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Ex-Post Monitoring Report

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Ex-Post Monitoring Report (Field Survey: August 2007) Ex-post Monitoring Report Evaluator: Atsushi Hashimoto （Maenam Advisory Co., Ltd.) Project Name: Sri Lanka “Transportation Rehabilitation Project (Railways)” (L/A No. SL-P25) Loan Outline Loan Amount/Disbursed Amount : 10,617 million yen/ 9,114 million yen Loan Agreement : August 1990 Final Disbursement Date : November 1999 Ex-post Evaluation : FY2002 Executing Agency : Sri Lanka Railways Project Objective The objective is to strengthen railway transport capacity by developing railway infrastructure (repairing locomotive performance, modernizing a rolling stock workshop, and rehabilitating track) in the Greater Colombo area, and thereby contribute to the improvement of the relative convenience of the railway as a means of transportation. Consultant: Japan Railway Technical Service, etc. Contractors: Itochu Corporation, ABB HENSCHEL AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (Germany), etc. Overview of Results Item At Time of Ex-Post Evaluation At Time of Ex-Post Monitoring Effectiveness This project consisted of (1) improvement of tracks (i) overall track and Impact improvement (approximately 100 km) of a congested track segment on the Given the aged condition of the infrastructure of the Sri Lanka Railway, outskirts of Colombo (Colombo-Bampalapitiya, Colombo -Gampaha, (ii) the railway infrastructure developed by this project is producing a Effectiveness laying of auxiliary rails to prevent derailing on sharp curves on the certain effect on maintenance of transport capacity and is still effective. Colombo-Kandy segment, Colombo-Negombo segment, and the Nearly all of the equipment introduced at the rolling stock workshop is Colombo-Galle segment, (2) rehabilitation of 10 diesel hydraulic in use and is effective in ensuring transport capacity, but there is still locomotives, and (3) procurement and installation of equipment for repairing room for improvement in the efficiency of the workshop’s operation. locomotives at a rolling stock workshop. Reference: Concerning Sri Lanka Railways (SLR) SLR’s total track length is 1,640 km (at the time of examination). There is no train service in the northeastern area. As part of track extension work, double tracks are being built on single-track sections on the Colombo-Kandy segment. To maintain transport capacity, purchases are 1 Item At Time of Ex-Post Evaluation At Time of Ex-Post Monitoring being made of locomotives, passenger cars, and diesel multiple units (DMUs, with 6 passenger cars; one unit consists of a front section that is both a locomotive and a passenger car, 4 passenger cars, and a rear section that is a passenger and a driver’s seat; used on local and commuter lines). In addition, from 2000 up to the present, construction of 5 bridges and a southern coastal line communications project have been implemented. (1) Number of passengers and passenger volume (1)Number of passengers and passenger volume As shown on the Table 1 below, both the number of passengers and the As shown on the table below, the number of travelers declined from the passenger volume has topped out since 2003. According to Sri Lanka mid-1990s. Sri Lanka Railway attributes this to a shortage of locomotives. Railway, there exists a passenger demand which exceeds the transport Meanwhile in 1999, tracks were repaired and rehabilitated locomotives were volume. It appears that, given the current condition of repair of the tracks introduced, and to measure the effect of that, it is necessary to continue and the available passenger cars, the transport capacity cannot meet the observation of the service record henceforth. demand. Table 1: Number of Passengers and Passenger Volume (2000-2006) Table 1: Number of Passengers and Passenger Volume (1990-2000) 2000 2001 2002 2003 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Number of Actual 84.2 95.6 106.3 113.1 Number of Actual 68 70 73 78 85 Passengers Index 124 141 156 166 Passengers Index (million (million 100 103 107 115 125 persons) persons) Passenger Actual 2,780 2,653 2,613 2,821 3,201 Passenger Actual 3207.5 3979.0 4079.3 4606.2 Volume Volume Index Index 115 143 147 166 (million (1990＝100) 100 95 94 101 115 (million person-km) person-km) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Passenger Income 740.9 868.7 958.4 976.7 Number of Actual 87 82 81 82 83 (million rupees) Passengers Index 2004 2005 2006 (million 128 121 119 121 122 persons) Number of Actual 114.6 114.4 105.6 Passenger Actual 3,321 3,103 3,146 3,147 3,175 Passengers Index 168 168 155 Volume Index (million (million (1990＝100) 119 112 113 113 114 persons) person-km) Passenger Actual 4604.2 4357.6 4311.8 Source: Responses to questionnaire study, “Facts and Figures (1990-1999)” (Sri Volume Lanka Railway) Index 166 157 155 (million person-km) Passenger Income 1266.1 1478.8 1826.1 2 Item At Time of Ex-Post Evaluation At Time of Ex-Post Monitoring (million rupees) Index: 1990=100 Source: Sri Lanka Railway The table below shows the number of operating locomotives. It cannot be said that transport capacity has grown since the time of the appraisal (1990), and it is apparent that transport capacity does not meet passenger demand. Meanwhile, the 8 operating diesel hydraulic locomotives in Table 2 are the 8 out of the 10 that were rehabilitated with the loan. Although there is a lack of growth in the transport capacity, it can be seen that the locomotives rehabilitated by this project are contributing to the maintenance of the transport capacity. Table 2: Comparison of Transport Capacity (number of operating locomotives) At time of At time of Ex-Post Monitoring Appraisal Repairable Operating Diesel electric 74 87 47 locomotives Diesel hydraulic 41 14 8 locomotives DMU 38 48 32 153 149 87 Source: Sri Lanka Railway, JBIC materials (2) Freight volume (2)Freight volume Freight volume is 1.5 times the volume in 2000, but has basically topped In contrast to passenger volume, freight volume has been sluggish since the out since 2004 like passenger volume. According to Sri Lanka Railway, early 1990s. As shown on the table below, freight volume (t/km) is in a there is demand for freight transport, but once locomotives are allocated to downtrend accompanying a decline in average transport distance. At the time passenger transport, there are not enough locomotives remaining to meet of appraisal, the volume and demand for FY1998 were forecast at 2.2 and 374, the demand for freight transport. respectively. Overall, the figures fall far short of the original forecast. Table 3: Freight Volume Table 2: Freight Statistics (Volume and Demand) 2000 2001 2002 2003 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Freight volume Actual 88.4 108.5 130.5 128.6 Actual 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 Volume (million t-km) Index 100 123 148 145 (million-km) Index 100 100 114 100 100 3 Item At Time of Ex-Post Evaluation At Time of Ex-Post Monitoring Actual 163.8 169.1 166.0 159.2 154.1 Freight income (million Demand 165.4 216.4 280.4 266.9 rupees) (million+-km) Index 100 103 101 97 94 （1999＝100） 2004 2005 2006 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Freight volume Actual 134.2 134.8 138.2 Volume Actual 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 (million t-km) Index 152 152 156 (million-km) Index 86 79 79 93 86 Freight income (million 319.6 329.1 392.5 Actual 136.7 107.5 96.4 105.1 94.5 Demand rupees) (million+-km) Index 83 66 59 64 58 Index: 2000=100 （1999＝100） Source: Sri Lanka Railway Source: “Facts and Figures (1990-1999)” (Sri Lanka Railway) (3) Number of trains operated and operating rate (3) Number of trains operated and operating rate The figure below illustrates the number of trains operated. The number of Table 4 shows the number of trains operated and operating rate. The trains operated decreased in the middle of the 1990s, mainly due to political planned number of trains in service is peaking just like the transport instability and the subsequent deterioration of track and shortage of volume. The planned number of trains in service is not established based locomotives. The operating rate, however, has consistently exceeded 90%, and on demand forecasts but must be established based on the number of the number of passenger trains operated has been increasing since the available locomotives, and so naturally the operating rate is high. mid-1990s, possibly because of the addition of 10 rehabilitated locomotives. Furthermore, the reason why the actual number in service exceeded the planned number in 2006 is that there were many extra trains in service. Figure 1: Number of Passenger Trains Operated and Operating Rate Table 4: Number of Passenger Trains (planned/actual) 2001 2002 2003 Planned number 125116 125575 122322 of trains in No. of Trains Operated service (trains) Operating Actual number of 119951 119321 115901 Rate trains in service (trains) Operating Rate 95.9 95.0 94.8 (%) Trains on time 50223 48894 46859 (trains) Percentage on 41.9 41.0 40.4 Source: Sri Lanka Railway time (%) Note 1）： (operating rate)=(number of trains actually operated)/(number of trains on the 2004 2005 2006 books) Planned number 116151 116024 106988 ）： Note 2 Data for 1996 are not available from SLR. of trains in 4 Item At Time of Ex-Post Evaluation At Time of Ex-Post Monitoring (4）Delay conditions service (trains) The punctuality of train operation, which worsened in the middle of the 1990s, Actual number of 108772 106535 108408 has returned to early-1990s levels as a result of track improvement and trains in service rehabilitation. In 2000, nearly half of the trains operated on time (or less than 5 (trains) minutes late), and more than 60% of them were 10 minutes or less late.
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