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ALLIANZ GLOBAL CORPORATE & SPECIALTY® FUTURE FIRES WEATHERING THE FIRE STORM

Eagle Creek in Columbia River Gorge, Oregon. Source: Christian Roberts-Olsen / Shutterstock.com

WILDFIRE REPORT 2020 FUTURE FIRES: WEATHERING THE FIRE STORM

Sonoma & Napa Valley leave behind a trail of destruction. Source: Janos Rautonen / Shutterstock.com

It is only the beginning of the 2020 wildfire and already there have been 20,351 US wildfires between January 1 and June 12. Compare this to 16,630 fires during the same period in 20191. This report examines conditions 2019 WILDFIRE RISK BY THE NUMBERS contributing to an increase in both the number of wildfires and the length of wildfire . We explore how wildfires start and expand to what is being done to fight them, including safety checklists and a look at new and US improved . From a risk standpoint, the report also examines what Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) is doing to help our clients in the 4,664,364 4.5mn acres consumed by wildfires homes identified at high or area of claims settlements and catastrophe coordination. Sustainable extreme risk of wildfire, with more solutions that make a positive environmental impact and address - than 2mn in alone related concerns are included. And finally, we look at the additional challenges fire fighters must deal with in of COVID-19. 50,477 963 wildfires reported structures reported destroyed by wildfire HOW WILDFIRES START AND SPREAD

According to the US Department of Interior, as Examples of late season fires being compounded many as 90% of wildfires in the United States are by extreme include several Southern caused by people. Some are caused by California fires in 2019. WESTERN CANADA unattended , burning of , downed power lines, negligent discarding of cigarettes, and intentional . 2,325 904,549 wildfires reported hectares burned in Alberta & British In many cases, increasing -driven events Columbia combined cause fires to spread over greater distances creating exponential expansion of a wildfire. Fire spreads from hillsides to various points in the valleys creating spot fires with no relationship to the main wildfire body. Source: National Interagency Coordination Center, 2019 Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report, British Columbia Wildfire Season Summary 2019, 2019 Alberta Wildfire Season Statistics - March 1 to October 31, 2019 1 National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm 2 3 FUTURE FIRES: WEATHERING THE FIRE STORM

CALIFORNIA WILDFIRE A CLOSER LOOK AT 2019 PERIMETERS 2017-2019 WILDFIRES IN NORTH AMERICA

The in Sonoma County ignited on 200,000 8,000 October 23 and was active for 13 days. It burned people evacuated in California average number of wildfires over 77,000 acres–an area more than twice the Carr under a state of each year in Canada size of the city of . According to CalFire, there were 4 injuries, more than 350 Camp destroyed, and 60 more damaged. Some Ranch 90,000 buildings across an expansive evacuation zone were threatened. Wind gusts in some peaks were over 100 miles per hour. 2,498,159 2.5MN Kincade County acres burned in Alaska, accounting hectares average area burned per The week-long in broke out Tubbs Atlas for more than half of the nation’s Nuns year in Canada on October 28 and burned over 700 acres. The total burned acreage issued an Extreme Red Flag Warning for the area due to what were some of the strongest ever seen, with wind gusts up to 80 miles an hour. Over 7,000 residences were placed in a mandatory evacuation zone2. 93 45% average acres burned per fire in the US of all Canadian fires caused by The Santa Ana winds also contributed to the duration of the , October 31- November 6 burning 10,000 acres and destroying four structures.

Creek WHEN ONE FOLLOWS ANOTHER 2017 Thomas 2018 Across the United States and Canada, the scale of Woolsey $1.58BN 55% forest fires has increased to the degree that the 2019 federal spending on wildfire response of all Canadian fires caused by humans fires themselves are now contributing to the rise in greenhouse gas emissions. And some fires are even creating their own weather systems, making winds more erratic and conditions too dangerous

for to protect people and properties. Data sources: Aon 2019 Annual Report, Weather, Data sources: National Interagency Coordination Center and https://www.doi.gov/wildlandfire/suppression These fires are often called megafires and they & Catastrophe Insight; GeoMAC Government of Canada, Wildfires, October 30, 2019 are becoming more common. Some created powerful pyrocumulus that led to -infused . The lightning from these storms threatened new fires, which sometimes developed into fire tornadoes. CANADA: CAUSES AND OUTLOOK FOR 2020 The central and southern Pacific coast of British Areas of western Canada are already Columbia is expected to have increased risk in experiencing frequent and severe . Warmer do more than just dry out Approximately 8,000 wildfires occur each year in 2020. Actual numbers will depend to some degree Scientists expect new areas across the country to the land. They also up the , Canada, and the average area burned is 2.5mn on the status of Covid-19 restrictions. While the be affected and to become even more where clouds hold onto more moisture for longer hectares per year. Fires caused by lightning central portions of the Prairie Provinces are in the frequent and severe. Drought threatens Canada’s periods of time, causing severe drought and fire. represent 45% of all fires, but because they occur area of increased risk, conditions may continue forest and increases the threat of wildfires6. This is often followed by crushing that can’t in remote locations and often in clusters, they close to normal through much of that region, with be absorbed by severely dry lands. When represent 81% of the total area burned. Human- scattered spots at higher risk5. and mudslides destroy property where fires blazed caused fires represent 55% of all fires. They occur nearby, a cycle of what scientists call “compound in more populated areas and are usually reported extremes” – one climate disaster intensifying the and extinguished quickly4. 2 Information Institute, Facts + Statistics: Wildfires, 2019 3 3 New York Times, The fires are out, but Australia’s climate aren’t over, February 23, 2020 next – makes recovery more difficult . 4 Government of Canada, Wildfires, October 30, 2019 5 National Interagency Fire Center/Natural Resources Canada/Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook, June 2020 6 Government of Canada, Drought is expected to become more frequent and severe in parts of Canada, January 28, 2020 4 5 FUTURE FIRES: WEATHERING THE FIRE STORM Australian Bushfires The 2019 bushfire season in Australia was very severe. High temperatures, dry air, Number of properties at high to extreme risk from wildfire in 2019 and abundant flammable due to low , led to a very early bushfire State / Province Number of Properties* season. At year-end, the total reported cost of Australia’s wildfires, which straddled California 2,019,800 2019/20, was roughly USD $900mn. The loss now exceeds USD $1bn based on Texas 717,800 current exchange rates.

Colorado 371,100

British Columbia 259,100

Arizona 237,900

Idaho 175,000

Washington 160,500

Oklahoma 153,400

Oregon 151,400

Montana 137,800

Utah 136,000

New Mexico 131,600

Nevada 67,100 Bushfire in the Pilbara region of the Western Australian outback. Wyoming 36,800 Source: bmphotographer / Shutterstock.com Alberta 30,800

*US figures based on data from the 2010 US Census and Canadian figures based on data from the LOCATION® database; figures are rounded to the nearest 100 Source: 2019 Verisk Wildfire Risk Analysis USING TECHNOLOGY EVACUATIONS AND BLACKOUTS MADE 2019 UNIQUE TO OUTWIT WILDFIRES While 2019 wildfire activity in the US was not as The shutdowns drew widespread criticism from active as 2018, disruption was still significant, residents as well as government officials. Many leading to the evacuation of over 200,000 people businesses and residents complained of either As wildfires continue to scorch California, startup But some startups are ambitiously looking to and the declaration of a state of emergency in being misinformed or not informed when InsureTechs and existing tech companies have tackle wildfires head-on. Chooch AI, an artificial California. Last year, there were 49,786 wildfires shutdowns would occur. The state of California been working to develop tech innovations intelligence company based in San Francisco, is burning over 4.6 million acres, compared with developed programs to protect utility companies addressing extreme-weather disasters. Investors using a system that analyzes satellite images 55,911 wildfires, burning over 8.5 million acres in and consumers in the advent of future wildfire have stepped in to fund emerging efforts around every 10 minutes to identify where new wildfires the same period in 20187. events. The state legislature passed a bill which cleantech, a term used broadly to describe may have broken out. At the moment, firefighters created a $21bn state-run insurance pool to act as technology seeking to manage human impact on largely rely on traditional methods to spot fires – One of the most notable aspects of the 2019 a cushion for utility companies against future the environment. While hopeful, the technology typically people who call in after seeing smoke. California wildfire season was the introduction of wildfire claims9. can take years to prove and even longer to That can to false alarms and fires that go scheduled intentional power outages by utility convince traditional utilities and government unnoticed for too long, said Chooch CEO, Emrah companies when fire conditions were forecast. This agencies to adopt. “That’s a big bottleneck,” said Gultekin. Chooch’s technology is trained to spot was meant to minimize or eliminate ignition risk Bilal Zuberi, a venture capitalist at Lux Capital likely signs of wildfires, and then send photo from downed powerlines. These preemptive power who focuses on emerging tech investments. Zuberi emails to people at agencies, who can shutoffs occurred in approximately 30 counties in said a recent uptick in funding and activity is then verify if a fire has broken out. Gultekin says California for approximately 23 days total, by encouraging, but he also cautioned that new they’re talking with the California Department of Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), companies have to find ways to effectively Forestry and (Cal Fire), as it adapts Southern California Edison (SCE), and San Diego with slow-moving potential customers. its system to look for wildfires, although it’s early in Gas & Electric (SDG&E). The shutoffs initially the process. The company hopes to have the affected around 800,000 customers, or about 2 system live by next year’s wildfire season. million people. Stanford University’s Michael Wara, an expert on policy in California, estimated the total costs of the blackouts were 8 somewhere between $1.8bn and $2.6bn . 7 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Wildfires - Annual 2019, 2019 8 Vox, California’s deliberate blackouts were outrageous and harmful. They’re going to happen again, October 24, 2019 9 Aon Annual Report, Weather, Climate & Catastrophe Insight, 2019 6 7 FUTURE FIRES: WEATHERING THE FIRE STORM

HOW AI HELPS Descartes Labs, a spin-off of Los Alamos National Lab, uses artificial intelligence (AI) to detect wildfires. Their wildfire detector, launched in 2019, can correctly spot a wildfire in nine minutes. The wildfire detector uses images from two Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, GOES-16 and GOES-17, launched by the National Oceanic “It’s remarkable to watch the and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). These satellites growing impact drones are having provide a stream of high-resolution and imagery every five minutes. A variety of AI algorithms ensures the tool on wildfire assistance. This filters out false alarms, such as flares from and gas technology was essential to industries, controlled agricultural burning, or large fireworks displays. The algorithms take into account where refineries firefighting efforts in Northern are, locations of steel and copper mills, the overall terrain, California in 2017 and will continue and more. to be essential in reducing future For example, when the tool spots a wildfire in California, damage caused by wildfires.” Descartes Labs immediately broadcasts an alert to the LA Times who, in turn, reports it on their wildfire map. The Chuck Couch, detector can provide the exact latitude and longitude of the Regional Head of Aviation Programs & fire. In October 2019, Descartes detected the Kincade Fire in Product Development - North America, Sonoma County, CA, prompting the LA Times to release the Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty first public notice about it.10

Source: GOES-R Program, Quarterly Newsletter, Issue 27

WHERE HUMANS FEAR TO TREAD – THE POWER OF DRONES PREVENTING WILDFIRES SPARKED BY POWERLINES

Drone technology has been useful to firefighters for years. But as the technology develops, drones are California utilities are experimenting with a new Russell. Currently, electric companies “just kind of getting smaller and more powerful. They also have better payload options and can go where humans technology that proponents say could help have to wait until something breaks and then go cannot. An aerial view provides a quick assessment of the situation and allows fire crews to see through prevent both electricity shutoffs and equipment fix it,” Russell said. “DFA gives you real-time smoke and identify hotspots. Here are some ways firefighting drones help: failure related wildfires. The technology comes as situational awareness of the circuit. It allows you to the Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) faced intense know when things start to degrade.” The original • Scene Monitoring • Search & Rescue criticism over its Public Safety Power Shutoff purpose of the technology was to prevent costly – Rapid 360° assessment of burning structures – Survey large areas of inaccessible terrain program, which led to hundreds of thousands of power outages and prevent accidental – Floodlight illumination of nighttime operations – Payload drop systems deliver items Californians being left without power, often for electrocution from downed powerlines. “It just to victims and crew days at a time, in an effort to prevent failing turns out that the things that cause outages in the • Wildland Firefighting – Locate individuals at night with thermal equipment from starting wildfires. system are also things that start wildfires,” Russell – Visualize current fire conditions and imaging cameras and floodlights said. PG&E began testing the technology in 2019, respond immediately to change Distribution fault anticipation (DFA), is a technology as part of a larger project. “The technology is – Reduce ground crew risk with • Post-Fire or Disaster Assessment Survey using predictive algorithms to assess electric being evaluated along with other sensor enhanced monitoring – Map the scene to assess damage systems and identify potential equipment failures. as a way to detect emerging – Live stream reliable data to command centers – Search for and locate missing people B. Don Russell, a Texas A&M University professor, conditions on the electric grid and improve after a helped develop the technology as part of the situational awareness,” said PG&E spokesman – Use footage for future training purposes Power System Automation Laboratory. “It will be a Paul Doherty. “The evaluation phase is scheduled paradigm shift for the way utilities operate,” said to be completed by July 2020.”11

10 Business Insider, A look at how Descartes Labs is leveraging AI to alert fire managers of wildfires and decrease the damage on homes and across the US, December 19, 2019 11 The Sacramento Bee, California Utility Creates New Tech to Stop Wildfires, November 27, 2019 8 9 FUTURE FIRES: WEATHERING THE FIRE STORM

LEADING THE WAY IN SUSTAINABILITY

Global heating is increasing the likelihood and products and services that create social value or intensity of wildfires, which could have a growing support sustainable development. We created a impact on the achievement of the Sustainable category of insurance and assistance services Development Goals12. The Sustainable Development called Sustainable Solutions to improve lives, make Goals are a universal call to action by the United a positive environmental impact, and address Nations to achieve a better and more sustainable weather-related concerns. Allianz integrated ESG future for all. In September 2019, world leaders at (environmental, social and governance) criteria the SDG Summit called for a decade of action and into both insurance and investment businesses delivery for sustainable development, and several years ago. As a result, Allianz is recognized pledged to mobilize financing, enhance national as the most sustainable insurer worldwide, implementation and strengthen institutions to according to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index achieve the Goals by the target date of 2030. (DJSI). We have the business model and market presence to protect our clients from severe Sustainable development is a crucial element of weather risks, while contributing to a climate- Allianz’s daily business. We promote and monitor friendly economy and a fair society13.

THE IMPACT OF INSIGHT

Allianz Risk Consulting (ARC) experts from Allianz Allianz actively offers custom policies to help Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) review each business manage weather extremes including wildfire experience to drive strategies and insights rise and wind surges. “We’re working for our clients going forward. Recent wildfire seasons to understand client concerns and develop tailored have revealed power grid weakness, and further solutions,” said Karsten Berlage, Managing illustrated that we must ensure everyone is informed Director of Alternative Risk Transfer at AGCS. and prepared if massive power shutoffs are used as a wildfire prevention strategy. AGCS has developed Berlage sees increasing applicability of parametric solutions and suggestions that clients can implement insurance in a warming world. Parametric now to protect their assets. We understand our insurance is an innovative coverage triggered by unique role in mitigating and adapting to climate an index and is an increasingly attractive volatility, as both providers of risk protection and enhancement to some traditional insurance as major investors managing $30trn of assets. In policies. To develop a parametric solution, a policy line with our primary functions, we continue to is structured with certain events plainly stated in A WARMING CLIMATE OF WILDFIRES work with customers, industry and governments to: order for coverage to be triggered. For example, if one component in a supply chain is affected by Although the exact quantities are difficult to calculate, scientists estimate – Provide protection against the impact of weather, manufacturing processes can be that wildfires emitted about 8bn tons of CO2 per year into the atmosphere physical perils delayed. Therefore, an index can be established for the past 20 years. Those emissions account for approximately 5-10% of – Provide advice, and support representing a minimal basis risk relative to actual annual global CO2 emissions each year, according to the International mitigation, resilience and adaptation solutions business performance. “In terms of loss solutions,” Energy Agency. These calculations don’t include all wildfire emissions as net – Maintain insurability, sustaining the real Berlage says, “parametric has the advantage,” due emissions, because some of the CO2 is offset by renewed forest growth in the economy by planning ahead with governments, to transparency and the speed of payouts. burned areas. industry and society – Remain resilient, to continue supporting Berlage further states that customers don’t need However, extreme fires can release huge amounts of CO2 in a very short our customers to choose between indemnity and parametric time. California fire experts estimate that the blazes that devastated – Provide long-term investment, including custom solutions, as the two easily can be Northern California’s wine country in October 2017 emitted as much CO2 in existing efforts to support greener technologies combined for full coverage14. one week as all of California’s and trucks did over the course of a year. and transition activities – Support understanding of the financial and Source: Inside Climate News, How Wildfires Can Affect Climate Change (and Vice Versa) strategic risks of climate change through research and disclosure

Satellite view of wildfires in Paradise, California. 12 Environment Programme, The effect of wildfires on sustainable development, January 23, 2020 13 Allianz, Our Contribution to the Sustainable Development Goals, October 16, 2019 Source: elRoce / Shutterstock.com 14 GreenBiz, How Marsh and McLennan, Allianz and other insurers are responding to climate change risks, February 12, 2019

10 11 FUTURE FIRES: WEATHERING THE FIRE STORM ALLIANZ ASSISTS BUSHFIRE VICTIMS

In 2019, Allianz, in partnership with the Australian Red Cross, established an employee Bushfire Appeal, where every dollar donated by its staff was matched BEST RISK MANAGEMENT by Allianz to help provide psychological first aid and assist evacuees contacting families and friends. The initiative raised a total of more than $100,000 for the Red Cross Disaster Relief & Recovery Fund, after Allianz matched more than $50,000 AND CLAIMS PRACTICES dollars donated by staff. Allianz deployed additional resources, including dedicated priority phone lines, on-the-ground assessment and claims teams, temporary accommodation, and fast-tracked emergency payments. Allianz also An insurance claim is the defining moment of The brigades coordinate closely with local incident helped to recover policy details lost in the fires and provided 24/7 claims support.15 service – the moment when a promise is delivered. command centers and operate within active fire At AGCS, we deliver superior wildfire claims service zones, as requested by insurers and other to our customers: before, during and after a loss. A interested parties. Eight AGCS clients with coordinated approach to claims management is significant exposure, and in close proximity to the OUR CLAIMS PROFESSIONALS ALLIANZ CATASTROPHE the key to prompt and direct action. Immediate forecast fire path, were identified. CFPI patrolled FOLLOW THESE BEST PRACTICES COORDINATION TEAM and efficient claims services and handling is how the locations and took precautionary measures we help our clients remain resilient and resume such as clearing brush, relocating flammable Initial Contact: When a CAT occurs, the Allianz Catastrophe operations. Our dedicated and respected team of materials away from combustible construction, – Make immediate phone contact Coordination Team is immediately engaged. The experts lead clients to better prepare and are also and spraying buildings/foliage with – Discuss coverage thoroughly and provide CAT team monitors changes daily, invokes there to provide prompt evaluation and resolution biodegradable fire-fighting foam as warranted. opportunity for additional questions as they occur identification of the CAT to ensure all claims are of losses as they occur. – Discuss how the claim process works in detail routed and handled with utmost priority. A “We are pleased to support communities – Provide all means of contact information communication process is immediately put in One novel application of that is struggling to mitigate extreme catastrophes like and be accessible place that identifies all of our broker/clients in fire ready and in use today, is an environmentally safe wildfires,” says Scott Steinmetz, Regional Head of – Advise who else may be assisting to investigate/ areas. The team then works closely with clients at biodegradable fire-fighting foam used for MidCorp ARC, AGCS. He explains that innovative evaluate their claim (fire investigators, the onset of a fire to make sure they take needed pretreatment and suppression around property approaches and services such as CFPI’s represent consultants, contents specialists, forensic steps to prepare. Since many insureds may not and building perimeters. When fire is imminent, a part of the new frontier in predictive and accountants, etc.) have their policy readily available at a time such foam is applied from private fire trucks appointed proactive mitigation responses and that the – Discuss immediate needs/concerns and as this, the team maintains communication during with state-of-the-art equipment. AGCS supported insurance industry should be at the center of the agree on plan to address and after the event to assist with the claim businesses concentrated near the Mendocino dialogue as such capabilities emerge. reporting process. Complex and Woolsey Fires in 2018 and decided Initial Inspection/Meeting: conditions within these areas warranted protective – If access to the area (or risk location) will not be solutions against exposure. AGCS worked with possible for an extended period of time, consider Consumer Fire Products, Inc. (CFPI), an expertly opportunities to meet at alternative location(s) trained brigade of fire professionals dedicated to – Arrange to meet as soon as accessible and safe wildfire property protection, to evaluate exposed – Review coverage and loss adjustment process locations, assess fire threat and prioritize again in detail deployment of resources. – Develop scope of work for building and contents – Obtain financial information/documentation – Develop potential loss exposure – Discuss next steps and action plan

“I suffered a total loss to my dwelling. Advance payments were promptly issued, Continued Handling: and we reached a creative solution for additional living expenses. The contents – Frequent follow up – Be accessible claim was fully evaluated within 10 days of our submitting the list of contents, – Manage expectations and do what you say you and we will have fully resolved the dwelling within 6 months of the loss. I could will do in the time agreed upon – Manage consultants and their deliverables never have imagined that any insurance company would be as compassionate, – Be proactive, not reactive to needs; for example, honorable, prompt and easy to work with as AGCS. From my experience I can stay current on business interruption advance payments to eliminate cash flow worries attest that they live up to their ‘no surprise’ culture by working to deal with – Issue undisputed amounts of loss quickly claims in a fair, fast and effective manner.” – Maintain a good working relationship – Keep all parties informed throughout the process Wildland firefighters at Cabrillo Fire in San Mateo County, California. Mark Kramer Source: Jaden Schaul / Shutterstock.com Managing Director, FSG and Senior Lecturer, Harvard Business School

15 Insurance Business Australia, Allianz “ready to respond” to bushfire victims, January 8, 2020 12 13 FUTURE FIRES: WEATHERING THE FIRE STORM SEVEN STEPS TO PREPARE FOR A WILDFIRE MODELLING Wildfires are a rapidly growing challenge – and Reinsurance and risk modeling experts have businesses need better tools to manage this risk. begun using terms such as “megafires” and “the We know that predicting wildfire-related risk new abnormal” as they have identified several requires understanding more than just fire history, contributing trends of interest: frequency and severity. We utilize solutions that Create defensible Reduce Use noncombustible Consider the Consider the Cover the roof with Inspect vents and are scientifically supported and peer-reviewed to – Increase in property development in and space organic fuel materials for exterior walls windows noncombustible clear fuel from roofs provide powerful insights into wildfire mitigation, adjacent to Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) areas building signage material monitoring, reporting and response. – Increase in fuel loads on the ground, including dead standing trees due to drought and insect 1. Create defensible space 2. Reduce organic fuel We approach wildfire modeling from a loss- infestation, along with a decrease in fuel moisture Defensible space is both horizontal and vertical (low lying Create a Maintenance Plan (VMP) to reduce prevention perspective: content as a result of prolonged arid conditions brush to bushes to low lying tree canopies to large tree ignition sources. If using plants around the building, select – Increase in weather volatility from year to year, canopies). The key is to disrupt continuity in the vertical ones with low combustibility characteristics such as high – Fire frequency, history and severity: Quantifies including several years of drought interspersed dimension. Your property should be divided into three zones moisture content, low oil or resin content, deep roots with how often and how severe wildfires are with a few very wet , as well as longer dry around your building. thick heavy leaves, and minimal production of dead expected to be, based on the history of a seasons extending later in the year when • Zone 1: 0 to 5 feet from the exterior wall of your building vegetation. When developing a VMP, consult a landscape specific location intense seasonal wind patterns are most likely This zone is closest to your facility, so it requires the most professional such as a forester, range manager, or natural –  loss and smoke damage: Scores the risk to spread fires careful selection and intensive management of plants and resource specialist. of a fire breaking containment via drifting – Changes in fire behavior, with rapid expansion materials. and the projected path of those embers becoming more explosive in terms of quickness – Install hard surfaces in this zone, such as a concrete 3. Use noncombustible materials for – Structure-to-structure ignition: Considers the and distance, due to a confluence of extreme walkway, or use noncombustible mulch products, such building signage proximity of houses and structures in each zone conditions including high temperatures, low as rock mulch. and the projected risk of fire jumping from humidity, strong winds, high fuel loads – Regularly water lawns and plantings to prevent Avoid materials such as , and vinyl as they will structure to structure (vegetation and structures), and steep, hilly dry vegetation. act as fuel to further the spread of fire. – Urban : Uses fire shed analysis terrain; fires have consumed up to 70,000 acres – Remove dead plant material from plants. incorporating the risk of a wildfire’s transition a day and traveled over 15 miles in a few hours, – Remove plants adjacent to combustible siding and 4. Consider the exterior walls into urban areas, including structure-to-structure with embers blown across multilane highways foundation vents, as well as plants under or next to Select exterior wall cladding made of noncombustible siding loss, ember scoring and accumulated risk into developed areas within city limits windows, under-eave vents or interior corners. materials such as concrete and brick. Ensure the start of – Correlated risk zones: Uses interactive maps to – Multiple fires have erupted at the same time • Zone 2: 5 to 30 feet from your building, or to the property line siding is a minimum of 6 inches above the ground. correlate and understand risk of single fire and often in close proximity, stretching the Maintaining plants in this zone will help prevent fire from events in specific areas availability of fire-fighting resources and their climbing (laddering) into the top portion of trees or shrubs 5. Consider the windows capability for aerial drops of retardants due to and burning directly to your facility. Select windows that are dual-paned with tempered glass. massive smoke plumes which reduce visibility – Maintain trees and shrubs in well-spaced groupings. For operational windows, install screens to cover sections – Remove dead plant material and lower tree branches. that can open. Windows should be closed when wildfire – Maintain trees by keeping a minimum horizontal spacing threatens. of 10 feet between crowns, with the distance increasing Airplane drops fire retardant on wildfire. with increasing slope. Source: ShutterLibrary / Shutterstock.com 6. Cover the roof with noncombustible material – Prune limbs and branches to a height of up to 15 feet. Select roof covers with a Class A fire rating based on testing For shorter trees, pruning should not exceed 1/3 of the to ASTM E108 or UL 790. Class A fire rating means that the tree height. building material is highly resistant to fire and does not • Zone 3: 30 to 100 feet from your building, or to the spread quickly. Select gutters and downspouts made property line of noncombustible materials such as aluminum. Maintaining plants in this zone will help reduce the energy of wildfire, slowing its advance to your building. Tree and 7. Inspect vents and clear fuel from roofs brush spacing should force any fire in the tops of the trees, Install a minimum of 1/16” and maximum of 1/8” brush, or shrubs to drop to the ground. noncombustible mesh screening over all vents to prohibit – Remove dead plant material and tree branches from wind-blown embers from entering your building (1/4” mesh is vegetation on a regular maintenance schedule. ineffective, according to California Chapter – Create islands or groupings of vegetation. 7A). Regularly remove debris from roof and gutters, since it – Remove lower tree branches. can easily be ignited by wind-blown embers. – Maintain trees with a minimum horizontal spacing of 10 feet between crown edges.

14 15 FUTURE FIRES: WEATHERING THE FIRE STORM NORTH AMERICAN SEASONAL FIRE ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOK

June July August

Hawaii Puerto Rico Hawaii Puerto Rico Hawaii Puerto Rico

Fire Assessment Monthly fire outlook for North America for June 2020 Wildfire in Montana. Below Normal (left), July 2020 (middle), and August 2020 (right). Red Source: Tyler Pfiffner / Shutterstock.com Normal shading indicates areas where conditions would favor increased fire activity. Green shading indicates areas Above Normal where conditions would favor decreased fire activity.

Source: North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook, Outlook Period June, July, and August 2020

COVID-19: “Speaking across the board, this is a game changer with COVID-19,” said Mike Mohler, UNPRECEDENTED CHALLENGES FOR FIREFIGHTERS spokesman for the California Department of LOOKING FORWARD Forestry and Fire Protection. “It’s going to have to be an ‘everybody’s hands on deck’ approach to AGCS is increasingly making use of modern technology to better For firefighters – already engaged in one of the wildfires and additional trailers to accommodate this.” Mohler said his biggest concern is firefighters aid risk assessment and response when it comes to weather world’s riskiest occupations – the 2020 fire season showers and other hygiene needs contracting COVID-19 and silently spreading it related events – forest fires, hurricanes, or . presents new challenges related to COVID-19. The – scrap catering tents for firefighters in favor of among fellow firefighters, knocking them out of We have the people, insight, and tools to manage risks and pandemic has raised the stakes at the worst military-issue MREs, or “Meals Ready to Eat” to service, or even spreading it among the public.16 opportunities. We continue to protect our customers, develop our possible time, forest managers say, and is forcing reduce contact with serving utensils Already, the coronavirus has reduced the number people and engage in the community. firefighters, officials, and communities to rethink – limit fire engines to a driver and one passenger, of overall firefighters available in California. how they combat blazes. One such consideration requiring other crew members to ride in And as the world copes with COVID-19, we are adapting daily, is firefighters moving from blaze to blaze in additional vehicles Adding to these concerns, the National Oceanic keeping our clients and business partners fully informed as we camping groups while not on the front lines. This – offer paid sick leave to encourage crew and Atmospheric Association’s most recent three- respond to latest developments. Our priorities are clear: to do previous practice is now considered a dangerous members to take sick leave when needed month drought outlook has drought conditions our utmost to secure the wellbeing of our colleagues, clients and incubator for COVID-19. Also, the combination of – prepare water-dropping helicopters to deploy across large swathes of California, Oregon, business partners by responding to the outbreak through smoke inhalation and the novel coronavirus day and night throughout the Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and appropriate precautions, while we continue to run our business complications greatly expand respiratory risks for – inspect wildfire-vulnerable homes to ensure fire Colorado persisting to the end of June.17 Scott and serve our clients. first responders. defensible space is available McLean, a spokesman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, said For more information on our coronavirus response, Almost every aspect of preparing for and fighting The continued spread of the coronavirus, as well the agency is following strict physical distancing please visit our website. wildfires will have to change. Several states are as the economic paralysis that has accompanied protocols, but there is no agency-wide guidance working to: health restrictions, has impacted every aspect of beyond the recommendations every American has wildland firefighting. With fires beginning earlier in already been given for the pandemic.18 – turn training sessions and emergency the and persisting later into the fall, shelters into no-contact zones communities may have to contend with the dual

– scale back preventative controlled risk of COVID-19 and wildfire for several months. 16 The Los Angeles Times, California faces a perilous fire season as coronavirus threatens firefighters, May 10, 2020 – plan for larger firefighting campsites near 17 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, April 16, 2020 18 Time, The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Impact Approaches to Fighting Wildfires, April 15, 2020 16 17 CONTACTS

SCOTT STEINMETZ BERNARD MCNULTY Regional Head of MidCorp Risk Consulting Head of Claims, Canada [email protected] [email protected] O +1 415 899 4095 O +1 416 849 4164

DAVID COHEN Executive Business Analyst [email protected] O +1 415 899 4348

STEVEN KENNEDY VP Property Claims [email protected] O +1 312 224 3322

For more information contact: PAUL BLANCHARD [email protected] Executive General Adjuster [email protected] Follow AGCS on O +1 559 439 5434

Twitter @AGCS_Insurance and SAMMIE BULLOCK Director – Large Loss Property Claims LinkedIn [email protected] O +1 704 603 8263 www.agcs.allianz.com CHUCK COUCH Regional Head of Aviation Programs & Product Development - North America [email protected] O 678 393 4019 C 404 310 9045

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