State of the Congressional Battleground 55 Democratic-Held Seats, 20 Republican-Held Seats October 16,October 2009 | 16,Page 2009 2 Methodology

October 16,October 2009 | 16,Page 2009 1

October 16, 2009

Survey in the Congressional Battleground

2,000 likely voters (2,010 unweighted) in 55 Democratic-held battleground House districts and 20 Republican-held battleground House districts 500 Democratic Tier 1 (503 unweighted) 500 Democratic Tier 2 (486 unweighted) 500 Democratic Tier 3 (535 unweighted) 500 Republican (486 unweighted)

October 6-11, 2009 Margin of Error: 2.2% (4.5% within each tier and GOP battleground) October 16,October 2009 | 16,Page 2009 3 Tier 1: 20 most competitive Democratic-held congressional districts DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENT 2008 CONG. 2006 CONG. 2008 PRES. STATE AND DISTRICT INCUMBENT SINCE MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN ALABAMA 02 Bobby Bright 2008 Dem. +1 Rep. +39 McCain +26 ALABAMA 05 Parker Griffith 2008 Dem. +4 unopposed McCain +23 COLORADO 04 Betsy Markey 2008 Dem. +12 Rep. +3 McCain +1 FLORIDA 08 Alan Grayson 2008 Dem. +4 Rep. +7 Obama +6 FLORIDA 24 Suzanne Kosmas 2008 Dem. +16 Rep. +16 McCain +2 IDAHO 01 Walt Minnick 2008 Dem. +1 Rep. +5 McCain +26 LOUISIANA 03 OPEN n/a unopposed Dem. +15 McCain +24 MARYLAND 01 Frank Kratovil 2008 Dem. +1 Rep. +38 McCain +18 MISSISSIPPI 01 Travis Childers 2008 Dem. +11 Rep. +32 McCain +25 NEW HAMPSHIRE 01 Carol Shea-Porter 2006 Dem. +6 Dem. +2 Obama +6 NEW HAMPSHIRE 02 OPEN n/a Dem. +15 Dem. +7 Obama +13 NEW JERSEY 03 John Adler 2008 Dem. +4 Rep. +17 Obama +5 NEW MEXICO 02 Harry Teague 2008 Dem. +12 Rep. +19 McCain +1 NEW YORK 24 Mike Arcuri 2006 Dem. +4 Dem. +9 Obama +2 NEW YORK 29 Eric Massa 2008 Dem. +2 Rep. +2 McCain +2 OHIO 01 Steve Driehaus 2008 Dem. +5 Rep. +4 Obama +10 OHIO 15 Mary Jo Kilroy 2008 Dem. +1 Rep. +0.5 Obama +9 PENNSYLVANIA 03 Kathy Dahlkemper 2008 Dem. +2 Rep. +12 McCain +0.01 VIRGINIA 02 Glenn Nye 2008 Dem. +5 Rep. +3 Obama +2 VIRGINIA 05 Tom Perriello 2008 Dem. +0.2 Rep. +19 McCain +2 TOTAL DEMOCRATIC BATTLEGROUND TIER 1: DEM. +6 REP. +6 McCain +5 October 16,October 2009 | 16,Page 2009 4 Tier 2: 20 next most competitive Democratic-held congressional districts DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENT 2008 CONG. 2006 CONG. 2008 PRES. STATE AND DISTRICT INCUMBENT SINCE MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN ARIZONA 01 Ann Kirkpatrick 2008 Dem. +16 Rep. +9 McCain +10 ARIZONA 05 Harry Mitchell 2006 Dem. +10 Dem. +4 McCain +5 CALIFORNIA 11 Jerry McNerney 2006 Dem. +11 Dem. +6 Obama +9 GEORGIA 08 Jim Marshall 2002 Dem. +14 Dem. +2 McCain +13 ILLINOIS 11 Debbie Halvorson 2008 Dem. +24 Rep. +10 Obama +8 ILLINOIS 14 Bill Foster 2008 Dem. +16 Rep. +20 Obama +11 INDIANA 09 Baron Hill 2006 Dem. +19 Dem. +5 McCain +1 MICHIGAN 07 Mark Schauer 2008 Dem. +2 Rep. +4 Obama +6 MICHIGAN 09 Gary Peters 2008 Dem. +9 Rep. +6 Obama +13 NEVADA 03 Dina Titus 2008 Dem. +5 Rep. +1 Obama +13 NEW MEXICO 01 Martin Heinrich 2008 Dem. +11 Rep. +0.4 Obama +20 NEW YORK 13 Mike McMahon 2008 Dem. +27 Rep. +14 McCain +2 NEW YORK 19 John Hall 2006 Dem. +17 Dem. +2 Obama +2 NEW YORK 20 Scott Murphy 2009 Dem. +0.5 Dem. +6 Obama +3 NORTH CAROLINA 08 Larry Kissell 2008 Dem. +11 Rep. +0.3 Obama +6 OHIO 16 John Boccieri 2008 Dem. +11 Rep. +16 McCain +3 PENNSYLVANIA 7 OPEN n/a Dem. +19 Dem. +13 Obama +13 TEXAS 17 Chet Edwards 1990 Dem. +7 Dem. +18 McCain +35 TEXAS 23 Ciro Rodriguez 2006 Dem. +14 Dem. +8 Obama +3 WISCONSIN 08 Steve Kagen 2006 Dem. +8 Dem. +2 Obama +8 TOTAL DEMOCRATIC BATTLEGROUND TIER 2: DEM. +13 REP. +1 Obama +3 October 16,October 2009 | 16,Page 2009 5 Tier 3: 15 Entrenched Democratic incumbents in conservative districts DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENT 2008 CONG. 2006 CONG. 2008 PRES. STATE AND DISTRICT INCUMBENT SINCE MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN ARKANSAS 01 Marion Berry 1996 unopposed Dem. +38 McCain +20 ARKANSAS 02 Vic Snyder 1996 unopposed Dem. +21 McCain +10 CALIFORNIA 47 Loretta Sanchez 1996 Dem. +11 Dem. +25 Obama +22 FLORIDA 02 Allen Boyd 1996 Dem. +14 unopposed McCain +10 KANSAS 03 Dennis Moore 1998 Dem. +24 Dem. +31 Obama +2 KENTUCKY 06 Ben Chandler 2004 Dem. +16 unopposed McCain +12 MISSOURI 04 Ike Skelton 1976 Dem. +19 Dem. +38 McCain +23 NEW YORK 01 Tim Bishop 2002 Dem. +2 Dem. +24 Obama +4 NORTH DAKOTA AL Earl Pomeroy 1992 Dem. +9 Dem. +31 McCain +9 OREGON 04 Peter DeFazio 1986 unopposed Dem. +25 Obama +10 TENNESSEE 04 Lincoln Davis 2002 Dem. +11 Dem. +33 McCain +30 TENNESSEE 08 John Tanner 1988 unopposed Dem. +46 McCain +13 VIRGINIA 09 Rick Boucher 1982 unopposed Dem. +36 McCain +19 WEST VIRGINIA 01 Alan Mollohan 1982 unopposed Dem. +29 McCain +15 WISCONSIN 03 Ron Kind 1996 Dem. +11 Dem. +30 Obama +17 TOTAL DEMOCRATIC BATTLEGROUND TIER 3: DEM. +45 DEM +35 McCain +7 October 16,October 2009 | 16,Page 2009 6 Republican districts: 20 most competitive Republican-held seats REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT 2008 CONG. 2006 CONG. 2008 PRES. STATE AND DISTRICT INCUMBENT SINCE MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN CALIFORNIA 03 Dan Lungren 2004 Rep. +5 Rep. +21 Obama +0.5 CALIFORNIA 44 Ken Calvert 1992 Rep. +2 Rep. +23 Obama +1 CALIFORNIA 45 Mary Bono Mack 1998 Rep. +17 Rep. +22 Obama +5 CALIFORNIA 50 Brian Bilbray 1994 Rep. +5 Rep. +10 Obama +4 DELAWARE AL OPEN n/a Rep. +23 Rep. +18 Obama +25 FLORIDA 10 Bill Young 1970 Rep. +21 Rep. +32 Obama +4 FLORIDA 12 OPEN n/a Rep. +15 Rep. +50 McCain +4 ILLINOIS 10 OPEN n/a Rep. +5 Rep. +6 Obama +23 LOUISIANA 02 Joseph Cao 2008 Rep. +3 Dem. +14 Obama +49 MICHIGAN 11 Thad McCotter 2002 Rep. +6 Rep. +11 Obama +9 MINNESOTA 03 Erik Paulsen 2008 Rep. +8 Rep. +30 Obama +6 MINNESOTA 06 Michele Bachmann 2006 Rep. +3 Rep. +8 McCain +9 MISSOURI 09 Blaine Luetkemeyer 2008 Rep. +3 Rep. +25 McCain +11 NEBRASKA 02 Lee Terry 1998 Rep. +5 Rep. +10 Obama +1 OHIO 02 Jean Schmidt 2005 Rep. +7 Rep. +1 McCain +19 OHIO 12 Patrick Tiberi 2000 Rep. +13 Rep. +14 Obama +7 PENNSYLVANIA 06 OPEN n/a Rep. +4 Rep. +2 Obama +17 PENNSYLVANIA 15 Charlie Dent 2004 Rep. +17 Rep. +11 Obama +14 TEXAS 10 Michael McCaul 2004 Rep. +11 Rep. +15 McCain +11 WASHINGTON 08 Dave Reichert 2004 Rep. +6 Rep. +2 Obama +15 TOTAL REPUBLICAN BATTLEGROUND: REP. +13 REP. +16 Obama +6 October 16,October 2009 | 16,Page 2009 7

The 40 most competitive Democratic-held seats and the GOP battleground

Page 7 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October 16,October 2009 | 16,Page 2009 8

Incumbents lead named vote, but below 50 percent; GOP as well

I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress next year, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for – (DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE)?

Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate

Dem. +3 Dem. +3 Dem. +3 Rep. +9

48 47 48 48 45 44 45 39 44 44 44 43 41 40 39 37

Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democratic DistrictsDem. Tier 1 Dem. Tier 2 Republican Districts

*Note: The 2008-elected incumbent was inserted as the Democratic Candidate for all Democratic-held districts with the generic “Republican Candidate” as the challenger, and as the Republican Candidate for all Republican-held districts with the generic “Democratic Candidate” as the challenger. In districts where the incumbent has announced s/he will not run for re-election, the generic identified was inserted. October 16,October 2009 | 16,Page 2009 9

Incumbents in Tier 2 falling short of 2008 vote share

Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate

Margin Shift -3 Margin Shift -10 Margin Shift +5

55 52 53 48 48 46 47 45 44 42 39 39

2008 Actual Vote 2010 Survey Vote 2008 Actual Vote 2010 Survey Vote 2008 Actual Vote 2010 Survey Vote

Democratic Tier 1 Democratic Tier 2 Republican Districts *Note: For each district, the incumbents’ names were inserted, preceded by their party identification, and were matched against a generic candidate from the opposition party. The 2008 actual vote comes from official reports by the secretaries of state. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 10

Incumbents losing ground since July in tier 2, but holding in tier 1

Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate

Margin Shift -1 Margin Shift -4 Margin Shift -3

49 48 48 47 47 45 47 43 44 42 41 39

July October July October July October Democratic Tier 1 Democratic Tier 2 Republican Districts

*Note: For each district, the incumbents’ names were inserted preceded by their party identification, matched against a generic candidate of opposition party. Data from the common districts between the two waves. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 11

Class of 2006 in better shape than class of 2008

I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (Democratic Candidate) or (Republican Candidate)?

Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate

Dem. +8 Dem. +2

50 47 42 45 46 43 38 40

Democrat Republican Democrat Republican 2006 Democratic Pick-Up Districts 2008 Democratic Pick-Up Districts

*Note: Democratic districts only. The named incumbents, preceded by party identification, were matched against a generic candidate of opposition party. Where incumbents have announced intentions not to seek reelection, both candidates were generic. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 12 Voter choice scales: Democratic tiers 1 & 2

Democrat Not Democrat 38

19 17 8 9 3 2 3

Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable

Republican Not Republican 33

19 20 4 13 4 5 2

Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 13 High number of Democratic ‘winnables’ in GOP districts

Democrat Not Democrat 37

20 19 16 1 223

Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable

Republican Not Republican 34

18 19 5 2 9 10 3

Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 14

Voters uncertain whether to re-elect incumbents, even GOP

As you may know, there will be an election for your Representative to Congress in November next year. Do you think you will definitely vote to re-elect (HOUSE INCUMBENT) to Congress, probably vote to re-elect (HOUSE INCUMBENT), probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else?

Definitely Reelect Definitely Vote Someone Else Don't Know/Refused/Depends

45 44 47 40 41 39 40 40

22 22 22 21 20 1415 1416 14 15 13

Reelect Someone DK/Ref Reelect Someone DK/Ref Reelect Someone DK/Ref Reelect Someone DK/Ref Else Else Else Else Democratic Democratic Tier 1 Democratic Tier 2 Republican Districts Districts *Note: Actual incumbent’s name inserted. Question not asked in districts where the incumbent has announced they are not running for reelection. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 15 Voters beginning to pull away from incumbents in battleground

Definitely Reelect Definitely Vote Someone Else Don't Know/Refused/Depends

45 43 38 39 40 40 41 39

22 22 21 19 18 15 16 18 11 14 14 14

Reelect Someone DK/Ref Reelect Someone DK/Ref Reelect Someone DK/Ref Reelect Someone DK/Ref Else Else Else Else July October July October Democratic Districts Republican Districts

*Note: Actual incumbent’s name inserted. Question not asked in districts where the incumbent has announced they are not running for reelection. Shows only common districts between the July and October surveys. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 16 Dem. tiers divided on incumbent re-elect, GOP leans someone new

First Statement: Next year, I WILL vote to Second Statement: Next year, I CAN'T vote to reelect (HOUSE INCUMBENT) because reelect (HOUSE INCUMBENT) because we need (HE/SHE) is doing a good job and addressing new people that will fix Washington and get things issues that are important to us.* done.

Vote Democrat Strongly Vote Republican Strongly First – Second Democratic Districts 44 31 35 48 -4

Democratic Tier 1 45 32 35 46 -1

Democratic Tier 2 43 30 36 49 -6

Republican Districts 3926 37 50 -11

100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

Note: The pro-incumbent vote shown on left-hand side of the graph and coded per party. Actual incumbent’s name inserted. Not asked in seats where incumbent is not seeking reelection. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 17 Shift against incumbent’s “good job” in Democratic tier 2

First statement strongly Second statement strongly Margin Shift +2 Margin Shift +5

49 45 45 46 42 42 41 43

33 35 35 32 30 30 25 28

WILL vote to CAN'T vote to WILL vote to CAN'T vote to WILL vote to CAN'T vote to WILL vote to CAN'T vote to re-elect re-elect re-elect re-elect re-elect re-elect re-elect re-elect

July October July October Democratic Tier 1 Democratic Tier 2 October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 18 Large shift against GOP incumbent’s productivity, job performance

First statement strongly Second statement strongly Margin Shift +10

50 42 42 40

36 27 26 27

WILL vote to re-elect CAN'T vote to re-elect WILL vote to re-elect CAN'T vote to re-elect July October *Note: Actual incumbent’s name inserted. Question not asked in districts where the incumbent has announced they are not running for reelection. Shows only common districts between the July and October surveys. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 19

Battleground divided over change vs. rubber stamp in Congress

First statement strongly Second statement strongly

Republican +1 Democrat +5

49 45 46 44

40 34 37 36

Next year I will vote for Next year I really want to Next year I really want to Next year I will vote for (HOUSE INCUMBENT) be able to vote for a be able to vote for a (House Incumbent) because (HE/SHE) is Republican for Congress Democrat for Congress because the Democratic fighting for change and because at least he or she because at least he or Congress is just making progress won't be a rubber stamp she will work with business as usual in addressing the problems for national Democrats President Obama to bring Washington and more of our nation is facing. and all of their wasteful the change we need. the same tax and spend spending. policies. Democratic Districts Republican Districts October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 20 Top tier sees incumbent for change; tier 2 leans toward Republican

Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Second Statement: Next year I really want to be First Statement: Next year I will vote for (HOUSE able to vote for a Republican for Congress because INCUMBENT) because (HE/SHE) is fighting for at least he or she won't be a rubber stamp for change and making progress addressing the national Democrats and all of their wasteful problems our nationMargin is facing.* Shift +6 Margin Shift 0 spending. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +3 +4

48 47 44 44

39 35 36 33

Democrat incumbent for Republican won't be rubber Democrat incumbent for Republican won't be rubber change and progress stamp for wasteful spending change and progress stamp for wasteful spending

Democratic Tier 1 Democratic Tier 2

*Note: Asked only in Democratic-held districts. For each district, the incumbent’s name was inserted,Page 20 | withGreenberg party identificatio Quinlan Rosnern. Question not asked in districts where the incumbent has announced they are not running for reelection. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 21 Movement away from “change” message, against spending

Second Statement: Next year I really want to be First Statement: Next year I will vote for (HOUSE able to vote for a Republican for Congress because INCUMBENT) because (HE/SHE) is fighting for at least he or she won't be a rubber stamp for change and making progress addressing the national Democrats and all of their wasteful problems our nation is facing.* spending. First statement strongly Second statement strongly

Margin Shift -4 Margin Shift -10

48 47 47 44 45 48 40 41 38 35 36 34 31 30 32 32

Incumbent for Rep not Incumbent for Rep not Incumbent for Rep not Incumbent for Rep not change, rubber stamp, change, rubber stamp, change, rubber stamp, change, rubber stamp, progress wasteful progress wasteful progress wasteful progress wasteful

July October July October Democratic Tier 1 Democratic Tier 2 October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 22 In Republican battleground, little movement on re-election

First Statement: Next year I really want to be able to Second Statement: Next year I will vote for (House vote for a Democrat for Congress because at least Incumbent) because the Democratic Congress is he or she will work with President Obama to bring the just business as usual in Washington and more of change we need. the same tax and spend policies.

First statement strongly Second statement strongly Margin Shift -2

49 49 42 44 40 37 35 31

Democrat will work with For incumbent because Democrat will work with For incumbent because president for change Dems are business as usual president for change Dems are business as usual July October *Note: Actual incumbent’s name inserted. Question not asked in districts where the incumbent has announced they are not running for reelection. Shows only common districts between the July and October surveys. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 23

Image of incumbent members

Page 23 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 24

Incumbent job approval: all positive but Dems short of 50

Do you approve or disapprove of the way (HOUSE INCUMBENT) is handling his/her job as a member of the U.S. Congress? Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove

51 47 48

33 33 28

22 21 1820 18 19

Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Democratic Tier 1 Democratic Tier 2 Republican Districts

*Note: For each district, the incumbents’ names were inserted. Question not asked in districts where the incumbent has announced they are not running for reelection. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 25 Tier 2 incumbent favorability score drops below 50

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one Therm. Warm - Percent hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Mean Cool Know Cool Warm Democratic Districts 31 35 50.3 +4 85

Democratic 30 36 51.2 +6 86 Tier 1 Districts

Democratic 33 35 Tier 2 Districts 49.4 +2 85

Republican 28 38 Districts 51.2 +10 83

50 25 0 25 50

*Note: Actual names of “house incumbents” were inserted. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 26

Dem incumbent favorability trending down; GOP falls after spike

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold.

60 40 District Democratic Battleground Republican Districts Democratic Tier 1 Democratic Tier 2

55.1 53.9 54.8 55 53.7

54.1 52.3 53.6 52.3 52.9 51.4 51.2 51.7 50.3 50 50.5 49.5

45 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 *Note: From Democracy Corps battleground surveys conducted this year. Shows data from common districts over the course of the year. Data reflects MEAN favorability score. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 27 Dem. Incumbent on constituent’s side, but split on values

Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For Well – each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes (HOUSE INCUBMENT) very well, well, not too well or not well at all Not Well Not well at all Very well

Fights for people here 37 15 21 51 +14

On your side 4321 16 46 +3

Shares your values 4521 15 44 -1

Supports too much 3714 26 50 government spending +13

Will raise my taxes 3816 27 48 +10

Puts party in Washington 15 24 ahead of people here 40 46 +6

Too liberal 4214 24 46 +4 *Note: Those circled in red emerged as top drivers of the vote in our statistical regression 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 modeling. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 28 Some big differences between the Democratic tiers

Tier 1 4319 16 46 +3 Shares your values Tier 2 4723 15 42 -5

Tier 1 3616 26 51 +15 Supports too much government spending Tier 2 3811 26 48 +10

Tier 1 4116 25 46 +4 Will raise my taxes Tier 2 3416 30 51 +17

Tier 1 4514 25 45 0 Too liberal Tier 2 3914 23 47 +8

75 50 25 0 25 50 75 October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 29 Key Democratic positives falling in top 40 districts

Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For Shift in each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes (HOUSE INCUBMENT) very well, well, not too well or not well at all Total Well Not well at all Very well

Oct. 4421 16 46 On your side -5 July 3112 20 51

Oct. 4521 15 44 Shares your values -3 July 3616 16 47

Oct. 4314 24 45 Too liberal +11 July 4216 16 34

Oct. 3816 27 48 Will raise my taxes +2 July 3211 25 46

75 50 25 0 25 50 75 October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 30 Republican incumbents fight for constituents, share their values

Fights for people here 3619 22 50 +14

Shares your values 3819 21 50 +12

On your side 3920 18 47 +8

Too conservative 4517 20 44 -1

For the wealthy, big business 4218 16 38 not middle class -4 Puts party in Washington 15 20 ahead of people here 44 38 -6

Not offering new ideas to fix 5022 13 35 country’s problems -15

75 50 25 0 25 50 75 October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 31 Republican incumbents fare better than competitive Dems

Dem Districts 37 15 21 51 +14 Fights for people here Rep Districts 3619 22 50 +14

Dem Districts 4321 16 46 +3 On your side Rep Districts 3920 18 47 +8

Dem Districts 4521 15 44 -1 Shares your values Rep Districts 3819 21 50 +12

Dem Districts 4015 24 46 +6 Puts party in Washington ahead of people here Rep Districts 44 15 20 38 -6 *Note: Actual names of “house incumbents” were inserted. 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 32

President Obama

Page 32 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 33 Obama favorability dips below 50 in Dem top 40; still warm in GOP

Cool Warm

Democratic Districts 44 47 49.6 +3

Democratic Tier 1 46 45 48.2 -1

Democratic Tier 2 41 48 50.9 +7

Republican Districts 42 50 51.5 +8

75 50 25 0 25 50 75 October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 34

Obama approval split in competitive districts

Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Barack Obama as president?

Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove

49 49 50 49 51 48 46 48 47 43 44 41 38 37 37 34 32 31 33 31

Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Democratic Dem. Tier 1 Dem. Tier 2 Republican National* Districts Districts

*Note: National data from Democracy Corps survey of 1,200 2008 voters nationwide conducted September 12-16, 2009. Data reflects results from 1,044 likely 2010 voters. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 35

Obama’s approval sees some decline overall

Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Barack Obama as president?

Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove

58 52 49 49 49 49 48 50 45 47 46 47 46 46 42 43 36 40 38 35 36 36 35 32 34 34 32 31 31 30 29 31

Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove JulyOctober July October July October July October Democratic DistrictsDem. Tier 1 Dem. Tier 2 Republican Districts

*Note: Shows only the common districts between the October and July surveys. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 36 Obama and Democrats still dealing with inherited problems

First Statement: President Obama and the Second Statement: President Obama and the Democrats are mainly dealing with problems they Democrats are mainly dealing with problems of inherited. their own creation.

First statement strongly Second statement strongly +18 +16 +20 +19

56 56 56 57

40 51 49 38 47 36 48 38 35 33 30 32

Problems Problems of Problems Problems of Problems Problems of Problems Problems of inherited own creation inherited own creation inherited own creation inherited own creation Democratic Democratic Democratic Republican Districts Tier 1 Tier 2 Districts October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 37 Problems still inherited, but voters less certain in GOP districts

First statement strongly Second statement strongly +21 +16 +36 +19 64 56 55 57 52 50 35 49 39 48 38 28 34 28 32 22

Problems Problems of Problems Problems of Problems Problems of Problems Problems of inherited own creation inherited own creation inherited own creation inherited own creation

July October July October Democratic Districts Republican Districts

*Note: Shows only the common districts between the October and July surveys. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 38

The parties

Page 38 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 39

Little difference on social issues, but Reps hold on spending, taxes

Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me Dems – whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item. Reps Republicans much better Democrats much better Dem Districts 4018 25 43 +3 Medicare Rep Districts 3520 27 46 +11 Dem Districts 4331 31 44 +1 Health care Rep Districts 4529 29 44 -1

Dem Districts 4627 23 42 The economy -4 Rep Districts 4425 26 43 -1 Dem Districts 4729 19 38 -9 The budget deficit Rep Districts 4327 28 39 -4

Dem Districts 4725 19 37 -10 Government spending Rep Districts 4927 18 35 -14

Dem Districts 4930 20 37 Taxes -12 Rep Districts -13 *Note: Those circled in red emerged as top 5131 23 38 drivers of the vote in our statistical regression modeling. 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 40 Little shift on issues since summer in Democratic battleground

Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me Change in whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. If you do Dem - Rep not know, just tell me and we will move on to the next item. Republicans much better Democrats much better

Oct. 4627 23 42 The economy +2 July 4424 24 40

Oct. 4725 19 37 Government spending +2 July 4831 16 35

Oct. 4728 19 38 The budget deficit +1 July 4425 20 37

Oct. 4331 31 44 Health care +1 July 4126 30 43

Oct. 5030 20 37 Taxes 0 July 5031 16 37

*Note: Shows only the common districts between the October and July surveys. 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 41 Big shift against Dems on health care, economy in GOP-held districts

Oct. 5232 23 38 Taxes +2 July 5126 14 35

Oct. 4227 28 39 The budget deficit -6 July 3921 20 42

Oct. 4928 18 34 Government spending -8 July 4321 13 36

Oct. 4529 28 43 Health Care -16 July 3719 37 51

Oct. 4424 26 42 The economy -16 July 3618 20 50

*Note: Shows only the common districts between the October and July surveys. 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 42 Parties and Congress equally unpopular in battleground

Cool Warm

Dem. Districts 49 37 43.4 -12 Democratic Party Rep. Districts 45 40 45.7 -5

Dem. Districts 49 35 41.1 -14 The Democratic Congress Rep. Districts 49 34 41.4 -15

Dem. Districts 45 32 43.8 -13 Republican Party Rep. Districts 47 31 42.9 -16

Dem. Districts 46 30 42.6 -16 Republicans in Congress Rep. Districts 48 28 40.7 -20

60 40 20 0 20 40 60 October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 43 Dems’ image weakened, but no increase in favorability for Reps

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred Therm. Warm - meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Mean Cool Cool Warm Oct. 49 37 43.4 -12 Dem. Districts July 45 40 46.5 -5 Oct. 42.6 -13 Dem. Tier 1 50 37 Democratic July 45 40 46.3 -5 Party Oct. 48 37 44.3 -11 Dem. Tier 2 July 44 40 46.7 -4 Oct. 45.9 -5 GOP Districts 45 40 July 40 43 49.0 +3 Oct. 45 31 43.7 -14 Dem. Districts July 43 35 45.0 -8 Oct. 46 32 44.0 -14 Dem. Tier 1 Republican July 42 35 44.6 -7 Party Oct. 44 30 43.4 -14 Dem. Tier 2 July 43 35 45.3 -8 Oct. 43.1 -14 GOP Districts 45 31 July 46 32 44.2 -14 *Note: Shows only the common districts between the October and July surveys. 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 44

The economy

Page 44 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 45 Voters very divided on the path, position of the economy

Now, thinking about the nation’s economy, do you believe the economy has already bottomed out and is starting to improve, is at the bottom but is not yet getting any better or has not yet bottomed out and will still get worse?

39 36 35 34 32 34 30 31 30 30 30 28

Starting to At bottom, Will still get Starting to At bottom, Will still get Starting to At bottom, Will still get Starting to At bottom, Will still get improve not getting worse improve not getting worse improve not getting worse improve not getting worse better better better better Democratic Democratic Democratic Republican Districts Tier 1 Tier 2 Districts October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 46 Voters split on if Obama’s policies averted a worse crisis

First Statement: President Obama's economic Second Statement: President Obama's policies helped avert an even worse crisis, and economic policies have run up a record federal are laying the foundation for our eventual deficit while failing to end the recession or slow economic recovery. the record pace of job losses.

First statement strongly Second statement strongly +3 +9 +2 +1

49 52 46 43 49 47 46 47

42 44 40 37 35 3936 39

Helped avert a Have run up Helped avert a Have run up Helped avert a Have run up Helped avert a Have run up worse crisis deficit, failed worse crisis deficit, failed worse crisis deficit, failed worse crisis deficit, failed

Democratic Democratic Democratic Republican Districts Tier 1 Tier 2 Districts October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 47 Voters split on effect of stimulus

Now let me ask you about the economic recovery plan, also known as the stimulus package, that was passed by Congress and became law. In your opinion, do you feel that the economic recovery plan is starting to have a positive impact on the economy, will eventually have a positive impact on the economy but has not yet, will not have any real impact on the economy or do you feel that the economic recovery plan is hurting the economy? Starting to have positive impact Will eventually have positive impact Will not have any real impact Is hurting economy Having/Will Having/Will Having/Will Having/Will Have Positive Have Positive Have Positive Have Positive Impact: 46 Impact: 43 Impact: 49 Impact: 48

31 30 29 2827 28 25 23 21 21 20 20 20 21 21 20

Democratic Democratic Democratic Republican Districts Tier 1 Tier 2 Districts October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 48

Rebalancing economy, middle class convincing economic arguments

Protected middle class by extending health care and unemployment, and cutting taxes 26 56

Working to rebalance the economy to work for 26 54 middle class so wealthy pay fair share

Economy was too reliant on financial bubbles; 21 must change for true long-term growth 53

Actions have stemmed job losses, but cannot rest 20 53 until economy producing high quality jobs

Have averted the worst and now fixing the broken 17 49 system to help middle class, small business

Decisive action pulled economy back from the brink 16 43

0255075 October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 49 Rebalancing economy, protecting middle class top arguments

Now I'm going to read you some things that Democrats might say about the economy, after each one please tell me if you find the statement to be very convincing, somewhat convincing, just a little convincing, or not at all convincing. Protected middle class by Working to rebalance Very Convincing Very Convincing extending benefits the economy to work for middle class We inherited an economy that has left far too many Even before the financial Americans struggling to crisis the economy wasn't working for too many make ends meet, so we are 56 acting to help them get middle class Americans. 54 through this crisis by That's why we are working extending unemployment to rebalance the economy and health care benefits to to make sure it works for Americans who lost their regular Americans by jobs, cutting taxes for 95 asking the very wealthy percent of working families, 26 and big corporations to pay 26 and preventing thousands their fair share while cutting of police officers, teachers taxes and reducing health and firefighters from being care costs for working laid off. And as we move families and small businesses and creating forward we are working to Total Total quality, middle class jobs in make sure that the Convincing Convincing economy starts to create alternative energy. new jobs again as it begins to pull out of this recession. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 50 Long-term growth and curbing job loses also key

Now I'm going to read you some things that Democrats might say about the economy, after each one please tell me if you find the statement to be very convincing, somewhat convincing, just a little convincing, or not at all convincing. Changing from bubble Actions stemmed job Very Convincing Very Convincing economy to one for true losses, now building long-term growth stronger The financial crisis showed When President Obama that our economy was too was sworn in, almost 750 reliant on unsustainable thousand Americans were financial bubbles. We are 53 losing their job every 53 working to change that and month. The actions we've lay the groundwork for true taken have cut that number long-term prosperity by by two-thirds, so we've reforming health care to made progress in bring down costs for stemming the loss of jobs. business and consumers But we are not satisfied and making America the 21 and a jobless recovery isn't 20 leader in alternative energy good enough for us or the like wind and solar so the American people; that is jobs and industries of the why we won't stop fighting future are built right here, Total until our economy is once Total not in China or India. Convincing again creating high quality Convincing jobs. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 51 Talk about economy back from the brink falls flat

Now I'm going to read you some things that Democrats might say about the economy, after each one please tell me if you find the statement to be very convincing, somewhat convincing, just a little convincing, or not at all convincing. Averted the worst, now Decisive action pulled Very Convincing Very Convincing fixing the broken system economy back from the to help middle class brink Last year our economy was This past winter our nation on the verge of collapse so was facing the worst we had to make the tough economic crisis since the choices and act, even Great Depression, 700,000 though we knew it would 49 jobs were being lost per be unpopular because it month and our financial 43 would help Wall Street. system was on the verge of Now that we've averted the collapse. We still have a worst, we're working to fix long way to go and we will this broken system so it not rest until those rewards the hard work of Americans who seek jobs middle class Americans 17 can find them, but thanks to 16 and small businesses that the bold and decisive play by the rules instead of actions we have taken since January, we have the big bankers that Total Total abused the system to get pulled this economy back Convincing Convincing ahead. from the brink. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 52 Wasteful spending, bailout argument carry weight against Dems

Democrats have approved 5 trillion in wasteful, 32 irresponsible spending that undermines economy 58

Democrats more concerned with helping out Wall Street, not Main Street 28 55

Democrats said spending would create jobs, but unemployment still rising 35 53

Democrats’ only solution to severe recession is greater government control, socialism 33 52

0255075 October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 53 Wasteful spending and bailouts are strong attacks against Dems

Now I'm going to read you some things that Republicans might say about the economy, after each one please tell me if you find the statement to be very convincing, somewhat convincing, just a little convincing, or not at all convincing. 5 trillion in wasteful, Democrats helping Wall Very Convincing Very Convincing irresponsible spending Street, not Main Street that undermines economy Democrats in Congress The Democrats in have approved 5 trillion Congress are more dollars in spending this 58 interested in bailing out year alone, adding over a 55 Detroit, Wall Street and the trillion dollars to our deficit housing industry with that will leave mountains of taxpayers' dollars than they debt for our grandchildren are in helping regular to pay back, money that Americans during these America is borrowing from 32 difficult times. Democrats China and the Middle East. 28 even let insurance giant This irresponsible, wasteful AIG use taxpayer dollars to spending undermines our give millions in bonuses to economic stability by its top executives. It's time forcing us to rely on hostile Democrats start helping out foreign governments to Total Americans on Main Street, Total lend us money. Convincing not Wall Street. Convincing October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 54 Rising unemployment, socialism also potent

Now I'm going to read you some things that Republicans might say about the economy, after each one please tell me if you find the statement to be very convincing, somewhat convincing, just a little convincing, or not at all convincing. Dems said spending Democrats’ only solution Very Convincing Very Convincing would create jobs, but is greater government unemployment still rising control, socialism The Democrats said all of Our economy is in a severe their spending would create recession but the jobs, but their trillion-dollar Democrats only solution is stimulus plan, four-trillion- 53 greater government control. 52 dollar budget and The federal government government bailouts have runs General Motors and created more debt than at has nationalized several any other time in our banks. Democrats say history and yet 35 they're doing what it takes 33 unemployment is still rising to get our economy back and will soon top 10 on track but what they're percent. And they want to really doing is pushing us pay for all of this by making on a path toward socialism, middle class Americans increasing the size of our pay higher taxes on federal government to Total Total everything from energy to levels only seen in health care. Convincing European countries. Convincing October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 55

Democratic Tier 3

Page 55 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 56

Tier 3 incumbents hold double-digit margin but don’t crack 50

Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate

Dem. +3 Dem. +3 Dem. +12

47 48 50 44 45 46 43 44 38 39 41 34

Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democratic Tier 1 Democratic Tier 2 Democratic Tier 3

Democrat Not Democrat 33

20 17 9 9 6 3 2

Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable

Republican Not Republican 33

18 19 14 3 3 5 6

Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable

*Note: Any note needed enter here or delete if unneeded October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 58

Despite vote lead still only 43 percent reelect for Tier 3 incumbents

Definitely Reelect Definitely Vote Someone Else Don't Know/Refused/Depends

45 44 43 40 41 39

22 22 19 1416 14 15 15 17

Reelect Someone DK/Ref Reelect Someone DK/Ref Reelect Someone DK/Ref Else Else Else Democratic Tier 1 Democratic Tier 2 Democratic Tier 3

*Note: Actual incumbent’s name inserted. Question not asked in districts where the incumbent has announced they are not running for reelection. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 59

Democratic member job approval: positive but short of 50

Do you approve or disapprove of the way (HOUSE INCUMBENT) is handling his/her job as a member of the U.S. Congress? Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove

47 48 48

33 33 31

22 22 1820 18 19

Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Democratic Tier 1 Democratic Tier 2 Democratic Tier 3

Obama approve/disapprove tied in tier 3

Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Barack Obama as president?

Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove

49 50 46 48 46 47 44 38 36 31 33 26

Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Democratic Tier 1 Democratic Tier 2 Democratic Tier 3

Democratic 30 36 51.2 +6 86 Tier 1 Districts

Democratic 33 35 Tier 2 Districts 49.4 +2 85

Democratic 28 39 53.4 +11 88 Tier 3 Districts

50 25 0 25 50

*Note: Actual names of “house incumbents” were inserted. October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 62 Obama favorability lukewarm in tiers 1 and 3, still warm in tier 2

Cool Warm

Democratic Tier 1 46 45 48.2 -1

Democratic Tier 2 41 48 50.9 +7

Democratic Tier 3 42 45 49.3 +3

75 50 25 0 25 50 75 October 16, 2009October | Page 16, 2009 63

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