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광저우자동차 GAC (2238 HK) Trading Buy (신규) 스마트한 성장 전략 목표가: HKD 8.5 상승여력: 18.5%

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[중국] 글로벌 자동차 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 GAC (2238 HK) Trading Buy (신규) 스마트한 성장 전략 목표가: HKD 8.5 상승여력: 18.5% 진현우 [email protected] 밸류에이션 투자의견 Trading Buy, 목표주가 HKD 8.5, 커버리지 개시 ROE 개선: 2020E: 8.1% → 2021E: 9.3% → 2022E: 10.3% 최근 1년 평균 P/B 0.9x 적용(최근 5년 평균의 -1STD) 1) 자체브랜드 내연기관/EV 실적 개선, 2) 도요타, 혼다 합작법인 실적 개선 투자포인트 Mass EV 시장 내 자체브랜드 경쟁력 합작 판매를 통해 현금 축적, 자체 보유 브랜드 EV 경쟁력에 효과적으로 투자하는 기업 EV 중심 산업 재편에 따라 upper-mass 시장의 대표 기업으로 성장 전망 BEV M/S 확대: 2018: 2% → 1H20: 8% → 2022E: 10% 신차 효과: 6월 출시한 ‘Aion V’(소형 SUV), 4Q19 출시한 ‘LX’(대형 SUV) 판매 본격화 NIO와의 합작 브랜드 ‘HYCAN’ 신차 출시 도요타, 혼다 JV 실적 성장 지분법이익 증가: 2020-22E JV 판매량 연평균 8% 증가, 2% 내외의 ASP 상승 전망 높은 가동률, 생산능력 확대: 도요타 Capa. `19: 60만대(가동률 139%)→`22E: 100만대 시장점유율 확대 지속 전망: 2019: 8.0% → 2020E: 8.5% → 2022E: 9.1% 도요타&혼다 판매증가량은 자체브랜드 판매감소량 상쇄, 시장점유율 추가 가능한 규모 Risks 1) 높은 합작 판매 의존도, 2) 예상보다 빠른 자체브랜드 판매량 감소, 느린 마진 개선 Key data 250 GAC HIS Index 현재주가 (20/08/20, HKD) 7.17 시가총액 (십억HKD) 105.6 200 거래소 Hong Kong 시가총액 (조원) 16.2 EPS 성장률 (21F,%) 22.3 유통주식수 (백만주) 3,096.8 150 P/E (21F,x) 8.0 52주 최저가 (USD) 5.51 100 MKT P/E (21F,x) 9.9 52주 최고가 (USD) 10.14 50 배당수익률 (%) 3.1 0 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.7 20.1 20.7 Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics 주가상승률(%) 1개월 6개월 12개월 결산기 (12월) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F 12/22F 절대주가 17.0 -21.6 -6.4 매출액 (백만CNY) 71,574.9 72,380.0 59,704.3 58,755.1 65,422.5 73,863.4 상대주가 18.2 -12.6 -1.0 영업이익 (백만CNY) 5,548.6 2,595.5 -2,886.9 -1,703.9 -915.9 73.9 영업이익률 (%) 7.8 3.6 -4.8 -2.9 -1.4 0.1 지배주주순이익 (백만CNY) 11,004.7 10,902.6 6,616.3 6,829.8 8,349.6 9,838.8 EPS (CNY) 1.17 1.05 0.64 0.66 0.80 0.94 ROE (%) 15.9 14.2 8.3 8.1 9.3 10.3 P/E (배) 9.2 6.4 13.3 9.8 8.0 6.8 P/B (배) 1.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 자료: 광저우자동차, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 I. 투자포인트 1. Mass EV 시장 내 자체브랜드 경쟁력 광저우자동차의 장기 경쟁력은 자체 보유 EV 브랜드에 있다. 이미 광저우자동차는 mass(저가) EV 시장에서 두각을 나타내고 있다. BEV 시장점유율은 2018년 2%에서 1H20 8%까지 상승했다. 일 본 브랜드와의 합작 판매를 통해 현금을 축적하고, 이를 자체 보유 브랜드 EV 경쟁력에 효과적으 로 투자한 덕분이다. EV 세단 ‘Aion S’는 1H20 기준 단일모델 판매량 3위를 기록했다(1.8만대). 그림 1. 합작 판매를 통해 축적한 현금 → EV 자체브랜드에 투자 주1: 내연기관차(ICE) 시장규모 추정은 11개 상장기업(전체 판매량의 98% 차지)의 매출 기반, EV의 ASP는 내연기관의 185%로 가정 주2: mass EV, premium EV 추정 시장규모는 모델별 판매량x평균MSRP(보조금 전)로 계산 주3: 외자 합작브랜드 판매 포함 자료: Markline, Bloomberg, 각 사, 언론 종합, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 표 1. BEV 모델별 판매량 Top 10 (대) 1H20 순위 제조사 세그먼트 모델명 판매량 2019 순위 제조사 세그먼트 모델명 판매량 1 Tesla Sedan Model 3 47,078 1 BAIC Sedan Senova D50 80,879 2 BYD Sedan Qin Pro 21,231 2 BYD SUV-B Yuan 61,900 3 GAC Sedan AionS 18,161 3 GM Sedan Baojun E100 60,050 4 NIO SUV NIO ES6 12,120 4 Chery Sedan eQ1 39,401 5 GM Sedan Baojun E100 10,801 5 Tesla Sedan Model 3 33,873 6 Chery Sedan eQ1 9,788 6 GAC Sedan AionS 31,929 7 BAIC Sedan Senova D50 9,415 7 SAIC Sedan Roewe Ei5 30,550 8 Great Wall Sedan ORA R1 9,372 8 BYD Sedan BYD E5 29,311 9 BYD SUV Yuan 8,758 9 Great Wall Sedan ORA R1 28,498 10 BYD Sedan e2 6,848 10 Geely Sedan Emgrand 28,450 자료: Markline, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 76 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 Upper-mass EV 대표 기업으로 성장할 전망 지난 6월, 광저우자동차는 EV 소형 SUV ‘Aion V’를 출시했다. 2H20-2021년은 신차 ‘V’와 대형 SUV ‘LX’(4Q19 출시)의 판매량 증가가 본격화할 전망이다. 로컬 프리미엄 EV 제조사 NIO와의 합작브랜드 ‘HYCAN’ 판매 증가도 기대된다. 광저우자동차는 mass 모델에, NIO는 프리미엄 모델 에 각각 강점을 가진 대표 로컬기업이다. 광저우자동차의 BEV 판매량은 올해 5.5만대(+38% YoY), 내년 11만대(+95% YoY)까지 늘어날 전망이다(점유율: 2020E 8%, 2025E 12%). EV 중심의 산업 재편에 따라 upper-mass 시장에서 두각을 나타내는 기업으로 성장할 전망이다. 그림 2. GAC – BEV 판매량 및 시장점유율 전망 ('000 units) BEV sales (L) BEV M/S (R) 700,000 14% 600,000 12% 500,000 10% 400,000 8% 300,000 6% 200,000 4% 100,000 2% 0 0% 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 자료: 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 그림 3. GAC – BEV 모델별 판매량 전망 ('000 units) 250 Aion S (Sedan) Aion LX (SUV-D) Aion V (SUV-C) HYCAN 007 (SUV-C) new model 1 new model 2 200 150 100 50 0 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 자료: Markline, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 77 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 그림 4. ‘Aion V’ (20년 6월 출시) –약 16만위안(2천7백만원) 부터 자료: GAC, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 표 2. GAC – Aion V 경쟁 모델 Manufacturer GAC Geely Xpeng WM Model name Aion V Geometry C G3 EX5 Price (after incentive, CNY) 159,600~239,600 139,800~ 135,800~ 139,800~189,800 Long/wide/tall/wheelbase (mm) 4,585 / 1,920 / 1,728 / 2,830 4,432 / 1,833 / 1,560 / 2,700 4,450 / 1,820 / 1,610 / 2,625 4,585 / 1,835 / 1,672 / 2,703 Max power/torque 135kW / 350Nm 150kW / 310Nm 145kW / 300Nm 160kW / 315Nm Top speed 175km/h 150km/h 170km/h 160km/h Battery capacity 70, 80kWh 51.9, 61.9kWh 66.5kWh 52.5, 69kWh Driving range (NEDC) 400km, 600km 400km, 550km 520km 400km, 520km *km/kWh calculation 5.7~7.5 7.7~8.1 7.8 7.5~7.6 자료: 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 그림 5. BEV 시장점유율 변화 – 브랜드별 BYD GAC BAIC SAIC Chery Great Wall Changan Geely DF FAW 20% 18% 17% 17% 16% 12% 8% 7% 8% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2019 1H20 자료: Markline, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 78 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 표 3. GAC-NIO’s HYCAN 007 (20년 5월 출시) Manufacturer GAC-NIO's JV (HYCAN) Model name HYCAN 007 Launch May-20 Price (after incentive, CNY) 262,600~400,000 Long/wide/tall/wheelbase (mm) 4,879 / 1,937 / 1,680 / 2,919 Top speed 170km/h Battery capacity 73kWh / 93kWh Driving range (NEDC) 523km / 643km km/kWh 6.9~7.2 자료: GAC, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 그림 6. HYCAN 007 – interior design 자료: GAC, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 79 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 걱정거리였던 Trumpchi (자체브랜드) 실적 회복 자체 보유 브랜드인 Trumpchi 판매량의 점진적 회복이 예상된다. 2019년 시장의 수축과 신모델 부재로 인해 Trumpchi 판매량은 -28% YoY를 기록했다. 그러나, 올해 말 또는 내년부터 신차가 추가되고 시장이 점진적으로 회복하면서 한 자릿수의 연간 판매량 성장률을 기록할 전망이다. GPM 회복도 예상된다. 2019년은 판매량 및 ASP 하락, 재고처분(destocking), 신공장 투자로 인 한 감가상각비 급증(+46% YoY) 등으로 인해 GPM이 크게 훼손됐다(-15%p YoY). 그러나, 일회 성 요인이 제거되고 판매량 및 ASP 회복이 진행되면서 점차 수익성을 회복 해나갈 전망이다. 그림 7. Trumpchi 판매량 및 GPM 전망 ('000 units) Trumpchi - sold units (L) GPM (R) 600 25% 500 20% 400 15% 300 10% 200 5% 100 0 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 자료: Bloomberg, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 그림 8. Trumpchi GS4 – 최다 판매모델 (1H20 Trumpchi 총 판매량의 41% 차지) 자료: GAC, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 80 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 2. 도요타, 혼다 JV 실적 성장 광저우-도요타, 광저우-혼다의 판매량 상승세가 가파르다. 120~140%의 높은 가동률과 생산능력 확대에 힘입어 두 브랜드 차량의 판매량 증가세가 지속될 전망이다. 2019년 광저우-도요타의 생산 능력은 연간 60만대, 가동률 139%를 기록했으며 2022년까지 생산능력을 100만대로 확대할 계 획이다. 광저우-혼다의 경우는 가동률 119%, 현재 생산능력 77만대 규모다. 올해 광저우자동차 전체 판매량 중 두 브랜드의 비중은 약 80%까지 확대될 전망이다(2019년: 71%). 판매량은 전년대비 약 5% 증가할 것으로 예상된다(154만대). 두 브랜드의 판매 증가량은 자체브랜드 Trumpchi 판매량 감소를 충분히 상쇄하고, 시장점유율 추가 획득이 가능한 규모다. 광저우자동차의 전체시장점유율은 연간 0.3%p 이상씩 꾸준히 상승할 것으로 예상된다. 그림 9. GAC –시장점유율 및 총 판매량 전망 (mn units) Vehicle sales (L) M/S (R) 2.5 9.1% 10% 8.8% 8.5% 8.0% 2.0 8% 7.7% 6.8% 1.5 5.2% 6% 4.8% 5.8% 1.0 4% 0.5 2% 0.0 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 자료: Markline, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 그림 10. 판매량 전망 – 브랜드별 그림 11. 판매 비중 전망 – 브랜드별 ('000 units) Honda Toyota Honda Toyota GAC Trumpchi Mitsubishi FCA HYCAN 1,000 GAC Trumpchi Mitsubishi FCA HYCAN (GAC-NIO) 100% 18% 17% 17% 800 80% 19% 25% 26% 600 60% 38% 40% 40% 33% 22% 27% 400 40% 200 20% 36% 35% 38% 40% 39% 39% 0 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 자료: Markline, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 자료: Markline, 미래에셋대우 리서치센터 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 81 2020.8.21 광저우자동차 캐시 카우: 지분법 이익 증가 혼다, 도요타 등과의 JV를 통한 지분법 이익이 광저우자동차의 순이익 대부분을 차지한다.
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    Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited take no responsibility for the contents of this announcement, make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and expressly disclaim any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this announcement. GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO., LTD. 廣州汽車集團股份有限公司 (a joint stock company incorporated in the People’s Republic of China with limited liability) (Stock Code: 2238) 2016 INTERIM RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT I. IMPORTANT NOTICE (I) The Board, the supervisory committee and the directors, supervisors and senior management of the Company warrant that the contents contained herein are true, accurate and complete. There are no false representations or misleading statements contained in or material omissions from this announcement, and they will jointly and severally accept responsibility. (II) All directors of the Company have attended the meetings of the Board. (III) The interim financial report of the Company is unaudited. The Audit Committee of the Company has reviewed the unaudited interim results of the Company for the six months ended 30 June 2016 and agreed to submit it to the Board for approval. (IV) Zhang Fangyou, the Chairman of the Company, Zeng Qinghong, the General Manager of the Company, Wang Dan, the person in charge of accounting function and Li Canhui, the manager of the accounting department (Chief of Accounting), warrant the truthfulness, accuracy and completeness of the financial report contained in this announcement. (V) The Board of the Company proposed payment of interim dividend of RMB0.8 (tax inclusive) in cash for every 10 shares to all shareholders.
  • KEY TOOL .Cdr

    KEY TOOL .Cdr

    NO. Brand Remote Type NO. Brand Remote Type NO. Brand Remote Type NO. Brand Remote Type 1 GQ43VT13T-315 215 After 2006 M6/2011 before M3 315 327 MG3 Wireless remote transponder 46 118 13 Sunny/Sylphy/Tiida radio w ave MG 2 GQ43VT13T-433 216 2006 before M6 315 328 MG5 Wireless remote transponder 46 119 Nissan VDO（Trunk w ith panic） 315 329 D50/R50 315 3 Chrysier Chrysier 300C 315 version 2 217 After 2011 M3/M6 433 120 Nissan VDO 315 330 Venucia R30 433 4 Chrysier 300C 315 218 11 M3/M6 classic folding 433 331 T70 315 5 Chrysier 300C 433 121 Nissan VDO 433 219 Mazda 41846 41805 313M 332 Saima （Mitsubishi system V73） 6 After 2012 Excelle 433 122 Nissan 433 220 41846_41805-TW 313M HF 333 Saibao/Saima/Lubao 315 7 GL8/CenturyGM2-3/Regal 315M 123 Yumsun/Oting 221 M5/M2 MITSUBISHI systems 315 334 15 E3 433 8 GL8 Nissan 124 New Sylphy folding 222 M5 433 335 9DW315 9 Excelle 315 223 M2 336 QQ 9AK 315 10 Buick Excelle 315.5 125 Trunk w ith panic 315 224 2008 before Jiefang 315 337 QQ 9CN 315 12 New Hummer H2/Enclave /GMC 126 P2700 225 2009 before Weile 315 338 QQ 9DW 433 13 Buick all models 127 P2700 226 After 2010 Jiefang 315 339 QQ 9EU 433 14 The Old Excelle 433 128 Bluebird 227 After 2013 Jiefang 315 340 A3/A5 w ith boot 315 15 First Land 341 A3/A5 w ithout boot 433 129 Tiida/Sunny/14 Sylphy 433 228 15 Jiefang J6 folding 315 16 11 Mondeo-Zhisheng/12-15 Focus/KUGA 433 342 A3/A5 w ithout boot 315 130 Subaru 315 229 FAW Xiali N5 Weizhi 315 （duplicable） 17 Focus/Mondeo/Fiesta 343 Chery A3/A5 w ith boot/Fengyun 2 433 230 Weizhi 315 18 Focus folding
  • Annual Report

    Annual Report

    ai158746681363_GAC AR2019 Cover_man 29.8mm.pdf 1 21/4/2020 下午7:00 Important Notice 1. The Board, supervisory committee and the directors, supervisors and senior management of the Company warrant the authenticity, accuracy and completeness of the information contained in the annual report and there are no misrepresentations, misleading statements contained in or material omissions from the annual report for which they shall assume joint and several responsibilities. 2. All directors of the Company have attended meeting of the Board. 3. PricewaterhouseCoopers issued an unqualified auditors’ report for the Company. 4. Zeng Qinghong, the person in charge of the Company, Feng Xingya, the general manager, Wang Dan, the person in charge of accounting function and Zheng Chao, the manager of the accounting department (Accounting Chief), represent that they warrant the truthfulness and completeness of the financial statements contained in this annual report. 5. The proposal for profit distribution or conversion of capital reserve into shares for the reporting period as considered by the Board The Board proposed payment of final cash dividend of RMB1.5 per 10 shares (tax inclusive). Together with the cash dividend of RMB0.5 per 10 shares (including tax) paid during the interim period, the ratio of total cash dividend payment for the year to net profit attributable to the shareholders’ equity of listed company for the year would be approximately 30.95%. 6. Risks relating to forward-looking statements The forward-looking statements contained in this annual report regarding the Company’s future plans and development strategies do not constitute any substantive commitment to investors and investors are reminded of investment risks.
  • 2020 Annual Results Announcement

    2020 Annual Results Announcement

    Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited take no responsibility for the contents of this announcement, make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and expressly disclaim any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this announcement. GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO., LTD. 廣 州 汽 車 集 團 股 份 有 限 公 司 (a joint stock company incorporated in the People’s Republic of China with limited liability) (Stock Code: 2238) 2020 ANNUAL RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT The Board is pleased to announce the audited consolidated results of the Group for the year ended 31 December 2020 together with the comparative figures of the corresponding period ended 31 December 2019. The result has been reviewed by the Audit Committee and the Board of the Company. - 1 - CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME Year ended 31 December Note 2020 2019 RMB’000 RMB’000 Revenue 3 63,156,985 59,704,322 Cost of sales (60,860,992) (57,181,363) Gross profit 2,295,993 2,522,959 Selling and distribution costs (3,641,480) (4,553,402) Administrative expenses (3,850,327) (3,589,516) Net impairment losses on financial assets (55,110) (53,831) Interest income 304,233 290,694 Other gains – net 4 1,379,690 2,620,340 Operating loss (3,567,001) (2,762,756) Interest income 127,551 171,565 Finance costs 5 (439,567) (516,481) Share of profit of joint ventures and associates 6 9,570,978 9,399,343 Profit before income tax 5,691,961 6,291,671 Income tax credit 7 355,990
  • China Autos Driving the EV Revolution

    China Autos Driving the EV Revolution

    Building on principles One-Asia Research | August 21, 2020 China Autos Driving the EV revolution Hyunwoo Jin [email protected] This publication was prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its non-U.S. affiliates (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”). Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation, or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Mirae Asset Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opin- ions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed, or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Please see important disclosures & disclaimers in Appendix 1 at the end of this report. August 21, 2020 China Autos CONTENTS Executive summary 3 I. Investment points 5 1. Geely: Strong in-house brands and rising competitiveness in EVs 5 2. BYD and NIO: EV focus 14 3. GAC: Strategic market positioning (mass EVs + premium imported cars) 26 Other industry issues 30 Global company analysis 31 Geely Automobile (175 HK/Buy) 32 BYD (1211 HK/Buy) 51 NIO (NIO US/Buy) 64 Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK/Trading Buy) 76 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 August 21, 2020 China Autos Executive summary The next decade will bring radical changes to the global automotive market.
  • Environmental, Social and Governance Report 02 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd

    Environmental, Social and Governance Report 02 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd

    2017 Environmental, Social and Governance Report 02 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. Notes on the Report This is the sixth annual social responsibility report released by Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. The board and all the directors of GAC undertake that the Report contains no false records, misleading representations or major omis- sions and will assume joint and several liabilities for its authenticity, accuracy and completeness. Scope of the Report: This report covers Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd., hereinafter referred to as “GAC Group”, “Group” or “we” as appropriate for ease of expression. The Report covers the time span from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2017, though part of the content exceeds the time span. Basis for Compilation: The report has been compiled in accordance with the national standards on social responsibility, including the Social Responsibility Guidelines (GB/T36000-2015), Social Responsibility Reporting Guidelines (GB/T36001-2015) and So- cial Responsibility Performance Classification Guidelines (GB/T36002-2015), as well as other relevant regulations, including the Notice of Shanghai Stock Exchange on Strengthening the Assumption of Social Responsibility by List- ed Companies and Issuing the Guidelines on the Disclosure of Environmental Information by Listed Companies, the Guidelines of Shanghai Stock Exchange for Compilation of Reports on the Performance of Social Responsibility by Companies and SEHK Environmental, Social and Governance Reporting Guide. The compilation of the report is also based on ISO Guidance on Social Responsibility (ISO26000), the Sustainable Development Reporting Guidelines of the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI 4.0) and AA1000 Assurance Standard (2008) as reference. Notes on Data: All the data used in this Report are from the statistical reports and other official documents of the Group.
  • Environmental, Social and Governance Report Notes on the Report

    Environmental, Social and Governance Report Notes on the Report

    Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. Environmental, Social and Governance Report Notes on the Report This is the eighth annual social responsibility report released by Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. The Board and all the directors of GAC undertake that the Report contains no false records, misleading representations or major omissions, and assume joint and several liabilities for the authenticity, accuracy and completeness. Scope of the Report: The Report covers Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd., hereinafter referred to as "GAC Group", "Group" or "we" as appropriate for ease of expression. The Report covers the period from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2019, though part of the content exceeds this period. Basis for Compilation: The Report has been compiled in accordance with national standards on social responsibility, including the Guidance on Social Responsibility (GB/T 36000-2015), Guidance on Social Responsibility Reporting (GB/T 36001-2015) and Guidance on Classifying Social Responsibility Performance (GB/T 36002-2015), as well as other relevant regulations including the Notice on Strengthening the Assumption of Social Responsibility by Listed Companies and Issuing the Guidelines on the Disclosure of Environmental Information by Listed Companies and the Guidelines on Compilation of Reports on the Performance of Social Responsibility by Companies issued by Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Environmental, Social and Governance Reporting Guide issued by The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, and with reference to the Guidance on Social Responsibility (ISO 26000), the Sustainable Development Reporting Guidelines of the Global Reporting Initiative and AA 1000 Assurance Standard (2008). Notes on Data: All the data used in the Report are from the statistical reports and other official documents of the Group.
  • Guangzhou Automobile 2238 HK Outperform Volume Growth Rate Peaked in 1H Price (At 09:22, 29 Jul 2016 GMT) HK$9.96

    Guangzhou Automobile 2238 HK Outperform Volume Growth Rate Peaked in 1H Price (At 09:22, 29 Jul 2016 GMT) HK$9.96

    HONG KONG Guangzhou Automobile 2238 HK Outperform Volume growth rate peaked in 1H Price (at 09:22, 29 Jul 2016 GMT) HK$9.96 Valuation HK$ 11.40 Event - PER 12-month target HK$ 11.40 . Guangzhou Auto (GAC) has achieved strong volume growth in 1H16, with unit Upside/Downside % +14.5 shipments up 31% YoY helped by the success of its own brand Trumpchi’s 12-month TSR % +18.3 GS4 SUV and the launch of Jeep production in China. We believe, however, Volatility Index Medium that this represents the peak for volume growth, which is likely to slow to 13% GICS sector Automobiles & in 2H on softer sales from the Honda JV and tougher comps for Trumpchi. Components Market cap HK$m 135,147 . The problem from a model mix perspective is that more of the growth is Market cap US$m 17,871 coming from low margin models, with growth from its higher margin JVs with Free float % 21 Honda and Toyota is more sluggish. As a result, we have lowered our 30-day avg turnover US$m 19.4 earnings estimates. We roll forward our PER to an average of 2016E and Number shares on issue m 13,569 2017E, based on a target PER of 9x as before, but we trim our target price to Investment fundamentals HK$11.40 from HK$11.50 on lower estimates. We maintain our Outperform Year end 31 Dec 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E rating but prefer other automakers on lower valuations (see Fig 25). Revenue m 29,418 44,242 46,959 51,525 EBIT m 387 2,528 2,866 3,063 Impact EBIT growth % nmf 553.4 13.4 6.9 Reported profit m 4,212 6,140 7,469 8,493 .