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DOCTORAL (Phd) DISSERTATION ERJAN AKHMEDOV DOCTORAL (PhD) DISSERTATION ERJAN AKHMEDOV UNIVERSITY OF KAPOSVAR FACULTY OF ECONOMIC SCIENCE DOCTORAL (PhD) SCHOOL FOR MANAGEMENT AND ORGANIZATIONAL SCIENCE 2018 2 UNIVERSITY OF KAPOSVAR FACULTY OF ECONOMIC SCIENCE DOCTORAL (PhD) SCHOOL FOR MANAGEMENT AND ORGANIZATIONAL SCIENCE Head of the Doctoral (PhD) School PROFESSOR DR. IMRE FERTŐ, DSC. Hungarian Academy of Sciences Name of the principal supervisor PROFESSOR DR. KONRAD WETZKER CONSEQUENCES OF OIL PRICE PLUNGES FOR THE KAZAKH ECONOMY AND POSSIBLE MITIGATION MEASURES Written by: ERJAN AKHMEDOV Type of training Scholarship-funded training - Stipendium Hungaricum Scholarship KAPOSVÁR 2018 Table of Contents List of figures ................................................................................................... 5 List of tables ..................................................................................................... 7 List of abbreviations......................................................................................... 8 Introduction .................................................................................................... 10 1. Literature review ........................................................................................ 11 1.1. Consequences of oil price plunges ...................................................... 11 1.2. Economic diversification .................................................................... 15 1.3. Possible mitigation measures .............................................................. 16 1.4. Econometric model ............................................................................. 19 2. Objectives of the research. Explanation of the chosen approach ............... 21 2.1. Objectives of the research ................................................................... 21 2.2. Previous researches and sources used ................................................. 21 2.3. Preliminary research plan .................................................................... 21 2.4. Preliminary conclusions of the research ............................................. 21 2.5. Preliminary vision of results to be received through this research ..... 22 3. Methods used and sources of data.............................................................. 23 3.1. Approach ............................................................................................. 23 4. Causes of the last oil price plunge ............................................................. 24 4.1. Influx of Iraq crude oil to the market. ................................................. 24 4.2. The US is no longer the biggest buyer of crude oil ............................ 24 4.3. Success of renewable sources of energy ............................................. 25 4.4. Development and introduction of new technologies........................... 26 4.5. Success of energy efficiency and energy conservation efforts ........... 27 4.6. Expected influx of Iran crude oil to the market .................................. 27 4.7. Slowdown of China’s economic development .................................... 27 4.8. Political instability .............................................................................. 28 5. Consequences for oil-exporting and oil-importing countries .................... 30 5.1. Background ......................................................................................... 30 5.2. Consequences for oil-exporting countries ........................................... 31 5.3. Consequences for oil-importing countries .......................................... 41 6. Situation in Kazakhstan as an oil-exporting country ................................. 44 2 6.1. Kazakhstan’s economy during the periods of low oil prices .............. 44 6.2. Economic prospects ............................................................................ 55 6.3. First reaction of the Kazakh economy on the last oil price plunge .... 57 6.4. Migration ............................................................................................ 60 7. Econometric model .................................................................................... 70 7.1. Introduction ........................................................................................ 70 7.2. Sources of data ................................................................................... 71 7.3. Software used ..................................................................................... 71 7.4. Data and their abbreviations ............................................................... 71 7.5. Lag selection ....................................................................................... 73 7.6. VAR system calculation ..................................................................... 74 7.7. Analysis of the model ......................................................................... 76 7.8. Conclusion .......................................................................................... 79 8. Scenario analysis ....................................................................................... 80 8.1. Scenarios under consideration ............................................................ 81 8.2. Assignment of probabilities to each scenario ..................................... 81 8.3. Potential outcomes for each scenario ................................................. 82 8.4. Pugh matrix ........................................................................................ 83 8.5. Conclusion .......................................................................................... 89 9. Analysis of potential mitigation measures................................................. 91 9.1. Introduction ........................................................................................ 91 9.2. Main measures used by OECs’ governments to mitigate negative consequences ............................................................................................. 92 9.2.1. Financial and fiscal policy adjustments ....................................... 92 9.2.2. Withdrawals from reserve assets ................................................. 93 9.2.3. Increase of oil production ............................................................ 95 9.2.4. Economic liberalization ............................................................... 97 9.2.5. Other measures ............................................................................ 99 9.3. Summary ........................................................................................... 100 9.4. Measures implemented by the government of Kazakhstan .............. 102 9.5. Main problems, which prevent economic recovery.......................... 105 9.6. Problems in the oil and gas industry ................................................. 106 3 9.7. Economic diversification .................................................................. 107 10. Conclusions and recommendations. ....................................................... 120 11. New scientific results ............................................................................. 123 12. Summary ................................................................................................ 124 13. Summary in Hungarian .......................................................................... 125 14. Acknowledgements ................................................................................ 126 15. Scientific papers and abstracts on the subject of the dissertation .......... 127 15.1. Peer-reviewed papers published in scientific journals in English ... 127 15.2. Abstracts in English ........................................................................ 127 16. Curriculum Vitae.................................................................................... 128 Bibliography................................................................................................. 129 Attachments ................................................................................................. 138 4 List of figures Figure 1. World economic growth and oil price dynamics, 2003-2017…....14 Figure 2. Incremental oil production since January 2014………….…...…..25 Figure 3. US Crude Oil Production……………………………….…….…..26 Figure 4. Average monthly Brent crude oil price, 2003-2018 (US$/bbl)…...31 Figure 5. Petroleum and refined products share in total exports, 2013 and 2016…………………………………………………………….…………...33 Figure 6. Commodity price indices, 2000-2015 (2005=100)……..……..….34 Figure 7. 2013 External breakeven oil price curve……….………..……….39 Figure 8. 2016 External breakeven oil price curve…………………………39 Figure 9. Kazakhstan and the neighboring countries map………………….45 Figure 10. Crude oil price projections by the US EIA……………………...51 Figure 11. Crude oil price and Kazakh GDP, 2003-2016……………...…...52 Figure 12. Crude oil price and Kazakh GDP changes, 2003-2016…..…..…53 Figure 13. Average oil price assumptions used in the Kazakh budget versus average annual OPEC crude oil price, US$/bbl…………………………….56 Figure 14. Contribution of different factors to real GDP growth, 2012-15 (Percentage points)………………………………………………………….58 Figure 15. Oil price dynamics in 2013-2016, US$/bbl………………….….59 Figure 16. Real wage index dynamics in 2013-2016……………………….59 Figure 17. Consumer price index dynamics, 2013-2016……………….…...60 Figure 18. Export dynamics in 2013-2016, US$bn……………….………...60 Figure 19. US$/KZT exchange rate dynamics in 2013-2016……….………60 Figure 20. Number of
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