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Indistinct Threat Identity #6 (136) June 2019 The end of the era of poverty: Interview with Ulana Suprun How Taras Shevchenko to be continued? on the future of the healthcare reform saved Halychyna INDISTINCT THREAT IDENTITY WWW.UKRAINIANWEEK.COM FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION CONTENTS 3 BRIEFING ECONOMICS 4 The poisonous recipe from Kolomoiskiy 26 Is this the end of “the era of poverty”? The consequences of default for Ukraine On the “challenging” economic and social situation of the past couple of years POLITICS 28 Cloud on the horizon 8 The return of threat On the powerful economic challenges for Michael Binyon (London) on the rise of Ukraine over the next several months right-wing populism around the world 10 Jerry Skinner: SOCIETY “We want to make in the case of clear 31 Just the first step that this was a deliberate act designed The new language bill and its flaws to be a provocation for the August 34 Ulana Suprun: “Raising awareness is our invasion” great responsibility” American attorney representing the Minister of Healthcare of Ukraine families of those killed in the disaster of on the most dangerous superstitions in the Malaysian MH17 flight on the lawsuit healthcare, the development of critical against the Russian Federation thinking and the future of the healthcare 12 No U-turn is allowed reform and its opponents Why results of the Ukrainian presidential NEIGHBORS elections absolutely do not mean Ukrainians’ desire for a shift in foreign 38 Rhetoric is changed in ORDiLO policy? How the initiatives to return to Ukraine as autonomy have intensified 14 Master of improvisation in the occupied Donbas On the new President’s first steps and a few potential problems 40 Political games Philippe de Lara (Paris) on the elections FOCUS to the European Parliament 16 The power of Facebook HISTORY Do we stand a chance to win a battle for social networks? 42 A timely cult The idea of Ukraine survived in Halychyna 20 Who elects Ukraine’s presidents in the mid-19th century thanks to Taras On the socio-demographic portrait of Shevchenko’s works the electorate for the top presidential candidates in the past 20 years 46 A prologue to the restoration of the empire 22 Ghosts of the past On the Ukraine-Russia Union Treaty in Will Zelenskiy be in charge of previous 1920 regime’s political revenge? 24 Anticipating revenge CULTURE & ARTS The possibility of return of Pro-Russian 50 The months of music and Ivana Kupala forces: internal and external menaces The Ukrainian Week offers a selection of for Ukraine events to visit in June and July E-mail [email protected] www.ukrainianweek.com Tel. (044) 351-13-00 The Ukrainian Week #6 (136) June 2019 Office address Kyiv, Ukraine, 36A, vul. Bohdana Khmelnytskoho, apt. 3 Founder ECEM Media GmbH. Publisher ECEM Media GmbH Print run 15 000. Free distribution Address Austria, Am Gestade, 1, 1010 Vienna Our partner State registration certificate КВ № 19823-9623ПР 19.03.2013 Chief Editor Dmytro Krapyvenko Editors Max Nestelieiev, Lidia Wolanskyj 4 THE UKRAINIAN WEEK | #6 (136) June 2019 5 The poisonous recipe from Kolomoiskiy Lyubomyr Shavalyuk BRIEFING Quite some news! Oligarch Ihor Kolomoiskiy said in an in- terview for the Financial Times that Ukraine should follow Greece’s suit, quit the IMF’s austerity policy and default on its external debt at least. The statement triggered an outcry in Ukraine and beyond. No matter how you analyse it, there is little good in it for Ukraine. REUTERS PHOTO: 6 BRIEFING | Start with Greece. It decided not to cover its debt to Other lenders look watch it, including the World Bank, the Troika of the IMF, ECB and the European Commis- the European Investment Bank, the EBRD and others. sion. The decision was put on a referendum on July 5, Quitting cooperation with the IMF will push them away 2014. Greece was in the following economic position: the too. If Ukraine fails to meet its obligations, it will lose permanent economic crisis had eaten 26.5% of its real other elements of the Western geopolitical support which GDP between 2008 and 2013, unemployment had grown includes military cooperation – and the transition of the BOOKSTORES from 7.3% in 2008 to 27.8% in the summer of 2013, emi- Ukrainian military to NATO standards, – economic co- gration sped up and more. In fact, the deep crisis lasted operation, including the Association Agreement with the six years and profoundly changed the country and the EU, and more. Who will want to deal with an unreliable mood of its population. partner? Economic growth recovered in 2014, albeit re- South American countries that have declared defaults mained slow. The country was exhausted by the lengthy were not in war with a much stronger enemy and did not LUTSK vul. Lesi Ukrayinky 30 belt-tightening. When the next debt payments were due need geopolitical support as much as Ukraine does. Does and Troika offered another dose of bitter austerity pills, Kolomoiskiy have anything to offer as an alternative? If the government decided to avoid responsibility by plac- he means the support of Israel where he lived until re- RIVNE vul. Korolenka 2 ing it on the shoulders of the people and running an- cently, this country can provide serious military support. SUMY other referendum. The outcome of the vote surprised no But it it does not have options, such as sanctions against vul. Soborna 44 one. The results included a new wave of capital flight, Russia, switching off SWIFT for it, consolidation of the VOLODYMYR-VOLYNSKIY vul. Kovelska 6 KYIV five more quarters of economic decline (and -0.6% of EU to support Ukraine’s interests. So this is a sad alter- KHMELNYTSKYI vul. Proskurivska 2 vul. Lysenka 3A real GDP and two lost years), and debt restructuring native, if it replaces the West rather than contributes to vul. Khreshchatyk 46 which will be followed by the inevitable payments on its actions. vul. Spaska 5 KHARKIV the debts. The first time the economy returned to per- Finally, the factor of Ukrainians. Kolomoiskiy said Povitroflotskiy prospekt 33/2 vul. Sumska 3 manent growth was in mid-2017, and the population is that they have elected Zelenskiy because they did not TERNOPIL vul. Lva Toloho 1 still shrinking. want the cooperation with the IMF they had under Po- vul. Valova 5/9 Boulevard Lesi Ukrayinky 24 VINNYTSIA Prospekt Mykoly Bazhana 16D roshenko. But where would Ukraine’s economy be with- vul. Soborna 89 vul. Vadyma Hetmana 1 out the help of the IMF and other donors in the past five THE EXPERIENCE OF SOUTH AMERICAN COUNTRIES PROVES OTHERWISE: vul. Vasylkivska 34 SLOVIANSK years? The choice of Ukrainians signals that they do want vul. Yevhena Sveriuka 2A DNIPRO vul. Vasylivska 27 UNLESS CONTROLLED BY LENDERS OR INVESTORS, THEY FACE HUGE to live better than they lived under Poroshenko, that they vul. Andriy Malyshko, 2d Prospekt Dmitry (9am-7pm) PROBLEMS WITH SELF-CONTROL, RESULTING IN A SURGE OF CORRUPTION want new opportunities. But default and the economic vul. Sichovykh Striltsiv 103-105 Yavornytsky, 55 crisis it triggers guarantee something very different: the Vyshneve AND NEPOTISM IVANO-FRANKIVSK vul. Sviatoshynska 27-G loss of Ukraine’s moderate accomplishments of the past vul. Nezalezhnoi 31 years. Ukrainians did not vote for that. vul. Hetmana Mazepy, 3 ZAPORIZHZHIA Greece’s default lessons are quite simple. Firstly, Announcing default would have more side effects. Ko- Prospe Sobornyi 137 a refusal to pay your debt does not mean that the debt lomoiskiy presents it as a more sovereign choice, imply- LVIV prospekt Svobody 7 vanishes. You will have to pay sooner or later. Secondly, ing that Ukraine should act as befits it. The experience Square Mickiewicz 1 default means the loss of trust. It can be lost in a min- of South American countries proves otherwise: unless vul. Volodymyr Vynnychenko 6 ute and take decades to restore. Short-term benefits of controlled by lenders or investors, they face huge prob- vul. Halytska 9 default are questionable and long-term side effects are lems with self-control, resulting in a surge of corrup- vul. Koiushka 5 (entrance catastrophic. Thirdly, capital flight from Greece would tion and nepotism. Some conditions of the IMF program from Sichovykh Striltsiv 17) have been far quicker and ruinous for the economy, had it for Ukraine were indeed tough. But they have taught LVIV, SOKILNYKY vul. Stryiska, 30 King Cross Leopolis mall not gone through a six-year crisis before. Ukraine is not Ukrainian politicians to be more disciplined, to steal (2nd floor, space 235) Greece. It has well recovered from the 2014-2015 crisis. less and to be more pragmatic in the way they use budget Ukraine can pay its debt back and it has many things to funds. Without external control, corruption will thrive lose. in Ukraine once again and the people will hardly benefit Another country Kolomoiskiy points to is Argentina from that. So the entire crew of corruptioners who have which has declared default many times and is still ok, so been pushed away from milking Ukraine in the past five Ukraine has arguably nothing to fear. Is this really so? years is applauding to Kolomoiskiy and looking forward Who in their sane mind can dream of a path of one of the to new “accomplishments”. The problem is that a corrupt most developed countries in the early 20th century that country can never defend itself properly in war. has tumbled to ranking 64th in terms of GDP per capita Ukraine would lose in a default. Why is Kolomoiskiy today? Ukraine has been degrading for over 25 years, promoting it then? His logic is simple.
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