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Using Transformative Scenario Planning As a Way to Think

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Using Transformative Scenario Planning As a Way to Think Using transformatve scenario planning as a way to think diferently about the future of land use in Bobirwa, Botswana August 2018 www.assar.uct.ac.za Writen by Teresa Perez, Chanda Molefe and Hillary Masundire (with inputs from Karen Goldberg, Julia Davies, Dian Spear and Wapula Raditloaneng) Transformatve Scenario Planning in Botswana The fve-year ASSAR project The University of Botswana began working with stakeholders (Adaptaton at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions, in the Bobirwa sub-district in 2014, establishing relatonships 2014-2018) uses insights from mult-scale, with people concerned about land use. The issue of land use is a thorny one that involves a myriad of people and is interdisciplinary work to inform and complicated by the uncertainty of climate change. Opinions transform climate adaptaton policy and difer about the management of privately owned land versus practce in ways that promote the long-term communal land. Land use is therefore something that involves a diverse range of perspectves and cannot be resolved by any wellbeing of the most vulnerable and those single stakeholder working alone. Hence, a process that brings with the least agency. together confictng opinions could help people to start thinking diferently about the future of land use in Bobirwa. Transformatve Scenario Planning (TSP) is one such process, designed for situatons in which people’s perceptons of a KEY POINTS problem, and perhaps of one another, have become stuck. Developed by Reos Partners, TSP aims to help people to think • Workshops focused on issues concerning optmal land use and do things diferently. One part of the process is bringing and confict between humans and wildlife. together people who do not ordinarily mix, with the goal of • A widely held belief is that private land is more fertle than forging new relatonships that allow people to work together communal land. What came to light is that there is no to change the future. diference in the type of soil in villages compared to This report summarises the main steps and ideas involved in freehold land. Any diference in soil quality is a result of the TSP workshops in Botswana. The frst of these was from 20 how the land has been used and managed over the years. -21 October 2017 when diverse stakeholders involved in land • The contents and implicatons of the 2015 Land Policy use met for the frst tme. This meetng culminated in the were not common knowledge to many stakeholders. The development of four scenarios, which told diferent stories policy aims to ensure equal access to land, with one plot about what could happen in the area. These scenarios were allocated per person (as long as they do not already have a writen up in English and Setswana ready to be presented at plot/were allocated a plot but have sold it). the second workshop held at Oasis Lodge Zanzibar, from 23- • Emphasis was placed on forging ahead in ways that pay 25 January 2018. Over the two workshops, the groundwork atenton to the needs and ideas of people living on was laid for stakeholders to choose response strategies Bobirwa. This means having more regard for local and towards long-term collaboratons. traditonal values, using language that is relevant to everyone, and working together rather than in isolaton. This report is intended as a resource for stakeholders to support their work in progress. Workshop #1 Working together to change the future Introductons and group agreements Unlike conventonal workshops or conferences, the TSP workshop began by invitng all 35 atendees to sit in one big circle. In turn, every person introduced themselves and said what organisaton they were from. It quickly became clear that, collectvely, the people in the room had a wealth of knowledge and experience. The group of partcipants was diverse with representatves from grassroots organisatons, commercial farmers, community development groups, local authorites, natonal ministries, academics and religious organisatons. An agreement was made amongst stakeholders to respect one another and avoid showing deference based on social signifers such as gender, age and occupaton. A list of other agreements was also collaboratvely drawn up. These emphasised the importance of encouraging people at grassroots level to talk, and requested that everyone spoke in Setswana (followed by an English translaton). This session was important for setng the tone of the workshop, and emphasised that it was everyone’s responsibility to ensure that discussions were not dominated by language or by people in positons of authority. Role reversal: Cynics and believers Ofen in workshops, it is assumed that everyone has faith in the process. However, this ignores the ofen-unspoken doubts that many people have about the value of workshops. TSP makes space for critque from the onset, rather than pretending that cynicism does not exist. On Day 1, workshop partcipants were asked to pair up with someone and choose to be either a ‘cynic’ or a ‘believer’. If a person was optmistc about the process, they were encouraged to take the role of a cynic, and vice versa. In these roles, individuals talked for two minutes each, defending their positon. The following is a selecton of the arguments that were made by cynics and believers in the subsequent feedback session. Believers Cynics TSP has worked in other places; it could work for One workshop cannot change things because land us here. use is a widespread issue. We don’t know what will happen with the climate, This is an opportunity to develop relatonships so anything we decide now may be irrelevant in between the government and the community. the future. Whatever we discuss here is unlikely to make a The alternatve is to do nothing. If we do not do diference because there is no politcal will to anything, things will get worse. change. - 2- Taking a deliberate detour: It’s a marathon, not a short cut In this session, facilitators explained the ratonale behind undertaking a lengthy workshopping process rather than immediately concentratng on solutons. They explained that ‘we want to see with fresh eyes’ in order to not only change the world, but ourselves too. Such a shif requires taking a journey together and coming at the issue from diferent angles. Tackling land use was summed up by one stakeholder as being ‘a marathon, not a short cut’. Partcipants were asked to consider an old Indian parable, which depicted an elephant being touched by many diferent hands, and to share what they saw. “It’s about being “Each hand gives a successful together.” diferent message.” “It is a young “Touches are gentle elephant that is not because each wants yet mature so each of to feel and has the hands is trying to something at stake.” guide it.” The elephant was likened to Bobirwa and the hands were thought to be those of the workshop partcipants. The process invited stakeholders to contemplate diferent parts of the issue in order to have a beter understanding of the situaton as a whole. The hands were also thought to represent the multple sources of informaton that are available, such as conversaton, newspapers or research, which may have implicatons for how an issue is understood. Throughout the process stakeholders were warned that feeling bewildered was an inevitable part of transformaton. In fact, the facilitators explained that ‘we invite confusion’. Land use in the news To help think holistcally about the issue, in the next actvity, stakeholders sifed through newspapers. They looked for newspaper headlines that in some way had a bearing on land use in Bobirwa. These were then categorised according to whether the story was Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental or Politcal (STEEP). The actvity aimed to help free people’s thinking to allow them to consider the multple, interconnected factors and forces that impact the current situaton. This prepared stakeholders for subsequent actvites in which scenarios about diferent possible futures were writen. Stakeholders then paired up with someone with whom they were not familiar and were asked to discuss two things. Firstly, what worried them the most when they thought about land use in Bobirwa? Secondly, what questons did they have about the future of land use that, at the tme of the workshop, nobody had provided any answers to? The feedback from this session was used to list the main drivers of the future of land use in Bobirwa. - 3 - Votng on the most uncertain drivers of change in Bobirwa In groups, stakeholders discussed in more detail the questons and concerns that had been identfed in the previous exercise. Drivers that were predictable were set aside and a list of unpredictable drivers was composed. Each driver of change was posted onto the wall, with similar drivers grouped together to form clusters. Workshop partcipants were given four stckers, each of which represented one vote. They could distribute these four votes as they wished. For example, all four stckers could be placed on one driver if it was something that they felt strongly about. The drivers that received the highest number of votes were ‘human-wildlife co-existence’ and ‘changes in land policy’, as shown in the table below with some of the other drivers. Human/wildlife co-existence Changes in land policy Land ownership and access Budget allocaton for HIV/AIDS The extent of agreement between tourism and Demand for arable land agricultural industrial sectors Integrated planning between local and central Climate variability government The group was asked to think carefully about these two drivers, and consider if they would be the most interestng and relevant ‘backbones’ of stories about the future. Importantly, the two drivers had to be factors that were independent of one another. A discussion ensued about how to word the two drivers so that they would efectvely capture the key factors afectng the future of land use in Bobirwa.
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