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Financial Stability Review FSR FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW FEBRUARY 2011 GLOBAL IMBALANCES AND FINANCIAL STABILITY 15 110–015 FSR15_page_de_garde.indd 1 04/02/2011 16:15:06 www.banque-france.fr “No part of this publication may be reproduced other than for the purposes stipulated in Article L.122-5.2° and 3° a) of the Intellectual Property Code without the express authorisation of the Banque de France or, where applicable, without complying with the terms of Article L.122-10. of the said code.” © Banque de France - 2011 ISSN 1636-6964 FSR15_page_de_garde.indd 2 04/02/2011 16:15:10 “In this issue of the Financial Stability Review on “global imbalances and fi nancial stability”, we have been fortunate to gather contributions from eminent central bankers in major countries of the world. This makes it a very special event. I wish to express my gratitude to those colleagues who have accepted to give their views and contribute to enhancing our understanding of very important issues for the future.” Christian Noyer FSR15_introduction.indd 1 07/02/2011 08:43:29 FSR15_introduction.indd 2 04/02/2011 16:15:31 CONTENTS ARTICLES Global imbalances: the perspective of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency DR MUHAMMAD AL-JASSER, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency 1 International capital fl ows and the returns to safe assets in the United States, 2003-2007 BEN S. BERNANKE, Federal Reserve System 13 The challenge of high capital infl ows to fi nancial stability: an emerging market perspective HENRIQUE DE CAMPOS MEIRELLES, Banco Central do Brasil 27 Global imbalances: the international monetary system and fi nancial stability MARK CARNEY, Bank of Canada 31 Global imbalances: the perspective of the Banco de México AGUSTÍN CARSTENS, Banco de México 39 Complementarity and coordination of macroeconomic and fi nancial policies to tackle internal and external imbalances MARIO DRAGHI, Banca d’Italia 43 Global imbalances: common problem to solve for both advanced and emerging market economies SERGEY IGNATIEV, Bank of Russia 53 Global balance and fi nancial stability: twin objectives toward a resilient global economic system CHOONGSOO KIM, Bank of Korea 61 Global imbalances: the perspective of the Bank of England MERVYN KING, Bank of England 73 Global imbalances and developing countries MERCEDES MARCÓ DEL PONT, Banco Central de la República Argentina 81 A South African perspective on global imbalances GILL MARCUS, South African Reserve Bank 95 Global imbalances, volatile capital infl ows and proposed further IMF roles DARMIN NASUTION, Bank Indonesia 101 Global imbalances and fi nancial stability CHRISTIAN NOYER, Banque de France 107 Global imbalances and current account imbalances MASAAKI SHIRAKAWA, Bank of Japan 113 Global imbalances through the prism of savings and investment GLENN STEVENS, Reserve Bank of Australia 127 Global imbalances: the perspective of the Reserve Bank of India DR DUVVURI SUBBARAO, Reserve Bank of India 131 Intellectual challenges to fi nancial stability analysis in the era of macroprudential oversight JEAN-CLAUDE TRICHET, European Central Bank 139 Securing stability and growth in a post-crisis world PROFESSOR AXEL A. WEBER, Deutsche Bundesbank 151 Revisiting the Tinbergen Rule: use the macroprudential tools to maintain fi nancial stability DURMUŞ YILMAZ, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey 159 On savings ratio DR ZHOU XIAOCHUAN, People’s Bank of China 165 PUBLISHED ARTICLES 171 Global imbalances and fi nancial stability Banque de France • Financial Stability Review • No. 15 • February 2011 1 FSR15_sommaire.indd 1 04/02/2011 16:15:49 FSR15_sommaire.indd 2 04/02/2011 16:15:55 Global imbalances: the perspective of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency DR MUHAMMAD AL-JASSER Governor Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency The problem of global imbalances has acquired disconcerting proportions. Surplus and defi cit countries must cooperate in a solution. Both emerging and advanced economies need to undertake structural changes. There is no exclusive domestic solution to global imbalances. Work must continue to restore fi nancial stability, involving supervision of global systemically important fi nancial institutions (G-SIFIs); reforming international institutions; dealing with destabilising capital fl ows into emerging economies; encouraging competition to the dollar in global currencies; and introducing asset targeting and macroprudential policy into the conduct of monetary policy. The current external surpluses of Saudi Arabia are a cyclical issue refl ecting its role in supplying oil to the global economy. Countercyclical fi scal policy is used to stabilise the growth path. Foreign exchange reserves act as a buffer and the exchange rate serves as the policy anchor while diversifi cation is pursued through capital investment. Global imbalances and fi nancial stability Banque de France • Financial Stability Review • No. 15 • February 2011 1 FSR15_01_12_AL-JASSER.indd 1 04/02/2011 16:16:16 Global imbalances: the perspective of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency Muhammad Al-Jasser he 2007-08 fi nancial crisis has lent support surpluses worry that advanced countries will use to two facts: capital markets are closely exports to reduce their imbalances at the expense T interlinked around the world; and there of EM exports rather than address their structural is a visible connection between domestic and problems. Advanced economies see the exchange international fi nancial stability. rate of major EM economies as misaligned due to their export-led growth model. Many participants This paper presents my perspective on global believe the cyclical surpluses of oil producers (which imbalances and financial stability. Section 1 are quite different, as is argued in Section 3) to be reviews the problem of global imbalances including somehow involved in the question. suggestions on how to improve the situation. Section 2 deals with fi nancial stability. Section 3 addresses the In a globalised interdependent world, the pattern situation of Saudi Arabia. Section 4 contains summary of imbalances cannot be “blamed” on any one and conclusions. party. The need of the hour is for all parties to take action and work together. The focus of discussions should be an orderly and gradual unwinding of the imbalances over the medium term while ensuring 1| GLOBAL IMBALANCES that broad-based global expansion continues. But we need a common vision of where the world economy 1|1 Background should be going as well as agreement on policy instruments. The rise of the developing economies Imbalances in trade between economies are as old as is the biggest change. It has accelerated as a result trade itself, and normally they correct gradually so of the crisis and the developing world will shortly as to help the global economy move towards steady account for over half of the world’s gross domestic long-run growth. The problem of global imbalances product (GDP) on a purchasing power parity (PPP) has, however, acquired disconcerting proportions. basis. Structural reform programmes (including for This is due to a number of factors. First, the size of the global institutions) need to recognise this. imbalances involves the world’s leading economies, centring on the United States. Second, the problem is returning after some correction in 2008-09 (Table 1). 1|2 Challenges for rebalancing Third, the global fi nancial system which fi nanced global demand the imbalances (and helped exacerbate them by its creation of additional leverage) has been damaged by the crisis. Finally, there are issues of instability due Any answer which focuses only on fi xing the US defi cit to the imbalances within the euro area, which raise runs the risk of a 1930s-type trade depression as many of the same issues, in particular the diffi culty aggregate demand is withdrawn from the world of getting both surplus nations and defi cit nations economy. But correcting the surpluses solely by to co-operate in fi nding an answer. expanding domestic demand in surplus nations risks igniting global infl ation as in the 1970s. Both creditors There are opposing views as to how to solve the (surplus nations) and debtors (defi cit nations) need problem. Emerging market (EM) economies with to take concerted action. Restoring balance to the world economy involves stronger demand in the euro area and a continuation of domestic demand Table 1 expansion in Japan. Additional efforts to increase Current account balances of the major economies competition in the markets for goods and services, (USD billions) and to improve labour market fl exibility, are needed 2007 2008 2009 2010 in these economies to safeguard the recovery that Forecast is taking place. United States -718 -669 -378 -466 Japan 211 157 142 166 The United States must take action to correct its fi scal Germany 254 245 163 200 defi cit and to prevent a recurrence of a credit-driven China 372 436 297 270 boom which was ultimately dependent on the health Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2010. of housing collateral. We cannot expect a change in Global imbalances and fi nancial stability 2 Banque de France • Financial Stability Review • No. 15 • February 2011 FSR15_01_12_AL-JASSER.indd 2 04/02/2011 16:16:18 Global imbalances: the perspective of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency Muhammad Al-Jasser the exchange rate of the US dollar vis-a-vis currencies As for domestic demand in EMs, gross savings rates of surplus countries to solve the problem on its own: are much higher in emerging economies compared it is not a panacea. Experience shows that exchange to advanced economies at 32% vs 18% of GDP in 2010 rate changes have very limited short-run effects on (source: International Monetary Fund – IMF), and current account positions. Furthermore, attempts consumption is accordingly lower. There are serious to model the extent of the US dollar depreciation obstacles to stimulating consumption in EMs: needed to bring US exports and imports into balance investment in services is low, and the retail and show that not even a major fall in the currency can fi nancial sectors are underdeveloped.
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