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Final Report Transition to Sustainable Energy in the US Wind Energy Option Presented By: Christine Acker, Yash Agarwal , Nael Aoun, Stephen Clark Alex Hernandez, Nancy Lin, Jesse Negherbon Dimitre Ouzounov, and Reginald Preston Presented For: Francis Vanek, CEE 5910 Advisor May 5, 2009 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................... 6 PART I: INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................................. 8 I.1. Motivations for the project..........................................................................................................................................8 I.1.1. Planet climate change.................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 I.1.1.1. Evidences of climate change.......................................................................................................................................................... 9 I.1.1.2. Reasons for planet climate change...........................................................................................................................................10 I.1.2. Present world energy needs and future projections..................................................................................................................13 I.1.2.1. Drivers of energy needs growth ................................................................................................................................................13 I.1.2.2. Historical dynamics of primary energy needs and future projections ...................................................................14 I.1.3. Electricity generation................................................................................................................................................................................16 I.2. Overview of the parts of the project: industry-wide and site-specific, recommendations at end, etc.................................................................................................................................................................................................18 I.3. Introduction to the team and team structure..................................................................................................19 Part I: Introduction References......................................................................................................................................21 PART II: INDUSTRY-WIDE RESEARCH ....................................................................................................................22 II.1. Current and Future Demands................................................................................................................................22 II.1.1. Introduction to Part II..............................................................................................................................................................................22 II.1.2. Renewable Electricity-generating Sources....................................................................................................................................22 II.1.2.1. Review of new renewable resources.....................................................................................................................................22 II.1.2.1.1. Biomass Power.......................................................................................................................................................................22 II.1.2.1.2. Geothermal Power................................................................................................................................................................23 II.1.2.1.3. Solar photovoltaic.................................................................................................................................................................24 II.1.2.1.4. Concentrated Solar Power................................................................................................................................................25 II.1.2.1.5. Wind Power.............................................................................................................................................................................26 II.1.2.2. Comparative Study of Renewable Electricity Generating Sources..........................................................................27 II.1.2.3. Financials and Investment Flows............................................................................................................................................30 II.1.3. International Goals and Growth .........................................................................................................................................................32 II.1.3.1. International Treaties, from Kyoto to Copenhagen........................................................................................................32 II.1.3.1.1. Opposition of Social Movements...................................................................................................................................34 II.1.3.1.2. Global GHG emissions.........................................................................................................................................................35 II.1.3.1.3. Copenhagen: Effects on Wind Energy.........................................................................................................................35 II.1.3.1.3.1. Targets.............................................................................................................................................................................36 II.1.3.1.3.2. The flexible mechanisms.........................................................................................................................................36 II.1.3.2. The Status of Global Wind Power in 2008...........................................................................................................................37 II.1.3.3. Global Market Forecast for 2009-2013 ................................................................................................................................41 II.1.3.4. Focus Regions....................................................................................................................................................................................43 II.1.3.4.1. European Union.....................................................................................................................................................................43 II.1.3.4.1.1. The current EU legislative framework for wind energy, past trends................................................43 II.1.3.4.1.2. The future EU legislative framework for wind energy.............................................................................44 II.1.3.4.1.3. Industry concerns about future policy.............................................................................................................45 II.1.3.4.1.4. Energy Efficiency Scenarios and Wind Energy ............................................................................................48 II.1.3.4.2. People’s Republic of China ...............................................................................................................................................50 II.1.3.4.2.1. New Role in International Negotiations as Major Polluter ....................................................................50 II.1.3.4.2.2. The 10 GW-size Wind Base Program................................................................................................................51 II.1.3.4.2.3. Motor of Global Growth in the Financial Crisis............................................................................................52 II.1.4. Federal Incentives .....................................................................................................................................................................................52 II.1.4.1. Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................................................52 II.1.4.2. Corporate Tax Credits...................................................................................................................................................................55 II.1.4.3. Corporate Depreciation................................................................................................................................................................56 II.1.4.4. Industry Recruitment and Support ........................................................................................................................................58 II.1.4.5. Federal Grant Program.................................................................................................................................................................58 II.1.4.6. Federal Loan Program ..................................................................................................................................................................59 II.1.4.7. Personal Tax Credit........................................................................................................................................................................61
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