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Cognitive and Emotional Bias in Real Estate Investment Pau Blasi

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Cognitive and Emotional Bias in Real Estate Investment Pau Blasi Cognitive and Emotional Bias in Real Estate Investment Pau Blasi To cite this version: Pau Blasi. Cognitive and Emotional Bias in Real Estate Investment. Business administration. Uni- versité Paris sciences et lettres, 2018. English. NNT : 2018PSLED041. tel-02064265 HAL Id: tel-02064265 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-02064265 Submitted on 11 Mar 2019 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Cette thèse a été réalisée dans le cadre d’une Convention Industrielle de Formation par la Recherche (CIFRE) entre l’Université Paris Dauphine et la société BNP Paribas Real Estate. Les points de vue et opinions exprimés dans ce document sont ceux de l’auteur et ne reflètent pas nécessairement la position de l’Université Paris Dauphine et de BNP Paribas Real Estate. This thesis was carried out through an Industrial Agreements for Training through Research (CIFRE) between Paris Dauphine University and BNP Paribas Real Estate. The views and opinions expressed in this document are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Paris Dauphine University and BNP Paribas Real Estate. 1 2 Remerciements 3 Je tiens tout d’abord à remercier les professeurs Sofiane ABOURA, Alain COEN, Jaume ROIG HERNANDO, Fabrice LARCENEUX et Richard MALLE qui m’ont fait l’honneur de constituer le jury de thèse. Je les remercie vivement pour leur participation et pour le temps consacré à l’évaluation de ce travail. Je remercie plus particulièrement Sofiane ABOURA et Alain COEN d’avoir accepté d’être rapporteurs de ma thèse. Leur lecture attentive et remarques pertinentes serviront à améliorer ce travail de recherche. Je tiens aussi à exprimer ma reconnaissance à mon directeur de thèse, Arnaud SIMON, qui a accepté de m’accompagner sur ce chemin. Il m’a aidé et guidé quand j’en avais besoin. Je le remercie pour sa collaboration et son soutien. Il a été un maître pour moi. Mes remerciements vont aussi tout particulièrement à Christophe PINEAU. Grâce à lui, j’ai travaillé pendant près de quatre ans en tant qu’analyste d’investissement au sein de l’équipe de recherche internationale de BNP Paribas Real Estate. Je me suis également inscrit pour faire une thèse à l’Université Paris Dauphine. Je remercie égale- ment tous mes collègues de BNP Paribas Real Estate. En particulier Maurizio GRILLI car il a travaillé en étroite collaboration avec moi pendant ma thèse. Aussi l’équipe inter- nationale, l’équipe française, et les équipes de recherche des autres pays. Egalement les équipes de gestion des investissements, de gestion d’actifs, de valorisation, de transaction, de conformité, de marketing et de communication. Ils m’ont toujours accueilli avec un sourire et étaient prêts à m’aider quand j’en avais besoin. Sans oublier mes collègues de l’Université Paris Dauphine, qui m’ont également accompagné dans ce voyage. Nous avons partagés ensemble des moments très sympathiques et fructueux. Je tiens également à remercier tous les intervieweurs anonymes qui ont participé à cette recherche. Sans eux les résultats obtenus dans cette thèse n’auraient jamais vu le jour. Je remercie l’European Real Estate Society (ERES), la Society of Property Researchers (SPR) et l’Urban Land Institute (ULI) d’avoir envoyé le questionnaire à leurs membres. Enfin, je remercie toutes les personnes qui m’ont aidé à trouver des participants pour répondre au questionnaire. Leur collaboration inconditionnelle a été essentielle pour obtenir les résultats de la thèse. Ma dernière pensée s’adresse à mes amis les plus proches, et ma famille. A titre plus personnel, je dédie ce travail à ma mère Gloria et ma compagne Nadia, pour leur encouragement et soutien permanent. Vous tous m’avez rendu ces années de recherche plus agréables. 4 Acknowledgments 5 First of all, I would like to thank Professors Sofiane Aboura, Alain Coen, Jaume Roig Hernando, Fabrice Larceneux and Richard Malle who did me the honour of consti- tuting the thesis jury. I thank them very much for their participation and for the time spent evaluating this work. I especially thank Sofiane Aboura and Alain Coen for having accepted to be rapporteurs of my thesis. Their careful reading and pertinent remarks will serve to improve this research work. I would also like to express my gratitude to my PhD supervisor, Arnaud Simon, who has accepted to accompany me on this path. He helped me and guided me when I needed it. I thank him for his collaboration and support. He was a master to me. My thanks also go to Christophe PINEAU. Thanks to him, I worked for almost four years as an investment analyst for BNP Paribas Real Estate in the international research team. I also enrolled in a PhD at Paris Dauphine University. I also thank all my colleagues at BNP Paribas Real Estate. In particular, Maurizio GRILLI because he worked closely with me during my thesis. I also thank the international team, the French team, and the rest of the research teams from other countries. Also the Investment Management Team, Asset Management, Valuation, Transaction, Compliance, Marketing and Communication teams. They always greeted me with a smile, and they were ready to help me when I needed it. Without forgetting my colleagues from Paris Dauphine University, who also accompanied me on this trip. We shared very nice and successful moments together. I would also like to thank all the anonymous interviewers who participated in this research. Without them, the results obtained in this thesis would never have seen the light of day. I thank the European Real Estate Society (ERES), the Society of Property Researchers (SPR) and the Urban Land Institute (ULI) for sending the questionnaire to their members. Finally, I thank all the people who helped me find participants for answering the questionnaire. Their unconditional collaboration was essential to obtain the results of the thesis. My last thought is to my closest friends and my family. On a more personal note, I dedicate this work to my mother Gloria and my companion Nadia, for their encouragement and permanent support. All of you have made these years of research more enjoyable. 6 Résumé L’objectif principal de cette thèse est d’analyser comment les biais cognitifs et émotionnels affectent les décisions des investisseurs lorsqu’ils achètent ou vendent des im- meubles de bureaux. Pour atteindre cet objectif, cette recherche adopte, dans un premier temps, une démarche qualitative. Les entretiens semi-structurés permettent de détecter et d’analyser les biais les plus importants qui apparaissent au cours de la transaction. Parmi les différents biais décelés « l’oubli de la fréquence de base » a été sélectionné. Ce biais peut apparaître avant l’acquisition lorsque les investisseurs évaluent la performance attendue d’un immeuble. Une analyse quantitative suit pour développer une échelle qui mesure l’effet du biais. Les résultats ont montré que l’incertitude conduit certains in- vestisseurs à supposer que le rendement qu’ils obtiendront à la fin de leur investissement sera égal à celui du rendement initial. En d’autres termes, certains investisseurs estiment que les conditions du marché resteront les mêmes qu’aujourd’hui. Mots clés : Biais Cognitifs, Biais Emotionnels, Investissement Immobilier, Recherche Qualitative, Recherche Quantitative, Biais d’Oubli de la Fréquence de Base, Echelle de Mesure 7 8 Abstract The main objective of this thesis is to analyse how cognitive and emotional biases affect investor decisions when buying or selling office buildings. To meet this aim, this research embarks on a qualitative research. Semi-structured interviews permit to detect and analyse the most important biases that appear in the transactions. Among the different biases discovered, the "base-rate fallacy" was selected. This bias may appear before the acquisition when investors evaluate the expected performance of a building. A quantitative analysis follows to develop a scale that tries to measure the effect of the bias. The results showed that uncertainty leads some investors to assume that the yield they will obtain at the end of their investment will be equal to that of the initial yield. In other words, some investors believe that market conditions will remain the same as today. Keywords: Cognitive Bias, Emotional Bias, Real Estate Investment, Qualitative Re- search, Quantitative Research, Base-Rate Fallacy, Scale of Measurement 9 «Il n’y a pas de maîtrise à la fois plus grande et plus humble que celle que l’on exerce sur soi. » Léonard de Vinci "One can have no smaller or greater mastery than mastery of oneself." Leonard da Vinci 10 Contents Remerciements 3 Acknowledgments 5 Résumé 7 Abstract 9 Introduction 17 Le Marché des Bureaux : Chiffres Clés ...................... 18 Questions Générales de Recherche ......................... 19 Objectifs de Recherche ............................... 21 Introduction 25 The Office Market: Key Figures .......................... 26 General Research Questions ............................ 27 Research Objectives ................................ 29 I Property Investment Theory. Understanding the Grounds of How Investors Think, Decide, and Behave 31 1 Some Important Facts about Property Investment 33 1.1 Main concepts in the Commercial Investment Market ........... 34 1.1.1 The Components of the Total Return ................ 34 1.1.2 The Risk Premium .......................... 36 1.1.3 The Net Present Value, and the Internal Rate of Return ..... 38 Definition of the Net Present Value ................. 38 Definition of the Internal Rate of Return .............. 40 Example A.
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