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Thompson and Neumann Closing on Even Feingold in WI-Sen

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Thompson and Neumann Closing on Even Feingold in WI-Sen FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 18, 2011 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Thompson and Neumann closing on even Feingold in WI-Sen. Raleigh, N.C. – Yesterday’s release showed Tommy Thompson as potentially very vulnerable to a challenge from his right by Mark Neumann for the Republican Senate nomination in Wisconsin. But despite Thompson’s electability claims, even Neumann is in decent shape against any possible Democratic nominee but Russ Feingold, as the race has taken a definite turn toward the GOP since PPP last polled the state in May. Now Neumann tops Ron Kind, 43-40; Tammy Baldwin, 44-40; and Steve Kagen, 45-38, while trailing Feingold, 51-44. Three months ago, Neumann lagged Kagen by one point, Kind by four, Baldwin by five, and Feingold by 12, a shift of five to nine points on the margin. Thompson is still the stronger candidate, but he only outperforms Neumann by one to six points—not so much, particularly when taking into consideration the 34-point disparity between the two men’s name recognition. Thompson lags Feingold only 48-47, a closure of nine points in three months. But he leads Kind, 48-41 (up seven); Baldwin, 50-42 (up seven); and Kagen, 49-41 (up five). Feingold is still the best-known and best-liked of the candidates, 49% having a favorable impression of him and 43% a negative one. That bests Thompson’s 44-42, Baldwin’s 26- 28, Neumann’s 25-27, Kind’s 18-26, and Kagen’s 12-23. Because of the Democrats’ anonymity, more Democrats than Republicans are undecided except in the Feingold matchups, so the races will likely close. But the Republicans lead with independents except against Feingold, and all of the Democrats are losing more of their own party than they are gaining GOP support. “Republicans have a genuine pick up opportunity here,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “As the recall elections showed this is a very closely divided state right now.” PPP surveyed 830 Wisconsin voters from August 12th to 14th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates. Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] Wisconsin Survey Results Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q7 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were of Russ Feingold? Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Mark Neumann, who would you vote for? Favorable........................................................ 49% Tammy Baldwin............................................... 40% Unfavorable .................................................... 43% Mark Neumann ............................................... 44% Not sure .......................................................... 8% Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Undecided....................................................... 15% of Ron Kind? Q8 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were 18% Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Favorable........................................................ Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for? Unfavorable .................................................... 26% Tammy Baldwin............................................... 42% Not sure .......................................................... 56% Tommy Thompson .......................................... 50% Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tammy Baldwin? Undecided....................................................... 8% 26% Q9 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Favorable........................................................ Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican Mark Unfavorable .................................................... 28% Neumann, who would you vote for? Not sure .......................................................... 46% Russ Feingold................................................. 51% Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Mark Neumann ............................................... 44% of Steve Kagen? Undecided....................................................... 5% 12% Favorable........................................................ Q10 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Unfavorable .................................................... 23% Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for? Not sure .......................................................... 64% 48% Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Russ Feingold................................................. of Mark Neumann? Tommy Thompson .......................................... 47% Favorable........................................................ 25% Undecided....................................................... 5% Unfavorable .................................................... 27% Q11 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were 48% Democrat Ron Kind and Republican Mark Not sure .......................................................... Neumann, who would you vote for? Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tommy Thompson? Ron Kind......................................................... 40% 43% Favorable........................................................ 44% Mark Neumann ............................................... 17% Unfavorable .................................................... 42% Undecided....................................................... Not sure .......................................................... 14% August 12-14, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 830 Wisconsin voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q12 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, Democrat Ron Kind and Republican Tommy somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat Thompson, who would you vote for? conservative, or very conservative? Ron Kind......................................................... 41% Very liberal...................................................... 11% Tommy Thompson .......................................... 48% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 22% Undecided....................................................... 11% Moderate......................................................... 29% Q13 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Somewhat conservative.................................. 21% Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican Mark Neumann, who would you vote for? Very conservative ........................................... 17% Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Steve Kagen ................................................... 38% Woman ........................................................... 55% Mark Neumann ............................................... 45% Man................................................................. 45% Undecided....................................................... 17% Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, Q14 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were press 2. If you are an independent or identify Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican with another party, press 3. Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for? Democrat ........................................................ 37% Steve Kagen ................................................... 41% Republican...................................................... 34% Tommy Thompson .......................................... 49% Independent/Other.......................................... 29% Undecided....................................................... 10% Q19 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2. Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008? White .............................................................. 89% John McCain................................................... 41% Other............................................................... 11% Barack Obama................................................ 51% Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 8% 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4. 18 to 29........................................................... 12% 30 to 45........................................................... 26% 46 to 65........................................................... 42% Older than 65 .................................................. 20% August 12-14, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 830 Wisconsin voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs 2008 Vote 2008 Vote John Bar ack Someone else/Don't John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember Feingold Favorability Kind Favorability Favorable 49% 12% 79% 46% Favorable 18% 12% 23% 19% Unfavorable 43% 78% 14% 44% Unfavorable 26% 26% 26% 26% Not s ur e 8% 10% 7% 10% Not s ur e 56% 62% 51% 56% 2008 Vote 2008 Vote John Bar ack Someone else/Don't John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember Baldw in Favorability Kagen Favorability Favorable 26% 7% 41% 27%
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