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Conflict Analysis of Afghanistan

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Conflict Analysis of Afghanistan Friedrich‐Ebert ‐Stiftung Conflict Analysis of Afghanistan Bahram Rahman August of 2008 Content: Page 1. Overview………………………………………………………………....….03 2. Present Conflict Situation of ..Afghanistan…………………………….03 3. Causes of Conflict in Afghanistan………………………………………05 3.1. Structural Causes…………………...…………..…………………..……….05 3.1.1. Geography and Ethnic Division……………………………..…...….05 3.1.2. Ideology and Religion……………………………...…………………..07 3.1.3. Kabul, a Failed Government………………..………………..……….08 3.1.4. Central –periphery Relationship………….………………..…………09 3.1.5. International Dimension of Afghanistan’s Conflict……………….09 3.2 Socio-economical Factors………..………………………………………..12 3.2.1Warlordism…………………………………………………………………12 3.2.2 Socio-Political Reform and Traditional Factors Resistance..…….12 3.2.3The Narcotic Economy………………….………………………………13 4. The Actors of Afghanistan’s Conflict………………………….………...13 4. Actors in Conflict and the Forces of Peace 5. The new Approaches…………………..…………...……………...……..15 2 1. Overview: Afghanistan is one the most conflict effected countries of the world, experiencing a complex interaction of internal and external conflict factors in its past thirty years till now which has devastated the country in to the ashes. After the fall of Taliban and establishment of a new democratic government with the help of the international community, Afghanistan still faces an immense challenge in state building process, conflict transformation and peace building. The internal ethnical lines, religion, geo-political and traditional differences have plunged the modernization process Afghanistan has taken since 2001. The waves of conflict started in 1970 based on the ideological and political differences in Afghanistan, which still the differences of ideology, ethnics, language, and religion has escalated the conflict after many attempts of interventions of peace building and reconciliation. The conflict of Afghanistan has many internal and external lines, which interact in a complex manner. These lines pose individually or in a complex matrix a giant challenge in Afghanistan’s peace and future development. In this report we have tried to provide a condense and systematic study of conflict from three most important dimension of; Present conflict situation of Afghanistan, Causes of conflict in Afghanistan with an in-depth overview of different conflict lines and the Actors in Afghanistan’s conflict. Finally, this analysis will end with recommendation for the process of conflict transformation and peace building in Afghanistan. 2. Present Conflict Situation of Afghanistan: After the fall of Taliban and establishment of a new government in Afghanistan, the conflict of Afghanistan has taken a different path. For the first time Afghanistan’s’ different fighting factions came under one coalition government backed by the international community. The three pillars of state the Government, Parliament and Judicial system have been completed after the first parliamentary election in 2005. Despite of huge efforts in state building and peace process the conflict remain and have been aggravated in the last seven years. The ethnical conflict remains one as the most important conflicts today Afghanistan faces beside other issues such as terrorism, insurgency, political instability and weak governance. 3 Hence, the Russian invasion and the direct interference of Pakistan in mid-1990 until the fall of Taliban, the central power vacuum has been created in result of illegitimate central government. The tribal elders with the Islamic and traditional thoughts have lost their influence and position during the years of war and rapid democratization process since 2001. Instead, the power has been shifted to three different younger groups; the more radical Mujahedeen group, the pro- democratic group and the ethnical hardliners. In the result these change of authority shacked the social network of power and partly gives a hegemonic role to the radical and extreme form of Islam in the political system of Afghanistan. On the political level, the dimension of conflict in Afghanistan has changed to a new pattern. Today, it is not the divergence of political ideology that causes conflict, it the unbalance political sharing in the government and national and local identity problems have created the baseline for political maneuvers and alliances. As today the conflict in Afghanistan shapes different dimensions, the bases for the emergence of new conflicts get vast. Different new conflicts have emerged such as the problem of land, socio-economical marginalization of different ethnics with the wave of ethnical centralism, the national identity recognition and the interaction of ethnical centralism with radical forms of Islam. In the social context, the difference interpretations of Islam, ethnical differences and the economical instability have created sporadic pockets of populations. Each ethnic lives with mistrust inside the society that in result disrupts the formation of social networks to work on peace building and reconciliation process. Despite of the support of the international community militarily and socially, the conflict in Afghanistan gets aggravated in the last 7 years. The trust on the role of international military engagement as part of solution in Afghanistan’s conflict has been decreased since 2001. Today the people of Afghanistan look beyond the military engagement and ask for more cooperation on the civilian engagement of the international community as the only alternative in conflict transformation for Afghanistan. The insecurity in the mid-south of the country has increased since 2001. Today the Afghan government has been marginalized only in Kabul and Northern 4 provinces. Even the security situation of Kabul has been deteriorated in the last two years. The organized crime, opium cultivation and trade created the new frontier of conflict beside the fighting groups such as Taliban and the Hezbih Islami (Islamic Party) of Gulbudin Hekmatyar for the government in Kabul. At the same line, the former Jihadis and local warlords control the local governments in the provinces, which put the Afghan government more in a weak position of state building autonomy. The constant intense warfare and weak governance of Kabul generate the most dreadful form of challenge to future peace and stability in direct and indirect ways. In sum, today Afghanistan locates on one of the most sensitive eras of its present history in desperate need of international support to unravel successfully itself from the violent past and uncertain today to a prosperous and peaceful future. The first steps to achieve this aim have been taken which its depiction has been clear in the last seven years of progress in Afghanistan- In fact it is possible to achieve but more coordination and support not militarily but economically and socially is needed with patience. 3. Causes of Conflict in Afghanistan: As the causes of conflict differs in each dimension of conflict in Afghanistan it would be appropriate to classify the causes of conflict in Afghanistan in to two categories A) The structural causes of conflict, B) The socio-economical causes. It is important to mention that the causes do not act individually but in strong interaction with each other in the creation of conflict in Afghanistan. 3.1. Structural Causes of Conflict in Afghanistan 3.1.1. Geography and Ethnical Division: Afghanistan is deeply divided by its geography and ethnical composition. The mountain of Hindukush has divided the country to two mid-sections; the north mainly with Tajik, Uzbek and Turkmen inhabitants and the south mainly with tribal Pashtuns. In the central region of Afghanistan the third largest ethnical group 5 residues, the Hazaraas, they speak Persian but with different accent and live with different traditions. The mountainous geography of Afghanistan has created a huge distance between each tribe and ethnics. Same, the interpretation of Islam diverges immensely between different Afghan ethnical tribes. Therefore, in result, we have the radical Islamists in the south and east and more moderate interpretation of Islam in the north and west of the country. The ethnical divide, which is one of the most important causes of conflict in Afghanistan today, it has grown up during the years of civil war and Taliban. It is a reality that we should not ignore it. Nevertheless, today, this ethnical cause of conflict has been aggravated and caused mistrust between not only the ordinary Afghans but among the elite population of Afghanistan too. The main conflict lines in ethnical causes of conflict in Afghanistan are the issues of language and local identity recognition. Other ethnics criticize the central government for being marginalized by a dominant Pashtuns’ influence. The issue of balanced power sharing according to the ethnicities of Afghanistan has been one of the main priorities of the political parties shaped in the last 7 years. Hence, the line of differences increases between ethnicities; it is getting hard for a successful conflict transformation and peace building in Afghanistan. Moreover, this ethnical division caused one of the biggest challenges of Afghanistan today, the trust crisis. Today Afghans have lost the trust on each other, which in result have caused the uncertainty of national identity and national unity. Today, it is believed among Afghans that Afghanistan never had national unity based on the understanding and acceptance of each other as citizens of Afghanistan. It is even getting harder for some ethnical
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