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Raisina Files VOLUME 04 • JANUARY 2019 2019 RAISINA FILES Debating Future Frameworks in a Disrupted World EDITED BY RITIKA PASSI Raisina Files is an annual ORF publication that brings together emerging and established voices in a collection of essays. These essays strive to engage readers on key, contemporary questions that are implicating the world and India. Arguments presented in this collection will be useful in taking conversations forward and enunciating policy suggestions for an evolving Asian and world order. The views expressed in this publication are those of the individual authors. © Observer Research Foundation 2019 ISBN: 978-93-88262-72-9 Layout and Typeset: Anuj Malhotra (www.fantomas.in) Printer: Vinset Advertising, New Delhi RAISINA FILES Debating Future Frameworks in a Disrupted World EDITED BY RITIKA PASSI IN THIS VOLUME n 2019, US-China trading blows will become a full- implications bearing heavily on how states are engaging blown trade war. The two will also clash, military with one another. and politically, in the Indo-Pacific as competition, Governance and cooperation is becoming harder, claims Icontainment, and counter-containment come to a head. the US National Intelligence Council’s latest Global Conflict across the middle spaces of the Eurasian landmass Trends, and the conclusion passes muster particularly in the will not be far behind, thanks to the US withdrawal from face of flailing existing and legacy systems and mechanisms. the Iran nuclear deal, potential resurgence of Shia-Sunni It can be argued, however, that in crisis and chaos — in violence, and flaring up of tensions in eastern Ukraine, the very recognition of fault-lines and fractures — lie the between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and in Afghanistan. opportunity to re-evaluate status quo or shift; to brainstorm Cyber attacks on critical information infrastructures will how best to address and accommodate, correct and improve; populate the year, and a renewed arms race will complicate and to institute policy steps, which at the very least, even if regional and global power dispensations. reactive and piecemeal, keep prospects for escalation at bay. Such is the risk analysis — all for this coming year — (Or in other words, what other choice do we have?) advanced by a collection of global experts, former heads of It follows then that in an effort to manage attendant risks states, and Nobel Laureates.1 Great power competition, a that a disrupted world will engender new and improved returned feature of international politics, remains a defining organising rules, principles, and arrangements; a re- threat, with “uncertainty” and “insecurity” leading the fray affirmation of existing institutions and partnerships will for many observers. Stratfor’s 2019 annual forecast sees it not cut it. centred around the United States, China, and Russia across mutliple fields and regions. This year’s edition of the Raisina Files asks just that: what are the solutions to guide the way forward into the 21st Year in, year out, the well of predications for chaos and century? What normative contributions and institution- crisis refuses to run dry, and risks remain high: rising building processes are being put forward by states and tensions not only between countries but also within are stakeholders to manage power relationships, accelerate or anticipated for the foreseeable future.2 Weak growth temper trends, and shape geographies? and rising protectionism, governance gaps and populist pressures, demographic time bombs and dividends, and The first set of essays inside unpacks new and emerging misinformation and echo chambers are among trends and institutions. 1 These are some of the scenarios and likelihoods explored in the study “Global Risks for Eurasia in 2019,” presented at the fourth annual meeting of the Astana Club. Martin Banks, “World faces economic slowdown, spiralling conflicts in 2019,” European Business Review 4 (2018): 30-31. 2 See, for instance, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, “Global Trends: Paradox of Progress, https://www.dni.gov/index.php/global-trends-home 4 RAISINA FILES • JANUARY 2019 Jason A. Kirk scrutinises the Asian Infrastructure whether there is need to re-visit social contracts in the Investment Bank as both a development finance 21st century.4 institution and a Chinese proposition. The role of the Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan takes to task the power AIIB among established financial institutions, as well politics that have been undermining the nuclear non- as among other Chinese foreign policy engagements, is proliferation regime. Questions of responsibility and rightly important to monitor — an exercise that is only leadership will prove increasingly important in the age of beginning, given AIIB’s infancy, and which will help multipolarity manifested across domains — does the onus gauge to what extent China is both shaping and being rest on the most powerful? What critical momentum can shaped by the international system. “middle” powers or regional leaders add to institution- Hugo Seymour and Jeffrey Wilson advance the proposed building and norm-making? Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership as Kara Frederick reviews the ongoing state-led process to an institution that affirms the Indo-Pacific construct, govern lethal autonomous weapons systems and posits alleviates the noodle bowl problem, and acts as an that the civilian private sector, as prominent creators of effective model that suits the needs of Asian developing rapidly advancing technologies, can participate in norm- economies. The conversation on RCEP goes to the heart building. The social contract we sign with emerging of how other actors are shouldering greater burdens of technologies is an urgent area of investigation. sustaining economic globalistaion as the traditional bulwark recedes behind tariff walls. This year, we backstop this collection with a “big idea.” Arun Mohan Sukumar investigates the potential Caitlin Byrne offers a cautionary look at the “Quad”: its and emerging consequences of proliferating digital current members hold slightly different expectations from ID platforms in the space beyond states, i.e., global such a mechanism, and casting a wider and inclusive net governance, particularly in the field of international may be a better bet to achieving substantive returns. This development. Even as debate is rife about the legitimacy intervention introduces the need to perhaps shift away and continuation of a liberal international order, it is time from “balance of power” towards “power of balance” in to explore how technology can make or break efficient this transition period defined by multipolarity. governance. Paula Kift deep dives into the setting up of EU’s law on As risks proliferate, so does the need to manage them and data protection, the General Data Protection Regulation, the opportunities, should traditional, new, and potential before summarising the key questions that will face the solution-providers take it up, to deliver imaginative, implementation of the legislation and implications for responsive, and flexible frameworks. Indeed, far from a EU and beyond. The essays opens the door to positioning case of “solutions looking for a problem,” to borrow a such legislation in the emerging debate around who quote cited in an essay in this compilation, it is very owns data, “the most important element of tomorrow’s much, today, a case of many more pressing problems and power.”3 far fewer functional solutions. The second set of essays explores responses and institutionalisation processes in re-invigorated and It is hoped this fourth edition of the Raisina Files offers emerging thematic spaces. interpretations that contribute to the thought pool moving forward in correcting this imbalance. Stephen Tankel’s essay highlights two inter-related contemporary trends when it comes to jihad — rebel governance and propaganda — through a portrayal of the actions of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. Debating state response leads the way to further reflect on whether there is a “battle for mindspace” underway — and Ritika Passi, Associate Fellow and Project Editor, ORF 3 In the words of Hans-Christian Hagman, Senior Advisor to the Swedish State Secretary for Foreign Affairs, during Raisina Dialogue 2018. 4 See, for instance Jamie Gaskarth, “The emerging social contract in Asia,” Raisina Files 2017: Debating the World in an Asian Century, ed. Ritika Passi and Harsh V. Pant (New Delhi: ORF, January 2017): 34-41. RAISINA FILES • JANUARY 2019 5 INSTITUTIONS CHINA AND THE ASIAN INFRASTRUCTURE 10 INVESTMENT BANK: IF YOU BUILD IT, THEY WILL COME (OR, A RIVER RUNS THROUGH IT) CAN THE QUAD NAVIGATE 18 THE COMPLEXITIES OF A DYNAMIC INDO-PACIFIC? RCEP: AN ECONOMIC ARCHITECTURE FOR THE INDO-PACIFIC? 26 POWER TO WHOM? PRIVACY IN A POST-GDPR WORLD 34 SPACES HOW JIHADISTS WENT GLOCAL AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT 44 THE RETURN OF POWER POLITICS 52 AND NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION THE CIVILIAN PRIVATE SECTOR: 60 PART OF A NEW ARMS CONTROL REGIME? BIG IDEA GOVERNANCE BY TECHNICAL STANDARDS: 68 DO DIGITAL ID PLATFORMS RE-ORDER OR REINFORCE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS? 2019 INSTITUTIONS CHINA AND THE ASIAN INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT BANK: IF YOU BUILD IT, THEY WILL COME (OR, A RIVER RUNS THROUGH IT) Jason A. Kirk Associate Professor, Political Science and Policy Studies, Elon University t began with a vision by China’s President Xi Jinping. and voting” power in the World Bank and International In October 2013, Xi made his first trip to Southeast Monetary Fund (IMF) in the wake of the 2007-09
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