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The Euro and the World Monetary System

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The Euro and the World Monetary System A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Rose, Franz-Josef Article — Digitized Version The Euro and the World Monetary system Intereconomics Suggested Citation: Rose, Franz-Josef (1997) : The Euro and the World Monetary system, Intereconomics, ISSN 0020-5346, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden-Baden, Vol. 32, Iss. 5, pp. 220-224, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02929830 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/140603 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu EMU Franz-Josef Rose* The Euro and the World Monetary System Stage Three of European Economic and Monetary Union is scheduled to begin on 1st January 1999 at the latest; by 1st July 2002 the euro will probably be the only legal tender in the participating countries. The role of the European Central Bank and the euro in the international monetary system is still very unclear, however. This poses a risk for the intended independence of the ECB. rhen the euro is introduced, national currencies foreign reserve assets to the ECB, which will be able W will be abolished within the European Economic to use them for exchange market intervention, either and Monetary Union. As a result, all existing trade centrally or on a decentralised basis. In order to within the internal market and part of the foreign trade achieve these objectives, a number of adjustments in of the EU will be transacted in the new currency. In powers and responsibilities are necessary, but they 1995 the fifteen EU countries exported goods and have yet to be agreed in detail. The interesting services worth $134 billion to the USA, equal to 7% of question is whether member countries are prepared their total exports of $1,911 billion, and imported $147 to surrender powers to the new ECB. billion from that country, equal to 7.7% of their Under Article 14.4 of the Protocol on the Statute of imports of $1,901 billion. Exports to Japan accounted the ECB, national central banks may perform other for 2.2% of the total and imports for 4%. Around 22% functions on their own responsibility and liability. of EU exports went to developing countries, while However, the Governing Council of the ECB can 20% of EU imports originated in those countries. They determine, by a two-thirds majority, that these are therefore important trading partners of the EU. As functions are incompatible with the objectives and trade with them will soon be conducted partly in tasks of the ESCB. The ECB therefore has the pos- euros, it can be assumed that there will be strong sibility of acquiring powers that the politicians want to demand for the new currency in the international deny it. In addition, Article 23 of the Protocol em- foreign exchange markets to cater for these powers the ECB to establish relations with inter- transactions. Nevertheless, the US dollar will also national organisations. The President of the ECB will continue to be widely used in trade with third play an important role with regard to the reputation of countries. In 1994 57.1% of all foreign exchange the institution. Part of his task will be to ward off reserves worldwide (51.5% in the industrial countries) attacks by national governments on the indepen- was held in US dollars, 14.8% in Deutsche Mark dence of the Bank. During the initial period, in (16.9%), 8.1% in yen (7.7%) and 7.8% in ecus (14%). particular, he will have to demonstrate his stead- The latter will be exchanged for euros on a 1 for 1 fastness so that it quickly becomes clear that the ECB basis. is not a plaything of national interests. The introduction of the euro is linked to the imple- mentation of a single monetary and exchange rate The Euro and the IMF policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) will be responsible for maintaining price stability? Its inde- If the euro becomes the sole legal tender in the pendence is enshrined in the Maastricht Treaty (Article EMU, it will be necessary to redefine the Special 107 of the EC Treaty; Chapter Ill, Article 7 of the Protocol on the Statute of the ESCB and the ECB). I For a critique of the ESCB, see G. Heinsohn, O. Steiger: The national central banks will transfer part of their Kategorie-2-Sicherheiten: alarmierende Defekte im zukOnftigen ESZB, in: WlRTSCHAFTSDIENST, No. 5, 1997, pp. 265-267. The Treaty speaks of "price stability", but it undoubtedly means "price * University of Paderborn, Germany. level stability". 220 INTERECONOMICS, September/October 1997 EMU Drawing Right (SDR), the accounting unit of the IMF.2 something that hitherto only the USA has enjoyed, At present the SDR consists of the following with 17.78% of the votes. At present Japan has "only" currencies: US dollar (40%), yen (17%), DM (21%), 5.54% of the votes. Against opposition from the EMU, French franc (11%) and pound sterling (11%). Soon no new member countries could be admitted and no there will be only four components: the US dollar, the quota increases, gold sales or new SDR allocations yen, the euro and sterling. The weight of the euro in agreed. A joining of forces would therefore shift the the SDR depends partly on the IMF's estimation of the balance of power within the IMF in favour of the scale of trading in euros on the international foreign Europeans. exchange markets. A strong euro would probably [] Scenario 2: the nation state variant: The EMU have to account for about 30% of the SDR, a true countries continue to think in national terms and counterweight to the dollar. The revaluation of the speak with many tongues, as hitherto. Agreement is SDR could provide the EMU countries with an still possible only at the level of the lowest common opportunity to combine forces and to begin to pursue denominator. National governments are not prepared a common policy in the international monetary arena. 3 to surrender real responsibility and hence to transfer After the introduction of the euro, all transactions power to a supranational organisation. They continue with international organisations will be conducted in to be represented at the IMF by their national central the new currency. For the IMF this means that the bank governors or finance ministers, so that there is countries' paid-in quotas will be converted into euros. no change in the Board of Governors and the It would then suddenly find itself holding large Executive Board. The chances of the euro becoming quantities of euros. The extent to which it will use a world reserve currency are reduced. It could appear these in drawings by member states remains to be that the EMU has no confidence in its own currency or seen. If the euro meets a lukewarm reception in world institutions. The EMU would have only observer markets and cannot establish itself as a world reserve status at the IME currency, this could have consequences for the The EMU is not a member of the IMF and therefore liquidity of the IME The two following scenarios has no rights or obligations. As a result, only the describe conceivable alternative positions of the separate, albeit now euro-denominated balances of EMU: payments of individual countries can be taken into account. Moreover, the individual countries also retain [] Scenario 1: the European variant: The EMU mem- their quotas and the associated voting rights. The ber countries relinquish their national quotas and quotas are based partly on political strength, but voting rights in the Board of Governors and Executive primarily on economic performance as evidenced by Board, join forces and belong to the IMF as the EMU. national statistics. The nation states therefore They are represented in the Board of Governors by continue to have the possibility of making drawings in the President of the new European Central Bank, the IMF. If an EMU country got into balance-of- whose alternate is the Commissioner for financial payments difficulties, it could obtain credit without the affairs or the President of the Commission. The EMU ECB being able to prevent it. The ECB's monetary also appoints the area's Executive Director. The policy could therefore be undermined. There are no number of members of both the Board of Governors restrictions on drawings within the reserve tranche, and the Executive Board decreases. The EMU (e.g. although drawings in the higher tranches are subject Germany, France, Austria and the Benelux countries) to conditions. In theory, an individual EMU country then has around 16% of the votes in the Executive could therefore agree an adjustment programme with Board (as presently constituted). If Italy and Spain are the IMF without the consent of the ECB. The inherent also members of the EMU, it accounts for 21% of the potential for conflict would adversely affect the votes, and if all fifteen EU states participate in EMU reputation of the ECB and hence the standing of the the EU has just under 30% of the votes euro.
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