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Golden Horseshoe Economic Profile EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Prepared For GTA AAC Agriculture Action Committee T: 1.519.925.5975 W: www.foodandfarming.ca/ Project Coordinated By: Margaret Walton 104 Kimberley Avenue Bracebridge, ON P1L 1Z8 T: 1.705.645.1556 • F: 1.705.645.4500 In Collaboration With Executive Summary The Golden Horseshoe is a rich farming area producing a vast array of agricultural products, numbers of which cannot be grown elsewhere in Ontario. Even today, as the region with the largest concentration of urban development in Canada, the Golden Horseshoe (GH) continues to contain in excess of 6,000 farms with almost a million acres of farmland producing over 200 commodities for local and international markets and generating an estimated annual economic impact on the provincial economy of $6.3 billion. The GH is home to a rich, irreplaceable agricultural resource with a long history of prosperous, productive farms. It helps sustain one of the largest food processing clusters in North America and provides fresh local produce to support the burgeoning food service sector that enhances the quality of life for all Ontario residents. However, the nature of agricultural community in the GH continues to change. As pressure for urban growth continues, agricultural lands are under pressure. We need to understand this pressure and the impacts it is having on agriculture in the GH, in order to protect this resource. In the Golden Horseshoe Agriculture and Agri-Food Strategy Food and Farming: An Action Plan 2021 (The Action Plan), support for the GH food and farming cluster was identified as a fundament element in achieving the vision of sustaining the Golden Horseshoe as a “(…) globally renowned (…) vibrant food and farming cluster characterized by profitable farming operations, a thriving hub of food processing, food retail and food service businesses, extensive research capacity innovative technology, and a wide range of healthy and safe products”. 1 To achieve this vision and understand the trends impacting the sector this report: Summarizes qualitative and quantitative data on the social, economic, environmental and cultural elements within and across the GH as they relate to agriculture; Provides a detailed overview of agriculture in the GH and its constituent regions based on the 2011 Agricultural Census; Reflects on the changes to the agricultural sector over time; Assesses strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats as they relate to the agricultural sector; Identifies indicators and metrics for ongoing monitoring of the sector; and Provides research to contribute to future communication and marketing strategies. 1 Golden Horseshoe Agriculture & Agri-Food Strategy, Food and Farming: An Action Plan 2021. January 2012, pg. 7. October 2014 E 1 Executive Summary AGRICULTURAL PROFILE While there continues to be a significant agricultural presence in the GH; the steady decline in both number of farms and farmland area apparent in the past, continued between 2006 and 2011. Total Farmland Area (Acres) in the Golden Horseshoe, 1996 to 2011 Number of Farms in the Golden Horseshoe, 1996—2011 1,150,000 9,000 1,100,000 8,000 7,000 1,050,000 6,000 1,000,000 5,000 4,000 (Acres) Area 950,000 Number of FarmsNumber 3,000 900,000 2,000 1,000 850,000 1996 2001 2006 2011 0 1996 2001 2006 2011 Farmland Area 1,137,568 1,081,138 1,042,899 977,481 Number of Farms 8,118 7,162 6,918 6,090 NOTE: Data for farmland area is calculated on all farms reporting. Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Agriculture, 1996 to 2011 Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Agriculture, 1996 to 2011 Despite the decline in area of farmland, the value of primary agricultural production as measured in Gross Farm Receipts (GFRs) in the GH increased from $1.5 billion in 2006 to $1.7 billion in 2011. This primary production resulted in an economic impact on the provincial economy in 2011 of $6.3 billion broken down as: $1.2 billion in direct impacts; $ 6.3 Billion in Annual Economic Impact $3.1 billion in indirect impacts; $2.1 billion in induced impacts; and An employment impact equivalent to approximately 41,000 person years of employment. $ 1.2 Billion $ 3.1 Billion $ 2.1 Billion 41,000 Jobs $ 1.7 Billion in GFRs October 2014 E 2 Executive Summary Production in the GH continued to be diverse in 2011 with the top ranking commodities focused on greenhouse production, fruit, cash crops, nursery and poultry and egg. The GH accounts for a disproportionate amount of provincial agricultural production based on the size of its land base. In 2011, although the GH contained only 8% of the area of provincial farmland, that land generated 15% of the provincial GFRs. This will be due to the very high productivity of this area, resulting from a combination of climate, fertile soil and access to water. This high productivity underscores the importance of supporting agriculture in this area both because of the productivity but also because there are crops grown in the GH (e.g. tender fruit, okra) that cannot be grown anywhere else in the province. Despite the rising value of production in the GH, there were some worrying trends apparent in the 2011 statistics. In addition to the decline in both farmland area and number of farms, farmland rental rates increased to 45% across the GH between 2006 and 2011 with rates in Peel, Halton and York exceeding 50%. The cost of farming in the GH rose and the farm population continued to age. Percentage of Total Area Owned and Rented for the Golden Horseshoe, by Region, 2011 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Durham Niagara Golden Halton Region Peel Region York Region Hamilton Ontario Region Region Horseshoe % of Total Area Owned 42% 46% 48% 61% 53% 63% 55% 71% % of Total Area Rented/Leased/Crop Shared 58% 54% 52% 39% 47% 37% 45% 29% Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Agriculture, 2011 October 2014 E 3 Executive Summary The threats impacting the future of farming in the GH are largely associated with the rapid urbanization occurring in the region. Urban growth has driven the price of land up to a point where it has become unaffordable as farmland. In 2011, average farm capital values in the GH were in excess of $2.2 million which compares to a provincial average of $1.6 million. This very high value, coupled with rising operating costs in the GH, renders it extremely difficult for new farmers to get established in the region and for existing operators to compete. Implementation of the Greenbelt Plan in 2005 and the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe in 2006, were intended to stabilize rural areas and provide support to agriculture. However, farmers have indicated that the reduction in farmland acreage, encroachment of urban boundaries into rural areas, acquisition of land by speculators, increasing regulations and conversion of farms to rural estates is negating the effect of some of the policies supporting agriculture within the Greenbelt. In the area between the Greenbelt and newly established urban boundaries, uncertainty about the future for farming has destabilized these agricultural areas. Strong action, such as is contemplated in The Action Plan, will be required to support, stabilize and enhance this important agricultural resource. October 2014 E 4 Executive Summary DEMOGRAPHICS In the last five years, the GH has continued its long term Population Growth (000s) in the Golden Horseshoe by Region, 2001 – 2011 and Projected to 2031 trend as one of the fastest growing economic regions in 3,500 Canada. Its population has continued to grow rapidly. This (000s) growth is expected to continue for the next two decades. 3,000 While the region’s population has been growing, 2,500 demographic and cultural shifts are occurring reflecting an Durham Region Halton Region overall aging of the population, continued education 2,000 growth, continued high levels of immigration and Hamilton Niagara Region 1,500 increasing numbers of visible minorities throughout the Peel Region region. For the agricultural sector, these shifts present Toronto both challenges and opportunities. Rapid population 1,000 York Region growth will place continued pressure on the agricultural land base, on farming and food production and on efforts 500 to establish a balance between rural and urban land uses. 0 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Prevalence of Visible Minorities in the Golden Horseshoe Regions, 1996 to 2011 Sources: Hemson Consulting Ltd., Greater Golden Horseshoe Forecasts to 2041, Technical 60% Report (November 2012) Addendum, June 2013, Appendix B, Section 1, Table 1 Reference Projection. This report was produced for the most recent Places to Grow forecast projections. 50% 40% On a positive note, the rapid growth in the population will increase demand for food and agricultural products. 30% Demographic change and cultural shifts will create 20% continued demand for a variety of diverse food and agricultural products thus presenting new opportunities. 10% Farmers and growers able to respond effectively, innovatively and entrepreneurially will be rewarded as 0% 1996 2001 2006 2011 they address a host of challenging issues including Durham Region 10% 12% 17% 20% Halton Region 7% 9% 13% 18% changing demographics, new markets, continued Hamilton 9% 11% 13% 15% urbanization, changing inputs and costs of production, Niagara Region 3% 4% 6% 6% Peel Region 31% 38% 50% 57% work force management issues, environmental issues and Toronto 37% 42% 46% 48% complex legislation. York Region 24% 30% 37% 43% Total Golden Horseshoe 26% 30% 36% 39% Rest of Ontario 5% 6% 8% 9% Source: Statistics Canada. 1996, 2001, 2006, Censuses, 2011 National Household Survey. October 2014 E 5 Executive Summary ENVIRONMENT As an inherent component of the rural landscape in the GH, agricultural lands provide many environmental benefits.
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