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FEMA 177-Estimating Losses from Future Earthquakes (Panel Report

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FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY FEMA-177/ JUNE 1989 Estimating Losses From Future Earthquakes (Panel Report and Technical Background) A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A • A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS REDUCTION SERIES 51 Issued by FEMA in furtherance of the Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. FEDERALEMERGENCYMANAGEMENTAGENCY Estimating Losses From Future Earthquakes (Panel Report and Technical Background) Panel on Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology Committee on Earthquake Engineering Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competence& and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organisation of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognises the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel 0. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This study was supported by the Federal Emergency Management Agency under contract No. EMW-86-G-2366 to the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this report are those of the committee and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Limited number of copies available without charge from: Committee on Earthquake Engineering Division of Natural Huard Mitigation 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 202/334-3312 Printed in the United States of America COMMITTEE ON EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING (1985-1988) GEORGE W. HOUSNER, Chairman, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena CHRISTOPHER ARNOLD, Building Systems Development, Inc., San Mateo, California JAMES E. BEAVERS, Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge, Tennessee RAY CLOUGH, Department of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley C. B. CROUSE, The Earth Technology Corporation, Long Beach, California RICHARD DOBRY, Department of Civil Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York WILLIAM J. HALL, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign ROBERT D. HANSON, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor JOHN LOSS, School of Architecture, University of Maryland, College Park FRANK E. MCCLURE, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley JOANNE NIGG, Center for Public Affairs, Arizona State University, Tempe OTTO W. NUTTLI, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department, St. Louis University, Missouri ROBERT V. WHITMAN, Department of Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge Liaison Representatives WILLIAM H. ALLERTON, Division of Inspections, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C. WILLIAM A. ANDERSON, Program Director, Division of Critical Engineering Systems, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. C. CHESTER BIGELOW, Division of Advanced Technology Development, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. FRED COLE, Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. iii JAMES COOPER, Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C. JAMES F. COSTELLO, Division of Engineering Technology, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C. CHARLES CULVER, Center for Building Technology, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, Maryland RICHARD F. DAVIDSON, Geotechnical Branch, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Department of the Army, Washington, D.C. A. J. EGGENBERGER, Program Director, Division of Critical Engineering Systems, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. G. ROBERT FULLER, Structural Engineering Division, Office of Architecture and Engineering Standards, Department of Housing and Urban Development, Washington, D.C. WALTER W. HAYS, Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Engineering, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia JAMES R. HILL, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation Program, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. PAUL KRUMPE, Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. EDGAR V. LEYENDECKER, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado RICHARD D. MCCONNELL, Veterans Administration, Washington, D.C. JANINA Z. MIRSKI, Structural Division, Veterans Administration, Washington, D.C. UGO MORELLI, Office of Natural and Technological Hazards, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C. ROBERT NICHOLSON, Federal Highway Administration, McLean, Virginia MIKE REED, Strategi~Structures Branch, Defense Nuclear Agency, Washington; D.C. CHARLES F. SCHEFFEY, Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C. JOSEPH TYRELL, Naval Facilities Engineering Command, U.S. Department of the Navy, Alexandria, Virginia J. LAWRENCE VON THUN, Bureau of Reclamation, Department of the Interior, Denver SPENCER WU, Air Force Office of Scientific Research, U.S. Department of the Air Force, Washington, D.C. iv ARTHUR ZEIZEL, Office of Natural and Technological Hazards, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C. Staff Riley M. Chung, Committee Director 0. Allen lsraelsen, Consultant Barbara J. Rice, Consultant Editor Lally Anne Anderson, Administrative Secretary Norma A. Giron, Secretary Denise A. Grady, Secretary v PANEL ON EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY ROBERT V. WHITMAN, Chairman, Department of Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge CHRISTOPHER ARNOLD, Building Systems Development, Inc., San Mateo, California RICHARD N. BOISVERT, Department of Agricultural Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York GILBERT A. BOLLINGER, Department of Geological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia HENRY J. DEGENKOLB, H. J. Degenkolb Associates, San Francisco, California EDWARD S. FRATTO, Massachusetts Civil Defense Agency and Office of Emergency Preparedness, Framingham ROBERT P. KENNEDY, Consultant, Yorba Linda, California FRANK E. MCCLURE, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley ROBIN K. MCGUIRE, Risk Engineering, Inc., Golden, Colorado ALVIN MUSHKATEL, School of Public Affairs, Arizona State University, Tempe ROBERT B. RIGNEY, Redlands, California JEAN B. SAVY, Geosciences Group, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, Livermore, California DANIELE VENEZIANO, Department of Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge DELBERT B. WARD, Architect, Salt Lake City, Utah Consultants GREGORY ANDRANOVICH, Cosmos Corporation, Washington, D.C. ROBERT REITHERMAN, The Reitherman Company, HalfMoon
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