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Population, Economy, and Environment in Mauritius Proceedings of a Task Force Meeting held under the UIMFPA-sponsored project "Population and Sustainable Development: Mauritius" at NASA (Laxenburg, Austria ) 3-5 September 1990. Editors W. Lutz and F.L. Toth AL r-'! -ENCE CENT! 7 ÎV "•"' X ÂÈitl CP-91-1 JANUARY 1991 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS is a nongovernmental research institution, bringing together scientists from around the world to work on problems of common concern. Situated in Laxenburg, Austria, IIASA was founded in October 1972 by the academies of science and equivalent organizations of twelve countries. Its founders gave IIASA a unique position outside national, disciplinary, and institutional boundaries so that it might take the broadest possible view in pursuing its objectives: To promote international cooperation in solving problems arising from social, economic, technological, and environmental change To create a network of institutions in the national member organization countries and elsewhere for joint scientific research To develop and formalize systems analysis and the sciences contributing to it, and promote the use of analytical techniques needed to evaluate and address complex problems To inform policy advisors and decision makers about the potential application of the Institute's work to such problems The Institute now has national member organizations in the following countries: Austria Italy The Austrian Academy of Sciences The National Research Council (CNR) and the National Commission for Nuclear Bulgaria and Alternative Energy Sources (ENEA) The National Committee for Applied Systems Analysis and Management Japan Canada The Japan Committee for IIASA The Canadian Committee for IIASA Netherlands Czech and Slovak Federal Republic The Netherlands Organization for The Committee for IIASA of the Scientific Research (NWO) Czech and Slovak Federal Republic Poland Finland The Polish Academy of Sciences The Finnish Committee for IIASA Sweden France The Swedish Council for Planning and The French Association for the Coordination of Research (FRN) Development of Systems Analysis Germany Union of Soviet Socialist Republics Association for the Advancement . The Academy of Sciences of the Union of IIASA of Soviet Socialist Republics Hungary United States of America The Hungarian Committee for Applied The American Academy of Arts and Systems Analysis Sciences POPULATION, ECONOMY, AND ENVIRONMENT IN MAURITIUS W. Lutzand F.L Toth (Editors) Proceedings of a task force meeting held under the UNFPA sponsored project 'Population and Sustainable Development: Mauritius" at IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 3-5 September 1990 CP-91-001 January 1991 Collaborative Papers report work which has not been performed solely at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and which has received only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria FOREWORD Studies of population and of sustainable development enjoy a long and distinguished tradition at MASA as does research of complex systems. The papers included in this volume build on that tradition, in the same way that our project on Mauritius does, but the research also has several characteristics that make it especially interesting. This is the first time that IIASA has directed a project that entails scientific collaboration with one specific academic institution in the Southern hemisphere, and focuses on a country which has only 0.00125 percent of the world's land surface and 0.020 percent of its population. In conducting this type of project, the objective is to gain a deeper understanding of the population-development- environment puzzle by concentrating on a single spot on the world map. IIASA has always been dedicated to interdisciplinary research, but this is the first time that the studies of population, environment and development have been brought together into one project which examines the interaction between these factors ¡n a specific context. The project has the significant support of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and lies at the intersection of the scientific interests of IIASA, the expertise of the University of Mauritius, and the priorities of UNFPA. All involved parties also hope that this project will provide useful background information for the 1992 World Conference on Environment and Development. The present proceedings of a task force meeting only document the very first step in the project work, namely the assembly of information on Mauritius from many different perspectives. The collection of papers is multidisciplinary, but not yet interdisciplinary. The latter is the task of the presently ongoing project work and will be documented in future publications. Peter de Janosi Director, IIASA iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword by Peter de Jánosi (I/ASA) i¡¡ PARTI. INTRODUCTION 1. A Case Study on Mauritius: Towards the Holistic Understanding of a Microcosmos 3 Wolfgang Lutz (IIASA) 2. "Mauritius 2000" and the NASA Research Framework: A View From the Réduit Campus 9 Jagdish Manrakhan (University of Mauritius) 3. Population, Development, and the Environment 27 Nathan Keyfitz (I/ASA) PART II. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE 4. The Demographic Discontinuities of Mauritius 39 Wolfgang Lutz and Anne B. Wils (IIASA) 5. Family Planning and Fertility Change in Mauritius 67 Christos Xenos 6. Mauritius: Fertility Decline and Population Policy 87 Mikko A. Salo (University of Joensuu, Finland) 7. The Health Status of the Mauritian Population and Prospects for Change 95 Hilary King and J.E. Dowd (WHO) 8. Scenarios for Future Demographic Trends in Mauritius 109 Christopher Prinz (IIASA) 9. Labor Supply, Employment, and Sustainable Development in Mauritius 129 Kavita Pandit (University of Georgia/I/ASA) 10. Manpower Planning and Training in the Context of Economic Development in Mauritius 155 Esther Hanooman/ee (MEPD, Mauritius) PART III. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS 11. An Economic and Social Profile of Mauritius: A Short Overview 175 Jeewan Ramlugun (University of Mauritius} 12. Labor Intensive Versus Technology Intensive Production in Newly Industrializing Countries 191 Wa/traut Urban (Austrian Institute for Internationa/ Affairs) 13. Energy Demand Structures in Mauritius and Their Development Over Time 203 Jaishree Beedasy (University of Mauritius) 14. Estimation of Energy Demand Elasticities for Mauritius 219 Bo Andersson (Stockholm School of Economics/IIASA) 15. The Agricultural System of Mauritius 227 Jairaj Ramkissoon (University of Mauritius) 16. Mauritian Agriculture from an International Perspective 247 Günther Fischer (IIASA) 17. Tourist Destination Cycles and Sustainable Development: A Comparative Analysis of the Bahamas and Mauritius 255 Keith G. Debbage (University of North Carolina) 18. Water Systems and Water Management on the Island of Mauritius 271 Toolseram fíamjeawon (University of Mauritius) 19. The Water Problems in Mauritius in an International Perspective 293 Zdzislaw Kaczmarek (IIASA) 20. Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Mauritius 297 Ferenc L. Toth (IIASA) 21. Aspects of Geographical Distribution on a Small Island: Future Settlement Patterns in Mauritius, Costs and Benefits 311 Einar Holm (University of Umeê) and Sture Öberg (IIASA) Closing Remarks 327 Nathan Keyfitz (IIASA) List of Participants 329 VII PART I. INTRODUCTION Chapter 1 A CASE STUDY ON MAURITIUS: TOWARDS THE HOLISTIC UNDERSTANDING OF A MICROCOSMOS Wolfgang Lutz II AS A The Population and Sustainable Development Project of IIASA's Population Program recently began an ambitious research project in scientific collaboration with the University of Mauritius and with financial support from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). The objective of this project is, stated in rather general terms, to study the complex interactions between population change, socio- economic development, and the physical environment for the island of Mauritius with the help of a computer information system that allows the quick and user- friendly evaluation of different development scenarios and options for political intervention. Countless papers and books on sustainable development have recently been written and are presently being produced, partly in preparation for the 1992 World Conference on Environment and Development to which the present project will also be input. Some of these also consider the role of the population variable in interaction with development and the environment. Typically such studies have a global perspective in geographic terms but tend to be rather narrow in the substantive approach to the question, ranging from specific schools of economic thinking to climatology and hydrology. Only very few studies give attention to social structure and behavior, life style, or even culture. But commonsense tells us that these factors are very important if we want to study changes in consumption patterns, types of energy use, land use, and other forms of behavior which are deeply embedded in the social fabric of a society. And these factors differ considerably from one region to another, and from one state of development to another. A global analysis of them especially ¡n conjunction with economic and environmental factors would be inconceivably complex. One alternative
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