TitleMaitland View

Today, we'll see and swap what would be expected to be their normal campaign itineraries. The Prime Minister is touring North East, where she will accuse the Labour Party of abandoning the patriotic working class. It is expected she will deliver the speech, in a similar fashion to her other general election addresses, standing in front of a bank of suited Conservative candidates and quarantined from any members of the What have we learnt this week? general public. The Conservative are yet to hit their first Jeremy Corbyn, meanwhile, will pitch his real problem of this campaign. They foreign policy credentials at Chatham glided through the election spending House, taking on critics of his approach to scandal and remain high in the polls. All intervention and the use of nuclear this being equal, Theresa May will weapons. He will argue that he is not a returned to number 10 with an enormous pacifist and would support military action if majority. it has been sanctioned by the UN and is in accordance with international law, despite Labour, by accident or design, have got a having previously approved such action. In lot of coverage after their manifesto leak. his speech this morning, Corbyn will also The policies are popular, the leader distance himself from Donald Trump in a unpopular, and the polls stubborn. The thinly veiled jab to the Prime Minister's party divided, MPs bracing for defeat and recent visit to the US, saying "Pandering to government seeming a long way away. an erratic Trump administration will not deliver stability … So no more hand-holding Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats have with Donald Trump; a Labour government largely failed to achieve cut through, a will conduct a robust and independent surge in policies, announcements and foreign policy made in London." busy work, but little shift in the polls.

The Liberal Democrats take a very different With four weeks left to go, it remains tone, announcing a policy to offer a month down to the opposition parties to change of paternity leave as part of the shared the political weather if they are to avoid a parental leave policy they delivered during landside Conservative victory. the coalition government.

1 TitleThis week’s polls

Party Predicted Votes Predicted Seats

Conservative 48.6% 412

Labour 27.1% 160

Liberal Democrat 9.9% 7

UKIP 6.0% 0

Green 2.6% 0

SNP 4.2% 50

Plaid Cymru 0.6% 3

Other 1% 0

N.Ire 18

Currently, the probability of the Conservatives coming out of the other side of the General Election with a majority is at a lofty 83%, while the probability of a Labour majority stands at just 4%. On current trends, the Conservative Party is due to win 414 seats (with 314 solid, 43 likely, 50 leaning and 7 tossup); the Labour Party is due to win 153 seats (with 80 solid, 42 likely, 24 leaning and 7 tossup); the SNP is likely to win 48 seats (with 31 solid, 6 likely, 7 leaning and 4 tossup); the Liberal Democrats are due to win 13 seats (with 6 likely, 6 leaning and 1 tossup); Plaid Cymru is likely to win 3 seats (1 solid and 2 leaning); the Green Party is likely to win 1 seat; and UKIP is due to win no seats.

Source: Electoral Calculus 2 Prediction based on opinion polls from 19 Apr 2017 to 10 May 2017, sampling 12,005 people. Seat projections: ScenariPolitici TitleAmbition, Entrenchment and Wishful Thinking

The graph below illustrates the story of this election campaign thus far. The Conservatives, well ahead in the polls and on course for a substantial majority, are targeting a vast swathe of Labour seats with majorities of well above 5,000 votes. While many of these seats would usually be considered safe, the Conservatives are in a strong position to capitalise on the large ‘Leave’ vote in these areas. Labour are retrenching their position and putting their efforts to winning seats in very marginal constituencies. The Lib Dems meanwhile face a tough task – fighting to overcome big Conservative majorities from 2015 in areas that also strongly backed .

In focus: Prospective Parliamentary Candidates Confirmed

All Prospective Parliamentary Candidates had to confirm their intention to stand by 4pm on 11 May. The following is a brief biography of the men and women standing in the Conservatives’ top target seats. What is perhaps most striking is the lack of people completely new to politics. The vast majority are local councillors, former parliamentary researchers or have stood for seats previously. Many are also former MPs for their chosen constituency. We also have a brief account of the fresh(er) faces chosen for the some of the safest seats in the country for both parties. Barring a very unlikely series of events, these five people are almost guaranteed to be returned to Westminster come 9 June.

3 TitleTop Conservative Target Seats

Ealing Central and Acton (Labour 274) Rupa Huq v City of Chester (Labour 93) Chris Matheson v Will Gallagher Joy Morrissey is a Conservative Councillor in Will Gallagher has been chosen to fight one of the most marginal Ealing, where she holds a health and adult seats in the country. Gallagher has confirmed that two of his top services portfolio. She works at the Centre for priorities are affordable housing and improving infrastructure. He Social Justice, the brainchild of former Tory feels the potential of the constituency is ‘unfulfilled’, partly down to leader Iain Duncan Smith, where she manages transport connections which are lacking. Gallagher is an experienced think-tank’s events programme. Prior to joining political operator, working as a special advisor to justice secretary the CSJ in November 2016, Morrissey worked in between 2012-2015 and is a former operations Parliament for two Conservative MPs. She has a director for the National Citizen Service - a nationwide programme strong interest in social justice and open to all 15-17 year-olds aimed at supporting social mobility and humanitarian causes including in Albania, cohesion. Since early 2017 he has been strategic director for East , China and India. Originally from West Rail, a new infrastructure project to link Oxford and Cambridge America, Morrissey speaks Chinese and by train. Albanian.

Halifax (Labour 428) Holly Lynch v Chris Pearson Wirral West (Labour 417) v Tony Caldeira Chris Pearson is currently a Councillor for Greetland and Stainland. He runs a business providing specialist services Tony Caldeira was originally selected to be the to young people and adults with learning and physical Conservative candidate in the City disabilities. He has pledged to boost jobs and growth in Region Mayoral election. He works in textiles, a Halifax if elected: ‘Caring for the most vulnerable is at the business which he started on a local market stall. heart of my own personal values. I’ve cared and supported He is a known supporter of the local grammar a close family member with disabilities all my life, which led schools in the area. Wirral West has been me to set up my own service to support others with similar described as a bellwether constituency, with needs. It is vital to have a strong economy to fund quality results in the constituency mirroring the national frontline services like our NHS and ensure Halifax gets the result at every election since its formation – that vital services, local people need... I will not rest until was until 2015 when former Conservative unemployment in Halifax is zero.’ minister, Esther McVey lost the seat to Labour.

Ilford North (Labour 589) v Lee Scott Newcastle under-Lyme (Labour 650) Paul Farrelly v Owen Meredith Lee Scott was the MP for Illford North from 2005 to 2015. He is an officer of the Conservative Friends of Israel and patron of Owen Meredith is a local candidate who has the UK Autism Foundation. Scott won praise for his work to pledged to work with businesses to bring more support parents and adults with autism and Asperger investment and improve local healthcare syndrome as well as raise awareness – beginning when he provision. His previous work includes assistant raised the issue in Prime Ministers Questions. After abstaining for a Staffordshire MP. Newcastle under-Lyme on the 2010 Tuition fee vote he was forced to resign his was highly marginal in 2015 and the local MPs position as an aid to then Transport Secretary Philip office was caught off guard by the snap Hammond. Scott had previously said he would not stand to General Election, telling a BBC reporter: "We become an MP again but relented after explaining he had are being outgunned…It's an uphill battle like received over “200 calls” from supporters urging him to do never before. What we are used to in marginal so. Ukip have not stood any candidate in the seat, where they seats is a mass mobilisation from safer seats - took 4,355 votes. Scott has said he is stunned by the news but and hopeless seats, quite frankly, and that's stressed there was no ‘Bluekip’ agreement. not happening this time." 4 TitleTop Conservative Target Seats

Wolverhampton South West (Labour 801) Eleanor Smith v Barrow and Furness (Labour 795) John Woodcock v Simon Fell Paul Uppal is another former MP who lost his Fell is a Director at a not-for-profit organisation working to seat in 2015. While in parliament he served prevent fraud and other financial crime. Fell works with law as PPS to . In 2015 Uppal secured enforcement to improve response to fraud and help prevent £13.5m of government funding to redevelop vulnerable people from becoming victims. Prior to this Fell ran a Station. The seat is a historical small communications firm. He has stated priority would be marginal; Uppal lost the seat in 2015 by 801 infrastructure, commenting: ‘“Our roads are outdated and we votes to – the man Uppal had simply don’t have a viable rail service at present. It’s simply ousted in 2010 by 691 votes. This time Uppal staggering that the Labour candidate last raised the Furness Rail faces a trade unionist and nurse, Eleanor as an issue in parliament in 2014.” Smith, and has reflected, “This time I am older, wiser, and more long-term in my views in how to get things done rather than any short-term fix.” Uppal has stated his priorities were he to be elected once again would be to continue to Hove (Labour 1236) Peter Kyle v Kristy Adams build on Wolverhampton’s industrial heritage as well as create opportunities for growth and Kirsty Adams is a small business owner who has pledged jobs. to promote Hove & Portslade as a technology and arts hub. To help achieve this she has pledged to gain more education funding by lobbying for a reinstatement of the Arts Council’s Creative Partnerships programme. In 2016 she won a gold medal as part of a team that created a “modern slavery garden” at the Chelsea Flower Show, a Enfield North (Labour 1086) v Nick project backed by Prime Minister Theresa May when she De Bois was Home Secretary. A former councillor for Bedford, Adams is an outspoken Christian who believes in the Nick De Bois has a long history of fighting election power of prayer, claiming this month that she once healed campaigns. Contesting Enfield North several a man who was deaf in both ears by laying her hands on times. Following his election to Enfield North in the man’s ears and saying “be healed in Jesus’ name.” 2010, he served on the Public Administration and Justice Committees. He also served as secretary of the 1922 Committee. While an MP de Bois won plaudits for his organisation of a regular jobs fair – when it began in 2011 unemployment in Enfield North was an above average 6.6%. Hampstead and Kilburn (Labour 1138) Though only 150-300 people were expected to Tulip Siddiq v Claire-Louise Leyland come over 1200 attended. Shocked by the interest and demand de Bois decided to make Claire-Louise Leyland has served as a local the fair a regular event. By 2015, his constituency councillor and Leader of the Opposition in saw a reduction in youth unemployment Camden. She has previously campaigned of nearly 50 per cent and overall unemployment against HS2 and over development whilst down by 42 per cent. supporting local libraries. Leyland is a qualified therapist who works with children. She has stressed her interest in education, in particular free schools. She is also a governor of a local NHS trust who has volunteered to support bereaved families 5 and Syrian refugee children suffering PTSD. TitleTop 5 Safest Seats

Tony Lloyd – (Labour 12,442)

Tony Lloyd was selected to contest Rochdale after the previous incumbent, , was de-selected. Danczuk had held the Rochdale seat since 2010 and served as an independent MP following his suspension. In his letter of resignation this week he wrote the Labour Party was no longer a "positive political." Danczuk has announced he will run against Lloyd as an independent. Lloyd is a former MP who was first elected in 1987 and served as Shadow Minister for a series of posts. He served as a Foreign Office Minister for two years until 1999 when he was removed after it emerged that the UK has broken a weapons embargo on Sierra Leone. Never returning to the front benches, he became an increasingly vocal opponent to a number of ‘’s’ initiatives including the war in Iraq, tuition fees, foundation hospitals and renewal of Trident. Most recently Lloyd was chosen to be interim Mayor of Greater Manchester in May 2015.

Bim Afolami – Hitchin and Harpenden (Conservative 20,055)

Bim Afolami is a corporate lawyer selected to contest the seat following the decision of MP Peter Lilley to stand down after serving the constituency since its creation in 1997. Afolami previously contested the safe Labour seat of Lewisham Deptford at the 2015 General Election and has been described as a “Cameroon” Conservative. If elected he has indicated he would be interested in serving on the Commons Treasury Select Committee.

Daniel Carden—Liverpool Walton (Labour 27,777)

In a controversial selection, Daniel Carden was chosen to defend, though many would argue – inherit – Liverpool Walton. The seat, formally held by Steve Rotherham before becoming elected as Liverpool’s Metro Mayor, is a Labour stronghold. Carden has worked as a senior Unite official who, beyond being born in the city, has been criticised for having no meaningful links with the area. A former aide to Labour MP Grahame Morris, Carden has worked most recently as a trusted aide of Unite Union leader Len McCluskey. Mr Carden has been described by the Liverpool Echo as a “relative unknown”. The paper quoted one local member as saying: “, though his work with Len McCluskey, is close to [Jeremy Corbyn] and everyone in his office - if there’s going to be a stitch-up then he’s the man”. Ben Williams, secretary of the Liverpool Walton CLP, has said he will resign over what he called an ‘undemocratic stitch up’.

Bob Seely – (Conservative 13,703)

Bob Seely is a former foreign correspondent and soldier described by ConservativeHome as a counter-terrorism expert. During his time in the TA Seely was deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan, receiving the Joint Commander’s Commendation for his service in Iraq in 2009. He was awarded a military MBE in 2016. He has written on the importance of serving the needs of veterans, highlighting the need to avoid perceptions of "slacking" by politicians. In 2009, he suggested that patriotism might be "the next big idea to hit British politics, as well as a potential dividing line between the Left and Right". Seely has been active in calling for further consultation on plans for devolution, and has been a vocal opponent of development plans.

Laura Pidcock–North West Durham (Labour 10,056)

Laura Pidcock was selected to replace in Durham North. Prior to her selection she has been a councillor, community campaigner and trade unionist though she began her career as a mental health support worker before becoming manager of the education team for ‘Show Racism the Red Card’ for eight years. She also holds a Masters in Disaster Management and Sustainable Development. Pidcock is seen as a relatively far left candidate. She has been a member of Labour’s working on early years, education and skills policy. She has commented: “Local people need a Labour MP and a Labour Government. A Labour MP who will ensure our NHS is given the funding it needs to look after you. Someone who will fight to ensure our schools have the funding they need to deliver good 6 teaching in every school. Someone who will stand up for local councils against Tory funding cuts which are damaging services in North West Durham. Someone who makes sure Brexit works for working people.” TitleEngaging with Politics

Further signalling her break with Cameron’s style, it was announced on 10 May that Theresa May would not seek a letter of endorsement from prominent business leaders during the election campaign. The endorsement letter, signed by various luminaries and published with much fanfare, was a staple of the campaigns of , and both sides of the 2016 EU referendum. Fiona Hill, one of May’s closest advisers, is said to detest letters though there could be other ideological reasons for not seeking the support letter: campaign strategist Lynton Crosby is said to think that the party will be better placed to gain Labour voters if it does not appear as close to big business as David Cameron was. Certainly relations have been rocky after May jettisoned the ‘business advisory group’, denounced “citizens of nowhere”, rowed with the Bank of and played with intervening in boardrooms. Though business leaders have previously complained May is too ‘guarded’ in her approach to them, some have praised her for being a good listener. However, Malcolm Walker, chief executive of Iceland Foods, warned that politicians were failing to speak up for business: “Business is becoming a dirty word. We’re the engine that drives the British economy.”

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