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Rwanda Burundi COUNTRY REPORT Rwanda Burundi The full publishing schedule for Country Reports is now available on our web site at http://www.eiu.com/schedule. 3rd quarter 1999 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.20) 7499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.eiu.com Electronic delivery EIU Electronic New York: Lou Celi or Lisa Hennessey Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 London: Jeremy Eagle Tel: (44.20) 7830 1183 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 This publication is available on the following electronic and other media: Online databases NewsEdge Corporation (US) Microfilm FT Profile (UK) Tel: (1.718) 229 3000 World Microfilms Publications Tel: (44.20) 7825 8000 (UK) DIALOG (US) CD-ROM Tel: (44.20) 7266 2202 Tel: (1.415) 254 7000 The Dialog Corporation (US) LEXIS-NEXIS (US) SilverPlatter (US) Tel: (1.800) 227 4908 M.A.I.D/Profound (UK) Tel: (44.20) 7930 6900 Copyright © 1999 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 1465-6418 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK Contents 3 Summary Rwanda 5 Political structure 6 Economic structure 7 Outlook for 1999-2000 11 Review 11 The political scene 15 Health 16 The economy 17 Agriculture 17 Foreign trade and payments Burundi 19 Political structure 20 Economic structure 21 Outlook for 1999-2000 24 Review 24 The political scene 29 The economy 30 Agriculture 33 Quarterly indicators and trade data List of tables 10 Rwanda: forecast summary 23 Burundi: forecast summary 33 Rwanda: quarterly indicators of economic activity 33 Burundi: quarterly indicators of economic activity 34 Rwanda: foreign trade 35 Burundi: foreign trade List of figures 10 Rwanda: gross domestic product 10 Rwanda: exchange rate 23 Burundi: gross domestic product 23 Burundi: exchange rate EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1999 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1999 . 3 August 20th 1999 Summary 3rd quarter 1999 Rwanda Outlook for 1999-2000: Donors will give tacit their approval to the RPF’s transition programme. The recently appointed foreign minister will face limitations in his new job, while the parliamentary discipline committee will continue unchecked. Rwanda will be keen to disarm Palir militia in Congo, and prospects for Palir inside Rwanda are grim. The Rwandan-supported Congo rebel faction may try to capture Mbuji-Mayi. Construction of the planned railway to Tanzania will take time. Real GDP growth is expected to remain strong in 1999, at 8%, falling back slightly, to 6%, next year. The next stage of the coffee sector’s liberalisation will dampen incentives for producers. A new debt-relief deal is expected to be worth $25m-35m per year. Review: The political transition under the RPF has continued. The foreign affairs minister has been sacked, while more parliamentarians have been removed by a special committee. The Rwandan Human Rights Commission has been elected, and a test case is for Rwandan press freedom is pending. The RPA has continued to fight in Congo, while the Lusaka peace talks have commited regional states to disarming Palir. Rwanda has backed Emile Ilunga’s rebel RCD faction—which has not signed the ceasefire agreement. A new Supreme Court has been named. Rwandan courts have sentenced fewer people to death for genocidal crimes, although more have been found guilty at the ICTR in Arusha, and more countries have agreed to imprison those convicted by the ICTR. The former Swedish prime minister Ingvar Carlsson is to head the UN’s own genocide probe. The Great Lakes initiative against AIDS is to be based in Kigali. Electrogaz’s water and energy components have been separated, and Shell has finally acquired the assets of the state oil company, Petrorwanda. Three new commercial banks are to be set up. The Virunga national park has been reopened. RPA-linked companies are allegedly selling Congolese minerals. Swift action has minimised the threat posed to agriculture by worms, and higher producer prices have boosted the coffee crop. Rwanda stands to receive major debt relief, and the EU has resumed aid to the country. Burundi Outlook for 1999-2000: The five-year timetable for the transition to civilian rule could well slip. The success of the transition will hinge on reform of the military. Frodebu seems to be finding it increasingly difficult to govern on its own. President Buyoya will be tempted to talk directly to the CNDD-FDD rebel faction. Burundi’s soldiers in Congo will probably retreat closer to the border. Substantial balance-of-payments from donors support may not be forthcoming this year, and this could have dire consequences for Burundi’s economy and increase unemployment. Adverse weather conditions and political insecurity are likely to hamper agricultural production. Review: The indications are that President Buyoya is planning to remain in power for at least five years. Schisms have emerged in the negotiating teams at the all-party Arusha conference, and the fifth round of talks was delayed. The CNDD-FDD is still excluded from Arusha and has requested direct talks with EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1999 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1999 4 the government. Divisions have appeared within Frodebu. The civil war has intensified once again. Burundi has committed itself to the ceasefire in Congo. A new penal code has been adopted, and the chief prosecutor has initiated reforms to the justice system. The government has clamped down on the press. Tax receipts were lower than expected in the first half of 1999. There have been more fuel shortages, and the currency has depreciated further. Doubts have grown about Andover’s ability to finance the development of Musongati. The Kayenzi hydroelectric dam has run out of water, while poor rains and army worms have threatened harvests. The government has provided fresh credit to agricultural producers. Editor: Noah Beckwith All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 Next report: Our next Country Report will be published in November EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1999 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1999 Rwanda 5 Rwanda Political structure Official name République Rwandaise Form of state Unitary republic Legal system Based on Belgian law, the June 1991 constitution and the Arusha accords of August 1993 National legislature Assemblée nationale, with 70 members, appointed by the government in consultation with party leaders National elections December 1988 (presidential and legislative); next elections: no date has yet been set Head of state President, Pasteur Bizimungu, appointed by the RPF on July 17th 1994 National government Self-appointed in July 1994; consists of ministers from the RPF, MDR, PSD, PL and PCD; last reshuffle February 1999 Main political parties Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF); Mouvement démocratique républicain (MDR); Rassemblement pour le retour des réfugiés et la démocratie au Rwanda (RDR); Forces de résistance pour la démocratie (FRD); Coalition pour la défense de la république (CDR); Parti centriste démocrate (PCD); Parti libéral (PL); Parti social démocrate (PSD) President Pasteur Bizimungu (RPF) Prime minister Pierre-Célestin Rwigyema (MDR) Vice-president, minister of defence & national security Paul Kagame (RPF) Key ministers Agriculture, animal resources & forestry Ephraim Kabaija (RPF) Commerce, industry & tourism Marc Rugenera (PSD) Communications Charles Ntakirutinka (PSD) Education Emmanuel Mudidi (RPF) Energy, water & natural resources Bonaventure Niyibizi (independent) Finance & economic planning Donald Kaberuka (independent) Foreign affairs & regional co-operation Augustin Iyamuremye (PSD) Health Ezechias Rwabuhihi (RPF) Information vacant Interior & community development Abdulkarim Harelimana (RPF) Justice Jean de Dieu Mucyo (independent) Lands, human resettlement & environmental protection Joseph Nsengimana
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