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Summary for England

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Summary for England Evidence for the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) Summary for England Author: Sustainability West Midlands Image: Angel of the North, Gateshead Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report: Summary for England 1 Summary of climate risks and opportunities for England The Independent Assessment used to help inform the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) assesses 61 risks and opportunities from climate change to England, including to business, infrastructure, housing, the natural environment, our health and risks from the impacts of climate change internationally. Risks categorised as “More action needed” and “Further investigation” are more urgent than “Watching brief” and “Sustain current action.” Of these 61 risks and opportunities, more action is needed in England now to address 34 of them, with sustaining current action only deemed appropriate in four cases. Of the 61, six issues are deemed to be both a risk and opportunity, four of which are associated with the natural environment and each of these require more action or further investigation. There are also eight opportunities that could arise from climate change in England, with half of these also related to the natural environment. In total, 23 risks from climate change in England have increased in urgency score since the previous CCRA five years ago; these are summarised at the start of each section of this report. Only one risk has decreased in urgency score since the previous CCRA. There are also some new risks that were not covered in CCRA2. When compared to the other UK nations, there is increasing evidence that risks from extreme heat are greater in England than elsewhere, especially in the south-east, affecting health, infrastructure and the natural environment. The potential for water scarcity and subsidence also appears to be a greater issue here, again with south-east England being at greatest risk. Flooding (coastal and inland), storms, lightning and high winds also play their part in the present and future climate related risks across the whole of England. In summary, risks in England that have a high future magnitude score and where more action is required now to address them, after considering any existing adaptation responses, include the following: • The impacts of climate change on the natural environment, including terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine species, forests and agriculture. • An increase in the range, quantities and consequences of pests, pathogens and invasive species, negatively affecting terrestrial, freshwater and marine priority habitats species, forestry and agriculture. • The risk of climate change impacts, especially more frequent flooding and coastal erosion, causing damage to our infrastructure services, including energy, transport, water and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). • A reduction in public water supplies due to increasing periods of water scarcity. • The impact of extreme temperatures, high winds and lightning on the transport network. • The impact of increasing high temperatures on people’s health and wellbeing and changes in household energy demand due to seasonal temperature changes. • Increased severity and frequency of flooding of homes, communities and businesses. • The viability of coastal communities and the impact on coastal businesses due to sea level rise, coastal flooding and erosion. • Disruption to the delivery of health and social care services due to a greater frequency of extreme weather. • Damage to our cultural heritage assets as a result of temperature, precipitation, groundwater and landscape changes. • Impacts internationally that may affect the UK, such as risks to food availability, safety and security, risks to international law and governance from climate change that will affect the UK, international trade routes, public health and the multiplication of risks across systems and geographies. The rest of this report outlines what the risks and opportunities are in England associated with climate change, their urgency scores, the evidence for this and the benefits for further adaptation action in the next five years. Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report: Summary for England 2 Contents 1. Introduction _______________________________________________________________ 6 2. Climate change in England __________________________________________________ 11 3. Summary of the risks and opportunities in England ______________________________ 14 4. Natural Environment and Natural Assets _______________________________________ 18 N1. Terrestrial species and habitats _________________________________________________________ 20 N2. Terrestrial species and habitats _________________________________________________________ 22 N3. Terrestrial species and habitats _________________________________________________________ 24 N4. Soils _______________________________________________________________________________ 25 N5. Natural carbon stores, carbon sequestration and GHG emissions ______________________________ 27 N6. Agricultural and forestry productivity _____________________________________________________ 29 N7. Agriculture __________________________________________________________________________ 31 N8. Forestry ____________________________________________________________________________ 33 N9. Agricultural and forestry productivity _____________________________________________________ 36 N10. Aquifers and agricultural land __________________________________________________________ 38 N11. Freshwater species and habitats ________________________________________________________ 39 N12. Freshwater species and habitats ________________________________________________________ 42 N13. Freshwater species and habitats ________________________________________________________ 43 N14. Marine species, habitats and fisheries ___________________________________________________ 45 N15. Marine species, habitats and fisheries ___________________________________________________ 47 N16. Marine species and habitats ___________________________________________________________ 48 N17. Coastal species and habitats ___________________________________________________________ 49 N18. Landscape character _________________________________________________________________ 53 Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report: Summary for England 3 5. Infrastructure _____________________________________________________________ 55 I1. Infrastructure networks (water, energy, transport, ICT) _______________________________________ 58 I2. Infrastructure services _________________________________________________________________ 61 I3. Infrastructure services _________________________________________________________________ 65 I4. Bridges and pipelines __________________________________________________________________ 67 I5. Transport networks____________________________________________________________________ 68 I6. Hydroelectric generation _______________________________________________________________ 69 I7. Subterranean and surface infrastructure ___________________________________________________ 70 I8. Public water supplies __________________________________________________________________ 71 I9. Energy generation _____________________________________________________________________ 74 I10. Energy _____________________________________________________________________________ 76 I11. Offshore infrastructure ________________________________________________________________ 79 I12. Transport ___________________________________________________________________________ 80 I13. Digital _____________________________________________________________________________ 84 6. Health, Communities and the Built Environment _________________________________ 85 H1. Health and wellbeing __________________________________________________________________ 87 H2. Health and wellbeing __________________________________________________________________ 91 H3. People, communities and buildings ______________________________________________________ 92 H4. Viability of coastal communities _________________________________________________________ 96 H5. Building fabric _______________________________________________________________________ 99 H6. Household energy demand ____________________________________________________________ 101 H7. Health and wellbeing _________________________________________________________________ 103 H8. Health ____________________________________________________________________________ 106 H9. Food safety and food security __________________________________________________________ 107 Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report: Summary for England 4 H10. Health ___________________________________________________________________________ 108 H11. Cultural heritage ___________________________________________________________________ 110 H12. Health and social care delivery ________________________________________________________ 113 H13. Delivery of education and prison services _______________________________________________ 116 7. Business and Industry _____________________________________________________ 120 B1. Flooding of business sites _____________________________________________________________ 122 B2. Coastal business locations and infrastructure ______________________________________________ 125 B3. Business production processes _________________________________________________________ 127 B4. Business access to finance, investment and
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