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광저우자동차 GAC (2238 HK) Trading Buy (신규) 스마트한 성장 전략 목표가: HKD 8.5 상승여력: 18.5%

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광저우자동차 GAC (2238 HK) Trading Buy (신규) 스마트한 성장 전략 목표가: HKD 8.5 상승여력: 18.5% [중국] 글로벌 자동차 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 GAC (2238 HK) Trading Buy (신규) 스마트한 성장 전략 목표가: HKD 8.5 상승여력: 18.5% 진현우 [email protected] 밸류에이션 투자의견 Trading Buy, 목표주가 HKD 8.5, 커버리지 개시 ROE 개선: 2020E: 8.1% → 2021E: 9.3% → 2022E: 10.3% 최근 1년 평균 P/B 0.9x 적용(최근 5년 평균의 -1STD) 1) 자체브랜드 내연기관/EV 실적 개선, 2) 도요타, 혼다 합작법인 실적 개선 투자포인트 Mass EV 시장 내 자체브랜드 경쟁력 합작 판매를 통해 현금 축적, 자체 보유 브랜드 EV 경쟁력에 효과적으로 투자하는 기업 EV 중심 산업 재편에 따라 upper-mass 시장의 대표 기업으로 성장 전망 BEV M/S 확대: 2018: 2% → 1H20: 8% → 2022E: 10% 신차 효과: 6월 출시한 ‘Aion V’(소형 SUV), 4Q19 출시한 ‘LX’(대형 SUV) 판매 본격화 NIO와의 합작 브랜드 ‘HYCAN’ 신차 출시 도요타, 혼다 JV 실적 성장 지분법이익 증가: 2020-22E JV 판매량 연평균 8% 증가, 2% 내외의 ASP 상승 전망 높은 가동률, 생산능력 확대: 도요타 Capa. `19: 60만대(가동률 139%)→`22E: 100만대 시장점유율 확대 지속 전망: 2019: 8.0% → 2020E: 8.5% → 2022E: 9.1% 도요타&혼다 판매증가량은 자체브랜드 판매감소량 상쇄, 시장점유율 추가 가능한 규모 Risks 1) 높은 합작 판매 의존도, 2) 예상보다 빠른 자체브랜드 판매량 감소, 느린 마진 개선 Key data 250 GAC HIS Index 현재주가 (20/08/20, HKD) 7.17 시가총액 (십억HKD) 105.6 200 거래소 Hong Kong 시가총액 (조원) 16.2 EPS 성장률 (21F,%) 22.3 유통주식수 (백만주) 3,096.8 150 P/E (21F,x) 8.0 52주 최저가 (USD) 5.51 100 MKT P/E (21F,x) 9.9 52주 최고가 (USD) 10.14 50 배당수익률 (%) 3.1 0 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.7 20.1 20.7 Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics 주가상승률(%) 1개월 6개월 12개월 결산기 (12월) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F 12/22F 절대주가 17.0 -21.6 -6.4 매출액 (백만CNY) 71,574.9 72,380.0 59,704.3 58,755.1 65,422.5 73,863.4 상대주가 18.2 -12.6 -1.0 영업이익 (백만CNY) 5,548.6 2,595.5 -2,886.9 -1,703.9 -915.9 73.9 영업이익률 (%) 7.8 3.6 -4.8 -2.9 -1.4 0.1 지배주주순이익 (백만CNY) 11,004.7 10,902.6 6,616.3 6,829.8 8,349.6 9,838.8 EPS (CNY) 1.17 1.05 0.64 0.66 0.80 0.94 ROE (%) 15.9 14.2 8.3 8.1 9.3 10.3 P/E (배) 9.2 6.4 13.3 9.8 8.0 6.8 P/B (배) 1.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 자료: 광저우자동차, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 I. 투자포인트 1. Mass EV 시장 내 자체브랜드 경쟁력 광저우자동차의 장기 경쟁력은 자체 보유 EV 브랜드에 있다. 이미 광저우자동차는 mass(저가) EV 시장에서 두각을 나타내고 있다. BEV 시장점유율은 2018년 2%에서 1H20 8%까지 상승했다. 일 본 브랜드와의 합작 판매를 통해 현금을 축적하고, 이를 자체 보유 브랜드 EV 경쟁력에 효과적으 로 투자한 덕분이다. EV 세단 ‘Aion S’는 1H20 기준 단일모델 판매량 3위를 기록했다(1.8만대). 그림 1. 합작 판매를 통해 축적한 현금 → EV 자체브랜드에 투자 주1: 내연기관차(ICE) 시장규모 추정은 11개 상장기업(전체 판매량의 98% 차지)의 매출 기반, EV의 ASP는 내연기관의 185%로 가정 주2: mass EV, premium EV 추정 시장규모는 모델별 판매량x평균MSRP(보조금 전)로 계산 주3: 외자 합작브랜드 판매 포함 자료: Markline, Bloomberg, 각 사, 언론 종합, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 표 1. BEV 모델별 판매량 Top 10 (대) 1H20 순위 제조사 세그먼트 모델명 판매량 2019 순위 제조사 세그먼트 모델명 판매량 1 Tesla Sedan Model 3 47,078 1 BAIC Sedan Senova D50 80,879 2 BYD Sedan Qin Pro 21,231 2 BYD SUV-B Yuan 61,900 3 GAC Sedan AionS 18,161 3 GM Sedan Baojun E100 60,050 4 NIO SUV NIO ES6 12,120 4 Chery Sedan eQ1 39,401 5 GM Sedan Baojun E100 10,801 5 Tesla Sedan Model 3 33,873 6 Chery Sedan eQ1 9,788 6 GAC Sedan AionS 31,929 7 BAIC Sedan Senova D50 9,415 7 SAIC Sedan Roewe Ei5 30,550 8 Great Wall Sedan ORA R1 9,372 8 BYD Sedan BYD E5 29,311 9 BYD SUV Yuan 8,758 9 Great Wall Sedan ORA R1 28,498 10 BYD Sedan e2 6,848 10 Geely Sedan Emgrand 28,450 자료: Markline, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 76 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 Upper-mass EV 대표 기업으로 성장할 전망 지난 6월, 광저우자동차는 EV 소형 SUV ‘Aion V’를 출시했다. 2H20-2021년은 신차 ‘V’와 대형 SUV ‘LX’(4Q19 출시)의 판매량 증가가 본격화할 전망이다. 로컬 프리미엄 EV 제조사 NIO와의 합작브랜드 ‘HYCAN’ 판매 증가도 기대된다. 광저우자동차는 mass 모델에, NIO는 프리미엄 모델 에 각각 강점을 가진 대표 로컬기업이다. 광저우자동차의 BEV 판매량은 올해 5.5만대(+38% YoY), 내년 11만대(+95% YoY)까지 늘어날 전망이다(점유율: 2020E 8%, 2025E 12%). EV 중심의 산업 재편에 따라 upper-mass 시장에서 두각을 나타내는 기업으로 성장할 전망이다. 그림 2. GAC – BEV 판매량 및 시장점유율 전망 ('000 units) BEV sales (L) BEV M/S (R) 700,000 14% 600,000 12% 500,000 10% 400,000 8% 300,000 6% 200,000 4% 100,000 2% 0 0% 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 자료: 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 그림 3. GAC – BEV 모델별 판매량 전망 ('000 units) 250 Aion S (Sedan) Aion LX (SUV-D) Aion V (SUV-C) HYCAN 007 (SUV-C) new model 1 new model 2 200 150 100 50 0 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 자료: Markline, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 77 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 그림 4. ‘Aion V’ (20년 6월 출시) –약 16만위안(2천7백만원) 부터 자료: GAC, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 표 2. GAC – Aion V 경쟁 모델 Manufacturer GAC Geely Xpeng WM Model name Aion V Geometry C G3 EX5 Price (after incentive, CNY) 159,600~239,600 139,800~ 135,800~ 139,800~189,800 Long/wide/tall/wheelbase (mm) 4,585 / 1,920 / 1,728 / 2,830 4,432 / 1,833 / 1,560 / 2,700 4,450 / 1,820 / 1,610 / 2,625 4,585 / 1,835 / 1,672 / 2,703 Max power/torque 135kW / 350Nm 150kW / 310Nm 145kW / 300Nm 160kW / 315Nm Top speed 175km/h 150km/h 170km/h 160km/h Battery capacity 70, 80kWh 51.9, 61.9kWh 66.5kWh 52.5, 69kWh Driving range (NEDC) 400km, 600km 400km, 550km 520km 400km, 520km *km/kWh calculation 5.7~7.5 7.7~8.1 7.8 7.5~7.6 자료: 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 그림 5. BEV 시장점유율 변화 – 브랜드별 BYD GAC BAIC SAIC Chery Great Wall Changan Geely DF FAW 20% 18% 17% 17% 16% 12% 8% 7% 8% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2019 1H20 자료: Markline, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 78 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 표 3. GAC-NIO’s HYCAN 007 (20년 5월 출시) Manufacturer GAC-NIO's JV (HYCAN) Model name HYCAN 007 Launch May-20 Price (after incentive, CNY) 262,600~400,000 Long/wide/tall/wheelbase (mm) 4,879 / 1,937 / 1,680 / 2,919 Top speed 170km/h Battery capacity 73kWh / 93kWh Driving range (NEDC) 523km / 643km km/kWh 6.9~7.2 자료: GAC, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 그림 6. HYCAN 007 – interior design 자료: GAC, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 79 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 걱정거리였던 Trumpchi (자체브랜드) 실적 회복 자체 보유 브랜드인 Trumpchi 판매량의 점진적 회복이 예상된다. 2019년 시장의 수축과 신모델 부재로 인해 Trumpchi 판매량은 -28% YoY를 기록했다. 그러나, 올해 말 또는 내년부터 신차가 추가되고 시장이 점진적으로 회복하면서 한 자릿수의 연간 판매량 성장률을 기록할 전망이다. GPM 회복도 예상된다. 2019년은 판매량 및 ASP 하락, 재고처분(destocking), 신공장 투자로 인 한 감가상각비 급증(+46% YoY) 등으로 인해 GPM이 크게 훼손됐다(-15%p YoY). 그러나, 일회 성 요인이 제거되고 판매량 및 ASP 회복이 진행되면서 점차 수익성을 회복 해나갈 전망이다. 그림 7. Trumpchi 판매량 및 GPM 전망 ('000 units) Trumpchi - sold units (L) GPM (R) 600 25% 500 20% 400 15% 300 10% 200 5% 100 0 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 자료: Bloomberg, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 그림 8. Trumpchi GS4 – 최다 판매모델 (1H20 Trumpchi 총 판매량의 41% 차지) 자료: GAC, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 80 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 2. 도요타, 혼다 JV 실적 성장 광저우-도요타, 광저우-혼다의 판매량 상승세가 가파르다. 120~140%의 높은 가동률과 생산능력 확대에 힘입어 두 브랜드 차량의 판매량 증가세가 지속될 전망이다. 2019년 광저우-도요타의 생산 능력은 연간 60만대, 가동률 139%를 기록했으며 2022년까지 생산능력을 100만대로 확대할 계 획이다. 광저우-혼다의 경우는 가동률 119%, 현재 생산능력 77만대 규모다. 올해 광저우자동차 전체 판매량 중 두 브랜드의 비중은 약 80%까지 확대될 전망이다(2019년: 71%). 판매량은 전년대비 약 5% 증가할 것으로 예상된다(154만대). 두 브랜드의 판매 증가량은 자체브랜드 Trumpchi 판매량 감소를 충분히 상쇄하고, 시장점유율 추가 획득이 가능한 규모다. 광저우자동차의 전체시장점유율은 연간 0.3%p 이상씩 꾸준히 상승할 것으로 예상된다. 그림 9. GAC –시장점유율 및 총 판매량 전망 (mn units) Vehicle sales (L) M/S (R) 2.5 9.1% 10% 8.8% 8.5% 8.0% 2.0 8% 7.7% 6.8% 1.5 5.2% 6% 4.8% 5.8% 1.0 4% 0.5 2% 0.0 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 자료: Markline, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 그림 10. 판매량 전망 – 브랜드별 그림 11. 판매 비중 전망 – 브랜드별 ('000 units) Honda Toyota Honda Toyota GAC Trumpchi Mitsubishi FCA HYCAN 1,000 GAC Trumpchi Mitsubishi FCA HYCAN (GAC-NIO) 100% 18% 17% 17% 800 80% 19% 25% 26% 600 60% 38% 40% 40% 33% 22% 27% 400 40% 200 20% 36% 35% 38% 40% 39% 39% 0 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 자료: Markline, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 자료: Markline, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 81 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 캐시 카우: 지분법 이익 증가 혼다, 도요타 등과의 JV를 통한 지분법 이익이 광저우자동차의 순이익 대부분을 차지한다.
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