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Market Visit Warsaw, Poland 11 September 2014

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Market Visit Warsaw, Poland 11 September 2014 Market visit Warsaw, Poland 11 September 2014 Agenda Jørn Tolstrup Rohde SVP Western Europe Western Europe - An attractive beer market Carlsberg Group in Western Europe - Creating shareholder value Strategy - Driving top line growth while transforming our operating model to deliver efficiencies Country examples Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 Western Europe - beer volumes have been decreasing, but value has been growing Western Europe markets Western Europe markets Beer volumes Index Beer retail value m.hl. 2000 = 100 104 173 100 103 168 162 2000 2010 2013 2000 2010 2013 CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR 00-10 10-13 00-10 10-13 -0.3% -1.3% +0.3% +0.5% Source: Volume based on internal estimates; retail value from Datamonitor (only off-trade) Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 3 Western Europe beer markets – representing a sizeable profit pool • Western Europe beer markets profit pool – EBIT of DKK 11bn France Italy Poland Scandinavia UK Switzerland Portugal South East Europe Greece Germany Baltics Source: Internal estimates Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 4 Always looking for opportunities in pockets of growth in the Western European markets … in packaging … in price segments Country X Country Z Cans volume Specialty beer volume +4% +20% 50% 49% 48% Rest of market 58% 61% 65% 59% Rest of market Carlsberg Carlsberg 50% 51% 52% 42% 39% 35% 41% 2011 2012 2013E 2011 2012 2013E 2014E … in channels … in segments Country Y Discounters volume +3% Fresh / less processed non-pasteurized 67% 66% 66% Rest of market Carlsberg Cider 33% 34% 34% 2011 2012 2013E Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 5 Western Europe – half of Carlsberg Group Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Group 2013 % of net revenue 58 27 15 2013 % of EBIT 47 36 17 Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 6 Overview of markets in Western Europe NORWAY Ringnes • No. 1 • Market share: 54% FRANCE • Breweries: 2 Kronenbourg SWEDEN • No. 1 Carlsberg Sverige FINLAND • Market share: 29% • No. 1 Sinebrychoff • Breweries: 1 • Market share: 33% • No. 1 • Market share: 53% • Breweries: 1 POLAND • Breweries: 1 Carlsberg Polska • No. 3 • Market share: 19% • Breweries: 3 SWITZERLAND Feldschlösschen UK BALTIC STATES • No. 1 Carlsberg UK Saku • Market share: 43% • No. 4 Aldaris • Breweries: 1 • Market share: 15% Svyturys-Utenos Alus • Breweries: 1 • No. 1 • Market share: 33-41% • Breweries: 3 DENMARK Carlsberg Danmark • No. 1 • Market share: 51% • Breweries: 1 GERMANY SOUTH EAST EUROPE ITALY Carlsberg Serbia (Northern) Carlsberg Italia Carlsberg Croatia PORTUGAL Carlsberg Deutschland • No. 4 Carlsberg Bulgaria Unicer • No. 1 • Market share: 7% Carlsberg Greece • No. 1 • Market share: 16% • Breweries: 1 • Market share: 48% • Breweries: 2 • No. 2-3 • Breweries: 1 • Market share: 15-26% • Breweries: 5 Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 7 Outperforming the market in a challenging environment… Beer volume Net revenue Operating profit Market share pro rata, m.hl DKKbn DKKbn % 38.8 50.2 36.5 49.0 +6% 5.3 -2% +26% 4.2 +1.2ppt 2009 2013 2009 2013 2009 2013 2009 2013 Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 8 …creating significant shareholder value • Main drivers of ROIC improvement: Western Europe ROIC (%) – Improved operating margin – Decreased invested capital 18.0 • Since 2009 Western Europe has – Increased operating profit margin from 11.6% to 13.6% 13.6 – Decreased trade working capital 2009 2013 Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 9 Western Europe created to capture benefits and outperform competition • Western Europe region created to – Accelerate benefits from new operating model – Outperform competition End 2012 one Western … to strengthen execution …and deliver on our Europe region was created of the Western Europe ambition in Western … transformation journey… Europe • Implement a new opera- • Drive profitable top- and ting model – BSP1 – in bottom-line growth strong partnership with ahead of our peer group Carlsberg Supply Com- in Western Europe pany • Develop competitive best • Leverage scale benefits practices for the Group across all functions and • Develop a high perform- markets ing and mobile talent • Execute with determina- base tion and speed Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 10 Win by driving top line growth while transforming our operating model to deliver efficiencies • Drive top line growth by capitalising on pockets of growth – Brands – Innovation – Customers • Transform our operating model to deliver efficiencies – BSP1 – Model organisation and shared services – Sales efficiency • Leveraging our people assets – Performance culture – People development – Mobile talents • Ensure – Environment – Packaging – Responsible drinking Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 11 International premium brands delivering 5% annual net revenue growth since 2011 International premium brands net revenue* CAGR +5% 2011 2013 * In Western Europe Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 12 Strong focus on local power brands delivering positive results since 2011 • Strong re-launches Local power brands net revenue* CAGR +3% • Common growth programs and innovations 2011 2013 * In Western Europe Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 13 Increasing pace of innovations in Western Europe • Creating winning Innovation share of net pipelines for our revenue* international brands • Creating new winning growth platforms for local brands +2.5ppt • Developing new brands for new profit pools • Technology enablers 2011 2013 * In Western Europe Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 14 Somersby – the world’s fastest growing cider brand delivering strong growth in Western Europe • Now in more than 40 markets around the world Somersby Western Europe Iceland net revenue CAGR +52% 2011 2013 Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 15 Strong programmes in place to drive growth with key customers in challenging environment Channel mix migration Retail environment changing Source: IGD Retail Analysis UK Channel Forecasts 2013-18 2013 2018 • Customers shift from on-trade to off- • Retailer concentration trade • Discounter growth • Multi-channel shopping & E-commerce 2014 key initiatives Value Category / Customer Capability In-store management partnerships programme execution Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 16 In-Store execution is a key strategic choice: …. Carlsberg ‘FIT’ model being rolled out Clear pictures of success Sell-out skills, coaching sales aids Clear targets, incentives, retailer insights and audits Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 17 700+ commercial managers participate in the Commercial Capability Development programme • Since launch in 2012 the Capability Development Programme has: – Standardised processes and tools for a common way of working across all markets – Developed breadth and depth of content to improve market capabilities and individual competencies – Improved alignment of functional plans and execution within markets – Promoted sharing of ideas and activities across markets – Facilitated movement of talent No. of people participating 750 516 322 2012 2013 2014 Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 18 BSP1 - transforming our operating model via supply chain integration and business standardisation • Implementation of BSP1 in Western Europe during 2013 - 2015 • Centralising management of procurement, production, planning and logistics across Western Europe • Benefits of BSP1 – Improve capabilities – Improve customer service and efficiency – Increase speed – Optimise asset utilisation • Implementation schedule on track – Markets on BSP1 by August 2014: Sweden, Norway and UK – Markets going live Q4 2014: Poland, Finland and Switzerland Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 19 Examples of sales/admin efficiency programmes: Model organisation and Field Force Efficiency Model organisation and SSC Field Force Efficiency (FFE) Organizational alignment Efficiency from new ways of working • Commercial organisations aligned to • Improvements driven within blueprints post BSP1; however, also organisational leverage, productivity tailored to market characteristics in/between outlets and optimum coverage/frequency • Shared service centre leveraged across all functions • Joint processes and tools across markets Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 20 A number of key enablers to leverage the most important asset: our people • Performance management strengthened – Clear process supported by global tools – Strong link to people development (e.g. People Boards) • Strengthened people development – Functional development programmes – Leadership programmes – Focus on talent development • Mobility that makes a difference – More than 100 Short Term Assignments in 2013 – International mobility integrated into development path for high performers Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 21 Western Europe CSR strategy supports sustained and responsible growth Carlsberg Group Strategy Focus areas Environmental Sustainable Responsible Efficiency Packaging Drinking Enablers CSR COMMUNICATION Policy implementation Support CSR MANAGEMENT Local implementation Reporting Market visit - Carlsberg Polska - 11 September 2014 22 We drive positive change in every market 1 Engaging with society 2 Driving responsible drinking Example: Sweden, CSR Day Example: Denmark, Drink with Respect 3 Driving efficiency in production 4 Drive Sustainable Packaging
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