Carbon Management for Sustainable Development: An examination of potential transition paths for the Saudi Arabian ‘national system of innovation’ towards a cleaner energy economy Submitted by: Noura Youssef Mansouri This thesis is submitted in fulfilment of the full requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. School of Engineering and Materials Science Queen Mary, University of London London, United Kingdom Supervisor: Professor T. Alexander (publishes as T. Korakianitis) Secondary Supervisor: Professor R. J. Crookes 1 In the name of Allah, the Entirely Merciful, the Especially Merciful (Quran 1:1). Corruption has appeared throughout the land and sea by [reason of] what the hands of people have earned so He may let them taste part of [the consequence of] what they have done that perhaps they will return [to righteousness] (Quran 30:41). Indeed, we offered the Trust to the heavens and the earth and the mountains, and they declined to bear it and feared it; but man [undertook to] bear it. Indeed, he was unjust and ignorant (Quran 33:72). He said, "O my people, have you considered: if I am upon clear evidence from my Lord and He has provided me with a good provision from Him? And I do not intend to differ from you in that which I have forbidden you; I only intend reform as much as I am able. And my success is not but through Allah. Upon him I have relied, and to Him I return (Quran 11:88). 2 Dedication and Memoriam He is the Ever-Living; there is no deity except Him, so call upon Him, [being] sincere to Him in religion. [All] praise is [due] to Allah, Lord of the worlds (Quran 40:65). I dedicate this work to the loving memory of my father, Dr. Youssef M. S. Mansouri (1938-2009), who saw, inspired and supported the start of this work but has passed away before it was complete. May Allah’s mercy be upon him and may my work reach him. I dedicate this work to my mother Zohour Mukhtar and my husband Ammar Yousef. 3 Acknowledgement In such an endeavour, one is invariably indebted to many individuals who have provided assistance and contributed with invaluable support, without which this work would have not been possible. I owe my loving thanks to my parents for their unconditional love, their continuous prayers, and for raising me to become the person I am today. My deepest thanks go to my husband Ammar for his love, support, patience and understanding when I most needed it, without him this work would have not been possible. My daughter Aya [born in 2007] for being a source of blessing, joy and pride. My son AbdAllah [born in 2013] born while I was awaiting my viva voce, and who with his birth brought renewal, grace and honour. Thanks and appreciation is due to my primary supervisor Professor Theodosios Alexander (publishes as T. Korakianitis) who has accepted me as his student [in 2009 after some restructuring in the department] and has since provided useful guidance and important feedback. My thanks and appreciation also go to my secondary supervisor Professor Roy J. Crookes for his guidance and useful comments, especially for chapter 6, without which I would not have been able to complete it. I would like to thank my former [third] supervisor Mr. Lakis Kaounides who has nominated me for this PhD grant by the department and has provided guidance and support, especially on early stages of this thesis prior to 2009. I would like to thank the research participants for their kind acceptance to participate and for their generous sharing of information, without which, Chapter 7 would have not been complete: Dr. Nayef Al-Abbadi, Dr. Mohammad Al-Ansari, Dr. Khaled Al-Faleh, Dr. Mohammad Al-Fawzan, Dr. Salim Al-Ghamdi, Dr. K. Al-Hinai, Dr. S. Al-Malik, Dr. N. AL-Mansour, Dr. Ali Al-Meshari, Dr. Manar Al-Moneef, Dr. Nadhmi Al-Nasr, Dr. Tawfeek Al-Rabiah, Dr. Mohammad Al-Sabban, Dr. Khaled Al-Sabti, Dr. Abdulwahab Al-Sadoun, Dr. Turki Al-Saud, Dr. Fahad Al-Sulaiman, Dr. Ahmad Al-Yamani, Dr. Iyad Al-Zaharnah, Dr. Ibrahim Babelli, Ms. Sarah Baghdadi, Dr. S. H. Bakry, Dr. Adel Bushnak, Dr. Osama Faqeeha, Mr. Richard Horner, Dr. Ayman Kayal, Dr. N. Merah, Mr. R. Ramanathan, Dr. Sayed Ahmad Said, and Dr. Zain Yamani. I acknowledge and thank the financial support received for my PhD studies: Queen Mary, University of London, Yamani Cultural and Charitable Foundation as well as my husband. I would like to thank Sheikh Ahmad Zaki Yamani for nominating me for a YCCF scholarship and for welcoming me to work at CGES and attend the many organized events by the centre. My thank is also for other conferences and events organizers that welcomed my participation, including GLOBELICS 2007 PhD School and all participants for providing insightful discussions and ideas on my work, Oxford Centre for Energy Studies and Harvard Kennedy School Middle East Conference energy discussion panel. 4 I would like to thank Dr. Akram Yosri for his inspiration, friendship, personal guidance, and untiring encouragement and support; Dr. Anas F. Alhajji for his generous sharing of insightful comments and discussions on energy, and for his encouragement. Last but not least, my deep thanks is due to my beloved family for their unconditional love and support throughout the years: Maha Al Sulaiman, Sara Mansouri, Feher Mansouri, Aara Mansouri, Roufaida Mansouri, Modhar Mansouri and Noor Ashari. My family in-law: Sabah Baothman, Tarek Yousef, Motaz Yousef and Madeha Yousef. My thanks and appreciation includes my friends for their friendship, whether in London, Jeddah or elswhere for providing a virtual ‘home abroad’, Maryam Ficociello, Nouf Ghaznawi, Huda Al Amoudi, Mounira Jamjoom; and many others in my extended circle of family, and my friends at home in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia who always expressed love, support and encouragement, including but not limited to: Sara Zaini, Mishaal Ashemimry, Heba Khogeer, Heba Hammouri, Tala Al Amoudi, Rana Madani, Yasmeen Bahareth, Shadia Julaidan, and Sara Baashan. 5 Abstract Since the first industrial revolution, rising carbon emissions have caused harmful effects on our environment. There is a broad consensus that climate change is happening and that it is as a result of anthropogenic carbon emissions, primarily from burning fossil fuels. This raises concern for the future of our carbon-based world energy and world economy, particularly with economies heavily dependent on oil, such as Saudi Arabia. This dissertation aims to answer the question: How could Saudi Arabia, given its oil-based economy and vast oil reserves, respond to the challenges of climate change and the world’s transitioning towards environmental sustainability, and away from fossil fuels. Two studies have been conducted, a quantitative study and a qualitative study. The first study examined the Saudi energy sector, 40 life cycle assessment (LCA) studies on both carbon capture and storage (CCS) and solar photovoltaic (Solar PV) were used to create 12 scenarios for 3 growth cases from year 2010 to 2025. Results showed massive reductions in carbon dioxide emissions in all scenarios. The second study examined the economy of Saudi Arabia, using 30 interviews with participants from across the economy, to materialise the Saudi national system of innovation. Major forces of the economy and their relationships have been identified and discussed. Using both studies, transition paths of the Saudi NSI towards a sustainable and cleaner energy economy were then constructed and discussed. A Saudi sustainable carbon management ‘system of innovation’ (SSCMSI) was proposed. Given Saudi Arabia’s heavy dependence on oil, which characterised its NSI fabric, constructing an NSI around its energy sector was important. The proposed SSCMSI role includes: accelerating innovation in the energy sector, encouraging energy efficiency, accelerating the use of renewable energy, improving market conditions, supporting technology transfer from advanced economies, utilising international cooperation and mobilizing private sector investment in energy. 6 Table of Content Dedication and Memoriam 3 Acknowledgement 4 List of Acronyms and Abbreviations 12 List of Figures 15 List of Tables 22 1 Setting the Scene 25 1.1 Background 26 1.2 Problem Domain 28 1.2.1 Problem Statement 30 1.3 Research Questions and Objectives: 30 1.3.1 Research Questions 30 1.3.2 Research Objectives: 31 1.4 Methodology 32 1.5 Structure of the Thesis 32 1.6 Expected Contributions 35 1.6.1 Methodological Contributions 35 1.6.2 Theoretical Contributions 35 1.6.3 Empirical Contributions 35 2 Climate Change 37 2.1 Historical Origins 38 2.2 The Greenhouse Effect 39 2.2.1 The Global Carbon Cycle 40 2.2.2 Global Warming 43 2.3 Key Indicators of Climate Change 44 2.3.1 Sea Level 44 2.3.2 Arctic Sea Ice 45 2.3.3 Carbon Dioxide Concentration 46 2.3.4 Global Average Temperature 47 2.3.5 Ozone Hole 48 2.3.6 Other Observed Changes 48 2.4 Projections of Climate Change and its impacts 49 2.4.1 Fresh Water 49 7 2.4.2 Ecosystems 50 2.4.3 Food 50 2.4.4 Coastal systems 50 2.5 Causes of Climate Change 50 2.6 Critics of Climate Change 52 2.7 Direct impacts on Saudi Arabia 54 2.7.1 Sea level rise 55 2.7.2 Water and Food 56 2.7.3 Other projected climatic changes: 57 2.8 Main International Environmental Treaties on Climate Change 60 2.8.1 Kyoto Protocol 60 2.8.2 Bali Roadmap 60 2.9 Islamic Principles and Saudi Arabia’s stance on climate change 61 3 The Saudi Arabian Economy and Its Energy Sector 64 3.1 Introduction 65 3.2 Country profile 65 3.3 The Importance of Saudi Arabia in the World Economy 66 3.3.1 World’s Energy Superpower 67 3.4 The Energy Sector