Neighboring Risk

An Alternative Approach to Understanding and Responding to Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan Neighboring Risk: An Alternative Approach to Understanding and Responding to Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan

Published by: Rural Development Policy Institute (RDPI), Islamabad Copyright © 2010 Rural Development Policy Institute Office 6, Ramzan Plaza, G 9 Markaz, Islamabad, Pakistan Phone: +92 51 285 6623, +92 51 285 4523 Fax: +92 51 285 4783 URL: www.rdpi.org.pk

This publication is produced by RDPI with financial support from Plan Pakistan.

Citation is encouraged. Reproduction of this publication for educational and other non- commercial purpose is authorized without prior written permission from RDPI, provided the source is fully acknowledged.Production, resale or other commercial purposes are prohibited without prior written permission from RDPI, Islamabad, Pakistan.

Citation: RDPI, Neighboring Risk, Islamabad, 2010

Authored by: Abdul Shakoor Sindhu

Research Team: Beenish Kulsoom, Saqib Shehzad, Tariq Chishti, Tailal Masood, Gulzar Habib, Abida Nasren, Qaswer Abbas

Text Editing: Masood Alam

Cover & Layout Design: Abdul Shakoor Sindhu

Photos: Abdul Shakoor Sindhu, Saqib Shehzad, Beenish Kulsoom, Tariq Chishti, Asif Khattak

Printed by: Khursheed Printers, 15-Khayaban-e-Suhrawardy, Aabpara, Islamabad. Ph: 051-2277399

Available from: Rural Development Policy Institute Office 6, Ramzan Plaza, G-9 Markaz, Islamabad, Pakistan Phone: +92 51 285 6623, +92 51 285 4523 Fax: +92 51 285 4783 Website: www.rdpi.org.pk Be a part of it

Rural Development Policy Institute (RDPI) is a civil 'Plan' is an international organization working in initiative aimed to stimulate public dialogue on policies, Pakistan since 1997. Plan's activities focus on safe inform public action, and activate social regrouping to motherhood and child survival, children's access to celebrate capacities and address vulnerabilities of quality education, water and sanitation, community resource-poor rural communities in Pakistan. RDPI capacity building, income generation and child undertakes research, planning, advocacy and rights. Plan works in partnership, first and foremost, demonstration of pilot projects in the key thematic areas with children, their families and communities but of disaster risk management, environment, adaptation to also with government departments/ agencies and climate change, sustainable livelihoods, appropriate other developmental organizations in addressing technologies, local governance, community media, and the key issues impacting children in Pakistan. basic education. www.plan-international.org www.rdpi.org.pk Neighboring Risk

Research Team Beenish Kulsoom Saqib Shehzad Abdul Shakoor Sindhu Tariq Chishti Research Team Leader and Author Tailal Masood Qaswer Abbas Gulzar Habib Abida Nasreen

A hymn in the praise of Indus and its tributaries 1. The singer, O ye Waters, in Vivasvan’s place, shall tell your grandeur forth that is beyond compare. The Rivers have come forward triply, seven and seven. Sindhu in might surpasses all the streams that flow.

2. Varuna cut the channels for thy forward course, O Sindhu, when thou rannest on to win the race. Thou speedest o’er precipitous ridges of the earth, when thou art Lord and Leader of these moving floods. 3. His roar is lifted up to heaven above the earth: he puts forth endless vigour with a flash of light. Like floods of rain that fall in thunder from the cloud, so Sindhu rushes on bellowing like bull. 4. Like mother to their calves, like milch-kine with their milk, so, Sindhu, unto thee the roaring rivers run. Thou leadest as a warrior king thine army’s wings what thou comest in the van of these swift streams. 5. Favor ye this my laud, O Ganga, Yamuna, O Sutudri, Parushni, and Sarasavati: With Asikini, Vitasta, O Marudvridha, O Arjikiya with Sushoma hear my call.

Rig Veda

1. ‘Sindhu’ is the ancient and colloquial name of river Indus 2. Cited in Ravi Kinaray ki Harapai Bastian, Zubair Shafi Ghori, National College of Arts, Lahore, 2005

CONTENTS NEIGHBORING RISK

Page Overview...... 1 A.1 The Context...... 1 A.2 This Report...... 2 A.3 Major Findings...... 3 A.4 Ideas for Action...... 12 References and Notes...... 15 Section 1 Introduction...... 16 1.1 The Context...... 16 1.1.1 Policy and Institutional Environment...... 16 1.1.2 The Real Challenge...... 16 1.1.3 The Alternative Perspective of Disaster Management...... 16 1.2 This Report...... 18 1.2.1 The Conceptual Framework...... 19 1.2.2 The Scope...... 19 1.3 The Research Process...... 20 1.3.1 Sampling Procedure...... 22 1.4 Why River Indus and its Neighboring Districts?...... 22 References and Notes...... 39 Section 2 An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts..... 40 2.1 Physiographic Conditions and Hazards...... 40 2.2 Human-Induced Hazards...... 41 2.2.1 Natural and Human-induced Hazards in the Sampled Districts...... 41 References and Notes...... 47 Section3 The Physical Conditions in the Sampled Districts...... 48 3.1 Area...... 48 3.2 Geology...... 49 3.3 Climate ...... 49 3.4 Soil Structure...... 50 3.5 Natural Vegetation...... 51 3.6 Landuse...... 51 References and Notes...... 53 Section 4 Socioeconomic Conditions in the Sampled Districts...... 54 4.1 Demography...... 54 4.2 Housing...... 55 4.3 Economic Conditions and Livelihoods...... 57 4.4 Education and Literacy...... 59 4.5 Health...... 60 4.6 Agriculture, Environment and Risks...... 61 References and Notes...... 64 Section 5 Besides Official Statistics: The State of Vulnerable Communities and Groups...... 65 5.1 The Community Survey Process ...... 67 5.1.1 Limitations...... 67 5.2 what the Residents Say: Findings of the Household Survey...... 68 5.3 Findings of the Community Survey...... 75 5.4 Voices of the voiceless...... 80 References and Notes...... 83

Page i CONTENTS NEIGHBORING RISK

Section 6 Responding to Hazards: Responses and Capacities of Local Governments and Civil Society Organizations...... 84 6.1 Research Process...... 84 6.1.1 Limitations...... 85 6.2 Major Findings...... 87 Section 7 Towards a Safer Future: Building Capacities, Reducing Vulnerabilities...... 93 Subsection 1...... 94 7.1.1 A Seven-Point Agenda for Sustainable Disaster Risk Reduction...... 94 Subsection 2...... 97 Subsection 3...... 102 References and Notes...... 103

List of Tables

Section 1 Introduction...... 16 Table 1.1 DRR relevant policies...... 17 Table 1.2 The sampling process...... 21 Table 1.3. Selection/shortlisting of the identified riverine (along the Indus) Districts in South Punjab and Sindh...... 23 Section 2 An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts..... 40 Table 2.1 Hazards and their intensity in the sampled districts...... 39 Section 5 Besides Official Statistics: The State of Vulnerable Communities and Groups.....65 Table 5.1 Summary of the community survey...... 65 Table 5.2 Sex of the respondents (Household Survey)...... 67 Table 5.3 Age groups of respondents (Household Survey) ...... 67 Table 5.4 Size of children population in the surveyed communities...... 68 Table 5.5 Size of population, 18 and below...... 69 Table 5.6 Age group of household heads...... 69 Table 5.7 Total population of the surveyed communities...... 69 Table 5.8 Housing space...... 70 Table 5.9 Housing facilities...... 70 Table 5.10 Economically active children (11-18 years)...... 71 Table 5.11 Livelihood source of the household heads...... 71 Table 5.12 Economically active population...... 72 Table 5.13 Education level of household heads...... 72 Table 5.14 Proportion of literate population...... 72 Table 5.15 Common health disorders...... 73 Table 5.16 Population suffering with fatal diseases...... 73 Table 5.17 Impacts of disasters...... 74

List of Figures

Section 1 Introduction...... 16 Fig1.1 The six step research process...... 20 Fig 1.2 Frequency of disasters in Pakistan 1954-2004...... 20 Fig 1.3 Population affected by disasters in Pakistan...... 21 Fig 1.4 The spiral of poverty, vulnerability and disaster risk...... 25

Page ii CONTENTS NEIGHBORING RISK

Fig 1.5 Pressure and release model...... 27 Fig 1.6 Sustainable livelihood framework...... 29 Fig 1.7 Disaster risk reduction and attainment of MDGs...... 31 Fig 1.8 Decentralized disaster risk management...... 33 Fig 1.9 Children and climate change...... 34 Section 4 Socioeconomic Conditions...... 54 Fig 4.1 Demography of the sampled districts...... 54 Fig 4.2 Population growth rate in the sampled districts...... 55 Fig 4.3 Urbanization in the sampled districts...... 56 Fig 4.4 Literacy trends in the sampled districts...... 59 Fig 4.5 Public Health issues in the sampled districts...... 60 Section 7 Towards a Safer Future: Building Capacities, Reducing Vulnerabilities...... 93 Fig 7.1 The release of 'pressure to reduce disasters: Progression of safety...... 95 Fig 7.2 Disaster Resistant Sustainable Livelihood Framework ...... 96

List of Maps

Section 1 Introduction...... 16 Map 1.1 Sampled districts...... 22 Map 1.2 Sampled districts and their location with respect to rivers...... 22 Section 2 An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts..... 40 Map 2.1 Administrative division of Pakistan...... 36 Map 2.2 Natural hazards and environmental damage...... 37 Map 2.3 Tectonic and seismic zones of Pakistan...... 38 Map 2.4 Major physiographic zones of Pakistan...... 42 Section3 The Physical Conditions in the Sampled Districts...... 48 Map 3.1 Geology...... 49 Map 3.2 Climate zones...... 49 Map 3.3 Soil structure...... 50 Map 3.4 Natural vegetation...... 51 Map 3.5 Land use...... 51

List of Boxes

Section 1 Introduction...... 16 Box 1.1 Eight Principles established in National Disaster Management Framework...... 17 Box1.2 Two Ways of looking at disasters...... 18 Section 7 Towards a Safer Future: Building Capacities, Reducing Vulnerabilities...... 93 Box 7.1 Four broader planning principles for disaster sensitive Development ...... 97 Box 7.2 The five policy principles...... 97

Page iii ACRONYMS NEIGHBORING RISK

ADB Asian Development Bank CCB Citizen Community Board CEDAW Convention on Elimination of all form of Discrimination against Women CRC Child Rights Convention CRPRID Center of Research on Poverty Reduction and Income Distribution CSO Civil Society Organization CRC Child Rights Convention DCO District Coordination Officer DDRM Decentralized Disaster Risk Management DO District Officer DOC District Officer Coordination DRM Disaster Risk Management DRR Disaster Risk Reduction DRSLF Disaster Resistant Sustainable Livelihood Framework EA Economically Active EAP Economically Active Population EDO Executive District Officer FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FGDs Focus Group Discussions GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System HDI Human Development Index HDR Human Development Report HFA Hyogo Framework for Action HH Household HIV/ AIDS Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome ILO International Labour Organization IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature LGO Local Government Ordinance MDA Multan Development Authority MDGs Millennium Development Goals mm Millimetres MTDF Mid Term Development Framework NDMA National Disaster Management Authority NDMF National Disaster Management Framework NSDS National Sustainable Development Strategy NWFP North West Frontier Province PAR Pressure and Release Model PDMAs Provincial Disaster Management Authorities PSLM Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey RDPI Rural Development Policy Institute SL Sustainable Livelihood SLF Sustainable Livelihood Framework SOP Standard Operating Procedures SPDC Social Policy and Development Center sq.km Square Kilometres UC Union Council UN United Nations

Page iv ACRONYMS NEIGHBORING RISK

UN/ISDR United Nations’ International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNDP United Nations’ Development Programme US United States USA United States of America VIP Very Important Person WASA Water and Sanitation Agency WB World Bank WSC World Summit for Children WWF World Wide Fund for Nature

Page v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS NEIGHBORING RISK

We are indebted to all individuals and institutions We also gratefully acknowledge the cooperation and whose contributions, ideas and cooperation have support of all the district governments and officials in made the completion of this report possible. We are the studied districts who spared time for the also thankful to all those who remained behind the consultative meetings, shared very useful documents scene but actively participated in one way or other in and gave valuable comments, critique and carrying out the research and compilation of the suggestions. report. The whole team at RDPI remained a source of The field research for this report would not have been consistent support throughout the process, while possible sans the facilitation provided by following Almas Saleem, National Coordinator Shehersaaz organization: enthusiastically volunteered her time and energies at various stages of writing and production of this ! Doaba Foundation, District Layyah and report. We are also grateful to Masood Alam for Muzaffargarh editorial review of text of this report. ! Saanjh Foundation and HELO, District Muzaffargarh Last but not the least we are grateful to the technical ! Help Foundation, Saya Foundation, and and financial support of Plan Pakistan which made the Neelab Development Organization, District research for and printing of this report possible. Rajanpur Colleagues from Plan Pakistan like Haider W. Yaqoob, ! Sewai Foundation and Rural Development Country Director; Ramrajya Joshi, former Program Organizations Coordination Council, District Support Manager, and Farah Naz, Program Support Ghotki Manager remained very supportive throughout the ! Indus Resource Centre, District Khairpur research process. While Syed Tassadaq Hussain Shah, ! WWF, WHDT Network and Organization for Advisor DRM has been a source of inspiration and Human Development, District Thatta guidance with his thought provoking and revolutionary ideas and spiritual insights.

Page vi PREFACE NEIGHBORING RISK

This report is an effort to unfold the story of those who neighbor the risks which often silently or forcefully trespass their homes, their fields, their livelihoods, their health, and shatter their dreams and hopes for a safer and prosperous future. These risks have different names; they appear or just stay, in diverse shapes and varying intensity. At some point in time they appear as floods, on other, as droughts. Sometime they take the shape of pest attack hitting the fields or frost biting orchards. Some risks are mere manifestations of Mother Nature. There are others created by the human kind itself, knowingly or unknowingly, in the name of fancy ideas like 'development', 'economic growth', 'efficient natural resource use' or even 'sustenance'.

A natural phenomenon can be good and bad at the same time, depending on the perspective. For most people 'flood' is synonymous with 'disaster'. However in a bid to conveniently live with our own limitations of vocabulary and imagination, we overlook the fact that floods brought about the invention of agriculture, which in turn made it possible for the primitive gatherer and hunter to learn the art of settled life and establish what are now known to us as great river civilizations. The Indus valley civilization thrived in villages and towns established on the banks of river Indus, for instance. Floods still play an important role in replenishing nutrients in the soil and thus sustaining agriculture.

Similarly, drought is generally perceived as a precursor of crop failures, and if prolonged, may result in famine. Many of us have images and stories in our minds of famines that erupted in parts of Africa and Asia (say the famine in Ethiopia or one that is known as the Great Bengal Famine of 30's which took millions of lives). However, this phenomenon can also be seen as the balancing act of Nature, in that it makes the droughts (scarcity of water) follow the abundance (rains and floods) and vice versa, and brings its own rewards in the most unexpected ways. In the course of research for this report, we came across the fact that it was the 'severe' drought of 1999-2000 in parts of Sindh and Baluchistan, which helped recover thousands of acres of agriculture-worthy land in Sindh that was otherwise lying waterlogged.

Amartya Sen, the noble laureate of economics and a living intellectual giant of South Asia, made us know that the loss of life in the Great Bengal Famine was not as much an act of nature as a consequence of abject poverty. Through his research, he found that there was abundant grain stored in the then colonial administration's godowns but the paying capacity of people had been eroded over the years to an extent that they were not able to purchase food.

The phenomena of 'Global warming', 'greenhouse effect' and 'climate change', which have become buzzwords in the present discourse, encompass the ugly reality that in mere two hundred years, we have exhausted our planet's and its atmosphere's capacities (through deforestation and an overzealous use of fossil fuels) that have been sustaining the human species for well over two million years. And all this to fuel the so-called industrial or mass production revolution!

This report (Neighboring Risk) does not blame the risks. Neither does it blame the

Page vii PREFACE NEIGHBORING RISK people who face these risks. In fact it blames no one. What it actually tries to do is to unveil the attitudinal, societal, economic, political and technological regimes and decisions and priorities that contribute to disturbing the ecosystems and natural balances to an extent that otherwise harmless phenomena turn into disasters. Similarly these very causes make people - especially the poor - too fragile to absorb the shocks of natural and human- induced risks or hazards.

Neighboring Risk tries to highlight the alternative approach to looking at and dealing with risks and hazards, and suggests ways to create an environment where human rights as well as rights of environment are protected and reflected in the development and governance discourses. It emphasises the importance of making children, their communities and local governments the focal point of risk-reduction strategies.

Neighboring Risk is divided into eight parts - a main report and seven detailed district profiles. The main report is further divided into seven sections. Section 1 introduces the research process, policy context of disaster management, and the conceptual framework the report employs for its structure and analysis. Section 2 presents an overview of hazards and vulnerability that prevail especially in the seven districts studied for the report. Section 3 briefly introduces the physical conditions of the sampled districts that determine the nature of physical risks while section 4 brings forth the overall socio- economic conditions of the studied districts.

Section 5 contains the results of household survey and discussions with different sections of communities including children, sampled in the seven districts for a deeper understanding of the situation of at-risk communities. Employing the decentralized disaster risk reduction paradigm, section 6 highlights the capacities of local governments and civil society organizations functional in the studied districts.

The recommendations of the report are contained in section 7 which is divided into three sub sections. Subsection 1 sketches broader principles that should be followed while designing disaster risk management priorities, policies and programs especially at the district level. Subsection 2 proposes some practical measures for improving the disaster risk management practices in the sampled districts. Subsection 3 recommends a framework 'making local governance work for sustainable disaster risk reduction'. This framework is based upon the provisions of incumbent local government system and guidelines of Hyogo Framework for Action and Pakistan's National Disaster Management Framework. This section also highlights the important provisions of these instruments.

Each district profile is divided into two parts. In the first part the prevailing hazards, vulnerabilities and socio-economic development conditions are presented. The second part contains a comprehensive district-and-issue specific action plan by highlighting the issues; strategies to respond to them; and possible actors who should shape and contribute to these strategies. District profiles along with the annexure of the report are continued in the CD enclosed with this report.

Ideas of decentralized and child-centred development and disaster risk management, provisions of Hyogo Framework for Action, National Disaster Management Framework and alternative perspective on disasters are the cross cutting themes of this report.

Page viii OVERVIEW NEIGHBORING RISK Overview

A.1. The Context terror has cost Pakistan losses worth Pakistan's physical make up and 35billion US$ since 9/11 (3). The climatic conditions breed a variety of environmental degradation is costing hazards, many of which have been Pakistan annual losses to the tune of turning to disasters of considerable 365 billion rupees or 6% of its GDP magnitude in the past and have a and these costs fall disproportionately potential to sustain these trends in the upon the poor (4). future. The socioeconomic conditions, environmental degradation, poor The super floods of 1973 and later in governance, absence of land use 1976 compelled the policymakers and The socioeconomic conditions, planning and management controls, country's managers to think of environmental degradation, and political and power structures evolving strategies to control the flood poor governance, absence of prevailing in Pakistan compound the damages. The First National Flood Plan land use planning and impacts of these hazard and pave their of 1978 and later the Second National management controls, and way to turn into outright disasters. Flood Plan of 1988 were some of political structures prevailing in national level efforts in this regard. In Pakistan compound the impacts Floods, droughts, cyclones, the aftermath of deadliest Kashmir of hazards and pave their way earthquakes, torrential rains and hill earthquake in 2005, a strong need was to turn into outright disasters. torrent induced flash floods, canal felt both in government and non breaches and landslides have not been government circles to evolve an uncommon phenomenon in strategies and institutions that could Pakistan. However there are a number contribute in reducing the incidences During last 62 years the floods, of risks and hazards which have a of disasters. For the first time, the considered to be the most much bigger share in taking or ruining hazards which earlier were tried to be recurrent hazards in Pakistan, people's lives and disturbing their controlled rather than managed, were have taken some 8000 lives and livelihood systems. These non looked at from the angle of risks the inflicted financial losses worth conventional and human induced impacts of which could be reduced. 15 billion US $. Compared to hazards include transport and The constitution of National Disaster these figures, since September industrial accidents, environmental Management Authority, promulgation 2001 more than 5000 human degradation, terrorism (in recent of National Disaster Management lives have been lost in terrorism times) and the looming threats posed Ordinance 2006, and formulation of activities. Each year, by climate change. During last 62 years National Disaster Management environmental degradation of country's existence, the floods Framework are significant steps in this costs Pakistan losses worth 365 considered to be the most recurrent regard. billion rupees or 6% of its GDP. hazards, have taken some 8000 lives and inflicted financial losses worth 15 Despite these encouraging billion US $ (1). Compared to these achievements, the dominant figures, there are media reports that perspective and conventional suggest that since the incident of 9/11 approach of understanding and in United States of America, the wave responding to calamities, still prevails of terrorist attacks in Pakistan has in Pakistan like it does in rest of the taken more than 5000 human lives (2). world. This approach is obsessed with According to Pak-US Business Council 'emergency management' and Report, 2009, the so called war on 'reaction' where people affected with

Page 1 OVERVIEW NEIGHBORING RISK disasters are considered mere ‘victims’ reduction efforts by promoting and who need to be provided only with advocating child centred disaster risk relief. The concerned government agencies respond or react only when a disaster situation is developed, meaning disasters are actually waited to happen.

The alternative perspective of looking at disasters; focuses on the social, economic, political and environmental causes that contribute to turning hazards into disasters. It stresses upon the need to address these causes and devise strategies to reduce the To integrate disaster risk disaster risk. It also considers disaster reduction into mainstream risk reduction as a governance and development planning and development agenda and calls for governance, there is a need to integrating disaster risk reduction into start with analysing existing mainstream governance and development and governance development policies, plans and patterns from the angle of risk. actions.

This report employs the alternative perspective and takes stock from the Hyogo Framework for Action, UN Convention on Child Rights, National Disaster Management Framework and The riverine and desert areas Local Government Ordinance 2001 are politically marginalised, besides incumbent national policies on physically isolated and deprived environment, housing, women and of basic social and economic children development to name but a services. few. The central argument of the report rests on the notion that to integrate disaster risk reduction into mainstream development planning and governance, there is a need to start with analyzing existing development and governance patterns from the angle of risk.

A.2. This Report This report is an effort by Rural Development Policy Institute (RDPI) and Plan Pakistan to add value to the national and local level disaster risk

Page 2 OVERVIEW NEIGHBORING RISK

All the sampled districts have a appears to have substantially diversity of physiographic features. improved. The household sanitary The scarcity and abundance of water conditions in terms of availability of in these districts run side by side. The latrines inside the houses are also diversity of topography or physical found to have improved. There is features means diversity of marked increase in the rural environmental conditions and hence electrification across all the districts. natural hazards. Piped water supply is made available The diversity of topography or to a limited proportion of both urban physical features means A.3.3. The socioeconomic and and rural areas in the studied districts. diversity of environmental environmental conditions in the Almost half of the urban houses districts conditions and hence natural appear to have installed with motor hazards. The flood prone areas and coastal pumps while these are also making communities in general and desert their way in the well-off rural locations in particular are thinly households. populated, settlements are comprised of fewer houses and are scattered. The Over last one decade, the school population in all the districts is found enrolment and literacy figures for the to be markedly mis-balanced in favor sampled districts appear to have of the males. The higher male considerably improved. In all the population reflects social preferences districts the proportion of the of society in these districts which population that has actually The annual population growth continue to favour having and keeping completed the primary or higher levels rates in all the districts are well the male children. of education, on average, falls short of higher than the national and 10 percentage points to that of provincial averages. The annual population growth rates in population considered literate. all the districts are higher than the Likewise the proportion of literacy national and provincial averages. All among women, on average is 1/3rd to the sampled districts are rural in that among men. The literacy among nature. The proportion of urban rural women is 1/3rd to that among population in the sampled districts is their urban counterparts. The higher much lower than the national and level educational facilities do not provincial averages. The static match at all with the population size. proportion of urbanization in sampled The acute shortage of educational districts points to three important facilities especially for girls in the trends. First, the districts under study sampled districts means reduced The acute shortage of are overshadowed by neighboring opportunities for them to continue educational facilities especially urban centers. Second, in the urban their education. areas of these districts, social and for girls in the sampled districts economic services could not be The state of primary health care in all means reduced opportunities developed attractive enough to pull the selected districts is dotted with a for them to pursue their the population from their respective number of issues that affect especially education and social, economic rural homelands. Third, people the lives and health of women and and political development. continue to prefer staying in rural children. Over the years, the number areas and travel to towns and urban of public health facilities has increased settlements as and when a need may considerably in each district. However arise. people are found unable to make use of these facilities either due to The housing stock in both urban and accessibility to or by these services or rural areas in terms of use of due to lack of satisfactory care people permanent construction materials

Page 3 OVERVIEW NEIGHBORING RISK expect to receive from them. On the local population in the shape of average, 60-70% patients prefer to employment opportunities. consult private services compared to 20-25% who seek health care from the All the sampled districts have an public facilities. The use of mobile agrarian economy that absorbs more health facilities in the shape of lady than 60% of the economically active health workers also appears to be population of these districts. The negligible. A very small proportion, agriculture sector has overtly especially of rural women manages to important linkages with and impacts receive post natal and prenatal care on environment and is embedded with from a formal health service provider. a number of environmentally More than 80% of the deliveries take significant risks. Agriculture and its sub place at home usually with the sectors are most affected by any assistance of a relative or neighbor natural disaster that strikes. Any women or traditional birth attendants. hazard that strikes agriculture, in fact A very small proportion of pregnant affects the livelihoods of great women receive tetanus toxoid majority of the districts’ population injection, both in urban and rural and local and national economies. areas. The target of fully immunized The expansion in agriculture children population is far from being In all the districts the deforestation is activity has resulted in bringing achieved. going unabated. The river banks once even the riskiest of the places covered with thick riparian forests More than 60% of the population in have been razed to make way for the like river banks under districts under study relies on cultivation. Except Thatta, where 17% cultivation. Likewise in the agriculture and allied fields to earn area of the district is still under the desert regions, considering their living. The jobs in government mangroves, the forest cover in all the agriculture as the only and private sectors also cater to the remaining districts is far less than the productive use of land, the sand income earning needs of a national average. dunes have been denuded from considerable proportion of the natural vegetation cover households. Almost 3/4th of the The expansion in agriculture activity and government owned population opts for self employment. has resulted in bringing even the common grazing lands are About 1/5th of population is riskiest of the places like river banks being encroached. economically active and under cultivation. Likewise in the unemployment rates range between desert regions, considering agriculture 10-20%, varying from district to as the only productive use of land, the district. Despite being actively sand dunes have been denuded from engaged especially in the agricultural the natural vegetation cover and economy, women and children are not government owned common grazing recognized as the economically active lands are being encroached. The loss population and they are placed in the of natural vegetation has various category of “domestic workers' and dimensions. In the desert zone of Thal normally do not receive monetary and Nara, where summer cropping is compensation for their labor. All the hard to sustain, the land cleared for three districts of Sindh-Thatta, cropping remains devoid of any Khairpur and Ghotki, are rich in vegetation cover. The dust storms and mineral resources. However the strong winds that are a common natural resource riches of these summer phenomenon cause wind districts being benefitted by the erosion disturbing the productive soil federal government and private cover. The loss of natural vegetation industrial concerns, are not reaching has also resulted in loss of habitat for

Page 4 OVERVIEW NEIGHBORING RISK wild birds, reptiles and mammals as reported to have been residing at their well as loss of floral bio diversity. The respective locations for generations. reduction in natural fodder is now These communities have been braving being compensated with stall feeding the hazards and living with various of animals with fodder crops. The risks for long. In the due course of need to grow fodder has produced a time they have developed a certain competing need on the lands that can level of resistance and coping otherwise be used for growing crops mechanisms that are guaranteeing the for human consumption. The razing of continuation of their lives and riverine forests has resulted in livelihoods, no matter how fragile they The need to grow fodder has increased river erosion and loss of have proved to be in these riskiest of produced a competing demand organic matter that is taken away by the locations. on the lands that can otherwise receding flood water. be used for growing crops for The surveyed communities are human consumption. An overall shortage of canal water affected by a variety of hazards which prevails in every district. The shortfall have serious impacts on their lives, is being compensated with an assets and means of livelihoods. increased pumping of ground water Floods, heavy rains, strong In the selected districts, on through the installation of private tube winds/storms and frost are among the average, a 10% increase in the wells. At many a places outside the prominent ones. Most of the use of chemical fertilizers per Indus plain, the ground water is communities surveyed are residing at brackish and when extracted brings locations that are consistently affected annum is noted. with it salts that result in increasing by floods, heavy seasonal rains and the salinity of soils. The farmers are storms. The coastal communities in found complaining of falling water Thatta live with the risks being posed tables. The expansion in agriculture is by cyclones, storm surges, high tidal being fueled with an increasing use of activity and sea intrusion. In the due course of time chemical fertilizers and pesticides. In communities have developed a the selected districts, on average, a Damage to houses or shelters is noted certain level of resistance and 10% increase in the use of chemical to be the most common impact of the coping mechanisms that are fertilizers per annum is noted. An hazards followed by damage to crops. guaranteeing the continuation extensive mechanization in the form 70% households reported that their of their lives and livelihoods, no of tractors' use has happened and only houses are affected in case floods, matter how fragile they have few farmers can be seen employing rains, storms or cyclones (Thatta) proved to be in these riskiest of the farm animals for preparing lands, strike their settlements. 58% the locations. any more. One dimension of the households report that their own increasing mechanization is the crops or those grown in the reduced opportunities for farm settlements are affected. Some 40% labourers. The production of minor households reported that they find Damage to houses or shelters crops like barley, millet, rapeseed and the productivity of their lands is noted to be the most mustard that are quite resilient to dry declining. Damages to livestock are common impact of the hazards conditions, is either static or has also reported by considerably high followed by damage to crops. declined. The water intensive crops number of households. especially sugarcane is widely being cultivated. The issue of water logging Most of the riverine communities or and salinity in parts of identified settlements are found to have districts has become severe. compact grouping of dozens of houses and larger population sizes when A.3.4. The neighbors of risks: State of compared to those residing in the surveyed communities desert locations. The desert All the communities surveyed, communities are residing in small Page 5 OVERVIEW NEIGHBORING RISK clusters of houses loosely grouped residing in 3 or 4 room houses. A small together. proportion of 3.5% households are living in big houses comprising 5 or The people at all the locations are more rooms. found favoring large families and preference for having male children. Most of the households at the The joint family system is loosening its surveyed locations opt to defecate in The joint family system is grip. This trend is reflected in the large open. The latrines inside or adjacent loosening its grip. This trend is number of households reported to to housing structures are available to reflected in the large number of have young household heads aging less than 1/5th of the households. households reported to have between 20 to 40 years. 48% More than 4/5th of the households young household heads aging household heads fall in this age have an access to an in-house water between 20 to 40 years. bracket. 98% of the households are source, generally a hand pump. The headed by males in the surveyed rest of the households either bring communities. 33% population age 10 water from an outside source or years and below while 55% belong to purchase it from water suppliers like the age group 18 years and below. The tankers. This is a particular situation in average household size in the Thatta. 7% houses have an access to surveyed locations is noted to be 5.8 motor pumps. Not a single location persons per household. Like the has a piped water supply. 41% overall district trends, the male households at the surveyed locations Most of the housing stock population in all the locations is higher are living without electricity from the especially at the flood and than the female one. There are 119 national grid. Only 3% households cyclone prone locations has an male children against every 100 have an access to the land-line phone architecture of poverty and female children. This ratio in the age facility. Compared to this, 39% fear. Locally and cheaply or group 18 and below is noted to be households are using mobile phones. freely available materials, local 1.17 or 117 male children against 15 % household are owning a TV set or climates and hazards and every 100 female children/youth. a radio or both. resource-less-ness of the residents appear to determine Most of the housing stock especially at Almost 1/3rd population in the the housing conditions at these the flood and cyclone (in case of surveyed communities is economically locations. Thatta) prone locations has an active (EA) or reported to contribute architecture of poverty and fear. to the household incomes. The EAP is Locally and cheaply or freely available comprised of 85% males and 15% materials, local climates and hazards, females. 28.7% of EAP is comprised of and resource-less-ness of the children aging 11-18 years. This residents appear to determine the economically active children housing conditions at these locations. population contains 84% boys and In the riverine locations and those at 16% girls. 24.4% male and 5.4% The housing structures are the risk of hill torrents, people are female children aging 11-18, at the gradually constructed and found to have constructed their surveyed locations are economically improved over the time as and houses with an incremental approach. active. A considerably high proportion when the perception of risks The housing structures are gradually of women and girls in evades, resources permit and constructed and improved over the Jampur/Rajanpur were reported to construction materials are time as and when the perception of have a contribution in the household available. risks evades, resources permit and economies or incomes. construction materials are available. More than half or 53% of the Agriculture is the major livelihood households in the surveyed source for half of the households. communities are living in single room Menial and seasonal labour inside the houses, 29% in 2-room while 14% are village, in the neighbouring towns or

Page 6 OVERVIEW NEIGHBORING RISK other cities of the country is the prevalence. livelihood option for 1/3rd of the A.3.4.1. Major Issues households. The government and private jobs absorb a small portion or Isolation and Vulnerability: The flood 5% of the household heads. 47% prone communities in general and households reported to have an deltaic and desert communities in ownership of productive or non particular are physically marginalized. productive lands while 41% The physical isolation of the hazard households are landless. Livestock prone communities was noted to have appears to hold an extremely transformed into their social,economic important place in the livelihood and and political marginalization which in household food security strategies of turn has rendered them unable to households. 86% households own reach the centers of administrative some kind of livestock especially and financial powers that be. This was buffaloes, cattle, goat and sheep. found to have resulted in minimal coverage of these communities by The surveyed communities have a social and economic services available dismal state of education and literacy to 'normal' areas. The lack of services when compared to education and especially of health and education and literacy data of their respective road connectivity was noted to have districts, provinces and the overall been contributing heavily in keeping national figures. The literacy among their marginalization, vulnerability and the population aged 10+ has been poverty intact. The lack of services especially recorded as 21.6%. 37% males and of health and education and 8.6% females of this age group are The most vulnerable of vulnerable: road connectivity is noted to found to be literate. In 8 out of 20 The extremely vulnerable have been contributing heavily communities, the literacy among the communities were found to be those in keeping communities’ females was found to be zero. While at residing inside the protective bunds marginalization, vulnerability two locations the literacy in the whole that have been constructed on both and poverty intact. population was noted to be zero. 65% sides of the river Indus to contain its household heads in the surveyed flood water; those residing at the households are illiterate while 18% banks of the rivers (Indus, Chenab and have completed primary level Satluj) or between a river's branches; education. those residing inside the creeks created between the mouths of river 7.4% males and 7.7% females are Indus; and those residing deep into caught up in such health the deserts. disorders/diseases that households consider as being fatal. A worryingly The missing state: Some communities high proportion of households surveyed are completely living on their reported to have one or more own without any mark of state's members suffering from life existence in terms of its social threatening diseases especially infrastructure like schools, health tuberculosis and hepatitis etc. 1/5th facilities, roads or transport and and 1/4th of the households energy infrastructure. complained of these diseases respectively. Seasonal fevers, The top priorities: Road, education diarrhoea among infants and children, and health are noted to be among the and pneumonia are also common top priorities of the communities. disorders while skin diseases were found to have an unexpectedly low The housing dilemma: Housing is

Page 7 OVERVIEW NEIGHBORING RISK noted to be one of the biggest visible. The construction of protective determinants of communities' bunds, drainage programs, water vulnerability to hazards. At all the distribution arrangements and mega sites, most of the housing stock is infrastructure projects like canal, roads composed of adobe structures which and railway tracks have contributed to normally fail to withstand floods, the issues like flooding, river erosion, storms, heavy rains and strong winds. water contamination, and degradation Due to risks like floods and cyclones, etc. The important examples in this for instance, communities do not regard are deltaic communities construct permanent housing or suffering in the hands of non improve the existing stock, and due to compliance of Inter provincial water Some communities surveyed poor housing their vulnerability accord of 1991, Katchi and Ranny are completely living on their increases. The landlessness and fear of canals, and drainage of saline and own without any mark of eviction are also found to be deterring contaminated water from upstream to state's existence in terms of its many households to construct the downstream etc. social infrastructure like permanent housing structures. schools, health facilities, roads Living on the edges: The Rivers or transport and energy Livelihoods and Vulnerability: There is normally act as natural physical a direct relationship between boundaries between the districts. The infrastructure. Individuals' and households' livelihood communities living along the rivers are options and vulnerability to disasters/ thus living on the edges of the districts hazards. The farmers, fishermen, and are thus away from centers of livestock keepers etc were found to be political and administrative powers. The farmers, fishermen, the most vulnerable among all the The riverine locations being isolated livestock keepers etc were livelihood groups as their income are normally found providing safer found to be most vulnerable sources are exposed to a variety of abodes to criminals. The river being among all the livelihood groups natural and manmade hazards. the boundary between the districts as their income sources are also provides easier and shortest exposed to a variety of natural Absence and excess of water: Water possible path to criminals to move and manmade hazards. management for irrigation and between the districts to dodge police. drinking is most complex of the The passage and presence of criminal complex issues. In the desert, hilly elements has also contributed to the tracts and in the delta, the absence or under development of these The rivers normally act as scarcity of water for irrigation and communities as outside agencies and natural physical boundaries drinking is affecting people's service providers (teachers, medical between the districts. The livelihoods and health, badly. In the staff/vaccination staff etc) hesitate to flood prone sites and canal irrigated travel to these locations. communities living along the areas the poor water management at rivers are thus living on the the community level and by the state Engineering Solutions are favoured edges of the districts and are has contributed to the emergence of and engineering miracles are thus away from political and many issues like falling water tables, expected: Communities at all the administrative powers/centres. contamination of drinking water, and riverine and coastal locations are water infrastructure (like spurs, canals) found favouring the engineering induced flooding. solutions like diversion of river's course, construction of protection The politics of water management bunds, spurs etc. The solutions and 'development' induced disasters involving the natural resources' (Disaster footprints of development) : management were generally not At number of sites the political suggested. dimension of water management and distribution works are markedly The social disasters: Tribal conflicts

Page 8 OVERVIEW NEIGHBORING RISK have come forth as one of the major threats posed to communities, A.3.5. Children’s voices and especially in Ghotki and Rajanpur. contributions are not childish Over the years, tens of precious The discussions with children in the human lives have been lost throwing vulnerable communities revealed that The passage and presence of the families (especially women and they posses sufficient knowledge and criminal elements in the children) of those involved (murderers excellent articulation of their riverine areas has also and murdered, for instance) into community and household social and contributed to the under abject poverty and consistent social economic conditions, risks they face development of these and economic vulnerability. The and services they need or expect. communities as outside communities in Khairpur, Ghotki and agencies and service providers Rajanpur also complained of the At all the flood prone locations (teachers, medical Sardari system as mother of all the ills children told that their memories with staff/vaccination staff etc) perpetuating their poverty and floods are dotted with damage to the hesitate to travel to these underdevelopment. houses, displacement, insecurity, loss locations. of livestock, food insecurity and Absence of non-state actors: At all but economic distress they and their couple of surveyed locations, no non parent have to face in the aftermath of government or community based a disaster event. organizations are found working. At all the flood prone locations, Migration-the last resort: The children recommended the consistent vulnerability to hazards and construction of bunds as a way to In some cases the sustainable risk has exhausted some communities' arrest flooding. In all the surveyed disaster risk reduction needs capacities to adapt. They are thus locations, children are found to have mega initiatives both structural forced to migrate mostly to urban an important role; in household and non structural involving areas. The vulnerability to disasters in economies as domestic workers or huge finances. Community rural settlements is thus contributing even active income earners, in the based disaster risk reduction to urbanization. evacuation (especially of livestock) approaches will not be able to and taking care of younger brothers Expectations from the government and sisters, in the early warnings, and provide the sustainable are still alive: At all the surveyed in the reconstruction of houses, solutions in such cases. locations communities are found rehabilitation of lands/fields etc. The having expectations from the children at all the locations strongly government to step in for improving voiced for provision of schools, health their living conditions. The hazard facilities, playgrounds and toys and in protection schemes being expected some cases economic opportunities and proposed by the communities for their parents. At the desert site in involve heavy investments that only Layyah, child shepherds government can proceed with. recommended/demanded the Children in the vulnerable construction of refuge places/shelters communities posses sufficient Community based disaster risk to get protected from the dust storms knowledge and excellent reduction has a limited scope in some and installation of hand pumps for articulation of their community cases: In some cases the sustainable them and their livestock. and household social and disaster risk reduction needs mega economic conditions, risks they initiatives both structural and non The child and youth focused disaster face and services they need or structural involving huge finances. risk reduction programs, being expect. The community based disaster risk maintained at one surveyed location, reduction approach will not be able to are found bearing good fruits. provide the sustainable solutions in such cases.

Page 9 OVERVIEW NEIGHBORING RISK

A.3.6. Responding to hazards and The template approach: Both the disaster: The government and civil flood fighting plans and disaster society way management plans have been prepared using more or less similar DRR is not a priority: In all the districts templates. Although there exist strong the 'Disaster Risk Reduction' is noted reasons to do so, the mere following to be not among the priorities of the of the certain templates is like local governments. This is reflected adopting 'one size fits all' approach. from the amount of funds the district The conventional plan making exercise governments have allocated in the does not analyse the local situations, current budgets for ‘emergencies’ needs, risks, capacities, and priorities (without mentioning the 'disaster and thus remains unable to situations'). contextualize the plan with local requirements. Reactive approaches continue to dominate: The main disaster response Institutional barriers: In all the instrument and strategy of all the districts it was observed that the district governments in the sampled district governments lack trained and districts is 'Flood Fighting or Flood motivated staff to work on Disaster Contingency Plans' which are in fact Risk Reduction in a regular manner. In the management strategies, as they most of the districts, for their being outline the resources available with underdeveloped regions, the high and responsibilities of different local government officials generally do The conventional plan making departments and officials in case a not like to be posted there. The exercise does not analyse the flood strikes. important posts either remain vacant local situations, needs, risk, or are filled with officials not capacities, and priorities and A mere routine work: The preparation motivated enough to adopt and are thus remain unable to of Disaster Risk Reduction or Disaster pursue long term development contextualize the plan with Management Plans as has been asked agendas. The non availability of local requirements. Local Governments by NDMA, is being development funds, an overall taken as a routine official activity environment of uncertainty about imposed from the top having no their future, and untoward relevance with the local priorities. interventions in the development decisions by political elite, are also No financial plans: The Flood Fighting observed to have demoralized the Plans and Disaster Management Plans local government officials. are not supported by the financial plans thus leaving district An inconvenient truth: Owing to their governments with having vague plan being in-charge of land management, documents. This appears to be one of the revenue officials are responsible the reasons why district governments for the preparation, execution and remain unable to allocate sufficient coordination of Flood Fighting and funds for emergencies in their own District Disaster Risk Management budgets and in case of emergencies Plans, and damage assessments etc in have to resort to cutting the all the districts. The police are made development budgets or look either to in-charge of maintaining law and order Provincial or to Federal Government situation in case of emergencies and for the emergency funds and relief early warnings. It is to be noted that operations. the revenue and police are two of those departments considered most

Page 10 OVERVIEW NEIGHBORING RISK corrupt and inefficient in Pakistan. and governance is still a distant Further the revenue department does dream. The development programs not have a kind of training for land-use often conflict with one another and planning and situation management in designed and implemented in isolation general and disaster management in either leaving large areas un-served or particular. creating overlapping and duplication. A holistic document that could have Capacities of Civil Society outlined all the hazards in a district Organizations: The local civil society and the development schemes having organizations, with few exceptions, in direct or indirect relation with them, is the surveyed district are small, not available. sometime consisting of only one individual and are voluntary Sensitization on environment and organizations. Many of them have water: an interprovincial comparison: never received funding from any The discussion with local governments formal agency and are being run on and civil society organizations in contributions from members or those Punjab suggests that a general state of from philanthropists. Education and oblivion exists among them about the health are two key sectors these water requirements of the organizations are found working for. downstream and environmental Except few organizations in Thatta, repercussions of water scarcity on Layyah, Muzaffargarh and Rajanpur, Sindh. In contrast a general perception generally the civil society of being made deprived of their water organizations working in the identified rights by the upstream (Punjab) districts lack an understanding of prevails among the local governments disaster management. One possible and civil society organizations in Sindh. reason for this is found to be DRR The understanding of environmental being a relatively very new concept for and political dimensions of inter civil society organizations in Pakistan. provincial and inter-district water This is one of the reasons for their not management was found to be much being working in/with the disaster stronger among civil society prone communities. organizations and local governments in Sindh compared to their Inter stakeholder misconceptions, counterparts in Punjab. suspicions and lack of trust: A general environment of misconception, Lack of public participation: Ever since suspicion and lack of trust generally coming into being of current political prevails among the stakeholders. The setup at federal and provincial levels, local governments in all the districts the elected representatives of local are found generally not satisfied with governments have been made defunct the working of the non government and the local bureaucracy is in full organizations and vice versa. The charge of administration. Neither the media people are found blaming Flood Fighting Plans nor are the government and non government District Disaster Risk Management organizations for embezzlement of Plans presented before or discussed by funds and ineffectiveness. the district councils. Resultantly the planning exercise has become merely Absence of holistic vision and another routine and ad hoc instrument programs: The incorporation of of getting or showing things done. disaster risk reduction into mainstream development planning Page 11 OVERVIEW NEIGHBORING RISK

The capacity building programs are complaint management etc. not enough: In various districts the local government officials have Incorporate DRR in general and child attended training programs (mostly centred approaches in particular into arranged by UNDP, NDMA etc). A mainstream development planning marked improvement in their and projects by developing SOP's and understanding of DRR concepts can be research and planning tools through observed. However it was also which it could be ensured that while observed that these officials when try designing the development schemes at to convert their newly got knowledge district level, the concepts of child into practice, they encounter a number centred disaster risk reduction are of limitations including institutional incorporated and taken care of. barriers, lack of funds and above all lack of feedback and support from the Channelize some of unspent CCB funds high-ups. into community based disaster risk reduction by intelligent planning and A.4. Ideas for Action building coordination mechanism with the district governments. More research is needed on issues like non conventional hazards, views and Long term presence, commitment, capacities of lower tiered local Neither the Flood Fighting patience and an across the board government officials, local knowledge Plans nor the District Disaster relation building with stakeholders and and coping capacities of communities Risk Management Plans are and different segments (especially especially with second and third tiered presented before or discussed women and children). local government officials is needed to by the district councils. work in the districts. Resultantly the planning Consistent support needs to be exercise has become merely provided to the Local Governments for The response of the high-ups (DCO or another routine and ad hoc the preparation of flood fighting plans District Nazim etc) alone should not be instrument of getting or and District Disaster Risk Management the only factor to select a district for showing things done. Plans. This support should be in shape future works by national and of training, feedback, and working in international NGOs. A broad based and partnership for the conception, multi indicator analysis tool that preparation, execution, management, incorporates vulnerability of a district, monitoring and evaluation of disaster prevalence of hazards, local risk management plans. governments' existing and future Broad based district forums should be programs, overall state of human established for inter-stakeholder development and potential of local dialogues/communication, civil society organizations to name but coordination and decision making to a few should guide this decision. ward-off misconceptions, suspicions and lack of trust and to bring in place Cooperation protocols need to be transparency and a culture of established, besides NDMA, with the cooperation and joint working. local governments, relevant provincial government departments like relief Harness the potential of media and commissions, PDMAs and environment civil society organizations by extensive protection agencies, local government capacity building programs in the area and rural development departments, of disaster reporting, communication, and Ministry of Environment et al.

Page 12 OVERVIEW NEIGHBORING RISK

Strategic technical support can be development schemes. The provided, to begin with, to the local development profiling can be governments to improve the existing undertaken easily as local government flood fighting and disaster hold a lot of information and this management plans by incorporating information need to be reflected into GIS and topographic maps showing the the planning decisions. number and locations of vulnerable points and settlements. The existing The district specific development disaster management plans can be guidelines should be evolved which improved with a little effort by can help in scrutinizing the documenting the existing physical, development interventions for the social and economic state of risks they carry. Planning manuals have vulnerable communities. This target already been developed by the can be achieved by operationalizing provincial Planning and Development the provision in Local Government Departments. The provisions of these Ordinance and those provided by manuals , the guidelines developed by NDMA for district disaster NDMA for district level DRR planning and provisions of LGO 2001, Plan's management plans. The development audit should experiences of Child Centred help local governments develop Community Development etc can be Turn a challenge into opportunity: The their targets (on the patterns of merged to evolve district specific and decade's old mind built up of local MDGs) and measure their children sensitive DRR planning government officials make them think performance. The development manuals. for ready-made solutions. This audit will be a useful tool to challenge can be turned into an assess the development density Idea of integrated development opportunity by developing District and pockets of planning needs to be propagated as it specific development, hazards, underdevelopment within a is also the message of both HFA and environment and vulnerability district and hence will help in NDMF. profiles/atlases and tools for the allocation of resources and undertaking a development profiling development schemes. and development and risk reduction The construction and hydrology planning. related works especially flood management schemes, should be The development profiling should pursed with great caution. The bring forth inventories of development hydrology related interventions should assets like roads, schools, dispensaries not be taken unless they are studied in and so on. This development profiling a broader spectrum. should be supported with maps and should be made available to the public. Youth/children volunteer group or The development profiles should also task forces should be established. The help local governments develop their investment on and organization of targets (on the patterns of MDGs) and children and youth task forces will measure their performance. The contribute to improve the quality of development profiling will be a useful education, the value they get out of it, tool to assess the development density and also to institutionalize and direct and pockets of underdevelopment their potential. The children or youth within a district and hence will help in task forces can be involved in the allocation of resources and improving early warning systems,

Page 13 OVERVIEW NEIGHBORING RISK plantation at the riverbanks, environmental education, and community work and so on.

Value addition to economic contributions and capacities of women and men in general and children and youth in particular can and should be made by imparting them with useful livelihood earning skills which will contribute to reducing household poverty and thus increasing their options to diversify their livelihoods and reducing their vulnerability.

Tackle the vulnerability with a human development approach by increasing people's choices so they are not left with limited options of staying at dangerous sites and adopt risky construction technologies and livelihood strategies. This is a long term Value addition to economic goal that will slowly but surely contributions and capacities of contribute to sustainable risk women and men in general and reduction. children and youth in particular, can and should be made. The strategic entry points for risk reduction include improving house construction technologies, improving people's physical mobility so they could access or be accessed by the social service providers, improving health infrastructure or at least primary health care services, and improving people's livelihoods.

Page 14 OVERVIEW NEIGHBORING RISK

1. Asif Kazi, Flood Control and Management, 2005 (A background paper developed for Pakistan Water

Economy Running Dry, The World Bank, Oxford University Press, 2006) S

2. http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=169849 E 3. http://www.defence.pk/forums/economy-development/27182-war-terror-costs-pakistan-35-billion-

reports.html T

4. Ministry of Environment, Government of Pakistan, National Sustainable Development Strategy,

O Islamabad, 2009

5. Hassan A and Ameneh A, Environmental Repercussions of Development in Pakistan,OPP-RTI, Karachi,

N 1993

6. Population estimates taken from Punjab Development Statistics 2005 and Development Statistics of

Sindh 2006 D Notes:

N The district specific development statistics have been cited in;

A 1. Federal Bureau of Statistics, Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement Survey, 2006-07,

Islamabad, 2008

2. Planning and Development Department Punjab, Punjab Development Statistics 2005 S

3. Sindh Bureau of Statistics, Development Statistics of Sindh 2006, Karachi, 2006

E

C

N

E

R

E

F

E R

Page 15 NEIGHBORING RISK

Section 1: Introduction

1.1. The Context Disaster Management Authorities on Pakistan is prone to a multitude of national, provincial and district levels, natural and man-made hazards including floods, droughts, cyclones, 4. Formulation of the National Disaster earthquakes, environmental Management Framework (NDMF), and degradation and climate change, to name but a few. These hazards have 5. Instructions and guidelines by been turning to disasters of varying NDMA for the preparation of national, magnitudes in the past, affecting the provincial and district/municipal-level lives and livelihoods, mainly of the disaster risk management plans. poor. These disasters continue to frustrate the development efforts and Besides these disaster-specific built environment, and challenge poor initiatives, there are existing policies, people's and governments’ capacities plans and programs that have direct to respond. relevance to impacting poverty, reducing the vulnerability and disaster 1.1.1. Policy and Institutional risk reduction, hence contributing to Environment sustainable environment and human A general understanding among the development. A list of such policies public, politicians, elected and documents is given in table 1.1 representatives and bureaucracy has developed in recent years, of the 1.1.2. The Real Challenge devastating impacts disasters have a Despite these encouraging potential to create, especially after the achievements and availability of a calamitous October 2005 earthquake range of policies, the conventional in Kashmir and NWFP that took more approach of understanding and than 73,000 lives, rendered 2.8 million responding to calamities still prevails people shelter-less and inflicted losses in Pakistan, like rest of the world. This of more than 5.2 billion dollars (1). approach is obsessed with 'emergency management' and 'reaction' and A need was thus felt across the considers disaster-affected people government and non-government mere victims who need to be provided quarters to institutionalize disaster only with relief. The concerned response by putting in place disaster- government agencies respond or react specific institutions, policies and only when a disaster situation has programs. Some important initiatives developed; meaning disasters are in this regard include: actually waited to happen.

1. Pakistan's ratification of Hyogo 1.1.3. The Alternative Perspective of Framework for Action (HFA), 2005- Disaster Management 2015, For almost three decades the above- mentioned dominant perspective is 2. Promulgation of National Disaster being challenged by intellectuals and Management Ordinance, 2007, professionals. They are passionately trying to replace it with an alternative 3. Constitution of the National perspective that focuses on social, Disaster Management Council and economic, political and environmental

Page 16 Introduction

SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

Table 1.1 DRR relevant policies

S Sector International Covenant/Policy/Program/Documents

E Hyogo Framework for Action:2005 - 15 I Disaster

Management National Disaster Management Framework C

Guidelines for the preparation of District Disaster Management Plans I National Sustainable Development Strategy NSDS 2009 L National Environment Policy 2005

National Environment Action Plan 1997 O Convention on Biodiversity 1992, and Biodiversity Action Plan for

P Pakistan 2000

Environment Convention on Combating Desertification 1992, National Action

T Programme to Combat Desertification in Pakistan, 2002 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992, N Pakistan’s First National Communication on Climate Change 2003

A National Sanitation Policy 2006 Draft National Drinking Water Policy V Mid Term Development Framework (MTDF), 2005- 10

E Millennium Development Goals and Pakistan’s MDG Priorities, National

MDG Progress Report 2006 L Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper

E National Housing Policy 2001 National Women Development Policy R Development

National Policy for Children Tenth Five Year Plan, Approach Paper 2009 R National Health Policy

R National Education Policy

Vision (2030), 2007 D

Box: 1.1: Eight principles established in National Disaster Management Framework

1. Promote multi-stakeholder, multi-sectoral and multi-disciplinary approaches, 2. Reduce vulnerability of most vulnerable social groups, 3. Strengthen community and local level risk reduction capacities, 4. Combine scientific and people's knowledge, 5. Develop culturally, socially, economically and environmentally relevant technologies, 6. Strengthen sustainable livelihood practices, 7. Acquire specific capacities in view of the hazard-risk profile of the area and country, and; 8. Work with other countries, and the international community to promote disaster risk reduction.

Source: NDMA, National Disaster Management Framework (2)

Page 17 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK causes and dynamic pressures that Box 1.2: Two ways of looking at disasters contribute to turning hazards into Dominant or Conventional Alternative Perspective disasters and keeping people's Perspective vulnerability to these disasters intact. Disasters/Conflicts are viewed as Disasters/conflicts are seen as part The alternative perspective isolated events. of the normal process of emphasizes taking disaster development. management as an issue of Linkages with conditions in society Analyzinglinkages with society governance and development during normal times are not always during normal times is fundamental planning. This perspective is slowly but analyzed. to understanding gradually making inroads into disasters/conflicts. international covenants, declarations, Technical/law and order solutions Emphasis on solutions that change national policies and especially in non- are dominant. relationships/structures in society. governmental organizations’ The objective is to reduce people’s programs. vulnerability and strengthen their capacity. The National Disaster Management Framework and the Hyogo Framework Centralized institutions dominate in Decentralized institutions dominate for Action clearly spell out the need to intervention strategies and there is in intervention strategies. make disaster risk reduction part of less participation of people, who Participation of people paramount the overall development planning and are treated as ‘victims’. in intervention strategies; people programs at national and local levels treated as ‘partners’ in for attaining the goal of sustainable development. development. Implementing agencies are less Accountability and transparency accountable. are given utmost importance. The local governments being the first responders to any emergency, hold an Intervention is made when a Focus is placed on preparedness extremely important place in any disaster occurs. and risk reduction. disaster risk reduction strategy or The objective of intervention is to Disasters/conflicts are viewed as program proposed or being return to the situation that opportunities for social implemented. The National Disaster prevailed before the disaster event. transformation. Management Framework stresses the Source: Duryog Nivaran (3) need to formulate district-specific risk reduction plans to make local disaster risk reduction plans and governments and other stakeholders strategies. Plan intends to add value respond to natural and human by promoting and advocating child- induced hazards in an organized, risk reduction approaches and effective and coordinated manner. It strategies. Plan also decided that also emphasizes the need to be taking River Indus as a reference line, proactive and make institutions and most vulnerable and underdeveloped vulnerable communities prepared for districts lying along it in South Punjab any emergency situation. and Sindh should be sampled and studied as a first step. Rural 1.2. This Report Development Policy Institute (RDPI)- a In the backdrop of this policy and research and policy organization was institutional environment, Plan commissioned to undertake Pakistan- a child-centred international development and vulnerability development organization, decided to assessment of these districts. augment the efforts of Government of Pakistan for preparing district-specific

Page 18 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

Neighboring Risk is an outcome of this advocated in this report can be put in assessment. It aims at mapping the practice within the existing policy natural and human induced hazards provisions, financial capacities of the prevailing in these districts and governments at different tiers, and understanding people's capacities institutional arrangements. against and vulnerability to these hazards. It has a special focus on the 1.2.2. The Scope most affected groups that suffer the The reader would find Neighboring most in any disaster event- children, Risk indicative in its analysis and women, the elderly, people with recommendations. Its scope is disabilities and marginalized restricted to presenting an overview of households in a particular community. the natural and human-made hazards and physical/environmental, social, 1.2.1. The Conceptual Framework economic, political and institutional Neighboring Risk employs the conditions prevailing in the studied alternative perspective and takes stock area. It brings forth broader of the Hyogo Framework for Action, recommendations that can be National Disaster Management narrowed down and specified while Framework and Local Government preparing actual plans and designing Ordinance 2001 besides incumbent development programs and projects national policies on environment and for reducing the risks of disasters. It socioeconomic development as given should thus be taken as a flexible in table 1.1. The central argument of framework to analyze hazards and the report rests on the notion that to people's vulnerability and capacities as integrate disaster risk reduction into part of the planning process. The mainstream development planning structure of this report matches the and governance, there is a need to one proposed by National Disaster start with analyzing existing Management Authority for preparing development and governance patterns the district-specific disaster risk from the angle of risk. management plans. The specific scope of the report includes; The report proposes to reduce the risks of disaster by adopting a multi- 1. Developing detailed profiles of the pronged strategy. The components of sample districts with special reference this strategy include integrated to existing and potential hazards. The development and disaster risk profiles include, besides other details, reduction planning, preparedness and poverty/development indicators improving environmental and human readily recognized by all development conditions for people concerned.(The detailed district currently, or expected to be, living profiles are separately available on the with risks. It strongly recommends CD rom enclosed with this report). making children, youth and women part of the disaster risk reduction 2. Identification of areas and efforts by first acknowledging their communities at risk within sample capacities and role in, and then districts. The study highlights the enhancing the same for different nature of these risks and dimensions stages of disaster management cycle of vulnerabilities, targeted including early warning, preparedness, communities live with. relief, recovery, reconstruction and rehabilitation. All the strategies

Page 19 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

3. Identification of the civil society Fig 1.1: The six step research process groups and organizations having an Designing the preliminary inquiry and experience of or a potential for taking s sampling framework part in disaster management efforts in the targeted districts. s

e Studying all the 22 districts lying along river Indus in Punjab 4. Capacity assessment of the and Sindh with reference to multiplicity of hazards, level of incumbent local regimes and civil c vulnerability, level of human development and location society/community organizations with special reference to disaster risk o

management and response. r Sampling of six districts for detailed assessment plus a district (Vehari) neighboring river Satluj in Punjab 1.3. The Research Process P

An integrated six-step research process was employed to complete the study. The details are shown in fig 1.1. Special h Consultations with respective local governments and care was taken to keep the whole civil society in the sampled districts for a preliminary

c process objective, participatory and hazard, vulnerability and capacity assessment consultative. Keeping in view the scope, r

geographical coverage, context, follow- a up interventions that Plan Pakistan Survey of some of the most vulnerable communities intends to make, and deliverables being e in the sampled districts expected, a flexible research framework was designed. All the 22 districts lying s along River Indus in Punjab and Sindh e Refining of the survey results by sharing the research were studied with reference to findings with district governments and civil society

multiplicity of hazards, level of R vulnerability, human development and geographical settings. Three districts each from South Punjab and Sindh were Fig 1.2: Frequency of disasters in Pakistan, 1954 - 2004 sampled while one district Vehari lying along river Satluj in Punjab was also Wind storm 16% included for detailed assessment as Plan Pakistan is working on a number of child-centred development projects in the district for nearly eight years. Flood 33% Drought 4% Having completed the sampling or selection process, consultative meetings were held with civil society Slides 10% organizations, media professionals and respective local governments in each Insect infection 1% district to draw preliminary hazard maps and a stakeholder capacity assessment. In the light of these Extreme Earthquake 18% consultative meetings, the research Temperature 12% tools and framework for community survey were refined and adjusted Epidemic 6% accordingly. Two to three hazard prone communities in each district were Source: SUPARCO (4)

Page 20 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

Table 1.2: The sampling process

s Districts *Frequency *Frequency of appearing

Mianwali 2 as the most affected/ s Bhakkar 2 underdeveloped/deprived/

e Layyah 3 vulnerable district in different Muzaffargarh 10 rankings using different

c Dera Ghazi Khan 8 sets of criteria

Rajanpur 8 o

Rahimyar Khan 1 r Jacobabad** 5 **District recently broken into Shikarpur 1 P two or more districts. By rule

Larkana** 3 no such district was sampled Ghotki 2 owing to foreseeable g Sukkur 2 administrative issues especially Khairpur 3

n data confusions.

i Naushahro Feroze 1

l Nawabshah 2

Dadu** 4 ***Recently constituted districts. p Hyderabad** 1 By rule no such districts were Thatta 8 sampled/selected owing to m Kashmore Kandhkot*** Data not available non availability of data and

Jamshoro*** Data not available foreseeable administrative a Matiari*** Data not available confusions.

Tando Muhammad Khan*** Data not available S

Fig: 1.3. Population affected by disasters in Pakistan

30000000 26008078 25000000

20000000

15000000

10000000

5000000 2269300 380237 24212 0 Drought Earthquake Epidemic Flood

Source: SUPARCO (5)

Page 21 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK surveyed. Based upon findings of the Map 1.1: Sampled districts consultative meetings, community surveys and review of development and vulnerability indicators, district- specific preliminary reports were prepared and shared with the respective local governments.

1.3.1. The Sampling Procedure 1 Details of the process adopted for 2 4 sampling/selection of the districts are 3 given in annexure 3. Ten research reports prepared by government and 5 non-government organizations ranking 6 the districts of Pakistan using different criteria were reviewed. The results for each district were summarized in a 7 way that a comparative situation could emerge as shown in table 1.3 The summary of the whole process is shown in table 1.2. Map 1.2: Sampled district and 1.4. Why River Indus and its their location with respect to rivers Neighboring Districts ? Geographically, Pakistan can be divided into four broader zones: northern mountains, western s m highlands, eastern deserts and Indus u u ehl d r J plains containing River Indus and its n e ab I iv n 4 R he tributaries. This last-mentioned zone r r C i e ve v 1. Layyah v i a i R R provides most favorable conditions for er R iv human habitation and for this fact 2. Muzaffargarh R more than 70 per cent of Pakistan's 3. Rajanpur Series 1 population resides in this zone (7). tluj r Sa Indus is the only river that irrigates Rive Sindh and makes the life line connecting it with Punjab. Flooding in river Indus and its eastern and 4. Vehari western tributaries is the recurring natural hazard in this region. 5. Ghotki

6. Khairpur The land along Indus is among the most fertile tracts in the country, but the irony of the fact is that residents of riverside areas are among the most neglected ones. The communities residing in these areas are politically 7. Thatta marginalised, physically isolated and deprived of basic social and economic Source: (Base Map): Oxford Atlas for Pakistan (6) services.

Page 22 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

Table 1.3. Selection/shortlisting of the identified riverine (along the Indus) Districts in South Punjab and Sindh

Human Most Deprived Districts Ranking of Ranking of the Districts Falling in Districts Districts Falling in Districts falling in Districts most Districts most Development District (Overall Falling in Districts on the Districts on the the list of Least Falling in the the list of Districts the list of affected by affected by Index Ranking Provincial Rank the List of basis of Z - Sum basis of WFS Developed Areas list of most vulnerable mainly extremely/ floods in 2005 Floods in 2007 (A) Order) out of 34 Ten Most Technique. Technique. (F) vulnerable to flooding very food in Punjab (J) in Sindh (K) Districts for Punjab Dprived Out of 97 Out of 97 districts (G) (H) insecure districts Serial No. Province Division District and 16 for Sindh. Districts Districts of Districts of of Pakistan (I) 1: Least Deprived 1:Most Pakistan (D) Pakistan (E) 34: Most Deprived Deprived (Pun) and 16: Most (C) Deprived (Sindh) (B)

1 Punjab Sargodha Mianwali 20 22 23 28 2 Bhakkar 7 29 34 62 3 DG Khan Layyah Not Available 31 9 39 29 4 Muzaffargarh 59 33 6 72 57 5 DG Khan 53 32 7 46 39 6 Rajanpur Not Available 34 2 63 50 7 Bahawalpur Rahimyar Khan 18 27 40 37

8 Sindh Larkana Jacobabad 77 13 10 77 9 Shikarpur 72 9 24 24 10 Larkana 67 4 30 52 11 Sukkur Ghotki 42 12 38 41 12 Sukkur 47 3 17 22 13 Khairpur 63 7 52 54 14 Naushahro Feroze 38 5 32 26 15 Nawabshah 49 6 36 63 16 Hyderabad Dadu 21 8 53 49 17 Hyderabad 23 2 27 35 18 Thatta 64 15 4 74 74 19 Kashmore Kandhkot Not Available 20 Jamshoro Not Available 21 Matiari Not Available 22 Tando Muhammad Khan Not Available Source: A. UNDP, Pakistan National Human Development Report 2003 B. Jamal, H et al, Mapping the Spatial Deprivation of Pakistan, Research Report No 52, 2003 (http://www.spdc.org.pk/pubs/rr/rr52.pdf) C: Social Policy and Development Center, 1998 D: Akhtar, Sajjad and Naeem, M, Social Development and Quality of Living in Districts of Pakistan, Comparative Ranking between 1998-2004-05, Discussion Paper # 16, Center for Research on Poverty Reduction and Income Distribution, Islamabad, 2007 E: ibid F: Planning Commission of Pakistan, Mid Term Development Framework 2005-10 (http://115.186.133.3/pcportal/mtdf.htm) G: NDMA H: National Disaster Management Authority, Monsoon Contingency Plan, 2008 I: SDPI, Food Insecurity in Rural Pakistan, 2003-04 J: Punjab Relief Department (Cited in Living with Disasters: Disaster Profiling of Districts of Pakistan by Noreen Haider ) K: Various media reports 1

Page 23 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

Neighboring Risk employs the economy/livelihoods and alternative perspective on disasters environment in future. Please see for its information collection, analysis K table 2.1 for a complete list of and recommendations. To proceed hazards identified by this report. with this report, it will be useful for

R the reader to have an understanding Vulnerability is defined as: “The of the key concepts, approaches and conditions determined by physical, models that make up this perspective social, economic, and environmental

O (8). factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to Hazard is defined as: “A potentially the impact of hazards” (UN/ISDR

W damaging physical event, Geneva 2004.) (10) . The vulnerability phenomenon or human activity that can broadly be divided into: may cause: loss of life or injury,

E property damage, social and Physical Vulnerability that includes economic disruption or environmental human settlements located at degradation. Hazards can include M dangerous locations like river banks latent conditions that may represent and creeks etc; dangerous livelihood future threats and can have different options like fishing in the rough sea, A origins: natural (geological, hydro- mining etc; lack of access to assets meteorological and biological) or like productive lands and capital; lack induced by human processes R of education and access to (environmental degradation and information; and absence of basic technological hazards)” (UN/ISDR

F services like schools, health facilities, Geneva 2004)(9).

clean drinking water, sanitation and transport infrastructure etc. Pakistan's National Disaster L Management Framework (NDMF) Social Vulnerability that includes lack identifies and categorises hazards as of social safety nets and institutions; natural (avalanches, cyclones and A lack of representative and responsive storms, droughts, earthquakes, leadership; weaker or repressive epidemics, floods, glacial lake social relations and structures (for U outbursts, landslides, pest attacks, instance discriminations on the basis river erosion and tsunami) and of caste, gender, age, occupation,

T human-induced (industrial, transport, ownership of resources etc); conflicts oil spills, urban and forest fires, civil between communities; no or little conflicts and internal displacements

P participation in making of decisions of communities) that threaten the that affect people's lives; society, economy and environment . discriminatory gender perceptions E In terms of their frequency and scale and relations etc. of impact, the NDMF identifies

C earthquakes, droughts, flooding, wind Attitudinal Vulnerability that includes storms and landslides as high priority dependency syndromes, resistance to hazards. social change, and superstitions etc.

N Taking UN/ISDR's definition, Economic Vulnerability that includes Neighboring Risk also lists down and low income, lack of income earning O analyses those latent conditions that options, unemployment or may threaten human life, underemployment, bondage or heavy

C

Page 24 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

indebtedness etc. productive or degraded lands, drought-affected areas, riverbanks

K Political Vulnerability that includes and areas vulnerable to hill torrents lack of voice or choice in political etc. Their poverty restricts their decisions, lack of access to power access to education, health services,

R structures and administrative markets and sources of information. centres, exploitative power relations, Resultantly they have few options for O poor governance etc. their livelihood and often have to Poverty and Vulnerability: More resort to dangerous, hard and low- paying occupations. Daily wages and

W often than not, poverty and vulnerability are taken as synonyms. farm labour, and heavy reliance on However this should not be the case. high-interest loans are the key E The two have a cyclical relationship. characteristics of the poor's Poor people suffer from a complex livelihood. Little or no savings, combination of vulnerabilities which absence of social safety nets and lack M perpetuate their poverty and they of access to productive resources like become too weak to withstand the land, capital and skills; absence of or limited access to government and

A disaster risks. Since the poor are far more affected by disasters, they non-governmental institutions become poorer and their capacity to (including credit agencies) are some

R respond to future disasters becomes of the factors that impact lifestyles even weaker. and reflect the fragility of the poor's

F livelihood systems. These conditions translate into a weaker capacity to Poor people often do not have any choice but to live in fragile withstand the impact of hazards. environments characterised by less L

Fig. 1.4. The spiral of poverty, vulnerability and disaster risk

A

Increased vulnerability/resourcelessness

U

T

P

E

C Increased poverty

N Damages caused by disasters

O Poverty and vulnerability Natural hazards Source: Gender Dimension in Disaster Management: A Guide for South Asia (11)

C

Page 25 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

Disaster is often taken as a sudden people's vulnerability while the event that takes human life, creates other is that of hazards. If the risk of widespread destruction and disasters is to reduce; the factors

K emergency measures are required contributing to vulnerability must to tackle the situation. More than be addressed.

R often 'hazards' are confused with 'disasters' and are considered God's The PAR model employs three will or a punishment from Him for major concepts - root causes, O the affected people's perceived dynamic pressures and unsafe misdeeds or sins, or as violent acts conditions. The root causes include of nature. Although hazards have a the social, political and

W potential to create widespread demographic factors that determine destruction, they do not turn into the division of resources among

E disasters on their own. A disaster is different groups. These factors in actually a situation created when a turn reflect the distribution of natural or human induced hazard power in a society and also include strikes a vulnerable community, the prevalent gender relations.

M built-up or natural environment. Till recently disasters have been The dynamic pressure is made up of

A considered a domain of natural or those factors and processes which environmental scientists who by coupling with the root causes analyse hazards from a scientific create vulnerability. Rapid increase

R perspective. This is one of the in population, expanding urban dimensions of dominant or centres, a country's debts and F conventional perspective of mechanisms for their return, disasters. The alternative inflation which causes an increase perspective, in contrast, looks at in the cost of basic services,

L disasters by analysing different environmental degradation, and dimensions of people's increasing demand for land, compel vulnerability: the physical, social, poor people to reside at dangerous A economic, and political settings that places. provide favourable conditions for

U turning hazards into disasters. The unsafe conditions are the most visible forms of vulnerability. These For understanding and explaining can be categorized as fragile

T the relationship between hazards, physical environment, fragile local vulnerability and disasters, the economies, and existence of

P proponents of alternative vulnerable groups and communities perspective have developed useful in a given society or place.

E models. Two of these are: the 'Disaster Pressure and Release We have updated/adjusted the Model (PAR)' developed by Ben original PAR model to reflect the C Wisner et al (12), and 'Sustainable situation documented during our Livelihood Framework (SLF)' assessment for this report. (please developed by DFID (13). see fig. 1.5)

N

According to the PAR model, a

O disaster is actually an intercourse of two forces. One of them is comprised of factors that make up

C

Page 26 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK s t n

e s t e s

d s i D

n g g n t c i

n e n c n R c i a i s

o d a l

K r e t a i i g A k f

h s k l m s e c l n c g n Z

r c c r g a a c s m i a u

e m i i a t i o i o r o r f r t l o a u s e A

t e r

y

h c t s i t f t r m s o m t

t q n t r n r s c / l g n t a i H n o

a s i a e d

t I m e h o e o s t a t f a u

l n t l n t s

r u t r r d f o i s i l i b s m b c a r o l r r a l u o o d i i a o r i a r u

R y l e p a l t r e a r r s o e n F D C H T H D S F E E S T W S P T U I T T C

O = ) ) R ( V

( x

R

W ) Y E T H T I ( V

L S I A D X B S R I A H

E A D R =

Z E R R A N O H L

K U S V I

M R

A

s s d e n n a

d

d n S y

e g

R t n o

r s c i i i

s n N

e a n / a t i e

t n r g i k t a e s s p n m t O n s u u n i z n r i I

g d i e t n l e i

e r i l r s r e a s c

m n T i o k l d c i i t I u e p u m s u b e

n t m a i d a m r b e o r f l F

v r D a o e

e t l

n i

o

s e h s t c e s t e f

y h c l u o t t N m m p

s a n o t a r /

s o d l b l

e l i r n

o u e a

m

o y a f s O s s e , a a v i c s o e t

o e s o t i i s t n n d c i e m r C c n n s i u s t n c n i

i

e a n o o o g d h

o

s e n l l a o a i e r l n

o d s u E

c l r o t t z l f f e a d e

e u f o i c l n a s n m r c F i e h a y u o t o o e i i

s i m i o e n a

t t r t

a l c g o l c

u v

r i c s i i i i A v l k k a

L p e a t k a n e u m h t y e s e d w c c i g e a

S s s r c v m n e a i o f p r r h y h c p c i o i a a n t n a t N P d o s p o i C o D U L L L S l L L H h o o o

P c - - L - - - S - - - O - - - - U Y T I L

A I B A R E e N f

U i

L t l s n

t n s

U c e o n i i e e e l S s t V e g

n

a b E m a g a n d e s F u z m

t p g R i n r n o e i n r p p e i n o n c

n l t T O o l i s U n s o o o

i o a n i i n l b t p e i s t d i l i h S t

t b e e e o v N i c a e s s u

r s S

l k l a n v r d e e e d , l e r u c d i g O m E e o p y n p f

d i c d n i r I a r

i

k t

n x r d

t e i R o , i n a

o

s S o e l r n

t e

a v l d i i

m l f c a

n t d n l P i c

S b

n

P s f e i

b n n t t r

n

o e n a l n u t e a g i e o i E o r c f a a

. i n o C e

a v t a

p

c d n n f t i I i m e t u n n i o R i e n r

a e i o r s t a s v

m m o r t u a d o g

h

o o g a P p G n t l

s m d o

f c e n M o s

h c t o n

a

s t

f t i a o o r e s o a r g s o d

d M s s O

r A k r o d r c u i a s

o

n r a e p p i u r

e

r i i e s

a g r p E o n R s p c s

m

l e c w N h k o e f v d v a i n e e e

p c r o a e t r r

n s P c a f e n o n n Y o v

D T A I R A F E R U B A

a a e d s o a W U P E D

O - - - L ------M - - - - -

e l

H e

T R

C

d

n

a

e d

s r

n

s

N

s

a u m

n

e s e s m r o t

s i e S e s u s t

t e t u y E n l a s

s r c s

l

S o a y s

n u i

e P c v S s r t i

r

e

o U

l t

l . i a e c o r

l t s

i a m r a A

O t

5 s r

e r l g e u c

d . f o u i s C r e t d a u o e

i t e

n s o

i 1 l t i i t t

n

l l s l w d c i T e o

s o . e u e e o o c n c o e

n g O m c P a C b P I R E S G

i i

d L A - - - I - - - - -

O F

C R

Page 27 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

The Sustainable Livelihood Framework The SLF model helps understand (SLF) takes livelihoods as a people's selection of their livelihood combination of activities, skills and strategies and factors that affect these

K assets that one requires to lead choices. It emphasises strengthening his/her life. A particular livelihood of those factors that have a positive

R option can be termed sustainable only impact on increasing people's when it has a capacity to sustain or livelihood options and bringing absorb shocks and there are flexibility in them. The SLF is a useful O possibilities of improving it without tool to analyse people's livelihood compromising the natural systems and understanding the environment. SLF looks at people in vulnerability and disaster risk

W the context of vulnerability. This reduction in the context of livelihoods. context represents a vulnerable

E situation most of the world's poor live Disasters and Development: During in. The factors that make up the the last century many parts of world vulnerability context need to be developed at a very fast pace in terms

M understood as they determine the of industrialization, urbanization, availability of assets and livelihood development of mega infrastructure options for people. The SLF and modernization of agriculture. No

A categorises vulnerability as: economic, doubt this development brought technical, political and demographic prosperity for residents who are trends; shocks like epidemics, natural enjoying high incomes and better

R disasters, conflicts and damages living standards. However this caused to crops and livestock; and development is neither sustainable F seasonality that includes temporary nor equitable as its fruits could not be change in the prices of commodities, equitably distributed among all availability of food, livelihood options countries of the world and

L and health conditions. communities within a particular country. Moreover this development is People's skills and capacities can be being fueled by a massive exploitation

A judged by the state of their productive of natural resources with little care for assets. The livelihood sources keep on their conservation and sustainable

U changing due to trends, shocks and use. This trend has resulted in the seasonality. degradation of natural environment.

T The factors that determine change in Since the industrial revolution, fossil livelihood systems are comprised of fuels are being used to generate P institutions, organizations and laws. electricity, maintain heating systems The importance of these change and keep motor vehicles running etc.

E factors cannot be denied as they can The emission of carbon and other reduce as well enhance the negative greenhouse gases caused by the impacts on vulnerable people. Under burning of these fuels, deforestation, C the influence of vulnerability context and agricultural and livestock activities and change factors, people determine has resulted in climate change - the the use of their productive sources deadliest manifestation of modern

N and livelihood strategies. This is a lifestyles that is threatening the very complex process and a number of life support system that guarantees

O external factors have an impact on this the continuation of life on this planet. process.

C

Page 28 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

Fig. 1.6. Sustainable livelihood framework

K

R

O l g a n t l i i

a e p e t l i b S a D

W - b

E p l C d l O l

e a a l a o e s e n M O r y C a i a o

t c l m u w f H O i a i b

I l t t

a o C i s

L

E i d d s a c e T y b c d E e e u c y n N h a s U o e r

v I s t V r

i f I P c S a u o O r e e e L o = r u = e o

r r u n r P S p d s l e c

o o c

e e s u

e n m

M M I R v I s M u R i I t r r c v a e e e n d h o o

A l S D l l a E t a O I a i t t i G O i p E p H p a I T

R a a L C A

C E l C R

l V a T I i n a S L c r a

F n u t m a a u n

i N H F = = = s s F H N e s G w i L e n a c N & r i

I L o l i u S S o t t M E S S l S t P u E R E R u t E n i C

A R C O S U t e F s S O T

U

f m S E n C T R I e o n C r N C P

t U r l o O A a U R e t e v

U R R v T c R v i T S P r e o T e S L g P S

T S e T s N E c s S n F e S e c A

c u D

P l a H f

O n O I & H P I L S E

E V I L Y

C Y T I T I L T I L X B A E A S S T N R K D N O E C S N O

N N O E A C L R H E U S T S V

O

C

Page 29 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

It is now widely recognized that include: climate change is triggering

K unpredictability of weather systems Social progress - greater access to and thus climate-induced natural knowledge, better nutrition and hazards including cyclones, floods, health services.

R tornadoes, storms, sea level rise, droughts and extinction of many floral Economics - the importance of and faunal species. economic growth as a means to O reduce inequality and improve levels Various development projects like of human development. nuclear plants, big industrial units, W mega dams, irrigation systems, Efficiency in terms of resource use highways and the so-called green and availability - human development

E revolution have also resulted in a is pro-growth and productivity as long number of disasters and hazards. For as such growth directly benefits the instance the green revolution that poor, women and other marginalized

M needs consistent input of chemical groups. fertilisers, hybrid seeds and pesticides has actually exhausted the productive Equity - in terms of economic growth A capacity of agricultural lands in many and other human development parts of world including Pakistan. The parameters. world's largest irrigation system which

R Pakistan is always proud of, has Participation and freedom - created inter-provincial conflicts on particularly empowerment, F irrigation water, resulted in democratic governance, gender degradation of Indus delta, and has equality, civil and political rights, and rendered hundreds of thousands of cultural liberty, particularly for

L hectares of land waterlogged and marginalized groups defined by salinity hit. The unchecked air and urban/rural divide, sex, age, religion, water pollution caused by industrial ethnicity, physical/mental parameters,

A activity, vehicular emissions and etc. seepage of contaminated water into

U aquifers is causing a variety of health Sustainability - for future generations problems including diarrhoea, various in ecological, economic and social forms of cancers, lung diseases, terms.

T tuberculosis and so on. Human security - security in daily life P Human Development (14) is defined against such chronic threats as hunger as a process of enlarging people's and abrupt disruptions. including

E choices and enhancing human joblessness, famine, conflict, etc. capabilities (the range of things people can do) and freedoms, Disaster Risk Reduction is the C enabling them to: live a long and ultimate objective of the alternative healthy life, have access to knowledge perspective. Sustainable risk reduction and a decent standard of living, and involves strategies that could reduce

N participate in the life of their people's vulnerability and enhance community and decisions affecting their capacities to make them sustain

O their lives. Some of the issues and shocks created by hazards. This can be themes currently considered most understood by a simple equation: central to human development

C

Page 30 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

Risk (Disaster) = To reduce the risk of disasters, a combination of strategies is required. Vulnerability (V) x Hazard (H) The PAR and SLF models and human

K Capacity (C) development approach provide useful building blocks of this strategy. It is

R or R=V x H important to keep in sight that efforts to C r e d u c e t h e d i s a s t e r r i s k directly contribute towards sustainable human O and environmental development. Disaster risk reduction also has direct According to this equation the value of linkages with the attainment of

W ‘R’ or risk of disaster will be reduced if Millennium Development Goals. Fig. 1.7 the value of ‘V’ or vulnerability is explains this relationship. reduced and that of ‘C’ or capacity is

E increased.

M Fig. 1.7. Disaster Risk Reduction and Attainment of MDGs

A Eradication of extreme MDG 1: poverty and hunger directly contribute to reducing Eradicate A population burdened

R vulnerability and hence extreme with disease is less able to DRR. The DRR translates poverty cope with the impacts of into disaster resistant and hazards. Hazards like flooding F livelihoods and food stock, are often followed by epidemics hence eradication of income hunger like malaria and other poverty and hunger. water related diseases

L

A MDG 6: MDG 4: Combat Reduce U HIV-AIDS, child Disaster Risk Reduction malaria mortality and other T diseases

P

E Environmental Children under 5 years of sustainability can not be age are particularly achieved unless the natural and vulnerable to the impacts of

C built environment is strong many hazards as well as the MDG 7: enough to withstand the stress of displacement and Ensure impacts of hazards. household livelihood Sustainable environment disruption. environmental N provides a natural shield against sustainability the impacts of hazards.

O

C

Page 31 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

Children, Disasters and Development: information about their rights. This Children and women are among the requirement is not met by simply most affected ones in any disaster providing the means to fulfil child

K situation in terms of death, injury, rights but also providing access to being lost, violence, abduction, them. Specific articles of the

R displacement, and distress. This is convention address the needs of child evident from the accounts of different refugees, children with disabilities and disasters that have happened in children of minority or indigenous O Pakistan or elsewhere in the world. groups. Studies have shown that disasters actually discriminate as they have Right to protection includes

W disproportionately large impact on protection from all forms of child children and women. abuse, neglect, exploitation and cruelty, including the right to special

E Like the human development protection in times of war and approach where all human beings and protection from abuse in the criminal especially the poor are considered the justice system.

M centre of attention, the 'Child Centered Development' takes child Children are entitled to be free to

A rights and needs as focus of express opinions and to have a say in development efforts. This approach matters affecting their social, dwells upon five major international economic, religious, cultural and R commitments namely the Convention political life. Participation rights on the Rights of Child (CRC) 1989, include the right to express opinions F World Summit for Children (WSC) and be heard, the right to information 1990, the 20/20 initiative 1995, and freedom of association. Convention on Elimination of all forms

L of Discrimination against Women Engaging these rights as they mature (CEDAW) 1979, and Millennium helps children bring about the Declaration. realisation of all their rights and A prepares them for an active role in It emphasises upon and strategizes for society.

U ensuring that every child irrespective of his/her location, sex, age, race, The equality and interconnection of religion, ethnicity, caste, economic rights is stressed in the convention. In T status and abilities/disabilities could addition to governments' obligations, enjoy four basic rights of survival, children and parents are responsible

P protection, development, and for respecting the rights of others - participation in decisions that impact particularly each other. Children's

E their lives. understanding of rights will vary depending on age, and parents should The rights of survival and tailor the issues they discuss, and C development imply that these are adopt/discipline methods to the age rights to the resources, skills and and maturity of the individual child. contributions necessary for the N survival and full development of the Taking into account the specific child. These include rights to adequate vulnerabilities and needs of children

O food, shelter, clean water, formal which should be addressed for a education, primary health care, leisure sustainable disaster risk reduction, and recreation, cultural activities and and taking inspiration from Child

C

Page 32 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

Centered Development approach, a Climate Change that is exacerbating the Child-centred and Child-led Disaster extreme weather events like floods, Risk Reduction approach has been cyclones, and droughts etc has specific

K devised. This approach puts children at repercussions for children. Fig.1.9. the core of DRR programs and efforts. illustrates how climate change impacts

R This approach emphasises that children children. The child-centred and child-led should not be looked at as mere DRR approach opens avenues for 'helpless victims' of disasters. Children making children part of the climate O possess capacities according to their change adaptation efforts too. stage of development which form the basis for their active participation in Decentralized Disaster Risk

W emergency response, preparedness and Reduction/Management aims to bring mitigation. disaster risk management cycle at the

E level of devolved governance structures Under this approach programs are (say district and sub district government designed that could provide a nurturing levels). While doing so, the provision of and supportive environment helping local government systems are employed

M children cope with adverse situations, to make local government departments and contributes to building their along with communities and local civil

A resilience. The duty bearers like parents, society organizations part of disaster school teachers, government officials management at district/local levels. and others are made aware of and Section 7, subsection 3 of this report

R capacitated to address children's needs presents a model of sustainable and vulnerabilities related to disasters. decentralized disaster risk reduction in F the context of LGO 2001 .

L Fig. 1.8. Decentralized Disaster Risk Management

A

District District District

U Council Nazim Admin.

Provincial T Tehsil Council Govt. Dept. P Disaster Citizen Tehsil Risk E Community Nazim Reduction Boards

C Tehsil/ Federal Taluka Govt.

N Admin. Dept.

Union Union Union

O Council Nazim Admin.

C

Page 33 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

Fig. 1.9. Children and Climate Change

K

R

O

W

E

M

A

R

F

L

A

U

T

P

E

C

N

O

C Source: UNICEF (15) Page 34 Introduction SECTION 1 NEIGHBORING RISK

1. ADB and World Bank, Pakistan 2005 Earthquake: Preliminary Damage and Need Assessment, Islamabad, 2005 (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/PAKISTANEXTN/Resources/Publications-and- S Reports/CompleteReport.pdf)

E 2. NDMA, National Disaster Risk Management Framework, Pakistan, 2007

3. http://www.duryognivaran.org/ T

4. Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (cited in Living with Disasters; Disaster

O Profiling of Districts of Pakistan by Noreen Haider)

5. ibid N

6. Oxford University Press, Oxford Atlas for Pakistan, Karachi, 2008

7. Hassan A and Amemeh A, Environmental Repercussions of Development in Pakistan, OPP-RTI, 1993 D 8. This section has benefitted from following sources:

N - Malalgoda M and Wickramasinghe M, Gender Dimensions in Disaster Management: A Guide for South Asia, Colombo, ITDG South Asia, 2003

- Blaikie P, Canon T, Davis I, Wisner B, At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability, and Disasters, London, A

Routledge, 2004

- http://www.unisdr.org/ - http://www.nssd.net/pdf/sectiont.pdf

S - http://hdr.undp.org/en/humandev/ - http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/

- http://www.unicef.org/crc/ E - Save the Children Sri Lanka, Promoting Children Friendly and Child Centered Disaster Risk Reduction in Sri

Lanka, Discussion Paper, 2006 (http://sca.savethechildren.se/) C 9. For more details please visit http://www.unisdr.org/eng/terminology/UNISDR-Terminology-English.pdf

N 10. ibid

E 11. Malalgoda M and Wickramasinghe M, Gender Dimensions in Disaster Management: A Guide for South Asia, Colombo, ITDG South Asia, 2003

R 12. Blaikie P, Canon T, Davis I, Wisner B, At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability, and Disasters,

London, Routledge, 2004 E 13. http://www.nssd.net/pdf/sectiont.pdf

F 14. http://hdr.undp.org/en/humandev/

E 15. UNICEF, Our climate, our children, our responsibility: The implications of climate change for world’s

children, Unicef UK Climate Change Report, 2008 R

Page 35 Introduction SECTION 2 NEIGHBORING RISK

Map 2.1 Administrative Division of Pakistan

Islamabad Boundaries, 2006 capital area and the sectors international disputed provincial district Headquarters national capital provincial headquarters district headquarters agency headquarters

District District Headquarters NWFP (North-West Frontier Province) 1 MALAKAND Malakand 2 BUNER Daggar 3 CHARSADDA Charsadda 4 MARDAN Mardan 5 SWABI Swabi 6 PESHAWAR Peshawar 7 NOWSHERA Nowshera 8 HARIPUR Haripur 9 ABBOTTABAD Abbottabad 10 KARAK Karak 11 BANNU Bannu 12 SHANGLA Alpuri 13 BATGRAM Batgram 14 LOWER DIR Temergara 15 HANGU Hangu PUNJ AB 16 PAKPATTAN Pakpattan 17 NANKANA SAHIB Nankana Sahib 18 HAFIZABAD Hafizabad 19 MANDI BAHAUDDIN Mandi Bahauddin 20 TOBA TEK SINGH Toba Tek Singh 21 GUJRANWALA Gujranwala 22 SHEIKHUPURA Sheikhupura 23 VEHARI Vehari 24 LODHRAN Lodhran 25 MULTAN Multan BALOCHISTAN 26 ZIARAT Ziarat 27 NASIRABAD Dera Murad Jamali 28 JAFFARABAD Dera Allahyar 29 SHERANI Sherani 30 KACHHI Gandava

District District Headquarters SINDH 31 KASHMOR Kandhkot 32 JACOBABAD Jacobabad 33 SHIKARPUR Shikarpur 34 SHAHDADKOT - KAMBAR Kambar 35 LARKANA Larkana 36 NAUSHAHRO FEROZE Naushahro Feroze 37 MATIARI Matiari 38 TANDO ALLAHYAR Tando Allahyar 39 HYDERABAD Hyderabad 40 TANDO MUHAMMAD Tando Muhammad KHAN Khan

FATA (Federally administered tribal areas) 41 ORAKZAI Kalaya

Tribal area adjoining A Peshawar District B Kohat District C Bannu District D Lakki Marwat District E Tank District F Dera Ismail Khan District

Scale 1: 7 500 000 0 50 100 150 200 250 km

0 50 100 150 miles Source: Oxford Atlas of Pakistan

Page 36

An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts

SECTION 2 NEIGHBORING RISK

Map 2.2: Natural hazards and environmental damage

Source: Oxford Atlas of Pakistan

Page 37

An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts

SECTION 2 NEIGHBORING RISK

Map 2.3: Tectonic and seismic zones of Pakistan

Source: Oxford Atlas of Pakistan

Page 38

An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts

SECTION 2 NEIGHBORING RISK

Table 2.1: Hazards and their intensity in the sampled districts a t t a h T r u p r i a h K i k t o h G i r a h e V r u p n a j a R k s i r

m h u i r d a e g r k m a s

i f f o R t

a

z h w u g i o M H L h a y y a L s n t

o n i n r t e

o e l s i a d t y t a i t t d a c c c i n i a c u e n w r i

r A m l d g t

i d s l e a

s e s c

n n a S h e e c i i

D n u

r C d a D A d

s i o t o

f i /

R c n r s e

t p

i s y o g c a u t

t y t

u

e o r i l s d r e v n g g l h u v s e s a n C i s e n n o n n i I o e t i p u / e d a

P s o o /

k c i e g h

k s i i s

H s s h d c e g e r s c s k t g s s c A s r /

e e c a C c n g e R m a n a i l n a i o u o

m i

l i r t g g r t s d o a l r r F n A L a s u e m s s e i

t i

C t b i a i t o n o m l r r a E d

t m e s q i r a t r c

t / l n r r n h s F s A n a i r e a o s e r

t I e n e h t n n W S o f a / a g i t o u

d t

e n t r t n d e d r f t / m f o t h e n s T t b i m s b u z a r r n r c l i a l

r r d s u v i r a i i o g s a r n i l i i l e l r p c a e o r r r s a i e o n l o o i o i a r u I y a E L R L E S T W P A T U T U M T T C N t l r t o

z . r ...... F D C H T H D S F

a 9 e ...... 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 F 2 H 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Page 39

An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts

SECTION 2 NEIGHBORING RISK Section 2: An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts

All the districts short-listed or sampled for this study are Many of the identified prevalent hazards recurrently prone to multiple hazards. Table 2.1 gives an overview of turn to disasters of varying magnitude, while some all the hazards and their relative severity mapped out by disasters are in the making and fall in the category of this research in the sampled districts. These hazards 'slow onset disasters'. These include - but not limited to - range from the so called natural and conventional salinity and water logging, rapid increase in the use of hazards like floods and droughts to human-induced risks chemical fertilizers, widening demand-supply gaps like environmental degradation, terrorism and road between irrigation-fit water from surface and accidents. This mapping of hazards has been undertaken underground sources and the looming disaster of through consultations with local government officials, climate change which has already begun to show signs civil society organizations and vulnerable communities. of climate variability and uncertain rainfall and Also helpful was literature available on the temperature patterns. The violence, ethnic tension and socioeconomic, physical and environmental conditions terrorism have also turned to a menace, threatening of the sampled districts. lives and livelihood of people in many of the sampled districts.

2.1. Physiographic Conditions and Hazards Physiographically, Pakistan is an extremely earthquakes of considerable magnitude. diverse country. Topography and climatic These areas are said to be susceptible to conditions have a key role in determining earthquakes of higher magnitudes (7 and the nature of natural hazards, their above on the Richter scale). (2) impacts and physical vulnerability of people and environment in the country. Flooding in Pakistan is caused by three Pakistan can be divided into four broader major sources - rivers, rains and hill and distinct topographical or torrents. The water management physiographic zones with internal infrastructure including drainage variations and diversity in each zone. (1) channels, canals, spurs, embankments and dams etc add the development These are: the northern mountain zone dimension to these floods. Flooding is made up of Himalayan range and foothills; considered to be the most recurrent western highlands; central Indus plain disaster in the country. So far a death toll created by the mighty river Indus and its of more than 8,000 human lives and a eastern and western tributaries; and financial loss of more than US $ 15 billion eastern desert zone comprising the is attributed to floods that have been deserts of Cholistan in Punjab and Nara creating havoc since the inception of and Thar in Sindh. The southern zone of Pakistan in 1947. (3) Pakistan lies on the shores of Arabian Sea making an 1, 100 km long coastal belt and River Indus and its eastern and western a huge Indus Delta. tributaries often swell out of their banks creating inundation in the neighboring The young Himalayan mountains are still areas. Heavy rains on the denuded in the making due to a dynamic tectonic mountains that make up the western activity. Numerous fault lines pass under border of the Indus plains feed the hill the northern mountainous zone and torrents that finally drain into the Indus. western highlands, jolting these and The flash floods caused by these hill neighboring areas recurrently with torrents are of considerable magnitude

Page 40

An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts

SECTION 2 NEIGHBORING RISK damaging human-made structures, crops than two million people, making it one of and infrastructure on their way. the largest internal displacements in the world. Similarly, on average 50-60 persons Being largely dry and arid, Pakistan often per district in Punjab die in road accidents faces drought conditions. As one moves per year. (7) from north to south the quantity of mean annual rainfall decreases from as high as The indoor air pollution sometimes more than 1,500 mm per year in Murree referred to as the 'killer in the kitchen' hills and adjoining areas to no rainfall at caused by the burning of biomass fuels all in parts of Balochistan. The western (wood, crop residues, cow dung etc) is zone largely comprising the least estimated to take more than 110,000 lives populous Balochistan province and the - mostly of women and children - each eastern desert zone are among the worst year in Pakistan. (8) drought hit areas. Likewise, environmental degradation is Cyclones and sea storms hit the southern causing a much bigger loss to national coastal belt in Balochistan and Sindh economy annually than that caused by provinces. Though no Tsunami is known the so called natural disasters. A recent to have hit Pakistan's coastal belt in the strategic environmental assessment recent past, the areas are marked to be report by World Bank (9) notes that each vulnerable to this hazard. It has been year, the environmental degradation in its recorded that in the late 18th century a various forms inflicts a loss of 300 billion strong earthquake caused river Indus to rupees or 6% of country's GDP to the change its course. (4) national economy.

Map 2.2 presents a broader geographical It is pertinent to note that over the years, spread or coverage of each of these and excepting the October 8, 2005 earthquake other hazards prevalent in Pakistan. in Kashmir and NWFP, the loss of human life caused by natural disasters is 2.2. Human-induced Hazards decreasing but the loss caused by human- Besides natural hazards, there are a induced disasters and environmental risks number of environmental issues and is increasing. human induced hazards that prevails in Pakistan. Map 2.2 shows some major 2.2.1. Natural and Human-indced environmental risks the country faces. Hazards in the Sampled Districts Human and material losses inflicted by All the sampled districts are prone to a these disasters are much larger than number of natural and human-induced those caused by natural hazards. For hazards. River Indus which forms a instance, it is reported that more than reference line among the sampled 5,000 people have lost their lives in districts (except district Vehari which is various parts of Pakistan, since the located along one of Indus' eastern incident of 9/11 in the USA, in bomb tributaries - Satluj and Muzaffargarh blasts and suicidal attacks alone. (5) which is bounded by Chenab and Indus) is the main cause of flooding. Originating It is estimated that poor law and order in the Himalayas, Indus flows in a narrow situation and rampant acts of terrorism and naturally contained course formed by have cost Pakistan's economy US $ 34 the greater Himalayan mountain range billion since 9/11. (6) and the Potohar plateau till it reaches Chashma located in north western The recent acts of terrorism in Swat and Punjab. From this point the Indus starts its adjoining areas have displaced more spreading and breadth of its course

Page 41

An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts

SECTION 2 NEIGHBORING RISK increases to many kilometers at some Map 2.4: Major physiographic zones of Pakistan locations. It is interesting to note that all the eastern and western rivers and hill torrents that drain eastward from the western highlands join river Indus on its Mountainous North way to the Arabian Sea.

This natural drainage pattern not only pollutes the irrigation channels with

effluent, it also causes inundation. Two of t r e the sampled districts in Punjab - Layyah s e D and Muzaffargarh are located on the l l a eastern bank while one district Rajanpur is h located on the western bank of Indus. Western Highlands T Further down in Sindh, districts Ghotki Indus Plains and Khairpur are located on the eastern bank while Indus bisects district Thatta Kharan Desert Cholistan Desert before fanning out into its delta. District Vehari is located on the right bank of river Satluj which flows from east to west Nara Desert before it joins Chenab.

All the sampled districts are also part of Thar Desert the arid and dry zone and receive very little rainfall, often causing drought conditions. Parts of Rajanpur and a small portion of Thatta are also hit by hill Source (Base Map): Oxford Atlas of Pakistan torrents. Likewise these two districts are prone to earthquakes of considerable magnitude (5-6 on the Richter scale). The rest of the districts lie in a zone susceptible to earthquakes of small intensity (2-3 on the Richter scale).

In all the districts, the areas that are part of Indus' old flood plane are currently being irrigated through canals. In some of these zones flooding, water logging and salinity caused by the canals has become a severe issue. In district Thatta, cyclones in the Arabian Sea have been wreaking havoc on the lives and livelihood of the coastal communities. The following section presents a brief description of hazards and vulnerability in the sampled districts. (For a detailed description of hazard, please see respective district profiles).

Page 42

An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts

SECTION 2 NEIGHBORING RISK

Layyah

Layyah is part of Thall desert and is traditionally called the Sindh Sagar Doab as it lies between two great rivers - Indus in the west and Jehlum in the east. However Layyah is not touched by Jehlum, while Indus forms its western border separating it from district Dera Ismail Khan in NWFP and Dera Ghazi Khan in Punjab. Layyah is home to a multitude of hazards and has a history of disasters, especially floods and droughts. Thall is one of the four desert regions of Pakistan but it is unique in that underground water is easily accessible. The underground water in the desert zone is brackish but local communities drink it and also use it for irrigation as it supports selected crops.

Layyah was one of the most affected districts in 2005 by heavy rains/flooding in river Indus when 88 villages; 67, 970 persons; and crops on 159, 992 acres of land were affected. More than 6, 000 houses were partially and 8, 005 houses were completely destroyed (Federal Flood Commission, Punjab Relief Department) (10). According to the Layyah District Flood Fighting Plan, (11) 2008, 64 villages in tehsil Layyah and 25 villages in Karor are vulnerable to flooding in river Indus. Roughly 1/3rd portion of its 2 out of 3 tehsils - Karor Lal Easan and Layyah - lies on the left bank of river Indus. The central part of the district covering rest of Karor and Layyah is irrigated by canals. River erosion is a common phenomenon in the riverine area and has so far swallowed large bulks of agricultural lands.

Frost is also common in the riverine and canal-irrigated zone during the months of December and January affecting people's health, crops and vegetables.

The third tehsil, Chobara, that forms some 44% of the district is largely desert and is very thinly populated. Tehsil Chobara suffers from drought conditions, deforestation (razing of natural vegetation) and levelling of sand dunes to make way, especially for the cultivation of gram that has become a major cash crop of this area but remains a bit of a gamble as it depends on timely and sufficient rains.

Given the changing weather patterns and climate variability, the rain pattern is unpredictable, making locals' livelihood vulnerable.

Dust storms are common in the desert zone during summer.

Muzaffargarh

District Muzaffargarh resembles the shape of a peg with its top in the north where it borders Layyah and Jhang and apex in the south at the confluence of river Indus and river Chenab (Panjnad) approaching from west and east respectively to meet each other. The Thal desert terminates by creeping into the district from its north.

Muzaffargarh can broadly be divided into four zones. The northern zone bordering Tehsil Chobara of District Layyah is part of Thal desert. The strips lying along River Indus and River Chenab are flood plains; the area lying in the south or at the bottom of the district is crisscrossed by the branches of River Indus and resembles Indus Delta. Between these three zones placed is the canal irrigated zone. Two of its southern Tehsils Ali Pur and Jatoi are severely affected by floods in Indus and Chenab. It is home to a multitude of hazards namely recurrent flooding in Chenab and Indus, water logging and salinity, drought and deforestation especially in the northern part (tehsil Kot Addu) that form part of Thal desert, technological risks posed and environmental pollution caused by thermal power plants in Muzaffargarh tehsil.

Muzaffargarh is one of those few districts in the Indian subcontinent where irrigation through flood canals was started in the Mughal era some 500 years ago. The recurrent flooding and water logging caused by the canals and hurdles created in the natural drainage pattern by canals, roads and railway lines are some of the major hazards for Muzaffargarh. The

Page 43

An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts

SECTION 2 NEIGHBORING RISK

Muzaffargarh (Continue from previous page)

district is also distinct in a way that it is placed between two great rivers and a number of spurs have been constructed to save the major towns. However the construction of these spurs has aggravated the river erosion.

Rajanpur

Rajanpur is located at the bottom of Punjab and forms a point of confluence for Punjab, Balochistan and Sindh provinces. Like DG Khan the district is bounded on its west by a long stretch of tribal area separating the district from Balochistan while on the eastern side river Indus separates it from Rahim Yar Khan and Muzaffargarh. Flooding in river Indus from east and havocs caused by numerous hill torrents from west sandwich the residents of this poor district.

According to the Rajanpur District Disaster Management Plan (12), 76 villages, in Tehsil Rojhan, 38 villages in Tehsil Jampur and 83 villages in Tehsil Rajanpur are vulnerable to flooding. The same document notes that in 1973, 1975, 1978, 1984, 1986, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2005, and 2006, the heavy rains caused flooding by hill torrents. It also enlists following hazards, besides floods that are prevalent in the district: Earthquakes, pollution, urban and forest fires, transport accidents, sectarian violence, terrorist activities, drought, hostage taking, civil unrest and sabotage accidents.

Besides these hazards, this research study notes that heavy rains, salinity, canal closure, brackish ground water, soil erosion and frost are some of the other environmental hazard being face by Rajanpur.

Vehari

Vehari is one of the southern districts of Punjab located at the right bank of River Satluj-a tributary of River Indus. Under the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan, India has exclusive rights on the waters of Satluj and only water that is considered excessive is discharged into this river. Satluj remains dry for most part of the year and receives water during the summer monsoon months. As the river remains dry, the communities residing near the river started encroaching the river's right of way or bed. Crops have been grown and temporary housing structures have been constructed. Last year, the river received excessive water which affected the crops and housing structures. However despite being a low-discharge river, the communities residing at its banks can not escape the risk of flooding.

Vehari is quite fertile and major portion of the district remains under year long cultivation and crops are irrigated by canals and tube wells. One of the biggest producers of Cotton in Pakistan, Vehari has been producing 15% of the country's total cotton output. Although flooding has not been of calamitous scale, the riverine areas of the district are affected by the floods. According the Vehari District Flood Fighting Plan, 2008 (13), 43 villages in Tehsil Burewala, 62 villages in Tehsil Vehari and 54 villages in Tehsil Mailsi are vulnerable to river flooding. The same document notes that Mailsi Siphon and Islam Head works are two most vulnerable points.

Besides flooding, pest attack has been a major hazard for the district. According to the locals, the consistent pest attacks especially on the cotton crops have reduced the district's share in country's total production as the farmers were forced to switch to other crops resilient to the pest attacks.

According to the local civil society organizations, unsafe drinking water is causing various water borne diseases and hepatitis is widespread.

Page 44

An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts

SECTION 2 NEIGHBORING RISK

Ghotki

District Ghotki together with Jacobabad welcome Indus as it enters Sindh from Punjab. River Indus flows in the upper part of the district from north towards west. The lower portion of the district is under sand dunes. The district can be divided into three distinct parts, Indus flood plains, central plains irrigated by canals and the desert region. Ghotki is home to a number of famous industrial installations and strategic mining sites including Pak Fauji Fertilizers, Engro Chemicals Pakistan, Qadirpur and Mari Gas fields etc.

According to the Flood Relief Plan, 2008 of Ghotki (14), River Indus flows for 86 kilometres along the north western border of the district. The river Indus has been contained by protective embankments. The eastern embankment falls in District Ghotki. According to the same document some 50,000 population resides between the Indus and its protective bund. This population is affected by floods as the areas lying along the Indus are inundated when the river starts overflowing its banks. The distance between two protective bunds varies from 10-25 km at various points.

Droughts are the recurrent phenomenon especially for the desert zone of the district which makes part the eastern desert zone of Pakistan. This area was severely affected by the country's worst drought in 1999-2002.

Ghotki is facing another extremely severe manmade hazard. The saline water pumped from Rahim Yar Khan has been and is being drained into Ghotki that has caused water logging and salinity over thousands of acres in district's desert zone.

Khairpur

Khairpur is the third vastest districts of Sindh and second most populous district following Karachi. It has a variety of geographical characteristics including a riverine tract along Indus, central canal irrigated zone, the lower/south eastern desert zone and a hilly zone extending from Rohri Taluka of Sukkur that runs for 45 kilometres in Khairpur. The desert portion of the district is very extensive and covers 73% area of the district. The western boundary of Khairpur, Kingri, Sobhodero and Gambat Taluka is formed by the river and is thinly covered with forests.

According to the District Flood Relief Plan, 2008 (15), about 120,000 people live in the riverine areas of the district and is prone to flooding. Khairpur's desert zone forms the great Nara desert and forms part of Pakistan's eastern desert zone. This zone faces recurrent droughts and was one of the most severely hit areas during the 1999-2002 droughts.

Thatta

Thatta is the second last destination of Indus before it joins the Arabian Sea. Before entering the sea, Indus forms a huge delta comparable to those of all great rivers of the world. The delta region spreads over an area of some 8000 sq km in the district. Besides this most important geographical zone, Thatta is home to all the major geographical characteristics of Sindh i.e. a Kohistan tract/Kirthar range in north west, delta and sand dunes in south, irrigated plains etc. Thatta can be termed a wonderland in terms of biodiversity and physical features. 17% area of the district is still covered by the mangrove forests (16).

Page 45

An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts

SECTION 2 NEIGHBORING RISK

Thatta

Vulnerable to cyclones, Tsunami and sea level rise, pollution of country's one of the most important fresh water lakes, Thatta can be termed a huge environmental challenge.

The degradation of the Indus delta owing to reduced flow of fresh water in the Indus is one of the biggest environmental challenges Pakistan faces. The reduced fresh water flow in Indus after the construction of dams and barrages on the Indus and diversion of water upstream, has not only degraded the Indus delta, but has also made room for sea to intrude and eat up or render huge lands unfit for agricultural activity. Hundreds of thousands of people from coastal communities who were earlier involved either in the inland river transportation, agriculture or livestock have migrated to neighboring towns or have switched to fishing. The delta region of Indus has so far shrunk to 10% of its original size (17).

Page 46

An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts

SECTION 2 NEIGHBORING RISK

1. Hasan A and Ameneh A, Environmental Repercussions of Development in Pakistan, OPP-RTI, Karachi,

1993 S

2. Oxford University Press, Oxford Atlas for Pakistan, Karachi, 2008 E

3. World Bank, Pakistan Water Economy Running Dry, Oxford University Press, Karachi, 2005 T 4. McMurdo J, McMurdoe's Account of Sind, Oxford University Press, Karachi, 2007

O 5. http://www.thenews.com/daily_detail.asp?id=169849

6. http://www.defence.pk/frums/economy-develoment/27182-war-terror-costs-pakistan-35-billion-

N reports.html

7. Analysis based upon road accident data given in Punjab Development Statistics 2005, Published by

Planning and Development Department, Government of Punjab, Pakistan D 8. World Bank, Pakistan Oil and Gas Sector Review, 2003 (Cited in Shakoor A, Indoor Air Pollution and Household Energy: Policy Options and Gaps, A case of Pakistan, RDPI/Practical Action Nepal, 2007) N 9. Ministry of Environment, Government of Pakistan, National Sustainable Development Strategy,

A Islamabad, 2009

10. Federal Flood Commission and Punjab Relief Department (cited in Living with Disasters: Disaster

profiling of districts of Pakistan by Noreen Haider) S

11. District Government Layyah, Layyah District Flood Fighting Plan 2008, Layyah, 2008 E 12. District Government Rajanpur, Rajanpur District Disaster Management Plan 2008, Rajanpur, 2008

C 13. District Government Vehari, Vehari District Flood Fighting Plan 2008, Vehari, 2008

14. District Government Khairpur, District Flood Relief Plan 2008, Khairpur, 2008 N

15. District Government Ghotki, Flood Relief Plan 2008, Ghotki, 2008 E 16. Sindh Bureau of Statistics, Development Statistics of Sindh 2006, Karachi, 2006

R 17. IUCN, Sindh State of Environment and Development, Karachi, 2004

E

F

E R

Page 47

An Overview of Hazards and Vulnerability in Pakistan and Sampled Districts

SECTION 3 NEIGHBORING RISK Section 3: The Physical Conditions in the Sampled Districts

All the sampled districts have a diversity of physiographic features. The scarcity and abundance of water in these districts runs side by side. The diversity of topography or physical features means diversity of environmental conditions and hence natural hazards.

3.1. Area Together the sampled districts spread over an area of 70571 sq.km or 9% of Pakistan’s land area. In terms of area Thatta is the vastest and Vehari is the smallest district among the sampled ones. The percentage area share of each district in the sampled districts is;

4. Vehari 4364 6%

1. Layyah 6291 9%

2. Muzaffargarh 8249 12%

3. Rajanpur 12319 17%

5. Ghotki 6083 9%

6. Khairpur 15910 23% 1 7. Thatta 17355 25% 2 Source : (1) 4

3

5

6

7 Base Map: Atlas of Pakistan, Survey of Pakistan (2)

Page 48 The Physical Conditions in the Sampled Districts SECTION 3 NEIGHBORING RISK

3.2. Geology (3) Map 3.1 Geology of the districts Geologically, all the sampled districts are made up of sedimentary and volcanic rocks. The mountainous zones Geology in districts Rajanpur, Khairpur and Geologically lands in all the Thatta are similar in geological sampled districts are made of characteristics to those of western sedimentary and volcanic highlands and are formed of rocks. sedimentary rocks of tertiary type. The rest of the lands in the sampled district are of quaternary type.

3.3. Climate (4) Climatically all the districts fall in the hot, arid and dry zone where mean annual rainfall is negligible, summers are long and winters mild. In the coastal zone of Thatta the summer remains mild, thanks to the sea breeze. In all the rest of the districts the summers are extremely hot and temperatures may rise to as high as 50 degrees Celsius in the month of June. The average annual Source (Base Map): Atlas of Pakistan, rainfall ranges from less than 125 mm Survey of Pakistan to 255 mm. All the districts receive summer rains during monsoon (July- August) and winter rains in December Map 3.2 Climate zones and January. Sulaiman mountain range Climate in the north west of Rajanpur receives an annual rainfall that may increase to All the sampled districts are part of about 500 mm . According to locals this hot and arid zone where rainfall is low zone remains cool even during the ranging from as low as less than125 mm to summer and can be turned into a hill maximum 255 mm average annual resort on the pattern of Fort Manro rainfall. The summers are long also lying in the same mountain region. and harsh and winters short and mild. These districts Dust storms and hot winds during the receive major portion of summer months are a common the rainfall phenomenon especially in the desert during monsoon zones of Thall where Layyah and some (June-September). portion of Muzaffargarh lie and in Nara The rainfall can and Thar desert zones comprising parts be erratic of Ghotki and Khairpur districts. and sometimes the rains turn violent. Floods, The climatic patterns prevalent in the drougrhts and heat waves identified districts have shaped the are recurrent phenomenon. Mean Annual Rainfall local built environment, especially the 250-500 mm (minimum housing structures. These structures summer rains) can be termed climate responsive as 125-255mm (Dry) they follow the principles of passive less than 125 mm heating and cooling without having to Source: Atlas of Pakistan, Survey of Pakistan (Very Dry) Page 49 The Physical Conditions in the Sampled Districts SECTION 3 NEIGHBORING RISK use artificial sources of energy. Over Map 3.3 Soil structure the last couple of decades the relative affluence seen in some areas has led to concrete construction in the name Soil Structure of improvement of housing stock. Despite these fringe developments, The diversity of the physical climate continues to shape the housing features in the sampled districts options especially for the poor in the has transformed in the diversity of districts under study. the soil structure and types and thus have different levels of 3.4. Soil Structure (5) fertility. Except Vehari Soil structure is an important which is mostly canal determinant of the agricultural or tube well irrigated, conditions, drainage and moisture a big carrying capacity. The soils in the proportion surveyed districts can broadly be of the land categorized as: area in the identified 1. Soils along river Indus and Satluj districts (Vehari) are most fertile and are part is not available for of Indus' active flood plain. These are extensive/year long loamy and stratified sandy soils. agriculture.

2 Next to this zone lies Indus' old flood Source: Atlas of Pakistan, Survey of Pakistan plain. Soils are also quite fertile here and are currently being irrigated by canals and tube wells. These are loamy and clayey soils.

3. The desert zone is made up of sandy soil which has been found to perform well especially in winter if suitable moisture conditions are made available. For instance, in Thall and Nara extensive agriculture is being practised where irrigation water is available.

4. A small mountainous portion in the north west of Khairpur district resembles the soil conditions found in the western mountainous region. A very patchy cover of heterogeneous soil materials are found here. This area has thin patches of vegetation cover.

5. In the eastern foothill zone of Rajanpur, loamy and clayey saline soils Sand of Nara Desert of piedmont plains are found. According to experts these soils are made of alluvium brought by the water

Page 50 The Physical Conditions in the Sampled Districts SECTION 3 NEIGHBORING RISK drained from the mountains and are far Map 3.4 Natural vegetation more fertile when compared to the Indus soils, provided timely irrigation Natural Vegetation water is available. This fact is corroborated by the locals in Rajanpur Three types of natural vegetation according to whom if water for are found in the sampled districts. irrigation from hill torrents is available These include desertic and on time, the crop produce is semi desertic in the desert remarkable. zones, tropical thorn, and mangroves in 6. District Thatta is quite diverse in this Thatta (Delta zone). regard. Besides having soils discussed above, major portion of Thatta is Tropical Thorn comprised of loamy saline soils of the n o i estuary plains. In the delta t t e zone silty and clayey wet saline soils of ga e V tidal plains are found. c i t r e s 3.5. Natural Vegetation (6) e D

A kind of uniformity in terms of natural i m e S vegetation is found in the identified / c i t districts. In the areas that are part of r Mangroves e s Indus' active flood plain and those e which are part of Indus's old flood D plains, tropical thorny (rakh) vegetation Source: Atlas of Pakistan, Survey of Pakistan is found. In the desert zone, due to Map 3.5 Land use obvious reasons of soil structure and Land use harsh climatic conditions, desertic and semi desertic vegetation is found. In Except Vehari, all the districts hold the delta zone of Thatta mangrove big portions of rough forests are spread over a vast area. It is grazing lands. The other major to be noted that despite degradation of uses include arable agriculture, the delta, this zone continues to have forestry and human settlements. one of the biggest mangrove stocks in the world. (7).

3.6. Landuse (8) In terms of natural land use four major uses are prominent: the arable agricultural lands, rough grazing lands, non agricultural lands or lands not available for agriculture, and lands covered with forest. Even a cursory analysis of the land use map of Pakistan reveals that major portion of four Rough Grazing Lands districts namely Layyah (Thall), Arable Agricultural Lands Rajanpur (piedmount plain) and Ghotki Forest Cover and Khairpur (Nara/Thar) are rough Not available/fit for agriculture grazing lands. Source: Atlas of Pakistan, Survey of Pakistan In all the districts the areas lying

Page 51 The Physical Conditions in the Sampled Districts SECTION 3 NEIGHBORING RISK adjacent to river Indus and next to this zone are under arable agriculture. A considerable portion of lands especially in Thatta and Khairpur are denuded of vegetation and not available for agriculture. The riverine areas where once thick forests thrived have been denuded to make way for fields. Small pockets of forest are now left in all the districts except Thatta where 17 % (9) of the lands are still categorized as forest lands. Most of the forest cover in the remaining district is now composed of private tree stocks and linear plantation along canals and roads.

A view of Indus Delta, in Thatta

Page 52 The Physical Conditions in the Sampled Districts SECTION 3 NEIGHBORING RISK

1. Population Census Organization, Statistics Division, Government of Pakistan, 1998 Census Atlas of the

Punjab Province, and 1998 Census Atlas of the Sindh Province, Islamabad, 2006 S

2. Oxford University Press, Oxford Atlas for Pakistan, Karachi, 2008 E 3. Survey of Pakistan, Atlas of Pakistan, Rawalpindi, 1997

T 4. ibid

O 5. ibid

6. ibid N

7. IUCN, Sindh State of Environment and Development, Karachi, 2004

8. Survey of Pakistan, Atlas of Pakistan, Rawalpindi, 1997 D

9. Sindh Bureau of Statistics, Development Statistics of Sindh 2006, Karachi, 2006

N

A

S

E

C

N

E

R

E

F

E R

Page 53 The Physical Conditions in the Sampled Districts SECTION 4 NEIGHBORING RISK Section 4: Socioeconomic Conditions

4.1. Demography Fig 4.1: Demography of the sampled districts All the sampled districts put together, make up 8.32% of Pakistan's Demography population, as per the recent population estimates.(1) In 1998, this According to Census 1998, 8% of proportion was 8%. The increase in Pakistan’s population was residing in population share over the years is 7 sampled districts. attributable to relatively higher population growth rates these districts are maintaining. A broader analysis of the demographic figures and population's spread/placement reveals some important trends:

1. Majority of the population is residing in arable areas where all the major towns/urban settlements and compact villages are located. The flood prone areas and coastal communities in general and desert locations in particular are thinly populated, and settlements are comprised of very few According to census 1998, and scattered houses. together these 7 districts had a combined 2. The communities residing in the population of 10,581,218 or flood plains, coastal villages and desert 8% of the country’s locations are found to maintain a population. It is estimated clan/tribal/religious and ethnic that by 2006, the combined uniformity. These communities population had reached generally belong to a particular clan 13,047,000 or 8.32% of and prefer to maintain their identity population of Pakistan through group living. It is interesting to (15,67,70,000 ), witnessing an note that tribal or caste linkages can be increase of 23.3% in 8 years. traced among the communities residing along the Indus.For instance members Ghotki 1,210,000 9.3% Khairpur 1,929,000 14.8% of the Mohana community who have Thatta 1,388,000 10.6% traditionally been attached with Inland Vehari 2,494,000 19.1% river transportation are found residing Layyah 1,373,000 10.5% along the Indus both in Punjab and Mzgrh. 3,286,000 25.2% Sindh. Rajanpur 1,367,000 10.5%

3. According to the 1998 census, 34- Sampled Districts Estimated Population (2006)* 35% population on average in the % population share in the sampled districts studied districts was below the age of 10 and almost half the population was * Population estimates cited in Punjab Development Statistics 2005, Development Statistics of Sindh 2006, and Social Indicators of Pakistan 18 or below. 2007 4. Populations in all the districts are

Page 54 Socioeconomic Conditions SECTION 4 NEIGHBORING RISK found to be markedly unbalanced in Fig 4.2: Population growth rate in the sampled districts

favor of males. In districts like Ghotki

1 1

2

3

0

2 0

Like rest of the country the average 3

. .

.

.

.

.

.

.

5 0

0

0

5

5 0 there used to be 114 males for every annual population growth rates 5 100 females as recorded in the 1981 reduced during 1998-2006 compared census. The male-female ratio is found to 1981-98, in all the sampled districts to have slightly reduced to 111.4 except Khairpur and Thatta where Pakistan (Census 1998). A somewhat similar these rates actually increased. situation prevails in almost all the districts. The higher male population In all the sampled districts the annual Punjab reflects social preferences of society in average growth rates are higher than the national and provincial average these districts which continue to favor annual growth rates. having and keeping well the male child, Sindh sometimes at the cost of the female child. Pakistan 2.7 2.14 Punjab 2.64 2.0 Layyah 5. The annual population growth rates Sindh 2.80 2.07 in all the districts are higher than the Layyah 3.11 2.57 Muzaffargarh national and provincial averages. Muzaffargarh 3.38 2.79 Although in five out of seven districts a Rajanpur 3.27 2.71 decrease in average annual growth Vehari 2.70 2.23 Rajanpur rates can be observed, the overall Ghotki 3.26 2.79 population continues to grow fast in Khairpur 2.71 2.80 Vehari these districts. Thatta 2.26 2.80

6. An inter district population Except in Vehari, Khairpur and Thatta, Ghotki comparison reveals that population in population has more than doubled in four out of seven districts more than sampled districts during 25 years from doubled during 25 years between1981- 1981-2006. Muzaffargarh is the most Khairpur 2006. Whereas in Khairpur and Thatta, populous and fastest grown district. the average annual growth rates are The growth rate is found to be Thatta found to have increased in the period slowest in Vehari when compared to 1998-2006 compared to those rest of the sampled districts. recorded for the period 1981-98.

7. All the sampled districts are rural in Average Estimated nature. The official population Annual Average Annual estimates suggest that there has not Growth Rate Growth Rate * Source: been mentionable change in the Census Atlas of Sindh, 1998 (1981-98)* (1998-2006) Census Atlas of Punjab, 1998 proportion of urban and rural populations. Khairpur is the most urbanized district with 1/4th of its population found residing in the urban areas. The proportion of urban population in the sampled districts is much lower than the national and provincial averages. The static proportion of urbanization points to three important facts. First, the districts under study are overshadowed by neighboring urban centers. For instance, Thatta neighbors

Page 55 Socioeconomic Conditions SECTION 4 NEIGHBORING RISK country's two major urban centers - Fig 4.3: Urbanization in the sampled districts Karachi and Hyderabad. Second, in the urban areas social and economic All the sampled districts are rural in Urban Pop. % nature as large majority of the services could not be developed (Census 1998) population continues to resides in enough to pull the population from its Pakistan 32.5 the rural areas. The proportion of respective rural homelands and from Punjab 31.27 urban population is much lower in other districts. Third, people continue Vehari 16.05 to prefer staying in rural areas and all the sampled districts compared to the national and provincial Layyah 12.86 travel to towns and urban settlements Muzaffargarh 12.95 as and when a need may arise. averages. The population estimates by respective provincial Rajanpur 14.51 Sindh 48.75 8. The increase in population also governments suggest that Ghotki 16.33 means increasing pressure on natural proportion of urban population has resources, demand to produce more, not changed much during last Khairpur 23.61 and increase in the population residing decade. Thatta 11.21 at vulnerable locations.

4.2. Housing The overall housing conditions in all the sampled districts, in the light of official statistics, are found to have Pakistan 50 improved considerably in the last Punjab decade 1998-2006-07. However, in a few cases the conditions have actually 40 Vehari deteriorated in the last couple of years Layyah or have improved marginally. 30 Muzaffargarh 20 Housing data for this report has been Rajanpur taken from the district census reports Sindh and Pakistan Social and Living Standard 10 Measurement (PSLM) Surveys 2004-05 Ghotki 0 and 2006-07. The PSLM provides Urban Population % Khairpur comprehensive and segregated district- level data that can be relied upon. Thatta

A broader analysis of the housing related statistics reveal following major The slow paced urbanization trends: in the sampled districts can be attributed to, inter alia, 1. Housing stock in both urban and two major reasons. One, the rural areas in terms of use of districts are overshadowed permanent construction materials, by neighboring urban appears to have substantially improved centers. For instance Thatta since 1998. by Karachi and Hyderabad; Khairpur and Ghotki by 2. Household sanitary conditions in Sukkur; Muzaffargarh and terms of availability of latrine inside Vehari by Multan etc. the houses are also found to have Second, the urban areas in these districts could not develop social services improved. Non-flush latrines are and economic opportunities attractive enough to pull their respective rural commonly used in rural areas but the populations in a big way. required sewerage system is almost

Page 56 Socioeconomic Conditions SECTION 4 NEIGHBORING RISK non existent in villages and is poorly planned in urban settlements.

3. There is marked increase in the rural electrification across all the districts. Almost complete coverage has been achieved in the urban settlements but the pace is much slower for rural The desert locations in all the sampled areas. districts are thinly populated. Same is the case with delta locations inThatta. 4. Piped water supply is available to a However this is not the case with limited proportion of both urban and riverine locations. rural areas in the studied districts. Motor pumps extracting ground water have made inroads in urban houses The official statistics show, that the housing conditions have and almost half of the houses appear markedly improved since 1998 in terms of construction material to have installed motor pumps. Hand (permanent houses), availability of latrines and rural electrification pumps are the major source of getting in all the districts under study. However the fruits of this prosperity water for household consumption in do not appear to have reaped by the hazard prone locations rural areas whereas motor pumps are researched making their way into well off rural in the sampled houses. districts. Most of these locations, 4.3. Economic Conditions and do not have Livelihoods electricity, The district census reports give an idea majority of the of the livelihood patterns prevalent in houses are the sampled districts. Although the without latrines, data is now a decade old it is still and most of the found relevant. This is largely because housing stock is of the fact that, as mentioned earlier, composed of there has not been a substantial adobe structures. change in economic patterns and the rural-urban mix of the population in these districts. It is pertinent to note that inflationary trends, rapid increase in population and shrinking economic opportunities in the rural areas have forced many a rural household to opt for labor opportunities in other villages, neighboring towns, big cities and abroad (a small proportion). A recent report by the World Bank on Rural Poverty and Economic Growth in Pakistan (2) notes that almost half of the population residing in the rural areas is no more directly dependant on agriculture. The statistics by the provincial and federal governments on household income patterns also reveal that rural households are Page 57 Socioeconomic Conditions SECTION 4 NEIGHBORING RISK substantiating half of their incomes through non agricultural sources especially remittances by family members working in towns and cities. It is also to be noted that over the last decade there has been a ban on the government jobs and large scale industrial activity has also not attracted labor force in a big way. The construction and transport industry and service sector, on the other hand, have attracted/engaged the labor force substantially. Both the formal sector and non formal sectors have, however not created jobs for unskilled and illiterate womenfolk.

According to census data 1998, more than 60% of the population in districts under study relies on agriculture and allied fields to earn their living. Nearly A local carpenter is busy in his work at Kharo Chaan, Thatta. 10% income earning population is in government jobs while 5% is in private sector jobs. Self employment is also an option for majority of the economically active population to earn their living. Almost 3/4th of the population opts for it. Almost 1/5th of population is economically active and unemployment rates range between 10-20% varying from district to district. Despite being actively engaged, especially in the agricultural economy, women and children are not recognized as economically active and are placed in the category of “domestic workers” and normally do not receive monetary compensation for their labor.

All three sampled districts of Sindh - Thatta, Khairpur and Ghotki - are rich in mineral resources. However the benefits of these natural resource are enjoyed exclusively by the government and private industrial concerns and do not trickle down to the local populations in the shape of In all the sampled districts, children in the poor households are found employment opportunities etc. to have an important role in contributing to households incomes.

Page 58 Socioeconomic Conditions SECTION 4 NEIGHBORING RISK

4.4. Education and Literacy Fig 4.4: Literacy trends in the The education and literacy figures in the sampled districts selected districts are not encouraging and fall short of provincial and national averages. Literacy among women folk is far less than that among men.

Over the last decade, the school enrollment and literacy figures appear to have considerably improved. However a dissection of literacy related data unfolds a number of male-female, urban-rural and intra-district disparities. The government considers all those who have ever attended school, no The labor children are provided matter to whatever level, as literate. In free education by Indus Resource all the districts the proportion of Center in the evening at their population that has actually completed children library, in Khairpur City primary or higher levels of education, on average, fall short of 10 percentage points to that of population considered literate. Likewise the proportion of In districts like Rajanpur and three districts of Sindh, the gains made literacy among women, on average is till 2004-05 in the literacy , are being lost. In these districts, the total 1/3rd to that among men. literacy among population aged 10+, is appearing to be less than that recorded in 2004-05. A comparison of literacy among rural and urban women points to the fact District Lit. In 06-07 lit. In 04-05 that literacy among the former is 1/3rd Rajanpur 31% 40% of that among the latter. Ghotki 44 % 51% Khairpur 46% 48% The number of educational institutions Thatta 34% 35% for girls is far less than that for boys. For instance in Ghotki, for a population of (Source: PSLM 2006-07, Government of Pakistan) 1.3 million, there are only four high schools for girls, and in Thatta - the The level of literacy in all these districts, like rest of the, country, is not second biggest district of Sindh in terms encouraging. When compared to the total literacy figures, the figures of area - there is only one degree of people actually having completed the primary education, are much college for girls and no post graduate lower. college either for boys or for girls(3). In all the sample districts, the adult literacy (among population aged A common trend among all the 10+) is less than that in Pakistan and in the respective provinces. sampled districts is that the number of higher level educational institutions The female literacy in Rajanpur among the population aged 15+ is decreases with each level. Although this lowest (7%) when compared to other sampled districts. trend is understandable, the higher level educational facilities do not match Layyah appears to be most literate district (Total adult (15+) literacy 50%) at all with the population size. The and Rajanpur the least (Total adult literacy 26%) among the sampled acute shortage of educational facilities, districts. especially for girls, means reduced opportunities for them to pursue their education and hence social, economic

Page 59 Socioeconomic Conditions SECTION 4 NEIGHBORING RISK and political development. Fig 4.5: Public health issues in the sampled districts 4.5. Health The state of primary health care in all the selected districts is dotted with a number of issues that affect the lives and health of the population, especially of women and children.

Over the years the number of public health facilities has increased considerably in each district. However, the official statistics show that people are unable to make use of these facilities either due to accessibility issues or due to lack of satisfactory care people expect to receive. This trend is reflected in the proportion of patients consulting private health service providers. In all the districts, on average, 60-70% patients prefer to consult private services compared to 20-25% who seek health care from the A considerable proportion of children aged 12-23 months in the public facilities (4). sampled districts is yet to be fully immunized.

The use of mobile health facilities in District Proportion of children yet the shape of lady health workers also to be fully immunized appears to be negligible. A small Vehari 38% proportion, especially of rural women Layyah 33% manage to receive post natal and Muzaffargarh 76% prenatal care from a formal health Rajanpur 74% service provider. More than 80% of the Ghotki 76% deliveries take place at home usually Khairpur 77% with the assistance of a relative or Thatta 67% neighbor women or traditional birth attendant (5). (Source: PSLM 2006-07) A very small proportion of pregnant women receive tetanus toxoid injection, both in urban and rural In all the sampled districts, like rest of the country, 1/4th or even less areas. than that patients prefer to consult a public facility. On average 60-70% patient prefer to be taken to private health facilities. The use of mobile The target for fully immunizing the health facilities like Lady Health Workers, appears to be negligible. children population(12-23 months) is far from being achieved. A big proportion of women (averaging 60-70%) in the sampled districts 4.6. Agriculture, Environment and remain unable to receive, pre and post natal care from the formal Risks health facilities. All the sampled districts have an agrarian economy that absorbs more than 60% of the economically active

Page 60 Socioeconomic Conditions SECTION 4 NEIGHBORING RISK population of these districts.

Agriculture and its sub fields like fisheries, forestry and livestock hold an important place in the livelihood of the people of these districts. These sectors Ghotki: Riverbanks that have overtly important linkages with once used to be the and impacts on environment and are abodes of thick riverine embedded with a number of forests, have been cleared environmentally significant risks. A off to accommodate beneath-the-surface analysis of the expansion in hazards and vulnerability shows that agriculture activity by agriculture and its sub sectors are making room for fields. among the sectors most affected by natural disasters. Any hazard that strikes agriculture, in fact affects the Ghotki: Irrigation water livelihoods of a great majority of the is lifted from river Indus sampled districts' population. by installing diesel-run pumps. Farmers at the In the agriculture sector, the districts downstream of rivers under study have some common but and canals in Pakistan major issues: are often found complaining about 1. Expansion in agriculture activity by water-theft by farmers bringing more and more lands under at the upstream. the plough. This trend has resulted in bringing even the riskiest of the places like river banks under cultivation. Likewise, in Thal and Nara, considering agriculture as the only productive use of land, sand dunes have been denuded of the natural vegetation cover and government owned common grazing lands are being encroached. Khairpur: Huge tracts of The loss of natural vegetation has agricultural lands are various dimensions. In the desert zone severely hit by water of Thal and Nara where summer logging and salinity. cropping is hard to sustain, the land cleared for winter crops remains devoid of any vegetation cover during summer. Dust storms and strong winds that are a common summer phenomenon, in absence of vegetation cover that otherwise protects the desert lands from being eroded, cause Rajanpur: Scarcity of wind erosion disturbing the productive irrigation water is one of soil cover and hence loss of floral bio the most crucial problems diversity. being faced by poor farmers in the Pachaad area of the Reduction in natural fodder production district.

Page 61 Socioeconomic Conditions SECTION 4 NEIGHBORING RISK is now being compensated with stall feeding of animals with fodder crops. The need to grow fodder has produced a competing need on the lands that can otherwise be used for growing Rajanpur: Shortfall in canal crops for human consumption. water for irrigation, over Likewise, the razing of riverine forests the years, has become a has resulted in increased river erosion recurrent phenomenon in and loss of organic matter that is taken Pakistan, severely away by receding flood water. undermining the agricultural productions. 2. An overall shortage of canal water prevails in every district. The shortfall is being compensated with an increased pumping of ground water Layyah, Thall: Camels are being through the installation of private tube stall-fed. Huge flocks of camels, wells. At several places outside the just a few decades ago, used to Indus plain, the ground water is roam the vast grazing lands of brackish and when extracted brings Thall that have now been with it salts that result in increasing converted to fields. The salinity of soil. Farmers are found camel population has decreased complaining of falling water tables. manifold since then owing to reduction in natural fodder. 3. Expansion in agriculture is being fueled with an increasing use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. In the selected districts, on average a 10% increase in the use of chemical fertilizers per annum is noted (6).

4. From 1996-2000, a considerable decline in the number of livestock Layyah, Thall: Natural heads was observed especially in vegetation is being cleared Sindh. Much of this decline can be by putting it on fire, to attributed to the drought conditions make room for gram that severely hit Sindh along with cultivation. Balochistan in 1999-2000.

5. In all the districts, deforestation is going on unabated. Riverine areas that were once covered with forests have been razed to make way for cultivation. Except in Thatta, where The drought of 17% area of the district is still under 1999-2000 that mangroves, the forest cover in all the hit especially remaining districts largely consists of Sindh and irrigated plantations, private wood Balochistan, stocks and linear plantation along the impacted hard the roads and canals. livestock population in these two areas.

Page 62 Socioeconomic Conditions SECTION 4 NEIGHBORING RISK

The loss of natural vegetation has also resulted in loss of habitat for wild birds, reptiles, mammals and fish (in case of Thatta where degradation of mangorve forests have severely affected fish production as they provide breeding space for fish). Chowk Azam, Layyah: The 6. As a result of extensive use of chemical fertilizers, mechanization in the form of tractor that fuels the so called use, only a few farmers can be seen green revolution, has employing farm animals for ploughing. become rampant.

7. Production of minor crops like barley, millet, rapeseed and mustard that are quite resilient to dry conditions is either static or has declined. The water intensive crops especially sugarcane is widely being cultivated. Most of the tree stock in the 8. The issue of water logging and sampled districts is comprised salinity in parts of identified districts of linear plantation found along has become severe. In Muzaffargarh, roads and canals. for instance, 40% area of the district is water logged (7). In Khairpur and Ghotki the lands lying adjacent to roads, railway tracks and canals are severely hit by salinity. Layyah, Thall: Leaves of trees burnt due to frost. Fruit trees, crops and vegetable are highly vulnerable to frost during winter. Farmers suffer heavy losses due to this phenomenon.

Kot Mithan, Rajanpur: Agriculture in Pakistan is increasingly being mechanized especially in terms of tractor use. Page 63 Socioeconomic Conditions SECTION 4 NEIGHBORING RISK

1. See Punjab Development Statistics 2005 and Development Statistics of Sindh 2006

S 2. World Bank, Pakistan: Promoting Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction, 2007 (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/PAKISTANEXTN/Resources/293051-

E 1177200597243/ruralgrowthandpovertyreduction.pdf)

3. See Development Statistics of Sindh 2006 by Sindh Bureau of Statistics T

4. Federal Bureau of Statistics, Statistics Division, Government of Pakistan, Pakistan Social and Living

O Standard Measurement Survey 2006-07, Islamabad, 2008

5. ibid N

6. See Punjab Development Statistics 2005 and Development Statistics of Sindh 2006

7. Population Census Organization, Statistics Division, Government of Pakistan, 1998 District Census

D Report of Muzaffargarh, Islamabad, 2000

N

A

S

E

C

N

E

R

E

F

E R

Page 64 Socioeconomic Conditions SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK

Section 5. Besides Official Statistics: The State of Vulnerable Communities and Groups

This section presents findings of the community survey undertaken for this research. The survey was aimed at understanding the physical, environmental and socioeconomic conditions, and livelihood patterns of some of the most vulnerable communities residing in the hazard prone locations of the sampled districts. The survey also mapped out various hazards the communities are facing and dimensions of their vulnerabilities to these hazards.

Table 5.1. Summary of the Community Survey

# of FGDs # of District Taluka/Tehsil Union Village /Locality # of FGDs # of FGDs with questionnaire Council surveyed with men with women children conducted

Goth Muhammad Ghotki Daharki Bairuta 1 1 1 14 Ismail (Mauza Khainjoo) Habib Ullah Ghotki Qadir Pur Chachar (Mauza 1 1 1 6 Kham) Raees Jamal Ghotki Bagu Dho 1 1 1 18 Chachar

Khairpur Gambat Khaimtia Gulu Sial 1 1 23

Gambat Ripri Sadaq Kalhoro 1 1 24

Muhammad Thatta Thatta Sonda 1 0 Yousaf Halaya

Thatta Jhampir Marak Jakhro 1 1 14

Hashim Palari 1 1 5

Kharo Chan Kharo Chan Deh Bablo 1 3 24

Keti Bunder Keti Bunder Keti Bunder 2 1 10

Page 65 Besides Official Statistics: The State of Vulnerable Communities and Groups SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK

Table 5.1: (Continue)

# of FGDs # of District Taluka/Tehsil Union Village /Locality # of FGDs # of FGDs with questionnaire Council surveyed with men with women children conducted

Layyah Layyah Lohanch Lohanch Nasheb 1 1 0

Layyah Jhakar Basti Jhakar 1 1 41

Basti Maachi Karor Lal Baseera 1 1 1 32 Easan (Mauza Baseera)

Chobara Khaire Wala Lundi Khoo 1 0 0

Chobara Bai Khoo 1 0 0

Nalka Adda Muzaffargarh Ali Pur Mud Wala (Mauza Moazuz 1 1 1 9 Din) Basti Urla (Mauza Ali Pur 1 1 1 28 Langar Wah Misan Kot Buhwa) Chah Malik Wala Jagat (No 39) 1 1 15 Muzaffargarh (Mauza Din Pur)

Muzaffargarh UC No. 35 Karim Abad 1 0

Saldera/Shehr Vehari Burewala Basti Raju Shah 1 1 23 Farid

Mailsi Waisi Wahn Aadli Wala 1 1 1 30

Mailsi Fateh Pur Fateh Pur 1 6

Basti Bait Mullah Rajanpur Rajanpur Kot Mithan Gopang (Mauza 1 1 1 16 Mullah Gopang) Jam Pur Harand Rahim Dad Chanal 3 1 1 46

Basti/Mauza Khan Jam Pur Kotla Dewan 2 2 44 Wah

Total 29 23 9 428

Page 66 Besides Official Statistics: The State of Vulnerable Communities and Groups SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK

5.1. The Community Survey Process framework (for FGDs) and household The communities selected for this questionnaire. survey were identified during the initial consultation process with the As the target region is prone to local governments and the civil society flooding, communities residing in organizations. Both the stakeholders flood prone locations were given were requested to help the research priority. However the desert team map out the areas often hit by communities residing in Layyah, hazards, especially flooding, drought, Ghotki, Khairpur and Thatta (Kohistan) cyclones (in case of Thatta) and other were also studied. The household risks worth studying, keeping in sight survey was conducted by the social the scope of this research. mobilization/organization staff of the Table 5.2: Sex of Respondents local civil society organizations (Household Survey) Having identified such areas, the civil engaged as volunteers. Senior staff society organizations were requested members of these organizations Sex of respondents Number % to help the research team identify 2-3 facilitated focus group discussions in most vulnerable communities residing the identified communities. Male 239 56 in the identified areas. 5.1.1. Limitations Female 189 44 The findings presented here are based Like all the research work, this study on the case studies of 25 too is not free from limitations. The Total 428 100 communities/settlements in 24 union limited time available for the research, councils located in 15 tehsils of seven extensive traveling involved to reach sampled districts. The information was the communities, security risks collected through 29 focus group attached with traveling back late from discussions with men, 23 with women the surveyed locations and rains Table 5.3: Age groups of and nine with children (less than 18 across Punjab and Sindh in December respondents years of age) at these locations. The 2008, would leave little time to spend (Household Survey) living conditions and views of 428 with the communities, hold extensive households at these locations were discussions with various groups and Age Group Number % also documented using a conduct a large number of household comprehensive questionnaire (Please questionnaires. 18 or below 12 3 see annexure 4) for the information collection tools employed in the To overcome these limitations, 19 - 25 66 15 community survey. Out of the 428 information collection tools were respondents of the household designed in a way to complement 26 - 40 193 45 questionnaire, 56% were male and each other and provide options to 44% female. cross check the information. Personal 41 - 50 81 19 observations and experiences of the Information from the participants of core research team and those of 51 and above 76 18 focus group discussions was collected facilitating local civil society using a research framework containing organizations and activists, and Total 428 100 sets of questions on housing, secondary information available was demography, livelihoods, assets and also employed to overcome the vulnerability etc. shortcomings of the primary information collected in this phase. Information from children was collected using a hazard, vulnerability and capacity matrix. The same matrix was employed with research

Page 67 Besides Official Statistics: The State of Vulnerable Communities and Groups SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK

5.2. What the Residents Say: Findings of the Household Survey

5.2.1. Braving the risks for generations Except three, all the communities surveyed were reported to have been residing at their respective locations for generations. Though documentary proofs and physical marks that could testify these claims were not found in case of most of the communities, there are no reasons not to believe their claims. In Kharo Chaan, Deh Babloo for instance, there still exists the place from which Kharo Chaan taluka derives its name. Likewise, detailed accounts of some locations like Keti Bunder, Nara etc are found in historical records like District Gazetteers (that date back to pre partition of Indian subcontinent), books, topographical maps of Survey of Pakistan, local government's revenue records and district census reports.

Documentary and oral records of the surveyed communities suggest that these communities have been braving the hazards and living with various risks for long. In the course of time they have developed a certain level of resistance and coping mechanisms that enable them to continue their lives and livelihoods, no matter how fragile they have proved to be in these riskiest of the habitats. An octogenarian man narrating the stories of good old days of Kharo Chaan 5.2.2. Demographic trends when it used to be a bustling trade center in Thatta. Most of the riverine communities or settlements were found to have compact grouping of dozens of houses and larger population sizes when Table 5.4: Size of children population in the surveyed communities compared to those residing in the Population aged Population aged1 0+ 1648 837 desert locations. The desert 10 and below communities were found to be residing in small clusters of houses Male 754 Male 456 loosely grouped together. Female 894 Female 381

Page 68 What the Residents Say: Findings of the Household Survey SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK

People all over the identified areas Table 5.5: Size of population, 18 and below were found generally favoring large families with a clear preference for Population Aged 18 1381 male children. Joint family system was and below noted loosening its grip. This trend is reflected in the large number of household heads aged 20 to 40 years. Male 746 The survey results point that 48% household heads fall in this age bracket and 98% of all household heads are Female 635 males.

The 428 households surveyed for this research are composed of 2,485 souls - 1,210 males and 1,275 females. Of this 33% population was reported to age 10 years and below while 55% was Table 5.6: Age group of household heads recorded to belong to the age group 18 Age group of the years and below. The average Number % age household head household size in the surveyed locations was noted to be 5.8 persons. 18 or below 4 1 The male female gender ratio in the age group 10 and below was found to 19-25 43 10 be 1.19 or 119 male children against every 100 female children. This ratio in 26-40 164 38 the age group 18 and below was enumerated to be 1.17 or 117 male children against every 100 female 41-50 95 22 children/youth. 51 and above 122 29 5.2.3. Housing Majority of the housing stock, Total 428 100 especially at the flood and cyclone (in case of Thatta) prone locations has an architecture of poverty and fear. Locally and cheaply made or freely available materials, local climate, hazards and resourcelessness of the residents appear to determine the housing Table 5.7: Total population of the surveyed conditions at these locations. communities

At Keti Bunder and Kharo Chaan, for Total Population 2485 instance, the communities live with a constant risk of being hit by coastal storms or cyclones. Utter poverty and Male 1210 lack of choices, especially for the communities living in creeks and the delta region is reflected in their housing structures constructed of Female 1275 tamarisk wood frames and roofs and

Page 69 What the Residents Say: Findings of the Household Survey SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK walls of grass mats (chitai).

Similarly in the Kohistan area of Thatta people are living in temporary shelters or huts reflecting their landlessness and fear of migration. At majority of the riverine locations, houses are constructed on raised platforms or low lying mounds (normally made of debris of houses collapsed in the previous floods). Kharo Chaan, In the riverine locations of Punjab and Thatta: A Sindh and those at the risk of hill traditional torrents, people are found to have housing structure. constructed their houses with an incremental approach. The housing structures are gradually constructed Table 5.8: Housing space and improved over time as and when the resources permit and construction Number of rooms Houses % age materials are available. Most of these houses are either mud (katcha) structures or semi pacca houses One Room 227 53 (built of brick and mud mortar or half katcha and half pacca). Two Rooms 125 29

More than half or 53% of the Three rooms 34 8 households in the surveyed communities are living in single room Four Rooms 27 6 houses, 29% in 2-room houses while 14% are residing in 3 or 4 room 5 or more rooms 15 4 houses. A small proportion or 3.5% households are living in big houses Total 428 100 comprising 5 or more rooms.

Most of the households at the Table 5.9: Housing Facilities surveyed locations opt to defecate in the open. Latrines inside or adjacent Number of Facility %age to housing structures are available to Houses less than one fifth of the households. Latrines 76 18 More than 4/5th of the households have access to an in-house water Source of water 73 17 source, generally a hand pump. The outside the house rest of the households either bring Motor Pumps 29 7 water from an outside source or purchase it from water suppliers. A Electricity 251 59 peculiar example is Thatta where almost all the houses surveyed at Mobile Phones 167 39 Marak Jakhro, Keti Bunder and Kharo Chaan were found purchasing water Landline Phone Facility 12 3 from commercial suppliers/water Page 70 What the Residents Say: Findings of the Household Survey SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK tankers.

Motor pumps for extracting ground water have been installed by a small number of households. Seven per cent houses were found to have access to this facility. Not a single location was found to have piped water supply.

41% households at the surveyed Kharo Chaan, Thatta: locations are living without electricity Traditional transport from the national grid. It was noted modes provide livelihood that where electricity was supplied to to many poor households a location most of the households were availing the facility. At eight locations (2 in Thall, Layyah, where Table 5.10: Economically active children (11-18 years) household survey could not be conducted) electricity is not available Economically Active Children 216 at all.

Only 3% households were found Male 182 having access to the land-line phone facility. The landline phone facility is Female 34 available to 4 settlements. Compared to this, 39% households are using at Table 5.11: Livelihood Source of the Household Heads least one mobile phone while 15 % Number of households own a TV set or a radio or Livelihood Source % age both. Households

5.2.4. Livelihood patterns Agriculture 216 50.5 The household survey results throw light on the economic conditions and Fishing 18 4.2 livelihood options and strategies of Government the surveyed 13 3.0 communities/households. A large Jobs proportion especially of the male Private Jobs 8 1.9 population is contributing in some way to the household income. Trading 15 3.5 More than 30% population in the surveyed communities is economically Services 18 4.2 active (EAP) or reported to contribute to the household income. The EAP Construction 1 0.2 includes 15% females. Children aged 11-18 years have a considerable share Transport 2 0.5 in the EAP, making up 28.7% of which 84% are boys and 16% girls. Overall, Labor 137 32.0 24.4% male and 5.4% female children between the ages of 11 and 18 are economically active. A considerably Total 428 100.0

Page 71 What the Residents Say: Findings of the Household Survey SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK high proportion of women and girls in Jampur/Rajanpur was reported to Table 5.12: Economically active population have a contribution in the household Economically Active economies or incomes. Population Number Percentage

Agriculture is the major livelihood Male 642 85.3 source for half the households. Menial and seasonal labor inside the village, Female 111 14.7 in the neighboring towns or other cities of the country is the livelihood Total 753 100% option for 32% households.

Government and private jobs absorb a small portion or 5% of the household heads. Fishing was noted to be the Table 5.13: Education level of household heads main livelihood source for majority of Number of the households in Thatta's coastal Education Level %age HH communities at Kharo Chaan and Keti Bunder. Illiterate 277 64.7

The land ownership patterns are also Below Primary 14 3.3 consistent with the trends reflected in the households' options to earn their Primary 77 18.0 livelihoods. As many as 47% households reported to own Primary but below Middle 3 0.7 productive or non productive lands while 41% households are landless. Middle 30 7.0 Livestock appears to hold an extremely important place in the Middle but non matriculate 4 0.9 livelihood and food security strategies of households with 86% households Matriculate 15 3.5 owning some kind of livestock, especially buffaloes, cattle, goat and Intermediate and above 8 1.9 sheep. Total 428 100.0 5.2.5. Education and literacy The surveyed communities have a dismal state of education and literacy when compared with education and literacy data of their respective districts, provinces and the overall Table 5.14: Proportion of literate population national figures. Literate Population 356 21.6% Aged 10+ Literacy among the population aged 10+ has been recorded as 21.6% of Male 279 37.0% which 37% are male and 8.6% female. A further analysis of the education and Female 77 8.6% literacy related data unveils the fact that there are at least eight

Page 72 What the Residents Say: Findings of the Household Survey SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK communities where literacy among Table 5.15: Common Health Disorders Number ofHH females is zero. These include Basti Common Diseases % age of HH Raju Shah (Vehari/Bahawalnagar), complained Khanwah and Basti Chandya Fever 341 79.7 (Rajanpur), Basti Habib Ullah Chachar and Jamal Din Chachar (Ghotki), Gulu Sial and Sadiq Kalhoro in Khairpur. In Loose Motion 139 32.5 Basti Chandiya, and Marak Jakhro, literacy among men/boys is also noted Diarrhea 149 34.8 to be zero. As many as 65% household heads in the surveyed areas are Hepatitis 103 24.1 illiterate while 18% have completed primary level education. Eye ailments 123 28.7

5.2.6. Health Tuberculosis 86 20.1 The household survey results reveal that 7.5% population (7.4% male and Asthma 97 22.7 7.7% female) are caught up in health disorders/diseases that are considered Pneumonia 88 20.6 fatal. Skin 14 3.3 A worryingly high proportion of diseases/ailments households reported to have some member suffering from life threatening disease. One fifth of the cases relate to tuberculosis and 1/4th Table 5.16: Population suffering with fatal diseases hepatitis. Population Suffering with 188 Fatal Diseases Seasonal fevers were reported to be the most common ailment with 80% Male 90 of the households complaining of these. Diarrhea among infants and Female 98 children and pneumonia are also common disorders while skin diseases were found to have an unexpectedly low prevalence.

5.2.7. Vulnerability to hazards The households reported that they Basti Raees Jamal were affected by a variety of hazards Chachar,Ghotki: A which have serious impacts on their young boy lives, assets and means of livelihood. having his leg Floods, heavy rains, strong affected by winds/storms and frost are among the polio. People here prominent ones. complain that due to remoteness of Most of the communities surveyed are their village, residing at locations that are vaccination teams consistently affected by floods, heavy do not visit their seasonal rains and storms. The coastal village.

Page 73 What the Residents Say: Findings of the Household Survey SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK communities in Thatta live with the Table 5.17: Impacts of disasters risk posed by cyclones, storm surges, Impacts of Disasters Number % age high tidal activity and sea intrusion.

Damage to houses or shelters is noted Death 32 7.5 to be the most common impact of these hazards followed by damage to Injury 7 1.6 crops. 70% households reported damage to their dwellings caused by Disability 6 1.4 floods, rains, storms or cyclones (Thatta), while 58% said their own Damage to house 296 69.2 crops or those grown in their settlements are affected. Damage to livestock 141 32.9 Damage to Some 40% households reported that 182 42.5 they find the productivity of their Agriculture Land lands declining. Damage to livestock is Reduction in the also reported by considerably high productivity of the 170 39.7 number of households. land Damage to crops 248 57.9 The role of outside agencies like government departments and non- Damage to 139 32.5 government organizations appears to household items be non existent when it comes to Damage to public provision of assistance in an infrastructure and 58 13.6 emergency/disaster situation, with services 97% households subscribing to this claim. Only 13 households or three per cent of the total (most of them residing in Keti Bunder and Kharo Chaan) acknowledge to having received some kind of government assistance in the past.

Boundary wall of a house collapsed due to heavy rains in Muzaffargrh, is being repaired.

Page 74 What the Residents Say: Findings of the Household Survey SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK

5.3: Findings of the Community Survey

5.3.1. Who are the most vulnerable? The flood prone communities in general and deltaic and desert communities in particular are physically marginalized. The extremely vulnerable flood prone communities in Sindh were found to be those residing inside the protective bunds that have been constructed on both sides of the river Indus to contain its flood water. The main course or bed of river Indus in Sindh is higher than the surrounding lands due to which water over-flown from its banks during flooding cannot return to the river. These communities bear heavy losses in case of very high or super floods. Even during normal times when water level rises in the river, these communities have to face The physical distance involved in reaching flooding like situation as they are these communities deters officials, trapped inside man-made enclaves government servants like school teachers, inundated with water. mobile health staff, agriculture extension workers, relief providers (in case an In Punjab the most vulnerable emergency situation is created), and even communities were found to be those non government organizations as residing at the river banks or between logistical convenience, road bias and a river's branches. One such security concerns dominate their day to community is Bait Mullah Gopang in day working. Rajanpur the residents of which were found to have a minimal physical, Physical isolation of the hazard prone social and economic link with the communities was noted to have outside world. They move along the transformed into their social, economic river in search of freely available lands and political marginalization which in turn to cultivate for their sustenance. has rendered them unable to reach the centers of administrative and financial The most vulnerable deltaic or coastal powers that be. This was found to have communities were found to be those resulted in minimal coverage of these residing inside the creeks created at communities by social and economic the mouth of river Indus. Mere services available to 'normal' areas. Lack existence of some of these of services, especially in the areas of communities is unknown to local health, education and road connectivity, government officials. was noted to have been contributing heavily in keeping their marginalization, Likewise, the communities residing vulnerability and poverty intact. deep into the deserts are considered too far and too scattered to be 5.3.2. The missing state accessed by the concerned agencies. Some communities surveyed are

Page 75 Findings of the Community Survey SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK completely living on their own without temporary by outsiders but are any mark of state's existence in terms permanent for their occupants. These of infrastructure like schools, health structures normally fail to withstand facilities, roads or transport facilities. In floods, storms, heavy rains and strong Basti Raju Shah located in district winds. The housing issue of these Vehari on the border with district communities is complex and has Bahawalnagar, there is no road, no multiple dimensions. For instance, due school, no dispensary or any other to floods communities do not facility the state is responsible to construct permanent housing or provide. Here the people complain that improve the existing stock, and due to both district administrations in poor housing they are quite vulnerable Bahawalnagar and Vehari consider this to flooding. area in the jurisdiction of the other and hence the residents are denied even The housing issue also needs to be the basic amenities and live in looked at in the context of rural complete isolation. A similar case was housing problems where lack of found in Mullah Gopang and same in entitlement of the residents on their communities residing deep in the existing housing lands, poverty, deserts or in the creeks. primitiveness of existing structures and poorly conceived new 5.3.3. Education and health services on construction technologies, make the top of the wish list issue quite complex. As mentioned earlier, the literacy figures are extremely low among the 5.3.5. Livelihood and vulnerability surveyed communities, and in some There is a direct relationship between cases approaching zero. It was found individuals' and households' livelihood that where functional schools are options and vulnerability to available within or near the disasters/hazards. Farmers were found settlements, people do benefit from to be most vulnerable among all the them. For instance, Basti Jakhar which livelihood groups as their income is the center of the union council, sources are exposed to a variety of appears to have much improved natural and man-made hazards. For literacy figures and a considerable instance, besides flooding, the crops number of men and women is are recurrently damaged whenever educated, some landing the prized there are heavy rains, storms, heat government jobs. Across all the waves, frost, droughts and pest communities where education and attacks. The market chains of their health facilities do not exist at all, produce also do not normally function people demand forcefully for the in their favor and they stand dually provision of at least these basic disadvantaged. For instance poor facilities. transport infrastructure available to these communities increases the cost 5.3.4. Too weak to protect, too risky to of transporting agriculture inputs and improve produce and keeping in touch with say Housing is one of the biggest agriculture and livestock departments determinants of communities' and credit institutions. vulnerability to hazards. At all the sites, housing is found to be dominated by 5.3.6. Absence and excess of water adobe structures and shelters termed Water management for irrigation and

Page 76 Findings of the Community Survey SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK drinking is most complex of the 5.3.8. Active but neglected complex issues. In the desert, hilly Women, children and youth are found tracts of Thatta, and piedmont plains to be active contributors to household of Rajanpur, the absence or scarcity of economies especially in agriculture, water for irrigation and drinking is livestock and fishing sectors. However badly affecting people's livelihood and there is an outright neglect of this fact health. In the flood prone sites poor in official statistics and programs. water management has created an alarming situation. Water tables are 5.3.9. Living on the edges falling owing to heavy dependence on The physical boundaries between the ground water. Especially in Sindh, the sampled districts are determined by lands are affected by water logging rivers: Chenab and Indus in case of and salinity while in the delta region, Muzaffargarh, Satluj in case of Vehari the absence of Indus's sweet water and Indus for remaining districts. The and silt it brings is inviting sea to take communities living along the rivers are the place left by the river. thus living on the edges of the districts. The riverine locations in both 5.3.7. The political overtones of water Punjab (especially Rajanpur and management and distribution works Vehari) and Sindh (especially Ghotki At a number of sites the political and Khairpur) provide safer abodes to implications of water management criminals. Being the boundary and distribution works are clearly between districts, rivers provide highlighted. For instance in Khairpur criminals with easier and shortest and Rajanpur the communities possible path to cross into neighboring reported that the flood protection districts to dodge police. The passage work carried out to save the lands of and presence of criminal elements has influential ones, has made their own also contributed to the lands vulnerable to floods as the underdevelopment of these natural drainage patterns have been communities as outside agencies disturbed. In Muzaffargarh, the hesitate to travel to these locations. In construction of spurs has technical Ghotki and Khairpur, communities faults and shortcomings. These spurs report that police raids and constructed primarily to arrest river encounters have become a routine, erosion and protect important towns, roads are not safe, and service are contributing directly in causing providers like teachers, health staff et flooding and increasing river erosion al are reluctant to be appointed in for poor communities. In Layyah, the these areas. older community members at Lohance Nasheb maintain that before the 5.3.10. Engineering solutions are construction of protective bunds along favored and engineering miracles are river Indus, the overflow of water had expected a large area to spread over. With these Communities at all the riverine and bunds, the overflow has been coastal locations were found favoring restricted to a smaller area and engineering solutions like diversion of therefore the height of water during river's course, construction of floods is much more than it used to protection bunds, spurs etc. At not a be, damaging the communities single location the solutions involving residing inside the bund areas. natural resources' management were suggested. For instance, it is now well

Page 77 Findings of the Community Survey SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK known and documented that heavy urban areas. The vulnerability to deforestation at river banks and in the disasters in rural settlements is thus mangrove forests has increased the contributing to urbanization. damages caused by rivers in the Karimabad in Muzaffargarh, coastal former and cyclones in the latter case. communities in Kharo Chaan and Keti Likewise, the razing of natural Bunder and Mullah Gopang in vegetation and increasing livestock Rajanpur are examples in this regard. population in the desert zones has contributed to micro climate changes, 5.3.14. Disaster footprints of soil erosion and loss of biodiversity to development works, communities are which communities have a direct paying the price contribution. The communities and settlements in Rajanpur's hill torrent zone, those 5.3.11. The social disasters residing in Keenjho, Ghotki, and in the Tribal conflicts have come forth as one delta region and along Keenjhar lake of the major hazards posed to are facing the disaster footprints of communities especially in Ghotki and mega development works. In Rajanpur Rajanpur. Over the years these the under construction Katchi canal is conflicts have claimed scores of planned to take Indus's water to precious human lives and the affected Balochistan. Recently, the canal families thrown to abject poverty and proved obstructive to the natural consistent social and economic drainage pattern of hill torrents and vulnerability. Communities in Khairpur, exacerbated the flooding caused by Ghotki and Rajanpur also complained them. Similarly communities in Ghotki of the Sardari system as mother of all fear that the under construction the ills and a sustainer of their poverty Ranny canal planned to take water and underdevelopment. downstream to Sanghar and Tharparker will contribute to the 5.3.12. Absence of non state actors water logging of the area. These Not a single non government or communities are already facing the community based organization was disastrous outcome of saline water found working in the surveyed being pumped from upstream locations except two. In Keti Bunder Sadiqabad/Rahimyar Khan, Punjab, the WWF is maintaining its 'Indus For into the desert zone of Ghotki. This All' program under which one of the saline water has swallowed thousands major activities is to form youth of acres of desert that were previously groups and launch mangrove used as grazing land for livestock and plantation campaigns. At Kharo Chaan contained natural ponds to store and Marak Jakhro, PAIMAAN, a local rainwater. Water tables have risen to NGO was found to have constructed dangerous levels and a severe water school buildings. However these are logging issue has developed. Hundreds not functional. of livestock is reported to have perished in the marshes developed by 5.3.13. Migration is the last resort for this stray water. some The consistent vulnerability to hazard The communities residing along and risk has exhausted some Keenjhar forcefully complain to have communities' capacity to adapt. They lost considerable fish stock owing to are thus forced to migrate, mostly to pollution of the lake caused by

Page 78 Findings of the Community Survey SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK upstream Nooriabad industrial estate. construction of bunds/spur and Similarly the coastal communities are embankments. In Rajanpur, the the victims of barrages, dams and management of hill torrents requires water distribution works on Indus that new water works (construction of have obstructed the river from flowing structures etc) and reengineering of downstream Kotri barrage and push water schemes (Katchi canal that has back the intruding sea. resulted in obstructing the drainage pattern of hill torrents). In Vehari, the 5.3.15. Expectations from the communities are residing and government cultivating right in the midst of the At all the surveyed locations bed of river Sutlej. A sustainable communities were found with solution requires resettlement of expectations from the government to these communities in safer places. step in for improving their living conditions. The hazard protection schemes expected and proposed by the communities involve heavy investments that only governments can proceed with. For instance in Kharo Chaan the communities repeatedly emphasized their need to Chemical laden waste get protected from sea intrusion. They water from industries demand construction of a circular in Nooriabad bund on the pattern of one Industrial Estate is constructed around Keti Bunder some causing pollution in years back which provides a degree of Keenjhar Lake- one of protection from sea intrusion and the most significant inundation. fresh water lakes of Sindh. 5.3.16. Community based disaster risk reduction has a limited scope in some cases In some cases sustainable disaster risk reduction needs mega initiatives, both structural and non structural, involving huge finances. A community based approach will therefore not provide sustainable solutions. For instance, in case of Thatta the sea intrusion has so far claimed hundreds of thousands of acres of land in the district. Non availability of sufficient water in downstream Indus is considered to have contributed to sea intrusion, The under- destruction of mangroves and scarcity construction of both surface and underground Katchi canal in sweet water sources. In Muzaffargarh Rajanpur is being and elsewhere river erosion has blamed by many increased manifold due to ill planned as a human induced disaster.

Page 79 Findings of the Community Survey

SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK

S

S

E

L

E

C

I

O V The research matrix contained

5.4. Voices of the Voiceless This study has a special focus on questions about hazards faced by the children - not merely to collect communities, their season of E information about them but to get occurrence, impacts they cause and information from them. Nine focus ways to mitigate those impacts. In due

group discussions were held with course children were also asked about H children and youth using a hazard and their development needs. vulnerability matrix. The same matrix T was employed for discussions with 5.4.1. State of children in the older men and women and also for surveyed districts and communities: collecting information from According to the 1998 census, on

F households. average 35% population of the districts is below the age of 10 and In all the group discussions with almost half of the population is 18 O children, it was noted that they posses years or below. This trend also reflects sufficient knowledge of their in the demographic information community and their household's collected from the communities.

S social and economic conditions. They could very well articulate the local All the selected districts stand lower

living conditions, risks they face and on the human development ladder. E services they need or expect. Still, the Their performance on children and communities felt strange about the women related human development

C inclusion of children in the indicators are not encouraging. Low levels of literacy, absence of social

I discussions, and about the fact that kids were asked the same questions services, especially schools, and poor that were put to adults. quality of education delivery are some

O The focus group discussions were held of them. In the health sector, pre and with young children (around 10 years post natal care from a formal health

of age) and with youth (18 or below). facility is available to a very small V

Page 80 Findings of the Community Survey

SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK

proportion of women, especially in rural of children said they were not fearful of areas. A large proportion (in some cases river in normal times as they take bath S as high as 40%) of children (12- 23 in it and take their buffaloes for months) is yet to be fully immunized. washing, “but after the flood we are

S fearful”. 5.4.2. Children's views and suggestions

Here is a précis of the discussions held In Layyah, during a focus group E with children. discussion, the children said they did not like rains in winter. Giving reasons L Fears of losing shelter, running out of they explained that whenever there is food stock and perishing of the livestock heavy rain, water spreads everywhere.

E are uppermost in the minds of the “If it is in winter, the temperature drops, young. At all the flood prone locations mud tracks become marshy and we are children's memories of floods are unable to reach school. If we manage to C dotted with damage to the houses, reach school, the class rooms are too I displacement, insecurity, loss of cold to sit in. We suggest that if you livestock and food shortages. (research team) want to do something for us, provide us boiled eggs in winter O In Vehari, for instance, a group of which relieve the cold” they added. children told us: “In the rainy season we

V remain fearful of floods. In the most In Rajanpur and Ghotki where flood

recent flood this year (2008) a kid who prone locations are also considered was our friend drowned in the river. We unsafe due to festering tribal conflicts

have also lost an old man whom all of us and heavy movement of criminals, the E called grandfather. He would come to youth was especially found fearful and our village by crossing the river on a clay affected with these conflicts. The

H pitcher. He used to tell us stories and children and youth at these locations everything that we were curious about. reported that often the tribal clashes

Few days back he drowned in the river linger on and the situation goes from T while crossing the river. A woman had bad to worse. “People are attacked and come from Multan to see her relatives mobility is extremely restricted.” in our village. She died of snake bite. In Ghotki children said when there is a F When there is high flood our houses are severe conflict, their schools are closed. damaged. Our parents are poor and so “Last time our school remained closed

we are not able to construct pacca for more than three months as the O

houses. When our houses were teacher was unable to travel safely”.

destroyed, we moved in with our relatives who live in Fatehpur (a nearby In Vehari, explaining the impact of

S town). The displacement makes us very conflicts, children said they are among sad as we are detached from our the most affected when an elder male

E friends.” member is killed or caught by police, as they (children) and their mothers are Responding to a question on loss of left to fend for themselves. C livestock, one kid said: “Animals are our

I family members. When any of them Children at all the locations strongly dies, it's like losing a family member.” voiced their need for schools. The urge Children at all the locations said they to get education was found to be quite O love livestock and happily feed them strong especially among the girl

and take care of them. The same group children. “We need school and V

Page 81 Findings of the Community Survey SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK

playground,” children in Ghotki Children as young as 3-4 years of age

demanded. are sometimes engaged/married. S Children in Rajanpur and Ghotki Kids were also found to be concerned

S reported that vaccination teams do not about the economic woes of their visit their villages. parents in the wake of a calamity. At various locations children said their E At all the locations it was noted that parents went under debt after children are not mere victims as they sustaining losses at the hands of a L take active part in early warning, calamity. evacuation, reconstruction and

E rehabilitation when a hazard strikes. About early warning systems and relief work, the children reported that In response to the question as to why government teams do not visit their C rivers bring flood, children at all the village. In Vehari, a group of kids told us:

I locations were found to be of the view “During the recent flood two soldiers that when glaciers melt or India releases came to the high school in Fatehpur but water, it causes inundation in the river. never bothered to visit our village. They O provided relief to only those who were At all the flood prone locations, children least affected by the flood.”

V recommended the construction of

bunds as a way to arrest flooding. In When asked about their needs, the Vehari the girl children were of the view unanimous response of children was to

that if it was up to them, they would provide them with toys, play ground E construct a protection bund on their and schools. It is to be noted that at own. most of the locations surveyed, schools

H either do not exist or they are non- About the impact of floods and heavy functioning due to widespread teacher rains, children said they hate to fall sick absenteeism. Children at all the T but in the rainy season many children locations are fond of mobile phones and get sick. They were found to remember anxious to get one. many stories of damages inflicted by F flooding and heavy rains. The household survey results reveal that male children hold an important In Layyah, the young ones said when place in maintaining the family order O there are storms or strong winds, kids and carrying the family name. For get lost and at least once some women instance a very small number of women slipped into the river. were found heading households. When

S further probed it was learnt that if a In Thall desert, the shepherd children widow has a male child, the household

E said they are fearful of dust storms. “We is recognized by his name. are afraid of dust storms, as we get lost and sometimes our sheep and goats Female children and youth were found

C too. We would suggest you to construct to be active contributors to the

I shelters in the desert where we could household economy by working in the take refuge.” fields and taking care of younger siblings. The survey results also show O Child marriages are found to be that children aged 10+ are becoming

common in much of the surveyed area. part of the labor force and contributing V

Page 82 Findings of the Community Survey SECTION 5 NEIGHBORING RISK

in one way or another to the household During the research process we also income. came across children challenged with

S disabilities. In Marak Jakhro, Thatta, a In Thatta and Keti Bunder youth groups child with polio was found to have been

S were found to be front runners in abandoned. It was told that his father protecting the environment. WWF has had died and his mother is unable to launched a mangrove plantation take care of him. Being abandoned, the E campaign in these areas which is being child gradually turned mentally spearheaded by the local youth. When retarded. L asked about the outcome of their efforts, one of the youth answered: “We In Rajanpur and Ghotki a number of

E don't see this work as something that children were observed suffering with may or may not succeed. We know only polio. It was told that polio vaccination

one thing, it has to be successful.” teams do not visit these areas.

C

I

O

V

E

H

T

F

O

S

E

C

I

O V

Page 83 Findings of the Community Survey SECTION 6 NEIGHBORING RISK

Section 6: Responding to Hazards: Responses and Capacities of Local Governments and Civil Society Organizations

6.1. Research Process Plans (if prepared) The second phase of the research was 8. Any other useful but relevant reserved for collecting information documents/maps. primarily from the respective district governments, civil society organizations From Civil Society Organizations: (especially local ones) and the media. A 1. Organizational profile flexible research framework was 2. Useful but relevant project prepared based upon the Local documents (if they agree to share) Government Ordinance 2001, National 3. Documents or reports prepared on Disaster Management Framework, aspects related to disaster management Guidelines by National Disaster (if available). Management Authority for preparing District Disaster Management Plans, From Press Clubs: Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), the 1.Features/news items on local disaster alternative perspective of disaster events management proposed by Duryog Nivaran (www.duryognivaran.org), Request letters for meeting were sent to inception report prepared for this study district coordination officers and district and RDPI's own experience. nazims in all the districts requesting them to facilitate the process and Separate set of questions were framed meetings with heads/representatives of to be asked of district government the concerned departments. A list of officials/elected representatives (district officials/elected representatives to be nazims), civil society organizations and met in each district was prepared. These the local media. A list of essential officials included but not limited to: documents to be collected from the stakeholders was prepared. These 1. District Nazim documents include but not limited to: 2. District Coordination Officer (DCO) 3. District Officer (DO)/Deputy District From Local Governments: Officer (DDO) Coordination (whatever 1. District Disaster Management Plan (if may be the case) prepared) 4. Executive District Officer (EDO) 2. Flood Fighting/Contingency Plan Revenue (prepared by the local governments in 5. EDO, Finance and Planning flood prone districts) 6. EDO, Works and Services 3. Public Sector Development 7. EDO, Agriculture and Livestock Program/Annual Development Plan(s) 8. EDO, Social Welfare/Community 4. District Budget Brief Development 5. List of functional non government 9. EDO Health organizations and Citizen Community 10. Executive Engineer/Sub Divisional Boards registered with District Social Officer Irrigation Welfare/Community Development 11. District Officer Civil Defense. Department. Lists of local organizations registered 6. District Profiles (if prepared/available) with the Social Welfare/Community 7. Medium and Long Term Development Development Departments were taken

Page 84 Responding to Hazards: Responses and Capacities of Local Governments and Civil Society Organizations SECTION 6 NEIGHBORING RISK and meetings were held with some of prevalent in the district and their the active organizations. Preference ranking. was given to meeting organizations having a track record of working on During the course of interaction with some aspects of disaster management respondents, a capacity assessment in or environment. However where such terms of their understanding, response organizations could not be found, mechanism, capacities and gaps, and meetings were held with the priorities etc was also undertaken. organizations working in other social sectors. Besides these local The last phase of the research was organizations, in some districts reserved to share the broader and meetings were also held with national relevant findings with the local or international organizations currently governments and civil society working in the districts under study. In organizations. Six consultative meetings addition to relying on the information in this phase were organized - one at provided by Social Welfare/Community each district except Vehari where Development Department, information DOABA Foundation was tasked to do it about the active civil society as it has undertaken a localized and organizations was also collected from detailed study on the same subject in other sources. For instance the flood Vehari, commissioned by Plan Pakistan. fighting plans normally contain, besides other details, the names and contact 6.1.1. Limitations details of the local civil society The information presented in this organizations. Please see annexure 10 report is based upon: for a list of local government officials, civil society organizations, political - Interaction with respective district representatives and journalists government officials, representatives of contacted for this research. civil society organizations, political figures and the media. The broader research questions included: - Documents collected from the local governments (especially the district 1. The major hazards/risks in the district disaster management plans, flood 2. Underlying causes of these fighting plans, budget briefs etc) hazards/risks 3. History of major disaster events - Observations and assessments of the 4. The impacts of identified disasters research team. 5. Location of vulnerable areas and communities (hazard mapping) As mentioned earlier, requests for 6. Response mechanism of local meeting were made to the respective government, civil society and media in district nazim (Elected Head of District the disaster events Government) in each district. However 7. Early warning systems conventionally at none of the districts the research employed or being employed team could see the respective nazim 8. Human and financial resources mainly due to their non availability. The available for Disaster Risk Reduction reason was found to be a separation of 9. Suggestions for reducing disaster district nazims from the mainstream risks local government affairs/administration 10. Other major development issues owing to a strategy of the current

Page 85 Responding to Hazards: Responses and Capacities of Local Governments and Civil Society Organizations SECTION 6 NEIGHBORING RISK provincial governments that prefers to departments. In some districts the run local government affairs through required documents were either not District Coordination Officers and rest available or were promised to be of the local bureaucracy rather than provided later. the elected representatives. Except from Khairpur and Ghotki, all In some districts like Khairpur, Layyah the DCOs and relevant EDOs and Muzaffargarh, meetings with local participated and shared their programs media could not be arranged.In some and priorities with respect to their districts due to non availability of districts in the last phase of the study. concerned officials (owing to their They also shared their concerns and being on leave or positions being suggestions on the research work and vacant) the research team could not its findings which have been record their views and collect required accommodated in this report. documents. For instance in Rajanpur three executive district officers are posted against 11 positions and each EDO is taking care of three to four

Rajanpur: A consultative meeting with district administration. The District Coordination Officer is in chair.

Page 86 Responding to Hazards: Responses and Capacities of Local Governments and Civil Society Organizations SECTION 6 NEIGHBORING RISK

6.2: Major Findings

6.2.1. Both conventional and non disasters for the communities. conventional hazards and risks are prevalent 6.2.2. Disaster Risk Reduction is not Besides the prevalence of conventional among the priorities of the local hazards like floods and droughts in all governments the districts, the respondents in each In all the districts 'Disaster Risk district also identified non conventional Reduction' was noted to be not among and persistent risks threatening the the priorities of the local governments. lives and livelihoods of the An important indicator for making this communities. For instance, in all the preliminary judgment is the funds the districts respondents identified the non district governments have allocated in availability of clean drinking water as a the current budgets for emergencies major threat to human life and health. (without mentioning the 'disaster situations'). None of the district Especially in districts like Ghotki, governments was found to have Khairpur and Rajanpur, the respondents allocated mentionable funds in this also identified tribal clashes, sectarian head. For instance, in Vehari the district killings (especially in Khairpur) and government has allocated only one insecurity as major threats to citizens' million rupees for emergencies lives, freedom to move freely and fully compared to an amount of 5 million harness their livelihood options. The rupees reserved for the VIP visits. environmental risks like desertification, Similarly, in Thatta and Rajanpur (the destruction of mangroves (in Thatta), two top hazard prone districts) the shrinking availability of irrigation water, district governments have allocated 3 falling water tables, salinity and water million and no funds respectively for logging, pest attacks, pollution caused emergencies. by industrial units etc, were also identified by the respondents as major The research team also got this threats to the natural resource base on impression from the discussions held which majority of the population's with district government officials. It is livelihood options depend in the however to be noted that some district identified districts. governments were found to have started working on development Respondents from the civil society and schemes that can contribute to media in almost all the districts reducing the disaster risks. In Rajanpur, identified the development induced for instance, the district government causes that have created or are creating has started clearing the natural paths of disasters. In all the districts except hill torrents and restoration of farms Layyah and Vehari, the mega water destroyed by hill torrents. The district works and irrigation schemes like government has allocated 22,000 construction of barrages (the bulldozer-hours to the affected perception recorded in Sindh), spurs, communities free of cost. dykes, embankments (in Muzaffargarh) and canals (like Katchi canal in In Thatta, the district government has Rajanpur), were identified as the main initiated a program in which GIS maps sources of converting natural of the whole district are being phenomenon/hazards into persistent prepared. According to the DCO, the

Page 87 Major Findings SECTION 6 NEIGHBORING RISK local government Thatta intends to having no relevance to the local make use of this mapping exercise in priorities. The DCO Vehari, for instance, bettering the planning and remarked that conventional response development process in the district. mechanism coordinated through the Likewise, the district government Provincial Flood Commission is more Ghotki has undertaken a research study effective than doing the same through to document the causes, impacts and National Disaster Management response strategies for dealing with Authority and there is no need to water logging in the desert zone of the prepare a Disaster Management Plan in district, caused by the pumping of the presence of Flood Fighting Plan. saline water by irrigation authorities in Punjab. In Rajanpur, it was found that the post of EDO Revenue is vacant and the DCO Further research is needed to note the has the additional charge of this post. development schemes launched by the The District Officer Coordination (DO local governments for reducing disaster Coordination), Rajanpur who is holding risks or which can contribute in this the additional charge of a number of regard. departments, has managed to prepare the 'District Disaster Management Plan' 6.2.3. 'Reactive Approaches' still for Rajanpur. dominate local governments' disaster response The 'District Disaster Risk Management The main disaster response instrument Plan Layyah' is found to have been and strategy of all the district prepared in haste. Whosoever has governments was found to be the prepared this document, it appears, has 'Flood Fighting or Flood Contingency copied the details from some other plan Plan'. These plans are in fact the without adjusting them to the situation management strategies prepared by the in Layyah. For instance, the plan has district governments and outline the identified earthquake, sectarian resources available with and violence, civil unrest and crowds & responsibilities of different stampede, besides others, as prevalent departments and officials in case a disaster risks in the district and has flood strikes. Discussions with the local outlined no strategies to reduce and government officials in all the districts respond to these risks. At another place also reveal this fact as only a couple of the same document mentions 'MDA officials in Muzaffargarh (DO Civil and WASA' as the responsible agencies Defense etc) were found to have an for carrying out repair and maintenance understanding of the difference of water supply affected by disasters. between 'emergency response' and It is to be noted that no agency with the 'disaster risk reduction'. name of MDA (possibly short for Multan Development Authority) exists in Layyah 6.2.4. 'Disaster Risk Management Plan' and the Water and Sanitation Agency for the sake of having a 'Plan (WASA) operates only in the city Document' only districts like Lahore, Multan, Discussions with the local government Rawalpindi, Faisalabad etc. officials reveal that the preparation of 'Disaster Risk Reduction or Disaster Despite these deficiencies both flood Management Plan' is taken as a routine fighting and disaster management plans official activity imposed from the top, contain good stock of relevant local

Page 88 Major Findings SECTION 6 NEIGHBORING RISK information. The District Disaster 6.2.6. 'Flood Fighting Plans' as the Management Plan Rajanpur is one such 'District Disaster Risk Management example where the document seems to Plans' have followed the guidelines of NDMA Even a cursory look at the Disaster Risk and contains very useful information. Management Plans of the districts Flood fighting plans in all the districts under study (plans have been prepared also contain useful information like for Layyah, Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur and identifying villages likely to be affected Thatta) reveals that these plans are no and the vulnerable points. It is also more than slightly improved versions of interesting to note that none of these conventional flood fighting plans. In plans are supported with maps. Only a Thatta when the research team showed general map of the district is attached the copy of District Disaster to the document. Management Plan to EDO Revenue, he remarked that only the cover of the A notable exception is Ghotki, where it Flood Fighting Plan Thatta has been was found that DO Health has managed changed to make it appear as the to develop some useful maps manually District Disaster Management Plan. It is showing locations of health facilities to be noted that EDO Revenue Thatta is and the vulnerable populations. In the focal person of District Disaster Risk Rajanpur and Vehari, it was also noted Management (DDRM) in the district and that the EDOs had been asked by their has recently taken charge of his post. finance departments/Disaster Thatta and Badin are two districts Management focal persons to prepare where UNDP's Disaster Management disaster management plans of their Cell has appointed its focal persons to respective departments. help respective district governments prepare their Disaster Risk 6.2.5. District Flood Plans without Management Plans. financial plans In none of the districts studied, the 6.2.7. Allocations for emergencies are Flood Fighting Plans are supported by negligible the financial plans which could give an The local governments in all the idea of financial resources a district districts under study were found to be government may need to put into financially starved and struggling with a operation its flood plans when the need shrunk financial flow. Under such a arises. situation these governments allocating minimum or no funds for emergencies This arrangement leaves district is quite understandable. In Rajanpur, for governments with vague planning instance, the officials complained that documents which only outline the the government does not have funds responsibilities and reporting lines, even to pay salaries and there are a contact details etc. This appears to be number of departments without any one of the reasons why district funds for development. In the same governments are unable to allocate district the DCO reported that no funds sufficient funds for emergencies in their are available for emergencies this year own budgets and in case of an whereas in previous years normally one emergency, have to resort to cutting million rupees would be allocated for development budgets or look to this head. The situation in other provincial or federal government for districts was found no different. funds and relief operations.

Page 89 Major Findings SECTION 6 NEIGHBORING RISK

6.2.8. Institutional barriers (inter and intra the revenue department does not have a agency coordination, lack of staff/vacant kind of training for land-use planning and posts, lack of interest) situation management in general and In all the districts it was observed that local disaster management in particular. governments lack trained and motivated staff to work on Disaster Risk 6.2.10. Capacities of local civil society Reduction in a regular manner. In Thatta, it organizations was noted that UNDP is finding it difficult The local civil society organizations, with to motivate the higher level district few exceptions, in the surveyed district are bureaucracy to participate in the capacity small, sometime consisting of only one building programs/events for Disaster Risk individual and are voluntary organizations. Reduction, organized by the agency. Many of them have never received funding (However in the second consultative from any formal agency and are being run meeting the concerned UNDP on contributions from members or those representative claimed their plans are from philanthropists. Education and health running smoothly in the district.) are two key sectors these organizations are In Rajanpur, most of the posts of executive found working for. Except few organizations district officers are vacant (three EDOs are in Thatta, Layyah, Muzaffargarh and taking care of 11 departments). The non Rajanpur, generally the civil society availability of development funds and an organizations working in the identified overall environment of uncertainty about districts lack an understanding of disaster their future were also observed to have management. One possible reason for this demoralized the local government officials. is found to be DRR being a relatively very In Vehari, the DO Budget remarked that new concept for civil society organizations planning is a systematic activity that in Pakistan. This is one of the reasons for requires continuation of plans and policies their not being working in/with the disaster towards well defined goals. Unfortunately, prone communities. he added, in Pakistan 'planning' is taken as something dictated by one who is in control 6.2.11. Inter stakeholder misconceptions, of affairs. It was observed in all the districts suspicions and lack of trust that majority of the top management During the course of this research meetings (EDOs and DCOs especially) is only a few were held primarily with district months old in their present positions, and governments, non government and gradually building their understanding of community based organizations, and the local issues. media. Each stakeholder was asked about the performance of the other two. It 6.2.9. An inconvenient truth was found that an environment of Owing to their being in-charge of land misconception, suspicion and lack of trust management, the revenue officials are generally prevails. For instance, the local responsible for the preparation, execution governments in all the districts were found and coordination of Flood Fighting and to be dissatisfied with the working of the District Disaster Risk Management Plans, non government organizations and vice and damage assessments etc in all the versa. The media people blamed both the districts. The police are made in-charge of government and non government maintaining law and order situation in case organizations for embezzlement of funds of emergencies and early warnings. It is to and ineffectiveness. be noted that the revenue and police are two of those departments considered most corrupt and inefficient in Pakistan. Further

Page 90 Major Findings SECTION 6 NEIGHBORING RISK

6.2.12. Holistic vision and programs where showing things done. Even the public and DRR could be incorporated in the stakeholder consultations made mandatory mainstream development planning and by the guidelines of NDMA for the governance are absent preparation of District Disaster The quest for incorporating disaster risk Management Plans, have not been reduction into mainstream development conducted in letter and spirit. planning and governance is still a distant dream. Discussions with stakeholders in all 6.2.15. Huge funds are lying unspent the districts further strengthen this finding. under the CCB heads in each district The district budget documents show that 6.2.13. Sensitization on environment and hundreds of millions of rupees are lying water: an interprovincial comparison unspent under the CCB head in all the The discussion with local governments and districts and very few schemes have so far civil society organizations in Punjab been awarded to the CCBs. There are suggests that a general state of oblivion dozens of CCBs registered in each district exists among them about the water but the current administration is not requirements of the downstream and satisfied with the way the CCBs were environmental repercussions of water allocated funds in the past. scarcity on Sindh. In contrast a general perception of being made deprived of their 6.2.16. The capacity building programs water rights by the upstream (Punjab) with a conventional approach are not prevails among the local governments and enough civil society organizations in Sindh. The In various districts the local government understanding of environmental and officials have attended training programs political dimensions of inter provincial and (mostly arranged by UNDP, NDMA etc). A inter-district water management was found marked improvement in their to be much stronger among civil society understanding of DRR concepts can be organizations and local governments in observed. However it was also observed Sindh compared to their counterparts in that these officials when try to convert Punjab. their newly got knowledge into practice, they encounter a number of limitations 6.2.14. Participation of people and their including institutional barriers, lack of representatives in Disaster Management is funds and above all lack of feedback and missing support from the high-ups. Ever since coming into being of the current political setup at center and in the 6.2.17. Local civil society organizations in provinces, the elected representatives of the surveyed districts, with few local governments have been made defunct exceptions, have a minimal presence and the local bureaucracy is in full charge The local civil society organizations, with of administration. In Punjab the old few exceptions, in the surveyed district are commissioner system has been reinstalled small, sometime consisting of only one and the district coordination officer is also individual and voluntary organizations. holding the responsibilities of district Many of them have never received funding nazim. from any formal agency and are being run Neither the Flood Fighting Plans nor the on contributions from members or from District Disaster Risk Management Plans philanthropists. Education and health are are presented before or discussed by the two key sectors these organizations are district council. Resultantly the planning found working in. exercise has become merely another routine and ad hoc instrument of getting or

Page 91 Major Findings SECTION 7 NEIGHBORING RISK

Section 7. Towards a Safer Future: Building Capacities, Reducing Vulnerabilities

One cannot resist acknowledging the fact that Pakistan has successfully managed to frame policies, draw action plans, enact laws and design programs that have direct relevance to sustainable development. However there persist conventional and longstanding unresolved issues of understanding, interpretation, integration and putting into action of these policies, plans, and programs.

These are gigantic challenges and require vision, creative thinking, financial and human resources and social and political will on part of all those who take, implement and face decisions (politicians, bureaucracy and technocrats at different tiers of governance and communities that consistently live with hazards, poverty, and vulnerabilities).

Recommendations given in this section are based upon the notion that there is no dearth of policies, institutions and even indigenous resources. There are institutions both in the government and non government sectors that have human resources and experience to address many of the issues brought forth by this report. However if there is a dearth, it is of realization of people's capacities, sympathetic understanding of issues, and pro-poor and pro- environment thinking, planning and programs.

These are serious deficiencies and need serious consideration and will on part of all those who desire and strive to build a safer tomorrow where people and government and civil society institutions have capacities to better respond to natural hazards and

Page 92 Towards a Safer Future: Building Capacities, Reducing Vulnerabilities SECTION 7 NEIGHBORING RISK

have vision and practical strategies to shape a vis-à-vis the vulnerable communities, local development that is equitable and responsive both governments and civil society organizations. E to the needs and rights of people and their environment. Subsection 3 introduces a 'framework of local

R governance and disaster risk reduction' based upon This section contains three subsections. In the provisions of local government system 2001 and subsection 1, a seven point agenda based upon the National Disaster Management Ordinance 2007. U CARDIAC (heart) model (1) is proposed for a This framework highlights all the key actors, areas sustainable disaster risk reduction. It also and strategic entry points that must be taken into

T recommends the adoption of “Pressure Release account for a decentralized and integrated disaster Model” and “Disaster Resistant Sustainable risk reduction strategy. (The framework is attached Livelihood Framework” besides the key policy as a separate sheet with this report) U principles. The blue column titled 'Policy Space' highlights F Subsection 2 contains recommendations that some key provisions of important international and

correspond to the issues identified by this research national policy initiatives.

Subsection 1 R 7.1.1. A Seven-Point Agenda for Sustainable Disaster Risk Reduction

E Recommendations The CARDIAC Model (1) Help communities, local governments ,

F practitioners and civil society organizations C C=Communicate understanding of vulnerability including media and people's 1.Understand and communicate the nature of hazards, representatives understand, analyze, vulnerabilities and capacities

A articulate and communicate natural and man-made hazards, vulnerabilities to these A=Analyze vulnerability hazards, and level of response capacities A

S 2.Conduct risk assessments by analyzing hazards,

vulnerabilities and capacities Adopt comprehensive programs including research, planning, advocacy and R=focus on Reverse of PAR model

A R demonstration projects to understand and 3.Reduce risks by addressing root causes, dynamic

address root causes, dynamic pressures and pressures and unsafe conditions

S Make sustainable development the goal of D D=emphasize sustainable development

disaster risk reduction efforts. 4.Build risk reduction into sustainable development D Adopt livelihood-centered disaster risk reduction approaches say Disaster Resistant I=Improve livelihoods

R I

Sustainable Livelihood Framework (DRSL) 5.Reduce risk by improving livelihood opportunities A Take disaster recovery as an opportunity to A=Add recovery 'build back better and safer' environment. A

6.Build risk reduction into disaster recovery W

Focusing children, make 'DRR' part of school C=extend to culture O syllabus/training/extra-curricular activities C

so a new culture of safety could emerge. 7.Build a safety culture T

Page 93 Towards a Safer Future: Building Capacities, Reducing Vulnerabilities TOWARDS A SAFER FUTURE SECTION 7

Fig 7.1: The release of ‘pressure’ to reduce disasters: progression of safety (3)

THE PROGRESSION OF SAFETY

ADDRESS ACHIEVE SAFE REDUCE REDUCE ROOT CAUSES REDUCE PRESSURES CONDITIONS DISASTER RISK HAZARDS Protected environment/ A range of Overarching conditions conditions measures to reduce - Increased human -Safe locations of the intensity of development human settlements Floods - Sustainable development -Hazard resistent housing Drought - Good governance Increase the access structures, buildings and Cyclones of vulnerable physical infrastructure Aim for a Hill torrents Development of groups to controlled Torrential rains - Local Institutions - Power structures Local economy Hailstorm - Education situation - Institutions - Strengthened Livelihoods Dust storm - Training

P - Resources - Improved income levels Storms age - Appropriate skills - No loss of life - Diversification of Frost/fog - Investment in people

94 Challenge any - Fewer casualties T income earning options Earthquake ow - Responsive markets - Political System - Restricted damage Epidemics ar - Access to information and relations Sea Intrusion ds aSaf Public Actions - Freedom of expression/press - Food security - Economic systems - No discrimination for any group Tribal conflicts - Ethical standards in public life - Social structures - Strong local/community Water logging er Futur - Gender relations institutions Salinity Macro forces - Cultural values and - Community mobilization and Pest attack - Population & health programs beliefs organization Terrorism e: Building Capacities,R that cause or - Sustainable urbanization Urban fire - Labor rights and soft loans contribute Others Industrial accidents NEIGHBORING RISK - Peace to the - Disaster preparedness Traffic accidents - Conservation of vulnerabilities - Improved health facilities Tsunami environment including - Improved public health Climate change afforestation, soil protection, - Control of endemics sustainable use - Efficient and effective early of water for irrigation warning systems

educing V and so on. ulner abilities SECTION 7 NEIGHBORING RISK

Fig 7.2: Disaster Resistant Sustainable Livelihood Framework (4)

E

R

U

T

U

F

R

E

F

A

S

A

S

D

R

A

W

O T

Page 95 Towards a Safer Future: Building Capacities, Reducing Vulnerabilities SECTION 7 NEIGHBORING RISK

Box. 7.1. Four Broader Planning Principles (5) for a Disaster Sensitive Policy Space

Development E I. Planning and development must take into account and respect the ecology of the region it is meant for.

R II. The land use plans should keep environmental and social considerations Each State has the primary above the land values and economic cost/benefit figures. responsibility for its own

III. “Development democracy” i.e. development should benefit the majority sustainable development U without compromising the basic rights of minority- the majority here means and for taking effective those who are marginalized, poor and are resource less. measures to reduce T IV. Keep the development's feet clean so as to avoid disaster footprints. disaster risk, including for the protection of people

U on its territory, infrastructure and other

F national assets from the

Box. 7.2. The five Policy Principles

I. Disasters should be taken as a part of ecology and should be 'managed' rather than 'controlled'.

R II. Disasters should be treated as issues of development and governance and the state should be made responsive, sensitive and accountable to the

E demands, needs and rights of disaster prone communities and areas. Integrate risk reduction, as III. Disaster management policies should be redirected towards poverty and appropriate into vulnerability reduction instead of mere compensation and relief responses. F development policies and IV. Disaster Management strategies should integrate structural measures planning at all levels of (construction of embankments, dykes, disaster resistant buildings etc) with government including in A non structural measures such as enhancing the entitlements and poverty reduction negotiating power of the most vulnerable communities and subordinate strategies and sectors and

S social groups. multi sector policies and

V. Disaster prone communities should be engaged equitably into the process

of disaster related decision making and development planning.

A

Source: Duryog Nivaran, Practical Action, RDPI (6) An integrated, multi-hazard S Subsection 2 approach to disaster risk

7.2.1.There are a number of documented from an angle of reduction should be D issues which need in-depth their being hazards and risks. factored into policies, research/investigation - Capacity assessment of civil planning and programming

R This research has been society organizations. related to sustainable undertaken in a very short span - The views of lower tiered local development, relief,

of time (the field work in all the bureaucracy who have a closer rehabilitation, and A seven districts was to be interaction with the people and recovery activities in post- completed in one month). Due to local issues. disaster and post-conflict

this time constraint, deeper - Local knowledge of the situations in disaster prone W research or investigation was not communities, their technologies countries. (HFA) possible. Thus a more focused and coping and adaptation

O and detailed research is needed, mechanisms need proper especially in the following areas: documentation and thorough

- Non conventional hazards and research before designing or T risks, since these have not been initiating any intervention aimed Page 96 Towards a Safer Future: Building Capacities, Reducing Vulnerabilities SECTION 7 NEIGHBORING RISK

at disaster risk management or misconceptions, suspicions and

risk reduction. lack of trust is primarily the E - This research notes that result of lack of communication An integrated, multi- children are not mere 'minors' as and transparency. One possible hazard approach to

R they are contributing to option for enhancing truer disaster risk reduction household economies and people's participation and better should be factored into possess very useful knowledge, cooperation and coordination, is

U policies, planning and experiences, concerns and to open and support avenues for programming related to suggestions for improving their public dialogue in the shape of sustainable development, T lot. All these aspects need to be broad based, multi stakeholder further researched and forums where all the relief, rehabilitation, and documented. stakeholders could share their recovery activities in post- U plans, projects, and disaster and post-conflict 7.2.2. The local governments performance, and get feedback. situations in disaster F need consistent support in The idea when discussed with prone countries. (HFA)

preparation of conventional the stakeholders got flood fighting plans and District considerable appreciation. One A gender perspective Disaster Risk Management may argue that the district R should be integrated into Plans disaster management all disaster risk

All the local governments in the authorities should be taken as management policies, E surveyed districts prepare and these proposed forums. plans and decision making update their flood fighting plans. However, the existing shape and

F process including those Despite all the shortcomings of institutional arrangement of related to risk assessment, these documents and limitations these authorities is more on early warning, information

A of the local government staff, it paper than in actual existence. must be appreciated that the management, and governments are managing with 7.2.4. There is a need to harness education and training. S these instruments. These the great potential of media (HFA) documents and local and civil society through governments' practices can be extensive capacity building Cultural diversity, age and

A taken as the foundation to build programs vulnerable groups should

upon. Like the local governments, civil be taken into account society organizations and media when planning for disaster The existing planning documents also need support in the shape

S risk reduction, as and the planning exercises do of training and constructive appropriate. (HFA) not match the real spirit, engagement. For instance it was

D concepts and demands of the observed that the local press Both communities and planning discipline. The clubs do not have required

governments thus need support facilities and journalists who are local authorities should be R in shape of training, feedback, often not paid by their empowered to manage and working in partnership for employers have to rely on their and reduce disaster risk by

A the conception, preparation, own resources for receiving and having access to the execution, management, dispatching news items. necessary information, monitoring and evaluation of Capacity building programs resources and authority to

W disaster risk management plans. aimed at improving disaster implement actions for communication can also disaster risk reduction. 7.2.3. Great scope for multi considerably improve the way (HFA) O stakeholder, broad based disaster events are reported. forums It was also observed that the

T The prevalent inter stakeholder misbalance between resources

Page 97 Towards a Safer Future: Building Capacities, Reducing Vulnerabilities SECTION 7 NEIGHBORING RISK

and facilities available to local this hospital. government, established local E Recognize the importance organizations, and media also 7.2.7. There exists a huge scope and specificity of local risk contributes to misconception. of development work in all the patterns and trends; R Through supportive efforts this sampled districts decentralize misbalance can be reduced. The underdevelopment of sampled districts as shown by responsibilities and U 7.2.5. Consistent efforts are different development ranking resources for disaster risk needed to promote the idea of criteria which this study also reduction to relevant sub

T incorporating DRR into employed; a welcome response national or local mainstream development and urge from the local authorities, as appropriate. planning and projects governments to work in (HFA) U There is a need to develop partnership with civil society SOP's and research and organizations that are currently Promote community F planning tools through which it working in these districts, participation in disaster

could be ensured that while provide an excellent risk reduction through the designing development opportunity to work adoption of....strategic schemes at district level, the development and DRM agenda R management of volunteer concepts of disaster risk in these districts. resources.... (HFA)

reduction are incorporated and E taken care of. 7.2.8. The decision to partner Develop, update

with a particular district periodically and widely F 7.2.6. There are possibilities of government should not solely disseminate risk maps and channelizing some portion of be made on the response of related information to

A unspent CCB funds into the high ups (DCO or District decision makers, the community based disaster risk Nazim) general public and reduction by intelligent A broad based and multi

S communities at risk, in an planning and building indicator analysis tool that coordination mechanism with incorporates vulnerability of a appropriate format. (HFA) the district governments district, prevalence of hazards, Develop early warning

A There are few examples worth local governments' existing and systems that are people

considering for a judicious use future programs, overall state of of unspent CCB funds. For human development and centred, in particular example in Vehari, the district potential of local civil society systems whose warnings S government is found to have organizations to name but a few are timely and initiated a mega eye hospital should guide this decision. understandable to those at

D project using the CCB funds. A risk, which take into philanthropic organization 7.2.9. Cooperation Protocols account the demographic,

showed its willingness to spend Besides having a cooperation gender, cultural and R ten million rupees for protocol established with livelihood characteristics of construction of an eye hospital institutions like NDMA, there is the target audiences,

A in the district. Some district a need to forge similar including guidance on how officials advised the protocols with the local to act upon warnings, and organization to get a CCB governments, relevant that support effective

W registered and submit the provincial government operation by disaster proposal to the district departments like relief managers and other government. The district commissions, PDMAs and decision makers (HFA) O government is now contributing environment protection 40 million rupees as matching agencies, local government and

T grant for the construction of rural development

Page 98 Towards a Safer Future: Building Capacities, Reducing Vulnerabilities SECTION 7 NEIGHBORING RISK

departments, and Ministry of governments develop their

Environment et al. targets (on the patterns of E MDGs) and measure their Institutions dealing with 7.2.10. The local governments performance. The development urban development should R need technical support and if audit will be a useful tool to provide information to the provided strategically, fruitful assess the development density public on disaster results can be achieved without and pockets of

U reduction options prior to investing heavily. For instance underdevelopment within a the constructions, land the existing flood fighting plans district and hence will help in

T can be further improved by the allocation of resources and purchase or land sale (HFA) incorporating maps showing the development schemes. number and locations of Designing the development Promote the inclusion of U vulnerable points and audit and profiling tool disaster risk reduction settlements. The existing shouldn't be difficult as local knowledge in relevant F disaster management plans can governments hold a lot of sections of school curricula be improved with a little effort information that needs to be at all levels and the use of by documenting the existing reflected in the planning other formal and informal

R physical, social and economic decisions. channels to reach youth state of vulnerable and children with communities. This target can be 7.2.12. Engaging the district

E information; promote the achieved by putting in operation governments, development integration of disaster risk the provision in Local guidelines can be evolved

F reduction as an intrinsic Government Ordinance which which can help in scrutinizing requires each union council to the development interventions element of United Nations Decade of Education for

A collect development related for the risks they carry. Planning information. Templates for manuals have already been Sustainable Development Union Administration and developed by the provincial (2005-2015). (HFA) S revenue department's field staff Planning and Development can easily be developed to Departments. The provisions of Promote the engagement collect the required information. these manuals, the guidelines of media in order to

A developed by NDMA for district stimulate a culture of

7.2.11. The decades old level DRM planning and disaster resilience and mindset of local government provisions of LGO 2001 can be strong community officials makes them think of merged to evolve district- S involvement in sustained ready made solutions. This specific DRM planning manuals. public education challenge can be turned into an campaigns and public D opportunity by developing 7.2.13. There is a strong need to district-specific development, push the idea of integrated consultations at all levels

hazards, environment and development planning. This is a of society. (HFA) R vulnerability profiles and tools herculean task in Pakistani for undertaking a development context. However the difficulty

A audit. The development audit of a task should not frustrate should bring forth inventories of one to abandon the idea. The development assets like roads, local governments can be

W schools, dispensaries and so on. encouraged to buy the idea. This development audit should Further, the sustainable disaster be supported with maps and risk reduction, as outlined by O should be made available to the the planning principles, can not public. The development audit be achieved unless it is made

T should also help local part of overall development

Page 99 Towards a Safer Future: Building Capacities, Reducing Vulnerabilities SECTION 7 NEIGHBORING RISK

process - and this is the message 7.2.16.Keep in sight children’s

of both HFA and NDMF. economic role E The household survey results Promote food security as an 7.2.14. Non government show that 25% male and 5% important factor in R organizations should go for female children aged 11-18 are ensuring the resilience of construction related work, economically active. These communities to hazards, especially flood management children can be imparted with

U particularly in areas prone schemes, with great caution. useful livelihood earning skills Hydrology related interventions along with education which could to drought, floods, cyclones and other hazards that can T should not be taken unless they contribute to reducing household are studied in a broader poverty and thus increasing their weaken agriculture-base spectrum. The experiences of options. livelihoods. (HFA) U many organizations submit to this finding. 7.2.17. Adopt the Human Strengthen the F Development Approach for implementation of social 7.2.15. Harness the potential of enhancing people’s capacities safety net mechanisms to children and youth and reducing their assist the poor, the elderly As the district demographic vulnerabilities R and the disabled and other records and household survey This study strongly recommends populations affected by results reveal, a large proportion tackling vulnerability with a

E disasters. Enhance recovery of population consists of children human development approach schemes including psycho- and youth. The community i.e. increasing people's choices so

F social training programs in survey results show that the they are not left with limited potential of children can be options of staying at dangerous order to mitigate the

harnessed. There are successful sites and adopt risky psychological damage to A experiences where school technologies. This is a long term vulnerable populations, children and community youth goal and will slowly but surely particularly children, in the S were engaged in Natural contribute towards sustainable aftermath of disasters. Resource Management projects risk reduction. (HFA) and successful results were

A achieved. The idea of forming 7.2.18. Identify and use strategic Promote diversified income

youth/children volunteer groups entry points for disaster risk options for population in or task forces can be banked reduction high risk areas to reduce upon. These interventions will The community survey results

S their vulnerability to surely match the local show key strategic entry points hazards, and ensure that governments' priorities in which for risk reduction. These include their income and assets are D improving education and health improving house construction are at the top (as is claimed). The technologies, improving people's not undermined by investment in and organization of physical mobility so they could development policy and R children and youth task forces access or be accessed by the processes that increase will contribute in improving the social service providers, their vulnerability to

A quality of education, the value improving health infrastructure disasters. (HFA) they get out of it, and also to or at least primary health care institutionalize and direct their services, and improving people's

W potential. The children or youth livelihoods. There are available task forces can be involved in some successful case studies improving early warning systems, where these options were put in

O plantation at the riverbanks, practice. For instance housing community work and so on. technologies in the coastal belts

T can be improved by introducing

Page 100 Towards a Safer Future: Building Capacities, Reducing Vulnerabilities SECTION 7 NEIGHBORING RISK

concrete 'T' pillars that help keep can be replicated. DOABA

E the house in shape when a Foundation (9), has also Incorporate disaster risk cyclone or a storm strikes(7). demonstrated this approach by assessment into urban and These have successfully been constructing low cost roads and rural development R adopted in Bangladesh. Similarly distributing donkey carts to planning (HFA) FAO and ILO (8) have done improve the transport and

extensive work on low cost livelihood options of riverine U transport technologies/road communities. In order to reap the construction.These experiences

T ‘demographic dividend’, Pakistan needs to focus on Subsection 3 first sustaining and then U accelerating the pace of (Please see the attached sheet “Making Local Governance Work for fertility decline during the F Sustainable Disaster Risk Management) next 10 years, along with a rapid increase in enrolment to achieve universal primary

R education. We will simultaneously create the critical mass of manpower E with appropriate scientific and technological skills. In F the absence of any such planning and investment in

A Pakistan, large numbers of uneducated, unskilled and unprepared population will S only lead to a humanitarian and social disaster.

(Pakistan Vision 2030)

A

Encourage NGO

S participation in disaster risk management activities.

In specific terms NGO's will D be encouraged to participate in training, R public education, damage assessment,

A rehabilitation and construction projects in hazard prone areas.

W (NDMF)

O T

Page 101 Towards a Safer Future: Building Capacities, Reducing Vulnerabilities SECTION 7 NEIGHBORING RISK

1. Wisner et al, At Risk: Natural hazards, people's vulnerability and disasters, Routledge, London, 2004

S 2. See Malalgoda M and Bhatti A, Livelihood Centred Approach to Disaster Management: A Policy

Framework for South Asia, ITDG, RDPI, Islamabad, 2005 E

3. Wisner et al, At Risk: Natural hazards, people's vulnerability and disasters, Routledge, London, 2004 T 4. Hasan A, Planning and Development Options for Karachi, Shehersaaz, Islamabad, 2009

O 5. Duryog Nivaran, Practical Action, RDPI, Tackling the Tides and Tremors, South Asia Disaster Report 2005, Islamabad, 2006

N 6. Visit http://practicalaction.org/region_bangladesh

7. See FAO, Rural Transport and Traction Enterprises for Improved Livelihoods, FAO Diversification Booklet

10, Rome, 2009 D

8. Visit http://practicalaction.org/region_south_asia N

9. Visit http://doaba.org.pk/

A

S

E

C

N

E

R

E

F

E R

Page 102 Towards a Safer Future: Building Capacities, Reducing Vulnerabilities

Rural Development Policy Institute

www.rdpi.org.pk www.plan-international.org

ISBN: 978-969-9041-02-0