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Digitized by the Digitization and Microform Unit - UNOG Library UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT GENEVA TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT, 1994 Report by the secretariat of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development m UNITED NATIONS New York and Geneva, 1994 Note Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures. Mention of such a symbol indicates a reference to a United Nations document. The designations employed and the pres­ entation of the material in this publica­ tion do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations con­ cerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. • Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledge­ ment is requested, together with a refer­ ence to the document number. A copy of the publication containing the quota­ tion or reprint should be sent to the UNCTAD secretariat. UNCTAD/TDR/14 UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No.: E.94.II.D.26 ISBN 92-1-112360-7 ISSN 0255-4607 Trade and Development Report, 1994 Hi Contents Page Explanatory notes ix Abbreviations x OVERVIEW by the Secretary-General of UNCTAD l-XV Part One GLOBAL TRENDS Chapter I THE WORLD ECONOMY: PERFORMANCE AND PROSPECTS 3 A. Recent performance 3 1. Developed market-economy countries. 3 2. Developing countries and China 5 3. Central and Eastern Europe 7 B. Short-term outlook 8 C. Uncertainty in short-term forecasting 9 Chapter II RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE 13 A. Developed market-economy countries 13 B. Developing countries IS 1. Trade volumes and terms of trade 15 2. Recent developments in trade among developing countries 17 C. Central and Eastern Europe... 20 rv Page Chapter III INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE EXTERNAL DEBT OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 23 A. Recent trends in external Financing 23 B. Renegotiation and reduction of bank debt 28 C. Continuing financial flows to Latin America: selected issues 31 D. The terms of export credits and trade financing arrangements 36 E. Rescheduling of official bilateral debt 42 Part Two RETHINKING ECONOMIC POLICIES: LESSONS FROM EXPERIENCE INTRODUCTION 47 Chapter I THE VISIBLE HAND AND THE INDUSTRIALIZATION OF EAST ASIA 49 A. Introduction 49 Economic performance in a long-term perspective 51 C. Government business relationships 52 Building firm-level capabilities, productivity and international competitiveness 57 1. Policy ingredients 58 2. Differences in industrial deepening 67 E. Rents as incentives 68 F Productivity, industrialization and the balance of payments 69 Profits, savings and investment 71 H. Conclusions 75 Chapter II THE DEFLATIONARY GAP AND ADJUSTMENT IN THE NORTH 77 A. The origins and consequences of imbalances 77 B. Recovery and adjustment in the United States 80 C. Underconsumption and trade surplus in Japan 84 D. Stagnation and unemployment in Western Europe 88 E. Conclusion 92 Page Annex to chapter II CONTROLS ON INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MOVEMENTS 95 A. Introduction 95 B. Modalities of policies towards international capital movements 96 C. Regimes for international capital movements 98 D. Some proposals concerning international capital movements 106 Part Three THE URUGUAY ROUND: AN INITIAL ASSESSMENT INTRODUCTION 119 Chapter I THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION 123 Chapter II THE KEY AGREEMENTS 127 A. Safeguards 127 B. Textiles and clothing 129 C. Subsidies and countervailing measures 131 D. Agriculture 132 E. Anti-dumping 135 F. Trade-related investment measures 136 G. Other multilateral agreements on trade in goods 137 H. Plurilateral trade agreements 138 I, Tariff negotiations 139 Chapter III EXPANSION OF THE COVERAGE OF MULTILATERAL DISCIPLINES 151 r\ * J. I 4UC III M*! V IvvO . ..a...*...,..,..,...,..*.*...»*..... ..... .. < .............*...*....*...... ......... ...... < ............. -i 1 *J I B. Trade related Intellectual Property Rights 154 VI Page Chapter IV THE DEVELOPMENT DIMENSION 157 A. Towards a development-oriented system 157 B. The scope of policy options 158 C. The least developed countries 161 Chapter V THE REVIVAL OF MULTILATERALISM 163 A. Enforcement of multilateral disciplines 163 B. Regional agreements 164 Chapter VI IMPLEMENTATION AND CONTINUED NEGOTIATION 167 A. The built-in work programme 167 B. Accession to GATT/WTO 168 C. The future agenda 170 vit List of text tables Table Page World output, 1980-1994 4 GDP growth in selected OECD countries in 1993: comparison of actual growth with forecasts by various institutions 10 3 Alternative forecasts of GDP growth in 1994 for selected OECD countries 10 4 Main indicators of world trade 14 United States: trade by major regions of origin and destination in 1992 and 1993 15 6 Japan: trade by major regions of origin and destination in 1992 and 1993 16 7 Exports and imports by major regions and economic groupings, 1991-1993 17 8 World primary commodity prices, 1991-1994 18 9 Export concentration and diversification indices for selected Latin American countries, 1980 and 1990 20 10 Commodity and geographical structure of exports from Latin America in 1990 21 Latin America: trade in manufactures bv major regions of origin and destination, 1970-1990 '. 21 12 Selected categories of international financing and shares of developing and Central and Eastern European countries therein, 1989-1993 24 13 External assets of banks in the BIS reporting area vis-à-vis developing and Central and Eastern European countries, 1986-1993 25 14 Selected international interest rates 26 15 Ratio of debt to exports of goods and services of selected groups of developing countries 27 16 Total export credits to developing countries, by region 29 Net flow of medium-term and long-term export credits to developing countries, 1986-1992 30 18 Representative exchange-rate adjusted lending or money-market rates of interest in selected Latin American countries and excess returns as compared with United States rates 34 Yield spreads on international bond issues, by type of borrower, for selected Latin American countries, in 1993 and early 1994 35 20 Terms of insurance cover available to selected regions from selected export credit agencies 38 Changes in terms on insurance cover available to selected regions from selected export credit agencies 39 22 Availability of export credit insurance cover for countries of Central and Eastern Europe and former republics of Yugoslavia from selected export credit agencies 40 23 Proportion of export credit agencies in selected OECD countries that incurred cash-flow deficits, 1983-1992 40 24 Payments arrangements for countries of Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe 42 25 Quad countries: distribution of imports in 1988 by level of MFN duty (at pre- and post-Uruguay Round rates) 140 Reduction in trade-weighted tariff averages for imports by Quad countries in 1988 142 Quad countries: pre- and post-Uruguay Round MFN tariff profiles 148 VIH List of boxes Box Page Plan objectives in Japan, 1955-1970 55 2 The Cooperative Credit Purchasing Company of Japan 86 3 Capital flows and the recent behaviour of the dollar 92 4 List of Agreements concluded at the Uruguay Round (Marrakesh, 15 April 1994) and of related Decisions and Declarations 120 5 UNCTAD technical assistance activities in relation to the Uruguay Round 160 6 Countries and customs territories that are non-contracting parties to GATT 1947 covered by the Ministerial Decision on Acceptance of and Accession to the WTO Agreement (as of 1 July 1994) 169 Possible additional items to the WTO work programme 171 8 The Uruguay Round in the Mid-Term Review of the Cartagena Commitment of UNCTAD VIII 172 & Explanatory notes Classification by country or commodity group The classification of countries used in this Report generally follows that of the UNCTAD Handbook of International Trade and Development Statistics 1993} It has been adopted solely for the purposes of statistical or analytical convenience and does not necessarily imply any judgement concerning the stage of development of a particular country or area. The term "country" refers, as appropriate, also to territories or areas. Generally speaking, sub-groupings within geographical regions and analytical groupings (e.g. Major petroleum exporters, Major exporters of manufactures and Least developed countries (LDCs)) are those used in the UNCTAD Handbook of International Trade and Development Statistics 1993. References to "Latin America" in the text or tables include the Caribbean countries unless otherwise indicated. The terms "economies in transition" (or similar terminology) and "Central and Eastern Europe" refer to Albania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and the former USSR (com­ prising the Baltic republics and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)). Unless otherwise stated, the classification by commodity group used in this Report follows generally that em­ ployed in the Handbook of International Trade and Development Statistics 1993. Other notes References in the text to TDR are to the Trade and Development Report (of a particular year). For example, TDR 1993 refers to Trade and Development Report, 1993 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.93.II.D.10). The term dollar ($) refers to United States dollars, unless otherwise stated. The term 'billion' signifies 1,000 million and 'trillion' 1,000 billion The term 'tons' refers to metric tons. Annual rates of growth and change refer to compound rates. Exports are valued f.o.b. and imports c.i.f, unless otherwise specified. Use of a hyphen (-) between dates representing years, &g, 1988-1990, signifies the full period in­ volved, including the initial and final years. An oblique stroke (/) between two years, e.g. 1990/91, signifies a fiscal or crop year. Two dots (..) indicate that the data are not available, or are not separately reported. A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. A plus sign ( + ) before a figure indicates an increase; a minus sign (-) before a figure indicates a decrease.
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