Estimating the Future Role and Success of the Istanbul Airport: a Regional Planning Perspective
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ESTIMATING THE FUTURE ROLE AND SUCCESS OF THE ISTANBUL AIRPORT: A REGIONAL PLANNING PERSPECTIVE A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY BARAN CAN KARADOĞAN IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN REGIONAL PLANNING IN CITY AND REGION PLANNING SEPTEMBER 2019 Approval of the thesis: ESTIMATING THE FUTURE ROLE AND SUCCESS OF THE ISTANBUL AIRPORT: A REGIONAL PLANNING PERSPECTIVE submitted by BARAN CAN KARADOĞAN in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Regional Planning in City and Region Planning Department, Middle East Technical University by, Prof. Dr. Halil Kalıpçılar Dean, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences Prof. Dr. H. Çağatay Keskinok Head of Department, City and Regional Planning Prof. Dr. Melih Pınarcıoğlu Supervisor, City and Regional Planning, METU Examining Committee Members: Prof. Dr. Serap Kayasü City and Regional Planning Dept., METU Prof. Dr. Melih Pınarcıoğlu City and Regional Planning, METU Assist. Prof. Dr. Meriç Gökdalay Department of Aviation Management, University of Turkish Aeronautical Association Date: 09.09.2019 I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Surname: Baran Can Karadoğan Signature: iv ABSTRACT ESTIMATING THE FUTURE ROLE AND SUCCESS OF THE ISTANBUL AIRPORT: A REGIONAL PLANNING PERSPECTIVE Karadoğan, Baran Can Master of Science, Regional Planning in City and Region Planning Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Melih Pınarcıoğlu September 2019, 197 pages Today, the aviation sector is considered as the driving force for the economies of countries, regions and cities and contributes not only to economic developments but also to social development. Every day, new air transport connections are being created all over the world and people's demand for air transport is growing. In order to get a share from the development of the aviation sector, which is a very important field in today's economies, countries all over the world are in harsh competition. Within the scope of this competition, countries want to create various advantages by developing relevant strategies. Within the framework of all the events and changes in the world, Turkey also carries out various actions to achieve their goals and develop some strategies for the aviation industry. Turkey has experienced quite quick and quite an advanced growth in the field of air transportation in the last 20 years. According to statistics of General Directorate of State Airports Authority, while 34 million passengers used air transportation in 2003 in Turkey, this amount has increased 6 times and nearly 211 million passengers used air transportation in 2018. Turkey is developing various strategies and implementing some actions in order to be more competitive in a rapidly evolving global aviation. The most important of these strategies can be considered as the new airport investment in Istanbul. This thesis mainly aims to develop predictions on the role of Istanbul Airport, the highest cost v investment in the history of the Republic, in the future and how it will play a role in the global aviation sector. Various quantitative and qualitative research methods have been used during the research and the future of Istanbul Airport has been evaluated by using the information obtained as a result of the workshops with the stakeholders. Keywords: Forecast, Istanbul Airport, Scenario Development, Transportation vi ÖZ İSTANBUL HAVALİMANI’NIN GELECEKTEKİ ROLÜNÜN VE BAŞARISININ TAHMİNİ: BÖLGE PLANLAMA PERSPEKTİFİ Karadoğan, Baran Can Yüksek Lisans, Bölge Planlama Tez Danışmanı: Prof. Dr. Melih Pınarcıoğlu Eylül 2019, 197 sayfa Havacılık sektörü günümüzde ülke, bölge ve kent ekonomileri için itici güç olarak kabul edilmekte ve yalnızca ekonomik açıdan değil sosyal açıdan da önemli gelişmelere katkı sağlamaktadır. Tüm dünya çapında her gün yeni hava ulaşım bağlantıları oluşmakta ve insanların havayolu taşımacılığına olan talebi artmaktadır. Günümüz ekonomilerinde oldukça önemli bir alan olan havacılık sektörünün gelişiminden pay alabilmek için tüm dünyadaki ülkeler sert bir rekabet içindedirler. Bu rekabet kapsamında ülkeler çeşitli stratejiler geliştirerek kendilerine çeşitli avantajlar yaratmak istemektedirler. Dünyada gerçekleşen tüm olaylar ve değişimler çerçevesinde Türkiye de havacılık sektörü için çeşitli stratejiler geliştirmekte ve hedeflerine ulaşabilmek için çeşitli eylemler gerçekleştirmektedir. Türkiyede havacılık sektörü son 20 yılda oldukça hızlı gelişmiş ve oldukça büyük bir büyüme yaşamıştır. Devlet Hava Meydanları istatistiklerine göre 2003 yılında tüm Türkiye genelinde 34 milyon yolcu taşınmışken 2018 yılında bu miktar 6 katına çıkarak yaklaşık 211 milyon seviyelerine ulaşmıştır. Türkiye hızla gelişen dünya havacılık sektöründe daha rekabetçi olabilmek adına çeşitli stratejiler geliştirmekte ve uygulamaktadır. Bu stratejilerden en önemli olanı İstanbul’a yapılan yeni havalimanı yatırımı olarak kabul edilebilir. Bu tez çalışması temel olarak Cumhuriyet tarihinin en yüksek bedelli yatırımı olan İstanbul Havalimanı’nın gelecekte küresel havacılık vii sektöründe nasıl bir rol oynayacağı, başarılı olup olamayacağı konuları üzerine tahminler geliştirmeyi hedeflemiştir. Araştırma yapılırken çeşitli nicel ve nitel araştırma yöntemleri kullanılmış ve sektör paydaşları ile yapılan çalıştaylar sonucu elde edilen bilgiler kullanılarak İstanbul Havalimanı’nın geleceği değerlendirilmiştir. Anahtar Kelimeler: İstanbul Havalimanı, Uzun Dönemli Tahmin, Senaryo viii In loving memory of my grandfathers; Sadettin ÇAKIR & Hayri KARADOĞAN ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First, I would like to express my very great appreciation to my supervisor Prof. Dr. Melih PINARCIOĞLU for his patient guidance, enthusiastic encouragement and constructive approach. I am grateful to him for the interest he has shown since the day I met him so that I could improve myself. I also owe special thanks to him for providing me the opportunity to work for “Air Transportation General Study” project at YTM-MATPUM where I achieved important gains for this thesis. I also thank to my honorable jury members; Prof. Dr. Serap KAYASÜ and Assist. Prof. Meriç GÖKDALAY for their valuable contributions to this thesis. I would also like to thank Prof. Dr. Yıldırım SALDIRANER for his support and wisdom. I also owe thanks to my all friends and colleagues for supporting me to complete this thesis. My special thanks go to my dear friend Duygu GÜLTEKİN TABAK who inspired me with her vision and encouraged me for this master’s programme. Finally, my deepest thanks and gratitude are extended to my dearest family; to my mother Pınar KARADOĞAN, to my father Necmi KARADOĞAN and to my beloved Tutku GÖKALP. I could never be the person who I am now without the presence of these precious people who always provide me full support in my entire life and always there for me. I am very proud and happy for being a part of this family and I hope you will accept this acknowledgement as an expression of my deepest gratitude. x TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................. v ÖZ ........................................................................................................................... vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................... x TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................... xi LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................... xiv LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................... xv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................ xviii CHAPTERS 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 1 1.1. Aim .................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Justification ....................................................................................................... 3 1.3. Methodology ..................................................................................................... 4 1.4. Content .............................................................................................................. 6 2. LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL BACKGROUND .................. 9 2.1. Air Transportation in the World ........................................................................ 9 2.1.1. Evaluation of Major Regions of the World in terms of Air Transportation and Economic Futures ........................................................................................ 12 2.1.1.1. Asia Pacific ........................................................................................ 12 2.1.1.2. Europe ................................................................................................ 19 2.1.1.3. USA and Latin America ..................................................................... 23 2.1.1.4. Africa.................................................................................................