Market visit Warsaw, Poland 11 September 2014
Agenda
Jørn Tolstrup Rohde SVP Western Europe
Western Europe - An attractive beer market
Carlsberg Group in Western Europe - Creating shareholder value
Strategy - Driving top line growth while transforming our operating model to deliver efficiencies
Country examples
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 Western Europe - beer volumes have been decreasing, but value has been growing
Western Europe markets Western Europe markets Beer volumes Index Beer retail value m.hl. 2000 = 100 104 173 100 103 168 162
2000 2010 2013 2000 2010 2013
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR 00-10 10-13 00-10 10-13 -0.3% -1.3% +0.3% +0.5%
Source: Volume based on internal estimates; retail value from Datamonitor (only off-trade)
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 3 Western Europe beer markets – representing a sizeable profit pool
• Western Europe beer markets profit pool – EBIT of DKK 11bn
France Italy Poland Scandinavia UK Switzerland Portugal South East Europe Greece Germany Baltics
Source: Internal estimates
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 4 Always looking for opportunities in pockets of growth in the Western European markets
… in packaging … in price segments Country X Country Z Cans volume Specialty beer volume +4% +20%
50% 49% 48% Rest of market 58% 61% 65% 59% Rest of market Carlsberg Carlsberg 50% 51% 52% 42% 39% 35% 41%
2011 2012 2013E 2011 2012 2013E 2014E
… in channels … in segments Country Y Discounters volume +3% Fresh / less processed non-pasteurized 67% 66% 66% Rest of market Carlsberg Cider 33% 34% 34%
2011 2012 2013E
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 5 Western Europe – half of Carlsberg Group
Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Group
2013 % of net revenue 58 27 15
2013 % of EBIT 47 36 17
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 6 Overview of markets in Western Europe
NORWAY Ringnes • No. 1 • Market share: 54% FRANCE • Breweries: 2 Kronenbourg SWEDEN • No. 1 Carlsberg Sverige FINLAND • Market share: 29% • No. 1 Sinebrychoff • Breweries: 1 • Market share: 33% • No. 1 • Market share: 53% • Breweries: 1 POLAND • Breweries: 1 Carlsberg Polska • No. 3 • Market share: 19% • Breweries: 3
SWITZERLAND Feldschlösschen UK BALTIC STATES • No. 1 Carlsberg UK Saku • Market share: 43% • No. 4 Aldaris • Breweries: 1 • Market share: 15% Svyturys-Utenos Alus • Breweries: 1 • No. 1 • Market share: 33-41% • Breweries: 3
DENMARK Carlsberg Danmark • No. 1 • Market share: 51% • Breweries: 1
GERMANY SOUTH EAST EUROPE ITALY Carlsberg Serbia (Northern) Carlsberg Italia Carlsberg Croatia PORTUGAL Carlsberg Deutschland • No. 4 Carlsberg Bulgaria Unicer • No. 1 • Market share: 7% Carlsberg Greece • No. 1 • Market share: 16% • Breweries: 1 • Market share: 48% • Breweries: 2 • No. 2-3 • Breweries: 1 • Market share: 15-26% • Breweries: 5
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 7 Outperforming the market in a challenging environment…
Beer volume Net revenue Operating profit Market share pro rata, m.hl DKKbn DKKbn % 38.8 50.2 36.5 49.0 +6% 5.3 -2%
+26% 4.2
+1.2ppt
2009 2013 2009 2013 2009 2013 2009 2013
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 8 …creating significant shareholder value
• Main drivers of ROIC improvement: Western Europe ROIC (%) – Improved operating margin – Decreased invested capital 18.0 • Since 2009 Western Europe has – Increased operating profit margin from 11.6% to 13.6% 13.6 – Decreased trade working capital
2009 2013
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 9 Western Europe created to capture benefits and outperform competition
• Western Europe region created to – Accelerate benefits from new operating model – Outperform competition
End 2012 one Western … to strengthen execution …and deliver on our Europe region was created of the Western Europe ambition in Western … transformation journey… Europe
• Implement a new opera- • Drive profitable top- and ting model – BSP1 – in bottom-line growth strong partnership with ahead of our peer group Carlsberg Supply Com- in Western Europe pany • Develop competitive best • Leverage scale benefits practices for the Group across all functions and • Develop a high perform- markets ing and mobile talent • Execute with determina- base tion and speed
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 10 Win by driving top line growth while transforming our operating model to deliver efficiencies
• Drive top line growth by capitalising on pockets of growth – Brands – Innovation – Customers • Transform our operating model to deliver efficiencies – BSP1 – Model organisation and shared services – Sales efficiency • Leveraging our people assets – Performance culture – People development – Mobile talents • Ensure – Environment – Packaging – Responsible drinking
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 11 International premium brands delivering 5% annual net revenue growth since 2011
International premium brands net revenue*
CAGR +5%
2011 2013
* In Western Europe
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 12 Strong focus on local power brands delivering positive results since 2011
• Strong re-launches Local power brands net revenue*
CAGR +3%
• Common growth programs and innovations
2011 2013
* In Western Europe
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 13 Increasing pace of innovations in Western Europe
• Creating winning Innovation share of net pipelines for our revenue* international brands
• Creating new winning growth platforms for local brands +2.5ppt
• Developing new brands for new profit pools
• Technology enablers 2011 2013
* In Western Europe
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 14 Somersby – the world’s fastest growing cider brand delivering strong growth in Western Europe
• Now in more than 40 markets around the world
Somersby Western Europe Iceland net revenue
CAGR +52%
2011 2013
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 15 Strong programmes in place to drive growth with key customers in challenging environment
Channel mix migration Retail environment changing Source: IGD Retail Analysis UK Channel Forecasts 2013-18
2013 2018
• Customers shift from on-trade to off- • Retailer concentration trade • Discounter growth • Multi-channel shopping & E-commerce
2014 key initiatives
Value Category / Customer Capability In-store management partnerships programme execution
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 16 In-Store execution is a key strategic choice: …. Carlsberg ‘FIT’ model being rolled out
Clear pictures of success
Sell-out skills, coaching sales aids
Clear targets, incentives, retailer insights and audits
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 17 700+ commercial managers participate in the Commercial Capability Development programme
• Since launch in 2012 the Capability Development Programme has: – Standardised processes and tools for a common way of working across all markets – Developed breadth and depth of content to improve market capabilities and individual competencies – Improved alignment of functional plans and execution within markets – Promoted sharing of ideas and activities across markets – Facilitated movement of talent
No. of people participating 750 516 322
2012 2013 2014
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 18 BSP1 - transforming our operating model via supply chain integration and business standardisation
• Implementation of BSP1 in Western Europe during 2013 - 2015 • Centralising management of procurement, production, planning and logistics across Western Europe • Benefits of BSP1 – Improve capabilities – Improve customer service and efficiency – Increase speed – Optimise asset utilisation • Implementation schedule on track – Markets on BSP1 by August 2014: Sweden, Norway and UK – Markets going live Q4 2014: Poland, Finland and Switzerland
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 19 Examples of sales/admin efficiency programmes: Model organisation and Field Force Efficiency
Model organisation and SSC Field Force Efficiency (FFE) Organizational alignment Efficiency from new ways of working
• Commercial organisations aligned to • Improvements driven within blueprints post BSP1; however, also organisational leverage, productivity tailored to market characteristics in/between outlets and optimum coverage/frequency • Shared service centre leveraged across all functions • Joint processes and tools across markets
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 20 A number of key enablers to leverage the most important asset: our people
• Performance management strengthened – Clear process supported by global tools – Strong link to people development (e.g. People Boards) • Strengthened people development – Functional development programmes – Leadership programmes – Focus on talent development • Mobility that makes a difference – More than 100 Short Term Assignments in 2013 – International mobility integrated into development path for high performers
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 21 Western Europe CSR strategy supports sustained and responsible growth
Carlsberg Group Strategy Focus areas Focus Environmental Sustainable Responsible Efficiency Packaging Drinking
Enablers
CSR COMMUNICATION
Policy implementation Support
CSR MANAGEMENT Local implementation
Reporting
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 22 We drive positive change in every market
1 Engaging with society 2 Driving responsible drinking Example: Sweden, CSR Day Example: Denmark, Drink with Respect
3 Driving efficiency in production 4 Drive Sustainable Packaging Example: data 2013 CSR report Example: Poland initiative
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 23 A few examples of markets with strong performance
France Norway Poland
• Context • Context • Context – Market leading position – Full beverage portfolio, – In 2009, distant number
acquired in 2008 overall market leader three player – Market premiumising – Stable market – Stable beer market but negative channel development – Modern trade growth, mix – Not capturing full especially discounters – Years of market share potential of strong • Key initiatives decline brand portfolio – Local power brand • Key initiatives • Key initiatives rejuvenation – Portfolio revamp and – Value management – Successful launch of innovation drive – In-store execution Group innovations – Efficiencies – Efficiencies – In-store execution – Strengthened team • Results • Results • Results – Market share growth in – Market share from 12% – Market share growth beer to 20% during past 12 months – Very strong financial – Very strong financial – EBIT doubled since performance performance 2008
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 24 Agenda
Q&A
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 Agenda
Tomasz Bławat CEO Carlsberg Polska
Polish beer market Carlsberg Polska in brief Driving growth Summary
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 Alcoholic beverages share of throat - Stable and dominant position of beer
Source: Statistical Office, Canadean
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 27 Beer landscape in Poland: A maturing, competitive market
• Over 80% with top 3 players • Positive to neutral image of beer • Stabilised at c. 38m hl • Per capita consumption of 96 litres • Growing segments: – Non-beer taste – Craft – Specialties
Index 2011 = 100
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 28 Market segmentation – price and channel
* Source: ACNielsen retail panel (rolling 3 months)
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 29 Carlsberg Polska Growth momentum sustained after EURO
Index 2011 = 100 Volume
121 124 114 100
Net revenue
124 126 115 100
Operating profit 142 131
100 89
2011 2012 2013 H1 2014*
* Rolling twelve months
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 30 Carlsberg Polska – Building value share ahead of volume
Carlsberg Polska Value share development in channels, pp Volume & value market share H1 ‘14 vs. H1 ‘13 (RTM)
+4pp +3.8pp Total Poland 1.6 -1.3 -1.3
Hypers 1.6 -3.6 -1.4 +2.6pp +2.5pp
Supers 3.3 -4.2 -1.0
Discounters -2.5 3.8 0.5
+1pp +1pp
Petrol 1.9 -4.0 -0.8
Traditional 2.3 -1.8 -1.8 2012 2013 H1 2014* Volume share Value share Competitor A Competitor B
Source: ACNielsen retail panel * H1 ‘14 vs. H1 ‘13 (RTM) Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 31 Carlsberg Polska – Strengthening market position
Value market share of key market players, % 40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0 jun-12 sep-12 dec-12 mar-13 jun-13 sep-13 dec-13 mar-14 jun-14
Source: ACNielsen retail panel
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 32 Carlsberg Polska Drivers of growth aligned with group agenda
Building national brand Executing in the market Securing supply portfolio
Driving effectiveness and Developing and engaging Carlsberg My Own efficiency people Company
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 33 Drivers of growth: National brand portfolio Brands across all sizeable segments
Carlsberg Share of total Segment brand volume*
Cool party beers Somersby 2%
Karmi Beer mix / Okocim 3% Flavoured Radler
International Carlsberg 7% premium
Okocim Strong 6% Mocne
Okocim JP Upper 28% Kasztelan Mainstream Harnaś 45% Lower Ksiąź
* MAT (08.2013-07.2014) * Ex-factory Data Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 34 Drivers of growth: National brand portfolio Applying Group portfolio tools
Upper mainstream Mainstream Lower mainstream
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 35 Drivers of growth: National brand portfolio Local power brand - Okocim
• Upper mainstream price • Relaunched in 2013 • Young / dynamic / challenge • Association with sports • Superior radler taste • Differentiated communication
Index 2011 = 100 Key figures - Okocim
157
125 113 +0.4pp
Volume Net revenue Contribution Value share*
* ACNielsen data
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 36 Drivers of growth: National brand portfolio Local power brand - Kasztelan
• Mainstream price • Launched nationally in 2010 • Freshness from nature • Association with barbecue and food • Non-pasteurized • Communication
Index 2011 = 100 Key figures - Kasztelan
177 177 156 +2.3pp
Volume Net revenue Contribution Value share*
* ACNielsen data
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 37 Drivers of growth: National brand portfolio Local power brand - Harnaś
• Lower mainstream price • Launched in 2003 • Reward after work • Association with mountains • Great lager taste • Communication
Index 2011 = 100 Key figures - Harnaś
155 134 137 +1.8pp
Volume Net revenue Contribution Value share*
* ACNielsen data
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 38 Drivers of growth: National brand portfolio Non-beer taste changing the mix
• Capitalizing on market trend • Recruiting new users • Value above average • Well received by trade • Dynamically growing new launches: – Somersby – Okocim Radlers • Karmi re-launch
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 39 Drivers of growth: National brand portfolio Utilising craft trend
• Responding to market trend • Portfolio – Affordable – Aspirational / traditional – Super premium • Gaining shares • Improving the mix • Above-average net sales and margin
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 40 Drivers of growth: National brand portfolio Strong position within international premium
Biggest IPB* in Poland Most premium Fastest growing
Key figures – International premium brands
160 152 132 +0.4pp
Volume Net revenue Contribution Value share**
* Internation premium brands ** ACNielsen data Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 41 Drivers of growth: Executing in the market Focused and stable execution agenda
• Building value by scale • Clear priorities • Alignment across the value chain • Focused on growth drivers agenda • Consumer facing investments • Supported by incentive schemes
Closing the gap • Distribution of Harnas exceeding competitor in June 2014
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 42 Drivers of growth: Securing supply Investing behind client satisfaction
• Investments in capacity • Investments in logistics • #1 supplier 2013***
* Kompania Piwowarska, Grupa Żywiec, Royal Unibrew ** Coca-Cola, Pepsico, Unilever, Pernod Ricard, Diageo *** Satisfaction survey by PUZZLE RESEARCH
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 43 Drivers of growth: Effectiveness and efficiency Throughout the value chain
• Investing in new systems and ways of working • BSP1 and effective and efficient supply chain • Strict cost management • Value management driving daily decisions • ROMI (return on marketing investments) used for maximising above-the-line returns
Value KPIs – Dynamics last 24 months
+4pp
-1.4pp -1.1pp
Operating margin OPEX margin Sales expenses
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 44 Drivers of growth: people engagement Low turnover and absentism vs. FMCG norm
Employee engagement 86 85
82
2011 2012 2013
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 45 Drivers of growth: Carlsberg My Own Company
• Winning behaviours • One team across functions – Ownership – Accountability – Bottom up cost control – Passion, drive to win – Investing in opportunities – CSR agenda
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 46 Carlsberg business in Poland - Leveraging CSR to drive business results
• Close cooperation with clients • Cross-functional effort
• Growing shares with clients • Reducing bottle loss • Increasing engagement
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 47 Carlsberg Polska Drivers of growth securing focused and stable agenda
Building national brand Executing in the market Securing supply portfolio
Driving effectiveness and Developing and engaging Carlsberg My Own efficiency people Company
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 48 Agenda
Paweł Piwowar VP Sales, Carlsberg Polska
Win with the winners Sales operating model - Route-to-market - Sales fundamentals execution Field force efficiency Summary
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 Market landscape in Poland
• Global customers are present • Very fragmented market
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 50 Market landscape in Poland
Off-trade
•~ 100,000 outlets*
•90% of total universe (volume)
On-trade
•~ 45,000 outlets*
•10% of total universe (volume)
* Based on Nielsen data
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 51 Market landscape in Poland
• Beer is the biggest category in off trade Modern Trade Beer 14.6 Vodka 10.1 Carbonated drinks 3.6 Coffee 3.5 Soft drinks 3.4 30% Fats 3.1 Water 2.9 70% Salty snacks 2.3 White cheese 2.3 Yoghurts 2.2 Wines 2.0 Yellow chees 1.9 Traditional Trade Cookies 1.7 Chocolate 1.7 Praines 1.5 Tea 1.3 Milk 1.3 Sweets 1.2 Waffles 1.2 Ice 0.4
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 52 Carlsberg Polska gaining share in recent years
• Three main brewers have a market share of >80%
2011 2014
Others Others Carlsberg Carlsberg 14.0% 16.5% 16.7% 19.8%
Compe- Compe- titor B titor B 30.5% 27.6%
Competitor A Competitor A 38.8% 36.1%
Market share increase of +3.1pp
Source: ACNielsen
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 53 Execute in the market – Win with the winners
• Sales value dynamics, indexed year-over-year
Total off-trade Modern trade Traditional trade 115 110 106 105 101 101 100 Beer 99 99 97 98 97 category
2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total off-trade Modern trade Traditional trade 139
119 115 113 113 114 108 109 104 104 99 100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: ACNielsen
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 54 Execute in the market – Win with the winning customers
• Sales value dynamics, indexed year-over-year
Total off-trade Customer A Customer B Customer C 128 123 123 120 117 109 111 110 Beer 106 106 107 103 category 101 99 99 99
2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total off-trade Total off-trade Total off-trade Total off-trade 175
156 151 143 135 140 122 125 122 122 115 113 108 109 110 101
2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: ACNielsen
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 55 Execute in the market – Route-to-market
Distribution model
Indirect Direct
Wholesalers + C&C Large format Service
Small format
On-trade
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 56 Execute in the market – Route-to-market
• How we invest
• Zone strategy – Investment prioritised by geography
• Service system – Investment prioritised by outlets
• Organisation – Geography & outlet potential based
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 57 Execute in the market - In-store execution
Sales execution Translated into daily Results execution
# of outlets selling 12 power SKUs Distribution
+25%
Pricing
2011 2014 Source: ACNielsen Coolers Number of coolers in the market
Displays +40%
Shelf 2011 2014
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 58 Execute in the market: Field-force efficiency
Span of control Organisational leverage Variabilisation
Maximisation of active selling time Productivity Time needed in outlets
Optimal coverage Field-force dimensioning
Visit frequency
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 59 Strong results – volume and value
Index 2011 = 100 Volume Net revenue
121 124 124 126 114 115 100 100
2011 2012 2013 H1 2014* 2011 2012 2013 H1 2014*
Value market share** Sales expenses/ net revenue
19,8% 19,3% 100
17,8% 91
16,7% 86 85
2011 2012 2013 H1 2014* 2011 2012 2013 H1 2014* * Rolling twelve months ** ACNielsen
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 60 Our drivers of continous growth
• Win with the winners
• Sales operating model
• Field force efficiency
… and we do it ASAP
As Simple As Possible
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 61 Agenda
Q&A
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements, including statements about the Group’s sales, revenues, earnings, spending, margins, cash flow, inventory, products, actions, plans, strategies, objectives and guidance with respect to the Group's future operating results. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain the words "believe", "anticipate", "expect", "estimate", "intend", "plan", "project", "will be", "will continue", "will result", "could", "may", "might", or any variations of such words or other words with similar meanings. Any such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the Group's actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in such forward- looking statements. Prospective information is based on management’s then current expectations or forecasts. Such information is subject to the risk that such expectations or forecasts, or the assumptions underlying such expectations or forecasts, may change. The Group assumes no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting such forward-looking statements.
Some important risk factors that could cause the Group's actual results to differ materially from those expressed in its forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: economic and political uncertainty (including interest rates and exchange rates), financial and regulatory developments, demand for the Group's products, increasing industry consolidation, competition from other breweries, the availability and pricing of raw materials and packaging materials, cost of energy, production and distribution related issues, information technology failures, breach or unexpected termination of contracts, price reductions resulting from market driven price reductions, market acceptance of new products, changes in consumer preferences, launches of rival products, stipulation of market value in the opening balance sheet of acquired entities, litigation, environmental issues and other unforeseen factors. New risk factors can arise, and it may not be possible for management to predict all such risk factors, nor to assess the impact of all such risk factors on the Group's business or the extent to which any individual risk factor, or combination of factors, may cause results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Accordingly, forward-looking statements should not be relied on as a prediction of actual results.
Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 63