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Feingold Dems' Best Shot for Kohl Senate Seat

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Feingold Dems' Best Shot for Kohl Senate Seat FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 24, 2011 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Feingold Dems’ best shot for Kohl Senate seat Raleigh, N.C. – Despite being upset by first-time candidate Ron Johnson last fall, Russ Feingold is poised for a strong comeback to electoral politics in Wisconsin’s other Senate seat, if he chooses to run. With Herb Kohl’s recent retirement announcement, a number of candidates on both sides are considering bids in what could be one of the hottest Senate races in the country, and a tougher one for Democrats to hold than had Kohl run for another term. But while Democrats have a slight upper hand in the early going, no matter their candidate, their strongest choice would be Feingold, particularly against the most well-known Republican, former Governor Tommy Thompson. In February, Kohl was leading any of the Republicans PPP tested against him by seven to 15 points, and in December, led Thompson by nine. Now Thompson tops Rep. Tammy Baldwin by one and former Rep. Steve Kagen by three, and ties Rep. Ron Kind. But Feingold puts him away by ten points, 52-42. Feingold is better liked than Thompson by independents and has better numbers within his own party, so he wins with independents, 49-40, and earns 91% of Democrats’ votes and loses only 5% to Thompson, while taking 8% of Republicans and keeping Thompson at 87%. Feingold and Thompson are the heavy-hitters at the outset of this formative open-seat race, both known by well over 80% of voters, better than the 57% who have an opinion of Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen, 53% of former Rep. Mark Neumann, Assemblyman Jeff Fitzgerald, and Baldwin, 40% of Kind, and 37% of Kagen. “Russ Feingold’s going to start out as a solid favorite if he wants to go back to the Senate,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “His loss last year had less to do with him than the national political climate and because of Scott Walker’s unpopularity things have shifted back toward the Democrats more quickly in Wisconsin than most other places.” PPP surveyed 1,636 Wisconsin voters from May 19th to 22nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates. Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] Wisconsin Survey Results Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q9 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were of Russ Feingold? Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Jeff Fitzgerald, who would you vote for? Favorable .............. 51% Not sure ................ 11% Tammy Baldwin............................................... 48% Unfavorable........... 38% Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Jeff Fitzgerald ................................................. 37% of Tammy Baldwin? Undecided....................................................... 15% Favorable .............. 27% Not sure ................ 47% Q10 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were 25% Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Unfavorable........... Mark Neumann, who would you vote for? Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeff Fitzgerald? Tammy Baldwin............................................... 46% 41% Favorable .............. 19% Not sure ................ 47% Mark Neumann ............................................... 13% Unfavorable........... 34% Undecided....................................................... Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q11 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were of Steve Kagen? Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for? Favorable .............. 14% Not sure ................ 63% Tammy Baldwin............................................... 44% Unfavorable........... 23% Tommy Thompson .......................................... 45% Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ron Kind? Undecided....................................................... 11% Favorable .............. 22% Not sure ................ 60% Q12 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican JB Unfavorable........... 18% Van Hollen, who would you vote for? Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Tammy Baldwin............................................... 46% of Mark Neumann? JB Van Hollen ................................................. 39% Favorable .............. 27% Not sure ................ 47% Undecided....................................................... 15% Unfavorable........... 26% Q13 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican Jeff of Tommy Thompson? Fitzgerald, who would you vote for? Favorable .............. 42% Not sure ................ 16% Russ Feingold................................................. 54% Unfavorable........... 42% Jeff Fitzgerald ................................................. 39% Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of JB Van Hollen? Undecided....................................................... 7% Favorable .............. 25% Not sure ................ 43% Unfavorable........... 32% May 19-22, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 1,636 Wisconsin voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q14 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Q20 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican Mark Democrat Ron Kind and Republican JB Van Neumann, who would you vote for? Hollen, who would you vote for? Russ Feingold................................................. 53% Ron Kind......................................................... 44% Mark Neumann ............................................... 41% JB Van Hollen ................................................. 38% Undecided....................................................... 6% Undecided....................................................... 17% Q15 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Q21 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican Jeff Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for? Fitzgerald, who would you vote for? Russ Feingold................................................. 52% Steve Kagen ................................................... 43% Tommy Thompson .......................................... 42% Jeff Fitzgerald ................................................. 38% Undecided....................................................... 6% Undecided....................................................... 19% Q16 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Q22 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican JB Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican Mark Van Hollen, who would you vote for? Neumann, who would you vote for? Russ Feingold................................................. 53% Steve Kagen ................................................... 42% JB Van Hollen ................................................. 38% Mark Neumann ............................................... 41% Undecided....................................................... 9% Undecided....................................................... 17% Q17 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Q23 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Democrat Ron Kind and Republican Jeff Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican Fitzgerald, who would you vote for? Tommy Thompson, who would you vote for? Ron Kind......................................................... 45% Steve Kagen ................................................... 42% Jeff Fitzgerald ................................................. 37% Tommy Thompson .......................................... 45% Undecided....................................................... 18% Undecided....................................................... 13% Q18 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Q24 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Democrat Ron Kind and Republican Mark Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican JB Van Neumann, who would you vote for? Hollen, who would you vote for? Ron Kind......................................................... 44% Steve Kagen ................................................... 43% Mark Neumann ............................................... 40% JB Van Hollen ................................................. 38% Undecided....................................................... 16% Undecided....................................................... 19% Q19 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were Q25 Who did you vote for President in 2008? Democrat Ron Kind and Republican Tommy 42% Thompson, who would you vote for? John McCain................................................... Barack Obama................................................ 51% Ron Kind......................................................... 44% Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7% Tommy Thompson .......................................... 44% Undecided......................................................
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