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Baltic Sectirity Latvian Institute of International Affairs & Frirsvarshrigskolan Fcirsvarshcigskolans Acta B7 BALTIC SECTIRITY LOOKING TOWARDS THE 21TH CENTTIRY Edited by cuNNAR ARtdUS & ATIS LEJIIyS ; CONTENTS UDK 327 (474) (063) Ba 406 7 GuNxan AntEus & Arrs Ls.rrNs Foreword 8 Bo Hulor Introduction 18 Torvo KT,AAR Estonia's Security Policy Priorities 33 Arrs Lp;rNs & Zeunta Ozor,rNa Latvia - The Middle Baltic State 53 Gnnuvttlms Vmrus At the Cross-Road of Alternatives: Lithuanian Cover design: Indulis Martinsons Security Policies in 1995 - 1997 79 Brnrel Hpunlrx Art6us, G., Lejigi, A., eds. _ Baltic Security: Looking Towards Actual and Future Danish Defence and Security the 21s^t century.- Riga: Latvian Instiiute of hiternatio_ Policy nal Affairs & Fcir.svarshcigskolan (Fdrsvarshcigskolans , lgg7. 224 p. Acta BZ) 101 Pprxe SToNPw Finnish Security Policy and Baltic Security in the Late 1990's ISSN 1402_7593 ISBN- 9984- S8g - 09-0 OLatvian Institute of 111 Axnr, Knonu in the Baltic Sea Region: International Affairs & Security Cooperation Fcjrsvarshdgskolan Germany as a Transatlantic and European Actor 126 Beeta Kolncx,e' The Prospects of Baltic Security: A Polish View Printed by "N.I.M.S." Ltd. Tallinas iela 81-20, Riga, LV - 1009, Latvia ; l:ll) Attt<npvMgsrrrcs (-'hanging Security Environment in the Baltic Sea liegion and Russia 152 INcmAR Or,DeoRc ABOUT THE AUTHORS No Love is Lost - Russia's Relations with the Baltic States 186 Darxe Br,orrRp Baltic Security in the centrar European Gunnar Artdus, Ph D, is Associate Professor of History at the context University of Gothenburg and Program Director at the Department (FHS/SI, 203 Lpwrs J. Cannarlplr,o of Strategic Studies of the Fdrsvarshdgskolan National & Nrco VnnroNGEN has Iectured at universities in Removing the Last Defence College) of Sweden. He Wall: Rethinking the Baltic Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Poland, and Sweden. Security Concept Daina Bleiere, Ph D, is a researcher at the Latvian Institute of In- ternational Affairs and the Institute of History of Latvia, University of Latvia. Lewis J. Carrafiello, Ph D Cand., is researcher at the Institute for European Policy and the Center for Peace Research, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven in Belgium. Bertel Heurlin, Ph D, is Research Director of the Danish Institute of International Affairs @UPD and has previously been Jean Monnet Professor of European Integration and Cooperation at the University ofCopenhagen. Bo Huldt, Ph D, is Director-in-Chief and professor of Security Policy and Strategy at the FHS/il. He has previously been Director of the International Institute of Strategic studies and of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs. Toivo Klaar, is Deputy Chief of Mission at Estonian Mission to NATO. He has studied at the universities of Toronto and Tartu. Beata Kolecka, Ph D Cand., is a head of division in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland Europe-West Department. Axel Krohn, Ph D, has taught at the National Defence College of Germany and at the University of Kiel. Atis Leji4i, M A, is Director of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs. I '=lr/i;rrlr' A/rs/r.s, l)h I), is section Head, European security (',rrIr',l, and Arms Irrsl.i1,rrt,. of Europe, RussianAcademy of Sciences. ()ltlborg', FOREWORD Ittl;ttt:rt' M A, is senior Researcher at the Defence Research l,lril rrl rl islr rrrcnt of' Sweden ( FOA. Zttrtt'ltr ozoli7a, Ph D, is Associate professor at the university of This book is essentially a product of Latvian-Swedish co-operation. l,rrt,viir, Department of Political science and a Research Fellow at the Or more specifrcally: of cooperation between t}jle Latvijas Arpolitikas l,r r |v i an Institute of International Affairs. Instituts (I'AI, T1'e Latvian Institute of International Affairs), repre- I)ekka sivonen, Ph D, is Professor and Research Director of the sented by its director Atis Leji4i, Forsvarshdgskolans strategiska National Defence College of Finland. institution (FHS/il, The Department of Strategic Studies at the of Sweden), represented by the director of Nico vertongen, Ph D cand., is researcher at the Institute for National Defence College program. "security in the Baltic Sea region (BSS)," European Policy and the center for peace Research, Katholieke its research Universiteit Leuven in Belgium. Professor Gunnar Art6us. This cooperation has manifested and is manifesting itself in vari- Gediminas vitkus, Ph D, is Director of the Lithuanian European ous forms and ways. One major event was an international confer- Integration Studies Center. ence at Jurmala (near Riga) in June 14-16, 1997. The papers pre- sented and discussed at this conference provide - in slightly revised shape - the bulk of the contents of this book. Both the LAI and the FHS/SI and its BSS program are briefly described on the inside ofthe back-cover, and we see no need to add anything here to that presentation. Nor will we comment here on the theme of the book since this has been admirably done by Professor Bo Huldt, Director of the FHS/SL in his introduction to the book. However, we will not abstain here from expressing our gratitude to our principal co-workers in the organizing of the Jurmala conference and in the production of this book, namely Ms Signe Sole, assistant to Atis Leji4s, and Dr. Daina Bleiere, research fellow of the LAL A\d during the frnal stages of the book's delivery process, valuable assis- tance has been cheerfully given by Ms Eila Lindman, the new princi- pal assistant of the FHS/il. Stockholm and Riga in March, 1998. Gunnar Arhlus Atis Leji4s F Bo Huldt IN 1I<ODUCTION the Baltic cities, and the region was never quite closed. The Cold War, on the contrary, implied a full black out, the realization of a "continental system" beyond even the wildest dreams of Napoleon. Bo The Baltic Sea effectively divided East from West; also from a neu- Huldt tral Swedish perspective, the other side of the Baltic was a different world, and, above all, one different world. The end of the Cold War -fI,,. thus brought the realization, also to the Swedes, that there existed ll:rllrr.fir,:r region has emerged as a new component in the something which one had conveniently forgotten for some fifty years: lrrrrlrlrrrg f r1'rr .ew European security order. The cola war was a the Baltic peoples. ,lrrr'k r.l,r'riucle in Northern European history not least because it The changes since 1989 on the strategic map of the Baltic Sea lr'rkr'l,lr. unity of what had been for a very long time a region of region have been revolutionary. Germany has been re-unified, l'rrrl. irrrrl cultural exchange, with the Baltic sea brlnging the peoples Poland has re-emerged as an independent European actor of sub- Iogct,lrt:r. stance and even greater promise, the Baltic states have been All had certainly not been togetherness and harmony prior to the reclaimed Iike iand rising foom out of the sea, and the Soviet Union ( i.ld war. on the contrary, the region had been the scene of' bitter has ceased to exist or, perhaps rather, retreated into Russia, again .ivalries - and much bloodshed between great powers as well as smalr- the single largest European power but also the most problem ridden. er states. Three types of actors had dominated the stage. First, there From having held mastery over the Baltic Sea only a few years ago, had ,,Germany,, ,,Russia,,, been the permanent powers, i.e., an"il or Russia now maintains only what must be described as a rather tenu- perhaps better, "Germania" and "slavia," which in different shapes ous hold on the sea through the ex-clave of Kaliningrad and the had ruled the southern and eastern shores of the sea. second, there St Petersburg region. In the mid-8O's, almost 70 percent of all naval were the some time powers, i.e., Denmark during the middle ages, tonnage in the Baltic Sea was Soviet and Warsaw Pact; today, there 16th poland and early 17th centuries, in the late middle and early exists a triangular "balance" of sorts between the German, Swedish modern ages, and Sweden during the so cailed "swedish century,, and Russian fleets and, given the present lack of resources and the from the capture of Riga in 1621 to the end of the Great Nordic war low priority given to the Russian Baltic Fleet, Russia hardly looks r72L, in which at various times had held mastery in the Baltic the strongest ofthe three. region. The third category was made up of the so called maritime The Russian "bridgehead" is strategically a difficult one: Kali- powers of the west who had strategic and economic interests in the ningrad is exposed, with an open coast and with land communica- Baltic sea region and thus from time to time intervened in the local tions available only through Baltic and Belarussian territory. The power struggle to protect these interests and to prevent any one sin- Kronstadt-St Petersburg area, on the other hand, is located at the gle local power frorri overwhelming all the rest. Thus acted ihe Dutch very bottom of the Finnish Gulf far away from the Baltic Sea, also in the mid-1600's, - supporting first the swedes against the Danes, to some extent dependent on good neighbour relations. then the Danes against the swedes when the latter seemed inrent on The Baltic Sea is now also a NATO sea, something that wiil be making the Baltic a swedish lake. After the Dutch came in British, further underlined once Poland joins the Alliance. The NATO who sought through similar balancing policies first to cut down the Command structure is being changed; today, the Baltic Sea is the swedes to size and thereafter, over a rather a long time, tried to hold responsibility of both the central command and of the North back Russia and protect Russia's smaller neighbours, occasionally western command (for air and naval operations).
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