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CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC REPORT Venezuela's Crisis Spills Over To

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CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC REPORT Venezuela's Crisis Spills Over To CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC REPORT June 2017 Venezuela’s Crisis Spills Over to the Caribbean The IMF reported that the Venezuelan economy is expected to remain in a deep recession and on a path to hyperinflation. Real GDP is expected to fall by 7.4% in 2017, following an estimated 18% decline in 2016 and 6.2% in 2015. Wholesale price inflation is estimated at 470% in 2016, while consumer prices rose 274% in 2016 and are expected to rise further by 1,134% in 2017. The IMF further stated “Venezuela’s social conditions continue to deteriorate rapidly, with poverty in 2016 rising to 82% of households, 50% of which are classified as being in extreme poverty...further aggravated by lack of medicines and the collapse of the health system...with the homicide rate increasing to 92 murders per 100,000 inhabitants in 2016, up from 79 in 2013.” It is possible therefore, that Venezuela now has the highest homicide rate in the world. Could high and increasing levels of crime and violence in the Caribbean be related to similar trends in Venezuela? According to an IDB report, crime and violence costs the Caribbean 3% of GDP, and “An average of 40% of the Carib- bean population identifies crime and security-related issues as the main prob- lem facing their country, even above poverty, the economy, or inequality. In Central Bank Net Foreign Assets : Aruba several Caribbean countries, crime has increased over the last decade, with USD millions 950 homicide rates more than doubling and the countries concurrently becoming 900 more violent”. The report further states “Weapons manufactured in the Unit- 850 800 ed States, Venezuela, Brazil, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic are both 750 sold legally (for domestic sale to law enforcement and to licensed owners) 700 and smuggled illegally into Caribbean countries”. The World Bank also report- 650 ed “Weapons manufactured or otherwise available in South America are 600 550 smuggled through Venezuela, Suriname and Guyana to T&T via fishing vessels Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 May-15 May-16 May-14 and private pleasure boats”. Are our Caribbean leaders responding appropri- Source: Central Bank of Aruba, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited ately to this serious and increasing threat, either individually or collectively? Aruba — Economy contacted 0.6% in 2016 The Central Bank (CBA) reported that GDP contracted by 0.6% in 2016 but growth of 3.4% is expected for 2017, driven mainly by upgrades to the refin- ery. Overall visitor nights fell 4.3% in 2016 on lower Venezuelan stopover arri- vals, while US stopovers showed growth of 0.4% in 2016. In Q1 2017, stopover arrivals fell 15% y/y, as a 55% drop in arrivals from ‘other’ markets pertains Marla Dukharan Group Economist mainly to travelers from Venezuela. In the first two months of this year, RBC Caribbean cruise passenger arrivals fell 1.1% y/y, Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO) (868) 688-9845 [email protected] data show. CBA net foreign assets grew almost 15% y/y in March 2017 to USD929.5 million, which we estimate at roughly 5.2 months of import cover. Central Bank External Reserves : The Bahamas The Bahamas — New Government, high expectations USD Millions 1100 Central Bank reports show external reserves declining 6.2% y/y at the end of 1050 April 2017 to USD951.75 million, which we estimate at 2.3 months of imports. 1000 950 According to the recent Budget announcement, zero growth is estimated for 900 2016, contributing to weaker fiscal revenues. This, combined with higher 850 spending than expected, resulted in a fiscal deficit of BSD500 million 800 750 (excluding arrears currently estimated at BSD300 million), versus BSD100 mil- 700 lion budgeted in FY2016/17. The fiscal deficit is budgeted at BSD323 million Jul-15 Jul-16 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Oct-15 Oct-16 Jun-15 Jun-16 Sep-15 Sep-16 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Aug-15 Aug-16 Dec-15 Dec-16 Nov-15 Nov-16 May-15 May-16 Source: Central Bank of the Bahamas, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited or 3.5% of GDP in FY2017/18, based on revenue and expenditure measures. International Reserves : Barbados USD '000 900,000 850,000 Barbados — Fiscal devaluation, steep adjustment ahead 800,000 750,000 Central Bank (CBB) data show reserves fell 25% y/y in March 2017 (22nd con- 700,000 650,000 secutive month of y/y declines) to USD353 million, which we estimate at 10.7 600,000 550,000 weeks of imports. CBB holdings of Central Government debt grew 58.4% y/y 500,000 450,000 in March 2017 to BBD2.11 billion, or 72% of CBB total assets. The FY2017/18 400,000 350,000 budget was revised from a projected deficit of BBD583.6 million or 6.3% of 300,000 GDP, to a surplus of BBD4.4 million. See here for a full report on the budget. Jul-03 Jul-10 Apr-05 Apr-12 Jan-14 Jan-00 Jan-07 Oct-15 Oct-01 Oct-08 Jun-06 Jun-13 Sep-04 Sep-11 Mar-01 Mar-08 Mar-15 Feb-04 Feb-11 Aug-00 Aug-07 Aug-14 Dec-02 Dec-09 Dec-16 Nov-05 Nov-12 May-02 May-09 May-16 Source: Central Bank of Barbados, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited Cayman Islands — New coalition government installed CTO data show stopover arrivals fell 1.4% y/y in Q1 2017, as 24.5% less Euro- peans and 5.2% less tourists from ‘other’ markets, visited. Similarly, cruise passenger arrivals fell 6.5% y/y in Q1 2017, according to the CTO. A coalition Government was installed for the first time recently, and has inherited an economy that has grown for six consecutive years, while recording wider fis- cal surpluses for four consecutive years to 2016, bringing debt down for five years straight by an average of 3% per annum. Cuba — Russia sends oil as Venezuela supply dwindles Reports indicate that shipments of crude oil from Venezuela have dropped by about 40% in the last year, so Russia has stepped in, sending an initial ship- ment of 249,000 barrels in May. Cuba produces roughly half its fuel needs, or an estimated 4 million tonnes per annum. Venezuela had provided an esti- mated 90,000 bpd or 60% of Cuba’s fuel needs over several years, and overall assistance had been estimated at USD10-12 billion per annum. Rosneft, Rus- sia’s state oil company, announced an agreement to supply 250,000 tonnes of oil and diesel fuel to Cuba, a deal estimated by some at USD100 million. Net Official Reserves : Curacao and Sint Maarten NAf Millions 2,400 2,300 Curacao and Sint Maarten — Venezuela affects tourism 2,200 Following a 5.6% fall in stopovers to Curacao in 2016 based mainly on less 2,100 Venezuelan visitors, in January 2017 there was a further 7.1% y/y drop, this 2,000 P r o 1,900 v time on lower arrivals across all major source markets, CTO data show. i s 1,800 i Cruise passenger arrivals to St. Maarten expanded 15.5% y/y in Q1 2017. Re- o 1,700 n a l 1,600 serves are estimated by the Central Bank to have declined by 7.24% y/y in 1,500 May 2017 to NAf2,088 million, which we estimate at 5.9 months of reserves. Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 Source: Central Bank of Curacao and Sint Maarten, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited 2 Inflation Rate : The Dominican Republic % change y/y 4.0 3.70 3.68 3.51 3.49 3.41 3.34 3.5 3.14 3.13 3.11 2.99 2.88 2.84 3.0 2.83 2.82 2.68 2.53 2.34 2.33 2.5 1.91 1.85 2.0 1.75 1.74 1.71 1.70 1.59 1.58 1.54 1.47 1.35 1.5 1.23 1.16 1.02 0.91 0.88 1.0 0.64 0.62 0.50 0.43 0.39 0.5 0.23 0.04 - 0.0 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Jan-17 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Oct-15 Oct-14 Oct-16 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-14 -0.5 Source: Central Bank of the Dominican Republic, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited Net International Reserves : Guyana USD Millions 850 800 writing. The pass through effects of the SRD’s devaluation has seen inflation exchange rate from SRD4.00/USD1.00 in late 2015 to SRD7.58 at the time of the foreign exchange regime that appears to have been adopted, taking the appears to have stalled, so the policy stance is unclear.
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