnings variability is A proprietary measure of the percentage difference between actual and expected factored into the calculation to ensure that if two companies beat the consensus estimate by the same percentage, the earnings for the latest reported quarter company with the lower earnings variability will have the higher ESRP. Quarterly Earnings Momentum measures the rate of change of quarterly operating earnings per share (excluding unusual Quarterly Earnings Momentum gains or losses). It is calculated as the percentage change between the latest 4 quarters of reported operating earnings per (Latest 4 quarters adjusted EPS - 4 quarters adjusted EPS 1 quarter ago) / absolute share and the 4 quarters of operating earnings from 1 quarter ago. This is helpful when attempting to answer the question (4 Quarters adjusted EPS 1 quarter ago) x 100 "have trailing earnings increased in the past quarter?". 3 Month Estimate Revision Three month Estimate Revision measures the percentage change over the past 3 months in the current fiscal year median (Median of current year estimate - Current year median estimate 3 months ago) / earnings estimate. For example, a value of 15 for this variable means that the current year median earnings estimate has absolute (Current year median estimate 3 months ago) x 100 been raised by 15% over the past 3 months. Price Change From Month End 3 Months Ago Price Change from month-end 3 months ago takes the latest price of the stock and compares it with the price of the stock 3 (Current share price - Price from month end 3 months ago) / absolute (Price from month-ends ago. month end 3 months ago) x 100 Price Change From Month End 6 Months Ago Price Change from month-end 6 months ago takes the latest price of the stock and compares it with the price of the stock 6 (Current share price - Price from month end 6 months ago) / absolute (Price from month-ends ago. month end 6 months ago) x 100 Expected Yield Expected Dividend Yield is the estimated annual dividend rate expressed as a percentage of the latest market price of the Expected Annual Dividends / Current share price stock. Reference: Characteristics, Formula, and Explanations provided by CPMS GLOSSARY - Style Models STYLE MODEL NAME STYLE CHARACTERISTICS The AggCon Model consists of 20 stocks – 10 aggressive and 10 conservative. To avoid any repeat stocks, the stock selection precedence is designated as the following: Conservative --> Aggressive. The Conservative side of the model looks at companies that have lower betas, high dividend yields, and show signs of positive earnings. Dividend payouts should not be too high and there should be upward estimate revisions. Companies are Aggressive-Conservative (AggCon) sold when they no longer distribute dividends and/or generate any earnings, or fail the sell rank threshold. The Aggressive side of the model looks at companies that have strong earnings momentum, positive earnings surprise, and positive 12-month price change, and 3-month price momentum. Companies must also be generating earnings. Companies are sold if the stock price has greatly fallen in the last 3 months and 12 months and/or no longer exhibits earnings, or fail the sell rank threshold The AggCon100 Model is similar to AggCon except that it only ranks stocks from a universe consisting of 100 largest Aggressive-Conservative 100 (AggCon100) companies based on Market Float. The Growth Model looks at companies that exhibit strong future earning potential shown through active reinvestment of their earnings to drive future growth.