Project AIR FORCE DETERRENCE THEORY AND CHINESE BEHAVIOR Abram N. Shulsky R The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-96-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Shulsky, Abram N. Deterrence theory and Chinese behavior / Abram N. Shulsky. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. MR-1161-AF ISBN 0-8330-2853-7 1. United States—Military policy. 2. Deterrence (Strategy) 3. China—Military policy. 4. United States—Military relations—China. 5. China—Military relations— United States. 6. China—History, Military—20th century. I. Title. UA23 .S496 2000 355'.03109730951—dc21 00-042508 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. © Copyright 2000 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2000 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet:
[email protected] PREFACE China is emerging as a major global and regional player that will likely play a part in U.S.