Issue 21 Winter 2021 Toulouse School of Economics

Climate: The next threat Toulouse School of Economics www.tse-fr.eu 1 Esplanade de l’Université, [email protected] 31080 Toulouse Cedex 06 twitter@TSEinfo Editor’s Message Toulouse School of Economics Contents Economics for the Common Good

TSE faces 4. Grants, News Appointments, Books & Prizes the future & Events

Policymakers have rarely been more in need of good advice. With 6. ’s 10. Google’s infections resurging this winter, they tread a narrow and treacherous recovery innovation path between the precipice of the pandemic on one side, and an Interviews Makhtar Diop Hal Varian economic chasm on the other. As Victor Gay highlighted in the TSE Inaugural Lecture, the combination of these twin crises may leave scars that take many decades to heal.

In the long run, however, no challenge is greater or in more urgent 14. A Climate 20. The food 24. Do vehicle need of evidence-based action than that of global warming. The Climate: coalition and climate emission Covid-19 crisis has exposed our collective failure to recognise that the Jean Tirole puzzle standards work? health of our bodies, economy, and planet are deeply interconnected. Céline Bonnet Mathias Reynaert Yet it has also been a reminder that when a collective will exists, everything is possible. The next 18. The health 22. Europe bets of our planet on hydrogen TSE’s crisis response is testament to this spirit. Our researchers Christian Gollier, Experts panel Claude Crampes have adapted admirably, even under the latest lockdown: finding TSE Director & Stefan Ambec innovative ways to teach and inspire the economists of tomorrow, threat interacting with the public in lively debates, and maximizing the productivity benefits of collaborating remotely. We are proud of the success of regular webinars and our first online conferences. Difficult circumstances and growing enthusiasm for economic expertise have 26. Emmanuel inspired us to embrace new media and new audiences. Farhi Tribute In Jean Tirole I am deeply honored to be leading the climate team for President Macron’s commission charged with finding solutions to the challenges of the Covid-19 era. My own work benefits enormously from the breadth and depth of environmental research in Toulouse, which is Memoriam very much on display in this issue. Introduced by Jean Tirole’s call for a new climate coalition, our special dossier includes a warning by Claude Crampes and Stefan Ambec that Europe’s embrace of hydrogen is a risky bet. Following the Volkswagen testing scandal, Mathias Reynaert 30. TSE Inaugural asks if vehicle emissions standards really work; and Céline Bonnet Lecture 2020 discusses the challenge of changing our high-carbon eating habits. Experts Victor Gay We also cherish the memory of the late Emmanuel Farhi, a stellar example to economists everywhere. And as part of our commitment to engage with global decision-makers, we feature interviews with Makhtar Diop on his work as the World Bank’s Vice President for Infrastructure, and Google’s chief economist Hal Varian.

Wishing you good health in these difficult times. Biannual magazine www.tse-fr.eu Publication Director: With the help of Pictures: This magazine has been funded of the Toulouse School Christian Gollier Claire Navarro studiotchiz by a French government subsidy of Economics [email protected] James Nash fotolia managed by the Agence Nationale Managing Editor: istock de la Recherche under the framework 1, Esplanade Tél +33 (0) 5 67 73 27 68 Joël Echevarria Layout design unsplash of the investissements d’avenir de l’Université. Blackpaper.fr Mariana Cook programme reference 31000 Toulouse Editor in chief: ANR-17-EURE-0010. France Jennifer Stephenson 1000 printed magazine

Production Manager: ISSN: 2554-3253 Jean-Baptiste Grossetti

2 3 News & Events Toulouse School of Economics News & Events Economics for the Common Good

Appointments

European Heritage Days 2020 On May 29, the French President appointed TSE founder News Macron TSE opened its gates to the public for this year’s European Heritage Jean Tirole and former IMF chief economist Olivier Days. More than 300 visitors enjoyed a guided tour of our new invites TSE Blanchard to lead a special commission on ideas for building designed by Grafton Architects, winners of the 2020 Pritzker the world after Covid-19. The team of 26 international Prize. experts economists will focus on three major challenges: climate, to guide inequality and demography. TSE director Christian Gollier Pierre Dubois joins the The Journal of the European will lead efforts to respond to global warming. Economic Association as co-editor Covid-19 The commission will conclude its work with a report to be The TSE-UT1C professor will become co-editor starting January response published in 2021. 2021 of the presigious journal, covering IO, Health and Development economics. “I am honored and delighted to be part of this commission,” said Jean. “Unemployment, over- indebtedness and purchasing power are crucial TSE Public Webinar series concerns, but we also need an overall vision for the future of our society. Thinking with leading economists TSE held two public webinars, one in June and one in November on on how to respond concretely, credibly and effectively to the Covid-19 crisis. In June, Zohra Bouamra-Mechemache (TSE- these long-term challenges will be very exciting.“ INRAE) discussed the impact of the pandemic on food and climate, Christian Gollier discussed tackling the climate crisis during the pandemic. In November Victor Gay (TSE-IAST-UT1C) detailed the long term economic impact of Covid-19 while Astrid Hopfensitz (TSE- IAST-UT1C) insisted on the psychological side of the crisis. Report on EU-Mercosur trade deal delivered to French government To evaluate the impact of the EU-Mercosur trade deal on sustainable development, the Prime Minister commissioned a panel of experts Prizes TSE building receives the Equerre d’Argent 2020 chaired by Stefan Ambec, Director of the TSE Energy and Climate This architectural annual prize, organized by French magazine AMC, Center. Their report finds that opening up markets will bring limited rewards the best projects in France. trade benefits but increase deforestation and carbon emissions. “The EU missed an opportunity to use its negotiating power to obtain solid guarantees that meet the environmental, health and social TSE ranked best in Europe for economics concerns of its citizens,” said Stefan. His panel has recommended substantial amendments and better impact assessments. The Academic Ranking of World Universities, commonly known as the “Shanghai Ranking”, has named TSE as the top institution in economics in continental Europe and 22nd in the world.

Wilfried Sand-Zantman joins French gambling regulator TSE founder urges Toulouse The TSE-UT1C-ESSEC professor has been appointed as one of to embrace its youth the nine members of the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), an Jean Tirole recently led an independent commission charged with independent authority in charge of regulating gambling in France. It rethinking the economic future of the Toulouse area in the wake of aims to protect the vulnerable and prevent fraud. the Covid-19 crisis. Delivering its recommendations in September, he was cautiously optimistic given the city’s strengths including Digital Center director receives Antitrust Award the untapped potential of its young population, space industry and tourism sector. TSE’s Jacques Cremer, along with Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye and Heike Schweitzer, received the prize in the Soft Law and General Antitrust categories for ‘Competition Policy for the Digital Era’, a report written for the European Commission.

4 5 Interviews Toulouse School of Economics Africa’s recovery Economics for the Common Good

“With the COVID-19 recovery, now is the time to accelerate progress towards more sustainability and inclusion”

Makhtar Diop, World Bank Vice President for Infrastructure

Can you summarize your current Do you have examples of such Jointly organized by TSE and priorities within the World Bank’s financing? Makhtar Diop, World Bank Vice Infrastructure Department? President for Infrastructure, Suggested: We focus on developing Our goal is to fill what are known as countries, since this is our core the first annual Infra4Dev infrastructure gaps, and to do this we mission. We have seen in the power conference took place last must try to increase the level of public sector a number of investments in December in Toulouse. Here, investment in the infrastructure public-private partnership (PPP) and sector and, above all, improve the power purchase agreement (PPA) the Senegalese economist quality of public investment. It is also where the private sector commits to explores the links between clear that public resources are not sell electricity to distribution infrastructure, digitization and sufficient to make up the shortfall and companies that are very often public private sector investment is needed. and thus reduce the weight of their regulation, and reflects on the Finally, our goal is to assist countries CapEx (capital expenditure). Many implications for Africa’s future in their post-COVID-19 recovery power plants today, apart perhaps in a time of unprecedented process. The big question is: how from hydroelectricity, are private to get these actors to help rebuild sector-led projects. We see in crisis. better and maintain infrastructure? renewable energies such as solar We have a department in charge and wind power, many investments of this financing, which aims to set made by the private sector. Whether up instruments such as purchasing in Ghana, or Zambia, we are power parities and guarantees in now succeeding in having electricity order to attract both national and production provided by the private foreign financing. sector. This is even more interesting

6 7 Interviews Toulouse School of Economics Africa’s recovery Economics for the Common Good since these investments are in You were the World Bank’s Vice process these raw materials. “Solar electricity can renewable energy sources whose President for Africa, what is your The new challenge facing African costs have dropped significantly. analysis of the current developments countries is to bring down the be obtained at 3 cents Solar electricity can be obtained at 3 there? debt ratio, which has increased per kWh in Africa, and cents per kWh in Africa, and 8 cents significantly in recent years to meet per kWh if the cost of the batteries is We have a very diverse reality in investment needs. These needs are 8 cents per kWh if the considered. These rates are extremely Africa, with countries that have mainly related to infrastructure and cost of the batteries interesting for countries that had very experienced different growth rates, social sectors. The needs are not high costs when they imported their even if there has been a general in line with the rate of growth of is considered. These energy. slowdown in growth over the last fiscal revenues. They are growing rates are extremely three years with a slowdown in global relatively slowly in relation to GDP. We A second element is inter-city demand. It is important to know that are therefore faced with significant interesting for countries transport, especially with toll a significant part of African growth needs, which are accentuated by that had very high costs highways. We have the case of comes from the evolution of the cost the demographic weight in some when they imported - Diamniadio in Senegal where of raw materials, to be put in parallel countries. In addition, considerable the private sector has proposed with the growth in China which had investments are being made in the their energy” investments that are passed on a great impact on the demand for public and private sectors. African through a toll system. We provided these raw materials. countries have had to go into guarantees and helped structure debt very quickly in recent years. the project considering social and There is also a reflection on the It is therefore essential that they environmental issues. Currently, various regulations and governance take measures to control these a similar project is underway in related to this subject, as well as debts so that they are sustainable . There is also a lot of foreign the repercussions that this will have and balanced. These are the main investment in the mining sector, on these developing countries. challenges facing Africa in the especially for materials that make it Of course, these countries have coming years. possible to produce smartphones and different lifestyles, but these changes other digital products. will certainly offer them more The COVID-19 outbreak, however, Finally, we are committed to the significant opportunities for progress. has had major impacts on countries transformation of gas into electricity, We are seeing a diversification of with significant Independent Power as this is the least polluting sources of growth. It can be seen in Producers or toll road concession production method in many countries the digital sector, which is becoming programs. We can already observe, The conference with TSE mixed the This series of «Infra4Dev» We are therefore taking advantage to meet energy demand. We’re trying increasingly important and where globally, substantial disruptions over views of economists with those of conferences was initiated this year. of this conference, which brings to work with countries to move from access to the Internet and services the course of the year. This would decision-makers. What are your I strongly believe in this type of together several TSE specialists, but diesel or coal to natural gas and to provide other sources of growth. result in a more lasting downward impressions about it? initiative: when I was Vice President also European specialists, to try to hydroelectricity. Kenya is one of the interesting trend in revenues of operating PPP for Africa, I also set up a similar series. help them develop and further orient cases, with the M-Pesa microfinance projects. Countries vary in their In my opinion, this type of crossover I had conducted five conferences their work on developing countries. system, a real success story in the exposure to PPPs: the countries most is essential because the role of with academic institutions such as Finally, we have our report on global world of fintech. affected by these impacts are likely the World Bank is to create a link the Paris School of Economics, the development, which this year will to be those with the largest exposure between economic knowledge University of Berkeley, the University have data as its theme. There will be These diversifications in some to PPPs combined with the weakest and know-how on the one hand of Oxford and the University of a strong component on the digital sectors are affecting the evolution governance environments. A first and policy implementation on the California, where we addressed economy. We would therefore like to and prospects for growth. This order measure of PPP exposure is the other. For us, when we talk about several relevant and important themes take advantage of these meetings to implies the need to accelerate and cumulative unamortized investment regulations, one of the places in the on African development. benefit from the possible contribution improve investment in education in PPPs as a percentage of GDP. world that has the greatest reputation of TSE researchers to this global and the quality of education. Some This metric can be as high as 10- is TSE. Great professors such as Jean- report. African countries are making 15 percent of GDP for developing Jacques Laffont and Jean Tirole, who great efforts in terms of access countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have left their mark on the economics We also plan to systematize TSE “The role of the World to education, but more emphasis such as Ghana and Zambia. This is of regulation at the international “To support countries student exchanges with the World Bank is to create a link needs to be placed on quality. It is very much an upper bound, as it level, are part of the TSE DNA. It is during the Covid-19 Bank. I am thinking of doctoral therefore a matter of working on provides a crude approximation of therefore essential, in my opinion, students who will be able to spend between economic the quality of these teachings and the capital at risk if all PPPs were to that we can have this contact and crisis, we are focusing 3 to 6 months at the World Bank knowledge and investing more and more in the field invoke termination clauses, which benefit from the expertise that exists on short-term to write an article that will be useful know-how on the of science and technology systems. is an extreme scenario. To support at TSE in order to be able to refine emergency response to the Bank but also to their thesis. The latest estimate showed that only these countries during this time of our recommendations to countries We also want to encourage TSE one hand and policy 22% of African students graduated crisis, we are focusing on short-term and create this interface between measures as well as graduate students to apply to our implementation on the in computer science, and this affects emergency response measures as decision-makers and academics. The medium-term recovery- Young Professionals Program because the overall productivity of economies well as medium-term recovery- World Bank is precisely a privileged we will need a significant number of other.” and the capacity of countries to oriented measures. place for this. oriented measures” regulatory economists soon.

8 9 Interviews Toulouse School of Economics Google’s innovation Economics for the Common Good

Chief economist at Google “There’s going to be a since 2002, Hal Varian is shortage in the labor ‘We take also emeritus professor at forces, not a shortage of the University of California, demand but a shortage Google’s Berkeley, where he was of supply, primarily due founding dean of the School to the ageing of the of Information. TSE Mag population” innovation caught up with him to discuss the future of economics, for innovation, and what it’s like to granted’ work at the internet giant.

What are your current projects at How do you think AI will impact jobs? up with an idea you could investigate How do you think the European economy. Economists will be able to Google? it, write the code and release it in a regulation will shape innovation in AI get a 360 view of what is happening There will be a certain impact of AI on very short amount of time. If you’re and big data in the coming years? at the city level, national level and I’ve been working on a variety of jobs because there are now machines a little company and something global level. projects, many of which have to do that can substitute for humans in doesn’t work, nobody notices; but Google is a leader in developing tools with policy. I’ve been gathering facts a variety of ways. But a topic that if a big company makes a mistake, for dealing with large data and also Should we prioritize regulation of on questions such as the impact of has been left out of the discussion that is front-page news. So now you for working on machine learning and data or algorithms? tax or antitrust issues, because a lot is the coming impact on the supply have to get a product review, a legal artificial intelligence. There’s been of the discussions take place almost of labor due to ageing populations. review, a privacy review, and on and some tremendous breakthroughs in Like other tech companies, we at a philosophical level. I’m very much Almost every developed country on, to make sure all of these boxes the past 5-10 years. Things we take recognize that regulation is inevitable Hal Varian a fact-based person so I’m trying to has a looming demographic crisis. In are ticked and that slows things for granted like speech recognition because these big companies Chief economist at Google pull together the relevant data. the US, the labor force is growing at down. If you take 100,000 people and or image recognition, those were impact the economy. There is a lot half the rate of the population, and put them together – that’s the size big challenges recently and they’ve of potential value in collecting data European countries like France, Spain, of Google in terms of employees – become part of our daily lives. We’re even if it isn’t immediately analyzed Germany or Italy have dramatically there’s always going to be something going to continue to see these because you want to look at the slowed the growth of their going wrong so you have to spend kinds of developments over the history and use it to get an insight population. That means a reduction a lot of time making things run next decades. It’s not going to be a into what is going to happen in the of the labor forces. It’s just as bad in smoothly. That’s why we all think gigantic change in the ways we do future. Asia: the one-child policy in China fondly of the old days. things but it will impact our lives. had a huge impact on the labor force, If you don’t collect the data, there’s and countries like Japan, South Korea Take, for example, autonomous no way to do that. It’s only by are really in big trouble. So my view “There is a lot of vehicles. We would have self-driving collecting economic data that you is there’s not going to be a shortage potential value in cars already if it weren’t for humans, will be able to better manage the of demand but a shortage of labor because the difficulty isn’t driving economy. supply, primarily due to the ageing of collecting data even a car through a city, it’s predicting the population. if it isn’t immediately what these crazy human drivers and What is your impression of TSE? pedestrians and cyclists will be doing What could you tell us about the analyzed because you that raises a challenge. TSE is a fantastic place. I’ve known evolution of Google? want to look at the many of the people here since they How will big data and machine were graduate students and it’s really It was really a lot of fun being at history and use it to get learning impact economic research? gratifying to me the success that they Google in the early days because it an insight into what is had here in developing this research was a talented group of people that It’s very inexpensive to capture data center. It’s a highlight – not only of were working very hard. There was a going to happen in the right now and different data sources France or Europe, but of the world – lot of visible progress and if you came future” give you different viewpoints on the in terms of research and insights.

10 11 Climate: The next threat Economics for the Common Good Climate: The next threat Economics for the Common Good Climate: The next threat

P14-17 A Climate Coalition Jean Tirole

P18-19 Experts panel

P20-21 Climate & Food Céline Bonnet

P22-23 Europe bets on hydrogen Claude Crampes & Stefan Ambec

P24-25 Do vehicle emission standards work? Mathias Reynaert

12 13 Climate: The next threat Toulouse School of Economics A climate coalition Economics for the Common Good

“Every international agreement must satisfy ‘We need three criteria: economic efficiency, incentives to respect commitments, to build and fairness” a climate coalition’

Jean Tirole, Nobel Prize 2014

The Covid-19 vaccine has Every international agreement must commitment to use a rational policy demonstrated our societies’ capacity satisfy three criteria: economic to fight global warming. Local for radical, collective action to efficiency, incentives to respect carbon markets may someday address global challenges. But the commitments, and fairness. connect to form a more coherent development of vaccines responded Efficiency is possible only if all and efficient global market, even to a problem with immediate impact. countries apply the same carbon if ‘exchange rates’ will be a thorny The fight against global warming price. Adequate incentives require issue. is no less urgent, but its delayed penalties for free riders. Fairness, a impact has led to a large market concept defined differently by each Finally, the sharp decline in the price and political failure. We all have our stakeholder, should be achieved of solar energy allows us to glimpse part to play, says TSE founder Jean through lump-sum transfers. The economic solutions to the problem Tirole, in urging the international strategy of voluntary pledges to of emissions in African and other community to prevent global reduce emissions is another example developing and emerging countries. warming from inflicting lasting of countries postponing a binding But all this will not be enough. damage on future generations. commitment on emissions to a later So how can we build on these Drawing on his book ‘Economics date. dynamics? for the Common Good’, he maps a common-sense path to putting Glimmers of hope Although it is important to maintain earlier negotiations back on track. a global dialogue, the UN process However, we should not fail to has shown predictable limits. Despite the accumulation of mention reasons for optimism. First, Negotiations between 195 nations scientific evidence that human public awareness of the problem are incredibly complex. We need to actions play an important role in has grown in recent years, even create a “coalition for the climate” global warming, international action if the current pandemic may put that brings together, from the has been disappointing. The Paris environmental considerations on the outset, the major polluters, present agreement failed to create an back burner for a while. In addition, and future. This could be the G20 international coalition for a carbon more than 40 countries, including or a more restricted group: in price in proportion to its social cost. some of the most important (the 2012, the five biggest polluters- It further failed to address the world US, China, Europe) have created Europe, the US, China, Russia, and shortage of green R&D (only 4% of tradable emissions permit markets. India- represented 65 percent of our R&D focuses on global warming). Although they have generous worldwide emissions. The members In sum, it doesn’t not take the free- ceilings and very low carbon prices of this coalition could agree to pay rider problem seriously. as a result, they demonstrate a for each ton of carbon emitted.

14 15 Climate: The next threat Toulouse School of Economics A climate coalition Economics for the Common Good

“Let us substantially increase green R&D efforts, by creating In 2012 Contribution of each for example a country to cumulative 24% Rest of the world European ARPA-E.“ global emissions since 1900 4% India 6% Japan Source: Chair of climate 8% Russia economics, founded on the World Resources 11% China Institute’s CAIT database.

24% European Union

27% United States

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

At first, no attempt would be the environment, because the future 3. We also have to reach an made to involve all 195 countries growth of emissions will come from agreement on an independent in the global negotiation, but they emerging and poorer countries. monitoring infrastructure to would be urged to join in. Coalition Underpricing carbon in these measure and supervise emissions in members would put pressure on the countries will not limit warming signatory countries, with an agreed WTO, and countries that refused to a 2°C increase: high prices for governance mechanism. to enter the coalition would be carbon in developed countries taxed at borders. The WTO would will encourage the offshoring of 4. Finally, let us confront head- be a stakeholder on the basis production facilities that emit on the question of equity. This that non-participants are guilty of greenhouse gases to countries with is a major issue, but burying it environmental dumping; to avoid low carbon prices, nullifying efforts in discussions devoted to other undue protectionism by individual made in wealthy countries. subjects does not make the countries, it would contribute to the task any easier. There must be a definition of punitive import duties. 2. Let us substantially increase negotiating mechanism that, after green R&D efforts, by creating for the acceptance of a single price for What can we do? example a European ARPA-E. And let carbon, focuses on this question. us provide this entity with a proper Today, it is pointless to try to obtain Simply put, we need to get back on governance so as to avoid a failed ambitious promises for green funds the path of common sense. industrial policy. from developed countries without that leading to a mechanism capable 1. The first priority of future “Local carbon markets of achieving climate objectives. negotiations ought to be an Green financial assistance could agreement in principle to establish may someday connect take the form of financial transfers a universal carbon price compatible to form a more or, if there is a world market for with the objective of no more than emissions permits, of a generous a 1,5°C increase in average global coherent and efficient allocation of permits to developing temperatures. Proposals seeking global market, even if countries. carbon prices differentiated on the basis of country not only open a ‘exchange rates’ will be There is no other way forward. Pandora’s box, they are not good for a thorny issue”

16 17 Climate:Climate: The The next next threat threat EconomicsEconomics for for the the Common Common Good Good Experts panel Economics for the Common Good

Global warming threatens to have far more catastrophic effects than The health Covid-19. Have we learned any lessons from this pandemic to stave off environmental collapse? Will of our planet 2020 be the year the world began to fight back? We asked some leading thinkers for their perspectives.

“The decline in biodiversity may partly explain the resurgence of zoonotic diseases over the past 30 “The short-run effects of Covid-19 years, but global warming seems to on global warming are really small “The pandemic reminds us that “For Covid-19 as for global warming: have no direct link with the current potatoes; what matters is how this we are all dependent on the earth’s my efforts protect you, and your pandemic. However, the pandemic crisis will affect global warming ecosystem. Global warming will alter efforts protect me. In this world of could seriously complicate the policy. On the positive end, the this ecosystem by fostering the externalities, the equilibrium consists fight against global warming. The Covid-19 crisis has made us more occurrence of extreme events with in waiting for others to make the economic crisis caused by the health aware of our vulnerabilities (together similar economic and health impacts. effort, but nothing happens! Private situation requires us to deal with with other climate disasters this It is up to us to act to limit future interests are therefore not aligned short-term emergencies that could year...). On the negative end, strained climate crises. The experience of with the common good, and be at odds with the need for long- governments and households might “Covid-19 is a historic opportunity lockdown has shown that there are “Covid-19 emphasizes the need laissez-faire leads to catastrophe. term limitation of global warming. In find it less compelling to spend to initiate the structural solutions for reducing our carbon for well-designed accountabilities Restricting our freedoms has been this context, governments have no substantial resources on fighting transformations of society and footprint. The pandemic is also to balance protection and the the only solution to manage the choice but to seek a way to combine global warming, taking more short- economy that are essential to reach testing our resilience to changes economy. The lesson applies to current health crisis, but we can do ecological and productivity benefits. sighted decisions. The effects the goal of zero net emissions. in our ecosystem. It demonstrates climate policy, where existing better at solving the climate crisis For the cohesion of our societies as of limiting investment in cleaner Even if, in the midst of the crisis, that we need to put in place instruments have high hidden costs, without resorting to the extremes well as the future of the planet, it is technologies now could be long- the greatest desire of many people public policies to protect the most even though emissions pricing can of ‘degrowth’. The key is a price for essential that they succeed in doing lasting, so it is something to keep an is for everything to return to life as vulnerable.” be fair if the right recipe is used.” carbon.” so.” eye on and prevent.” before.”

Stefan Ambec, Director of TSE Dominique Bureau, Representative Christian Gollier, Director of TSE, Thierry Pech, Managing Director Mar Reguant, energy economist Katheline Schubert, environmental Energy and Climate Center for the Economic Council for author of ‘Le climat après la fin du of Terra Nova, Co-Chairman of (Northwestern University) economist (Paris School of Sustainable Development (CEDD) mois’ the Governance Committee of the Economics) Citizens’ Convention on Climate

18 19 Climate: The next threat Economics for the Common Good Climate & Food Economics for the Common Good

This avoids any problem of measuring the different types The food of pollution at farm level (carbon impact, eutrophication, acidification, land use, water use, and loss of biodiversity). It also prevents unregulated imports from gaining an and climate unfair advantage over domestic production. “We need to There are three different types of regulatory instruments: fiscal policies, informational and educational tools, and puzzle behavioral instruments such as nudges. Fiscal policies are a particular focus of my research. I have consume less meat shown that a high level of carbon tax (200€/tonne of CO² equivalent) on animal products would imply an increase in the price of animal products by 7% to 40%, depending on the type and the piece of meat. This price increase Céline Bonnet would allow a 6% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions TSE economist and Director of Research at France’s from the purchase of animal products. Fiscal policies will to help the climate” Agriculture and Environment Research Institute (INRAE) therefore not be sufficient to achieve European targets of a 30% reduction in 2030 compared to 2005. They will have to be combined with other tools.

Information and education policies can reduce the asymmetry of information between producers and Our high-carbon eating habits have damaged consumers on product quality, farming conditions and the environment and now threaten our future. environmental impact. However, consumers must be Encouraging more sustainable practices, from prepared to pay for these attributes of the product. Economic research shows that quality is an important the farm to the kitchen table, will require a criterion for consumers, and some are willing to pay more regulatory recipe with multiple ingredients, for it, but environmental concerns are given much less says TSE economist Céline Bonnet. But consideration. Studies so far show that it is difficult to change eating habits, especially regarding meat which is consumers may find it hard to swallow. perceived as a normal and necessary consumer good and part of the norm of traditional food. Food consumption is responsible for between 15% and 28% of Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions. Beef is the biggest culprit, with higher emissions than pork or “Fiscal policies must be combined with chicken meat. Extensive production systems can also other tools to achieve European targets generate higher greenhouse gas emissions per unit of production, although grazing helps to sequester carbon. of a 30% reduction in emissions linked to The consumption of animal products has implications animal products by 2030” for land and water use: producing animal feed uses 35% of land resources and 20% of drinking water resources. Livestock farming has other indirect effects on the Behavioral instruments make it possible to change environment, including soil degradation, air, water and soil consumption habits and norms gradually. In France, the pollution, loss of biodiversity, and deforestation. Green Monday initiative suggests we avoid meat or fish on the first day of the week, encouraging a simple and The standard approach in economics recommends gradual transition to meals that have less impact on regulation at the level of the polluter, based on the the environment. Experiments have also shown that if “polluter pays” principle. However, research shows that it vegetarian options are placed first on restaurant menus, would be simpler, more efficient, and fairer for the food they are more likely to be chosen. industry to regulate consumption rather than production. Reducing meat consumption is one of the major “Research shows that it would be challenges for developed countries in the fight against global warming. Public authorities will have to improve simpler, more efficient, and fairer for the regulation while supporting all actors in the sector to shift food industry to regulate consumption towards more environmentally friendly practices. Solving the problem will not be easy: many measures will have to rather than production” be combined to produce significant effects.

20 21 Climate: The next threat Toulouse School of Economics Europe bets on hydrogen Economics for the Common Good

European governments are “Green hydrogen optimists point to the cost of risking billions of euros on electrolyzers, which has fallen by 60% over the Europe bets a bet that hydrogen will past decade. The European Commission predicts gradually become a «clean, that economies of scale will cut the cost by a safe and affordable» energy further 50% by 2030” on hydrogen carrier. But this may be wishful thinking, say TSE energy Claude Crampes experts Claude Crampes and (TSE-UT1C) Stefan Ambec, unless there and Stefan Ambec is a significant decline in (TSE-INRAE) production and distribution costs.

The energy scene’s latest star is Counting the costs Hydrogen vs batteries vehicles is the speed of recharging. unquestionably hydrogen. In June, The disadvantage is the much greater Germany promised to invest €9 More than 90% of industrial Storage: To make electricity/ volume and weight of the tank, billion in hydrogen technologies, hydrogen is currently produced hydrogen double conversion compared to gasoline and diesel. overshadowing the 2018 French by chemical extraction of fossil profitable, high-price sales and low- plan and its €100 million per year. hydrocarbons, thus emitting price purchases are needed to cover High stakes In July, the European Commission greenhouse gases. Hydrogen can installation and maintenance costs. announced its strategy to produce 1 also be obtained by electrolysis of On a daily cycle, it can be profitable Electrolyzers are one thing, their million tons of “renewable hydrogen“ water, but the cleanliness of this to meet high peaks in the morning use of green electricity is another. by 2024 by increasing the existing process depends on the energy and evening. But longer-term The above plans seem to overlook 1GW fleet of electrolyzers, mainly used. storage in tanks is where hydrogen the necessary investments in powered by coal or natural gas, can outperform batteries as part of wind and solar power to separate to at least 6GW using renewable Hydrogen has a wide range of uses the solutions required for a 100% hydrogen and oxygen, in storage energies. From 2024 to 2030, its but distribution costs are high. It renewable electricity mix. and distribution, and in conversion target is 10 million tons with 40GW of corrodes alloys, which can lead to equipment at consumption capacity. The 2020 French recovery catastrophic failures. It is very bulky Transport:The windiest or sunniest points. In France, the supply of plan (Relance France) will invest €2 in its gaseous state and has very places are not necessarily the most nuclear energy to electrolyzers is billion in the hydrogen sector over little energy power, so it has to be populated. Hydrogen and hydrogen- a decarbonated solution, although the next two years, and €7 billion compressed or liquefied (at -252°C), based fuels could make it possible certainly not ‘green’. But in the long by 2030. Demand will be supported then distributed and retransformed to transport renewable energy over term, the multiplication of renewable by guaranteed repurchase prices into usable energy. The efficiency of thousands of kilometers between production units will create tensions similar to those enjoyed by wind and converting electricity to hydrogen production locations (with low over the occupation of space, both solar producers, a mechanism that and back to electricity is very low: prices) and consumption locations on land and offshore. has proven costly but effective for today, it takes almost 5kWh injected (with high prices). But again, the After supporting renewable energies developing production facilities and to recover 1kWh. costs of installing and maintaining and electric cars, Germany and reducing the cost of these energy infrastructure, together with losses France are betting on hydrogen sources. Renewable hydrogen (2.5-5.5€/kg) from transmission and double to reconcile decarbonization and is currently not competitive with conversion, are higher than those of technical progress. This is a costly and These programs have several hydrogen produced using fossil high-voltage line construction. risky gamble. One of the gains would objectives: (i) Decarbonize production fuels (about 1.5€/kg, excluding the be technological leadership on an for industries such as oil refining and cost of CO2). Even adding carbon Fuel: Whether they use internal essential energy resource, provided fertilizer production that cannot do capture and sequestration, the combustion or an electric motor that guaranteed purchase prices do without hydrogen; (ii) Extend uses to latter comes to about 2€/kg. Green connected to a fuel cell, hydrogen not encourage the development of a transport, construction, electricity hydrogen optimists point to the cost engines produce energy and water low-cost sector outside Europe. But production and manufacturing; (iii) of electrolyzers, which has fallen by combining hydrogen with oxygen the climate emergency also requires Develop world leadership in the by 60% over the past decade. The from the air. The cleanliness of emerging countries to rapidly move sector. But won’t all these billions leak European Commission predicts that this conversion is ideal for urban away from fossil fuels, and therefore a through the holes in a new Danaïdes’ economies of scale will cut the cost transport. The big advantage of wide dissemination of decarbonated barrel? by a further 50% by 2030. hydrogen over «all-battery» electric technologies.

22 23 Climate: The next threat Toulouse School of Economics Do vehicle emission standards works? Economics for the Common Good

Official and on-road fuel consumption ratings and “Evaluating the L/100 Km % Dierence performance gap Do vehicle emission welfare impact of 8 60 Documents a sharp rise in this ‘performance gap’ coincident 50 with policy change. Vehicles emission standards is 7 not easy. It requires produced before 2007 show standards work? 40 a small, relatively stable consideration of the 6 performance gap. Vehicles political environment, 30 produced after that exhibit a 5 large and rising performance the enforcement of the 20 gap, so that the 2014 model- year vehicles have performance policy, and strategic 4 10 gaps above 50% on average. decisions by firms ” 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 The rise in the performance Release Year Ocial Ratings gap implies that around 65% On-roads Ratings of the gains in fuel economy % Dierence since the introduction of the policy, as measured by laboratory tests, are false.

Mathias Reynaert Today all major vehicle markets EU market, Mathias finds no evidence The effects of gaming a more stringent target. He finds With more enforcement, firms have TSE-UT1C Research Faculty have adopted emission standards of price changes or downsizing in that attribute basing makes it much to adopt costlier technology, and to improve local air quality and/ response to the emission standard. What are the welfare effects of costlier to lower emission by changing this increases consumer prices. But or to regulate the production of Every year, automakers seem to make emission standards when compliance prices. Firms have to distort prices enforcement would have led to much greenhouse gases. In 2007, the vehicles more powerful, accelerate strategies are technology adoption more to reach the target because higher CO2 and other externality EU announced one of the world’s faster, and are larger, while emissions and gaming rather than price there are fewer vehicles to which savings, and the policy would have most demanding policies, obliging do not increase. changes? And why did the market firms can shift sales. If the regulation been welfare improving. automakers to cut air pollutants by respond in this way to the EU has a flat target without attribute 18%. Evaluating the welfare impact The same pattern of technological standard? basing, firms opt for changing prices This research demonstrates that of emission standards is not easy. It progress has been observed in the Because of technology adoption, together with some technology emission standards can be an requires consideration of the political US market. If automakers use these firms’ costs increase. The increase in adoption. The flat target reaches unwieldy policy tool. The European environment, the enforcement of advances to make more fuel-efficient costs reduces profits and consumer actual CO2 emission reductions of political environment led to failures the policy, and strategic decisions vehicles, firms should be able to surplus. Because of gaming, the 11%, much closer to the 18% target. in both the design and enforcement by firms. In a new paper ‘Abatement comply with emission standards. reductions in actual CO2 emissions of the emission standard that caused Strategies and the Cost of In the EU market, technological are just 5% instead of the 18% target. The introduction of attribute basing startling increases in strategic Environmental Regulation’, Mathias improvements appear to have The combined value of emission redistributes the incidence of the gaming. discusses the following responses happened twice as fast after the savings and consumer and profit regulation between French, Italian, that firms may adopt: announcement of the emission losses is negative. However, when and German producers. Mathias’ standard. However, this is the result of Mathias considers two additional simulations show that the positions In the wake of the 2015 • Pricing: Firms can change pricing to looking at official emission numbers non-targeted welfare effects, he finds of the national governments are Volkswagen testing scandal, shift the sales mix to vehicles with obtained from laboratory tests. the emission standard to have a small in line with the interests of their CO2 emissions below the target. positive impact as it also reduces domestic firms. The French and research by TSE’s Mathias • Do wnsizing: Firms can sell smaller Performance gap other externalities, such as local Italian governments were in favor of Reynaert suggests that and less powerful vehicles that are pollution, congestion, and accident regulation without attribute basing, emission standards can be more fuel efficient. In a forthcoming paper, Mathias and risk. while Germany lobbied for a steep “Vehicles produced a risky and unpredictable • Inno vation: Firms can improve the his co-author compare the laboratory attribute design. fuel efficiency of their vehicle fleet by ratings, which form the basis of policy, Political influence after 2007 exhibit policy tool. Investigating adopting technologies that improve with direct measures of on-road fuel Enforcement failure a large and rising strategic responses in the the combustion process. consumption. They construct a data What if the EU designed the performance gap, European car market, he finds • Gaming: Firms may reduce emissions set that tracks fuel consumption regulation differently? Using his Gaming is also a product of the during the regulator’s tests but not and kilometers travelled for a panel model to analyze alternative market political environment. A recent which implies that a growing divergence between necessarily on the road. Enforcement of more than 250,000 drivers for 12 outcomes, Mathias focuses on the evaluation by the European on-road fuel consumption of the emission standard plays a role years in the Netherlands. Using these standard’s attribute base and lack of Parliament blamed enforcement around 65% of the gains and laboratory results that in limiting gaming. data, they estimate the percentage enforcement. failures on car-producing member in fuel economy, as difference between the laboratory Attribute basing makes the emission states. A better test procedure suggests widespread ‘gaming’ Using a detailed panel of vehicle test and on-road performance for target dependent on vehicle weight. would mean that official and actual measured by laboratory of tests by manufacturers. attributes, prices, and sales for the each vehicle vintage and model. Firms selling lighter vehicles face emissions are more similar. tests, are false”

24 25 In memoriam Toulouse School of Economics Emmanuel Farhi Tribute Economics for the Common Good

One of France’s most beautiful Jean Tirole, minds has passed away, aged TSE honorary chairman 41. TSE founder Jean Tirole pays tribute to the brilliance of a long-time friend and close collaborator who dedicated his career to improving public policy.

Tenured at Harvard only five years while facts are important, they need analyzing the conditions of Keynesian When contemplating what he had after his PhD at MIT, Emmanuel a framework to become compelling. economics’ validity and its limits. His already achieved by the age of Farhi was the best macroeconomist, Theory further supplies the normative pathbreaking work made explicit 41, one cannot help experiencing and undoubtedly one of the best structure, that enables the move the microeconomic imperfections at a sense of huge scholarly loss, economists, of his generation. As to policy recommendations, which the root of macroeconomic failure, shuddering at the thought of the an economic theorist clearly on the were central to his career choice. so as to build a normative analysis missing ground-breaking work that Nobel track, he transformed the In this respect, as in many others, and thus formulate economic policy will never happen. I cannot do justice theory of taxation, macroeconomics, Emmanuel was the worthy heir of recommendations. to the breadth of his contributions, and international finance. the founders of the Econometric and I will content myself with a few Society: When in 1930 the likes remarks. Emmanuel was born on September of Irving Fischer, Ragnar Frisch, 8, 1978 in Paris. His father, André Joseph Schumpeter, Divisia, Roy, “His 2006 PhD In collaboration with Ricardo Farhi, was also an economist and his Hotelling or Keynes founded the Caballero and Pierre-Olivier mother, Danièle Debordeaux, society, they aimed at unifying conceptualized the Gourinchas, his 2006 PhD a social policy specialist. He was an theoretical and empirical approaches consequences of a conceptualized the consequences outstanding student. Ranked first and at “creating a society for the of global financial imbalances at the age of 16 in the French high advancement of economic theory shortage of safe assets generated by a shortage of safe school competition in physics, he in its relation to statistics and and the resulting assets in high-savings countries and could have become a physicist. The mathematics”. inflow of liquidity to the resulting inflow of liquidity to assistant of Cédric Villani, 2010 Fields Second, although Emmanuel loved the United States. This imbalance medalist, he could have become a mathematics and was as proficient the United States. was a harbinger of the 2008 crisis, top mathematician himself. at it as any in the profession, he was This imbalance was a so much so that it contributed I could equally have envisioned him not blinded by the tool. The elegance to the real estate boom and the a startupper or a top civil servant; of his models was at the service harbinger of the 2008 increase in securitization in the indeed, he long hesitated to continue of making ideas accessible, not of crisis” United States. With Ivan Werning, his career within the corps des Mines, demonstrating technical prowess. Emmanuel also laid down in his thesis the elite French civil-service corps. the foundations for a progressive But reading Paul Samuelson’s text The third permanent trait was doubt, taxation of wealth and capital in convinced him that economic ideas the DNA behind his research. He The fourth trait capturing order to build a reasoned debate are an alternative route to making was distrustful of fads, certainties Emmanuel’s research is patience. on a very sensitive subject. The this world a better place, and so he and preachers. He wanted to avoid In an interview given in April, and first sentence of the article says opted to study for an economics PhD the mistakes of the true believers. taking his recent work on value it all: «One of the biggest risks in at MIT. He was agnostic and let his science chains with David Baqaee as an life is the family you are born into.» take him wherever it would lead, illustration, he emphasized that good These authors have also improved His scientific approach is perhaps in unexpected directions. research requires a sustained effort our understanding of the dual role characterized by four traits. First, As a macroeconomist, his work (he invited the French journalist to a of taxation as a redistributive tool Emmanuel was unabashed about can probably be best described rendezvous in a few years); and that (from the richer to the poorer) and as In memoriam being a theorist. While he welcomed as Keynesian, although he did not communicating this research calls social insurance (from the active to the data revolution, he believed in really care about labels. Again, not for being transparent on empirical the unemployed, for example) made the power of ideas. And the realm of by falling into the trap of thought- uncertainty and candid about the necessary by the heterogeneity of Emmanuel Farhi ideas was his kingdom. He felt that, hindering prior beliefs, but by limits of our knowledge. individual trajectories.

26 27 In memoriam Toulouse School of Economics Emmanuel Farhi Tribute Economics for the Common Good

herd behavior forcing central banks could talk enthusiastically about his school, he was also committed to the to implement monetary rescues. own work without ever overselling scientific life of his country. He came Both studies called for macro- it, and only after listening to his to TSE several times a year, sharing prudential regulation, which has been colleagues’ own research. He was his passion for economics with our implemented over the past decade. very kind to students and junior young researchers and students. He We then analyzed the vicious circles faculty. Nicolas Werquin, a young sat for a long time on TSE’s scientific (or doom loops) created by the TSE researcher, accurately summed council and was a member of its mutual financial interdependence him up: “Emmanuel was a real role board of directors. He organized between banks and their sovereigns, model for me. I of course admired numerous conferences in France and a major current concern in Europe. his extraordinary intelligence and his in Europe, such as a very successful More recently, we have stressed the depth of mind whenever we talked one in September 2019 at the Central need for sound policies to deal with about research, but also the attention Bank of Luxembourg with the world’s the growth of shadow banking. In he paid to young researchers, his leading experts on the international recent months, we were working humility, generosity and kindness.” monetary system. on «monetary industrial policy», focusing on the strategies of Emmanuel never stayed in his Since the fatal day of July 23, I countries such as the United States ivory tower. Member of the French have received many messages and now China to attract savings and Government’s Conseil d’Analyse about Emmanuel from people from economic activity. Economique from 2010, he was different horizons- economists, involved in French intellectual life. former classmates, childhood Emmanuel felt that he had chosen a A few hours before his death, he friends, other friends, students. wonderful occupation; he loved his took part in a meeting of the French These messages emphasized that work, his colleagues and his students. president’s “commission of experts with all his talent, Emmanuel could Yet, he thought we could do better on the major economic challenges» have been more than full of himself; “Emmanuel was Emmanuel notably came up with undermine confidence in its currency; collectively: take better care of which Olivier Blanchard and I have and that instead he always remained the idea of using fiscal policy to but if the dominant country does not students and junior faculty; be less the honor of chairing. His intellectual modestly attentive to others. always a creative and lower real interest rates when provide that liquidity, its currency may competitive; listen more to others; qualities and his always well-argued rigorous collaborator the central bank can no longer be overtaken by another currency. show more respect and interest for dialogue made him a much sought- «Farhi» in Arabic means «joy». And, adjust nominal rates downwards: Emmanuel and Matteo analyzed the those who work in different fields and after advisor to public decision- beyond the gentle melancholia in his quest for the an increase in VAT recreating possibility that a multipolar world be with different approaches; restrain makers, central banks, and other that one can discern in some of his common good, and some inflation, accompanied by a more unstable than a world with a from using the media and the social institutions in France and beyond. He pictures, joyful he was; he could talk his generosity, humor decreasing trajectory of labor taxes single reserve currency, reconciling networks to arouse interest in one’s actively advised the Banque de France, passionately for hours about politics, to neutralize the impact of this the Keynesian stance with that of work prior to peer validation. It is true which awarded him a prize in 2013. arts, literature, movies or good food. and communicative consumer price adjustment on firms’ financial stability. that our desire for recognition, which cheerfulness made him pricing response. Very technical for is human and a key motivator for Emmanuel was a wonderful human the layman, but innovative ideas to With his former student, David accomplishment, sometimes grows “Farhi” in Arabic means being, and having friends like him is a dear friend” guide public policy, which only deep Baqaee, Emmanuel had been into narcissism and distracts us from “joy”. And, beyond the what gives us joy in our professional thinking can provide. working recently on exciting new what we are meant to serve, science. gentle melancholia that life beyond the sheer pleasure of methods. They aimed to analyze We are all aware of our individual research and teaching. For those of His insatiable curiosity then led him macroeconomics as a network of and collective shortcomings, but one can discern in some us who have had the privilege to have After his PhD, Emmanuel went to the foundations of international interacting industries and to see how Emmanuel was more mindful than of his pictures, joyful known him, it is hard to imagine a on to publish a series of articles finance. His work with Matteo economic shocks have cascading most of us about the need to strike seminar or a conference without him, that transformed Keynesian Maggiori focused on a world in which effects, with implications such as the right balance between self he was; he could talk a dinner without his smile and laugh, macroeconomics. He notably risk-free assets, one of Emmanuel’s the tripling of the oil shock impact in interest and other-regarding behavior. passionately for hours and the loss of his support, insights, focused on slow price adjustment, favorite themes, are provided by the 1970s, or the current devastating With his meritocratic upbringing, and friendship. the difficulty for the central bank one or more reserve countries. This economic effects of the coronavirus he valued hard work and expressed about politics, arts, to bring nominal interest rates work illustrates Emmanuel’s ability pandemic. outrage at the little arrangements literature, movies or My thoughts go out to Emmanuel’s below zero when cash guarantees a to capture in a very simple model and self-promotion that plague any mother, Danièle Debordeaux, his steady nominal value, the solvency the essence of an important issue I have had the privilege of working profession, including ours. good food” partner Micol, his family, as well as constraints of banks and companies, not previously understood. In the with Emmanuel since his doctoral to all his students, collaborators the liquidity available in the economy, «Triffin Dilemma», a country – say, years. We began with the link Those reflexions about our scientific Emmanuel remained very close to and the whole scientific and and (with Xavier Gabaix) economic the United States, whose dollar has between liquidity and financial duties, which he shared amicably France, where he returned as often professional community. We have agents’ behavioral anomalies. His long served as a reserve currency stability: first analyzing the with his friends over dinner, were not as he could. He appreciated his lost an unparalleled thinker and a work, which will continue to be – caters to an investment demand consequences of financial bubbles meant to take the high moral ground; home country’s culture and art of great human being. Let us do our relevant in the post-Covid economy, from investors across the rest of for economic booms and recessions; that was definitely not his style. living. A lover of French poetry and best to keep his memory alive and to had a sole purpose: contributing to the world. Providing the liquidity then working on the idea that the Most importantly, he implemented literature, he was very sociable and focus on remembering his talent, his the common good and improving our demanded abroad when needed may high level of short-term bank debt his standards as a colleague and full of humor. A pure product of intellectual legacy, his mentoring, and economic policies. lead to a risk of sovereign default and prior to 2008 was an equilibrium a transmitter of knowledge. He the French meritocratic republican the good times spent with him.

28 29 TSE Inaugural Lecture 2020 Toulouse School of Economics TSE Inaugural Lecture 2020 Economics for the Common Good

The Covid-19 crisis is a unique combination of two What can daunting challenges, says economic historian Victor history Gay. Lockdown restrictions, triggered by a health crisis, have themselves created an teach us economic crisis. How will these crises interact? As the world about faces this critical juncture, his TSE Inaugural Lecture argued that we have much to learn Covid-19? from catastrophic events in the past.

Victor Gay Epidemic risks were almost part had an important impact on the mortality relative to the mean. Scandinavia appear to show a drop Lessons from the past TSE Research Faculty of everyday life until very late in distribution of excess mortality. Looking at manufacturing jobs and in fertility during the pandemic, the 20th century. The Black Death Further research across the world bank assets, Correia’s study finds followed by a baby boom. We must be modest about the probably killed around half of the has found that influenza was more little evidence that NPIs hurt the limitations of historical comparisons; European population. The Columbian deadly in locations with poor health, economy. By reducing transmission The Great Depression today’s context is very different. For Exchange wiped out nearly 90% of income, and air quality. This suggests and mortality, NPIs may even have instance, in 1918-19 there was much the Amerindian population. Even in that Covid-19 is unlikely to be a boosted the economy by allowing To understand today’s less room for strategic choices about 19th-century New York, there was leveller: if anything, it will aggravate more people to return to work. But economic challenges, the Great education. School closures and some kind of epidemic crisis every socioeconomic disparities. the analysis is not clear cut. For Depression may be a more useful other NPIs were less stringent and decade or so. But in terms of its initial example, limited NPIs might have point of comparison. Many studies disruptive; the standard of education spread, rate of transmission, and Comparing the 1901-1929 growth been very efficient in protecting show long-run scarring effects and its returns were much lower. severity, the 1918-1919 influenza is trajectories of 43 countries, Barro prime-age workers, for whom the through in utero exposure to income the natural historical counterpart to et al (2020) find that a 1 percentage influenza was much more deadly than shocks in 1929-1930. The impact of Covid-19 on gender today’s health crisis. point increase in flu death rates was Covid-19. inequality is a big problem today, associated with a 3% fall in real GDP Moulton (2017) compares the income especially for working mothers, per capita. Overall, the pandemic Long-term scars in 1940 of those who entered the but in 1918 female labor force “The influenza pandemic was more deadly in represented a 6% decline in real labor market before and after 1930. participation was much lower. locations with poor health, income, and air GDP per capita. This is slightly less In his “fetal origins” study, Almond He finds 15% earnings penalties for than what we expect from Covid-19. (2006) finds that Americans born the less-educated in the hardest-hit Nevertheless, the influenza pandemic quality. This suggests that Covid-19 is unlikely Other studies looking at medium- towards the end of the 1918-19 states. Recent research suggests and the Great Depression offer to be a leveller: if anything, it will aggravate run effects in Italy and Denmark find epidemic suffer from weaker this long-run scarring also created important lessons. If nothing is done, that there was a recession but it was socioeconomic outcomes many occupational and residential any health-economy tradeoff will socioeconomic disparities” broadly over by the early 1920s. decades later. The 1960-1980 displacement for younger people, be especially acute in the current disability rates, high-school dropout especially in rural areas. context. Is there a health-economy tradeoff? rates, and income of those who Influenza in 1918-19 were in utero during the influenza More recently, research in the US People with low socio-economic During the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic suggest it had lifelong suggests that people who entered status – often women and minorities Focusing on US cities, Clay et al pandemic, non-pharmaceutical scarring effects. These findings are the labor market after the global in high-contact jobs – compound (2019) investigate why influenza interventions (NPIs) in the US included supported by subsequent studies in financial crisis (2009-2015 entrants) many risks. Young jobseekers hit some areas harder than others. school closures, quarantines, and Taiwan, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, have 2-3% lower employment rates will be hit particularly hard by the Using infant mortality, illiteracy, bans on public assemblies. Correia and . A possible explanation is compared to pre-crisis entrants. Only economic downturn. These groups and proximity to coal-fired power et al (2020) find that such measures that parents may have reallocated 2009 entrants have lower earnings will together bear a disproportionate plants as proxies, they show that were quite efficient in flattening resources toward healthier siblings. (2%), however, so employment burden of the Covid-19 crisis, health and economic conditions, the mortality curve. High-NPI cities Influenza may have had many scarring may be more persistent than which may inflict scars that last for and environmental pollution, experienced a 45% decline in peak other long-term effects. Studies in wage scarring. generations.

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