TitleMaitland View Today, we'll see Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn swap what would be expected to be their normal campaign itineraries. The Prime Minister is touring North East, where she will accuse the Labour Party of abandoning the patriotic working class. It is expected she will deliver the speech, in a similar fashion to her other general election addresses, standing in front of a bank of suited Conservative candidates and quarantined from any members of the What have we learnt this week? general public. The Conservative are yet to hit their first Jeremy Corbyn, meanwhile, will pitch his real problem of this campaign. They foreign policy credentials at Chatham glided through the election spending House, taking on critics of his approach to scandal and remain high in the polls. All intervention and the use of nuclear this being equal, Theresa May will weapons. He will argue that he is not a returned to number 10 with an enormous pacifist and would support military action if majority. it has been sanctioned by the UN and is in accordance with international law, despite Labour, by accident or design, have got a having previously approved such action. In lot of coverage after their manifesto leak. his speech this morning, Corbyn will also The policies are popular, the leader distance himself from Donald Trump in a unpopular, and the polls stubborn. The thinly veiled jab to the Prime Minister's party divided, MPs bracing for defeat and recent visit to the US, saying "Pandering to government seeming a long way away. an erratic Trump administration will not deliver stability … So no more hand-holding Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats have with Donald Trump; a Labour government largely failed to achieve cut through, a will conduct a robust and independent surge in policies, announcements and foreign policy made in London." busy work, but little shift in the polls. The Liberal Democrats take a very different With four weeks left to go, it remains tone, announcing a policy to offer a month down to the opposition parties to change of paternity leave as part of the shared the political weather if they are to avoid a parental leave policy they delivered during landside Conservative victory. the coalition government. 1 TitleThis week’s polls Party Predicted Votes Predicted Seats Conservative 48.6% 412 Labour 27.1% 160 Liberal Democrat 9.9% 7 UKIP 6.0% 0 Green 2.6% 0 SNP 4.2% 50 Plaid Cymru 0.6% 3 Other 1% 0 N.Ire 18 Currently, the probability of the Conservatives coming out of the other side of the General Election with a majority is at a lofty 83%, while the probability of a Labour majority stands at just 4%. On current trends, the Conservative Party is due to win 414 seats (with 314 solid, 43 likely, 50 leaning and 7 tossup); the Labour Party is due to win 153 seats (with 80 solid, 42 likely, 24 leaning and 7 tossup); the SNP is likely to win 48 seats (with 31 solid, 6 likely, 7 leaning and 4 tossup); the Liberal Democrats are due to win 13 seats (with 6 likely, 6 leaning and 1 tossup); Plaid Cymru is likely to win 3 seats (1 solid and 2 leaning); the Green Party is likely to win 1 seat; and UKIP is due to win no seats. Source: Electoral Calculus 2 Prediction based on opinion polls from 19 Apr 2017 to 10 May 2017, sampling 12,005 people. Seat projections: ScenariPolitici TitleAmbition, Entrenchment and Wishful Thinking The graph below illustrates the story of this election campaign thus far. The Conservatives, well ahead in the polls and on course for a substantial majority, are targeting a vast swathe of Labour seats with majorities of well above 5,000 votes. While many of these seats would usually be considered safe, the Conservatives are in a strong position to capitalise on the large ‘Leave’ vote in these areas. Labour are retrenching their position and putting their efforts to winning seats in very marginal constituencies. The Lib Dems meanwhile face a tough task – fighting to overcome big Conservative majorities from 2015 in areas that also strongly backed Brexit. In focus: Prospective Parliamentary Candidates Confirmed All Prospective Parliamentary Candidates had to confirm their intention to stand by 4pm on 11 May. The following is a brief biography of the men and women standing in the Conservatives’ top target seats. What is perhaps most striking is the lack of people completely new to politics. The vast majority are local councillors, former parliamentary researchers or have stood for seats previously. Many are also former MPs for their chosen constituency. We also have a brief account of the fresh(er) faces chosen for the some of the safest seats in the country for both parties. Barring a very unlikely series of events, these five people are almost guaranteed to be returned to Westminster come 9 June. 3 TitleTop Conservative Target Seats Ealing Central and Acton (Labour 274) Rupa Huq v Joy Morrissey City of Chester (Labour 93) Chris Matheson v Will Gallagher Joy Morrissey is a Conservative Councillor in Will Gallagher has been chosen to fight one of the most marginal Ealing, where she holds a health and adult seats in the country. Gallagher has confirmed that two of his top services portfolio. She works at the Centre for priorities are affordable housing and improving infrastructure. He Social Justice, the brainchild of former Tory feels the potential of the constituency is ‘unfulfilled’, partly down to leader Iain Duncan Smith, where she manages transport connections which are lacking. Gallagher is an experienced think-tank’s events programme. Prior to joining political operator, working as a special advisor to justice secretary the CSJ in November 2016, Morrissey worked in Chris Grayling between 2012-2015 and is a former operations Parliament for two Conservative MPs. She has a director for the National Citizen Service - a nationwide programme strong interest in social justice and open to all 15-17 year-olds aimed at supporting social mobility and humanitarian causes including in Albania, cohesion. Since early 2017 he has been strategic director for East Kosovo, China and India. Originally from West Rail, a new infrastructure project to link Oxford and Cambridge America, Morrissey speaks Chinese and by train. Albanian. Halifax (Labour 428) Holly Lynch v Chris Pearson Wirral West (Labour 417) Margaret Greenwood v Tony Caldeira Chris Pearson is currently a Councillor for Greetland and Stainland. He runs a business providing specialist services Tony Caldeira was originally selected to be the to young people and adults with learning and physical Conservative candidate in the Liverpool City disabilities. He has pledged to boost jobs and growth in Region Mayoral election. He works in textiles, a Halifax if elected: ‘Caring for the most vulnerable is at the business which he started on a local market stall. heart of my own personal values. I’ve cared and supported He is a known supporter of the local grammar a close family member with disabilities all my life, which led schools in the area. Wirral West has been me to set up my own service to support others with similar described as a bellwether constituency, with needs. It is vital to have a strong economy to fund quality results in the constituency mirroring the national frontline services like our NHS and ensure Halifax gets the result at every election since its formation – that vital services, local people need... I will not rest until was until 2015 when former Conservative unemployment in Halifax is zero.’ minister, Esther McVey lost the seat to Labour. Ilford North (Labour 589) Wes Streeting v Lee Scott Newcastle under-Lyme (Labour 650) Paul Farrelly v Owen Meredith Lee Scott was the MP for Illford North from 2005 to 2015. He is an officer of the Conservative Friends of Israel and patron of Owen Meredith is a local candidate who has the UK Autism Foundation. Scott won praise for his work to pledged to work with businesses to bring more support parents and adults with autism and Asperger investment and improve local healthcare syndrome as well as raise awareness – beginning when he provision. His previous work includes assistant raised the issue in Prime Ministers Questions. After abstaining for a Staffordshire MP. Newcastle under-Lyme on the 2010 Tuition fee vote he was forced to resign his was highly marginal in 2015 and the local MPs position as an aid to then Transport Secretary Philip office was caught off guard by the snap Hammond. Scott had previously said he would not stand to General Election, telling a BBC reporter: "We become an MP again but relented after explaining he had are being outgunned…It's an uphill battle like received over “200 calls” from supporters urging him to do never before. What we are used to in marginal so. Ukip have not stood any candidate in the seat, where they seats is a mass mobilisation from safer seats - took 4,355 votes. Scott has said he is stunned by the news but and hopeless seats, quite frankly, and that's stressed there was no ‘Bluekip’ agreement. not happening this time." 4 TitleTop Conservative Target Seats Wolverhampton South West (Labour 801) Eleanor Smith v Paul Uppal Barrow and Furness (Labour 795) John Woodcock v Simon Fell Paul Uppal is another former MP who lost his Fell is a Director at a not-for-profit organisation working to seat in 2015. While in parliament he served prevent fraud and other financial crime. Fell works with law as PPS to David Willetts. In 2015 Uppal secured enforcement to improve response to fraud and help prevent £13.5m of government funding to redevelop vulnerable people from becoming victims.